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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 4:25:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/6/44

Coral Sea: Carrier raid in the Coral Sea, as expected.

If the Japanese were able to sever or seriously disrupt the Allied LOC in this region at the right time and under the right circumstances it would affect the war.

But I think this is the wrong time and I don't think John has enough to create an impact that would last long enough to create problems. In fact if I'm reading things right, the Japanese raid and related operations won't have any impact at all on Allied operations anywhere.

The biggest thing is that the big Herd inbound already passed through here weeks ago. And ever since Allied nav search caught wind of enemy carriers departing the Marianas on a SE course, I've been taking precautions lest I get caught with valuable shipping too far forward.

Now, if John is bringing a big invasion force that can take Townsville and points north, I've miscalculated. That's most unlikely, though. Besides, Allied air power alone would make just about any land operations impossible for Japan.

John's carriers may sweep through the Gulf of Carpentaria or down into the New Caledonia region. The latter won't mean anything. The former will mean something if John has another carrier force to act as an anvil near Ceram or if he has enough strength to overwhelm Boela's CAP and combat TF patrols. That's possible but unlikely. I'll watch







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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 4:42:15 PM   
Canoerebel


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Indochina: Saigon falls. Still important mop up left around Cam Ranh Bay, but things are beginning to wind down in this theater.

The forces currently around Hanoi are sufficient to handle that sector. So once the Saigon/Cam Ranh Bay sector is finished, the Allied troops in Southern Indochina will mostly head to Malaya. Many of these units are beginning prep for Kota Bharu or other targets. An amphibious assault to bifurcate enemy defenses in Malaya is likely by early '44 or maybe even late '43.







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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 5:16:35 PM   
Canoerebel


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Fancy Pants: Complicated and tough campaign ongoing. Japanese activity and intentions in the Kukong/Canton areas bears watching; Allies continue to make good progress on the Changsha to Hangchow Front.

Death Star is closing now on Formosa and Coastal China. First reinforcements and supply may begin landing at Amoy tomorrow.

With KB raiding in the Coral Sea, and with Ningpo/Formosa already pretty much self sufficient for security, the Allied carriers aren't as tethered to defense as they used to be.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 5:54:17 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

An amphibious assault to bifurcate enemy defenses in Malaya is likely by early '44 or maybe even late '43.


Minor edit needed here: you're off by a year.

The land campaign in China and SE Asia is shaping up really well. Kudos for both the campaign and the great maps and commentary.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 5:59:05 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It made a difference. Or, I should say, half the state agreed with him. It was a very close thing in Georgia.

Opposed to Secession: Alexander H. Stephens, Benjamin Harvey Hill, Joshua Hill, Herschel Johnson (Stephen Douglas's running mate).

Favoring Secession: Robert Toombs, Francis Bartow, Howell Cobb, Thomas R.R. Cobb.

All of them were nationally known politicians; they were huge in Georgia; today, though, most readers in the Peanut Gallery might know little about them.

P.S. Edited to add this: Ultimately, though, it probably wouldn't have changed the course of events. Had the Georgia Convention resulted in a no vote on January 19, 1861, subsequent events would have prodded Georgia into seceding eventually. That's exactly what happened in Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Arkansas.



Lincoln's call for volunteers pretty much sealed the deal for so many fence sitters. But what did they expect? Just got through reading Jesse James: Last Rebel of the Civil War by T.J. Stiles. Have to say that this may be one of the finest historical studies that I have read in a decade. I highly recommend you read it Dan. It is more about the Civil War in Missouri as much it is about this pivotal player. Lesson learned is that you really have to look at the Civil War not as a four year conflict but as a struggle that started well before 1861 and did not end until reconstruction was destroyed and Southern white voters recaptured the legislatures in the South. Eye opening. One key player is Adebert Ames-one of the heroes of Gettysburg. Who would have thought that he was in the thick of the gunfight in Northfield Minnesota that crushed the James-Younger gang? https://www.amazon.com/Jesse-James-Last-Rebel-Civil/dp/0375705589

_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 6:18:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks, Ross, for the tip. And I still haven't retrieved the book you suggested about the Battle of the Atlantic.

jwolf: I am constantly surprised at the number of typos I introduce into my diagrams. Ack!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 7:21:10 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

jwolf: I am constantly surprised at the number of typos I introduce into my diagrams. Ack!


Add me to that camp.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 7:30:27 PM   
anarchyintheuk

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

If John is, in fact, trying to reinforce his position, he's already throwing good troops away with the bad....

Once you've returned to the area, it would make sense to establish a permanent presence - there shouldn't be a need to have 30+ Carriers in the same hex


quote:


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/22/2017 11:15:56 PM   

witpqs
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Status: online Maybe you should take some very-long range cargo ships (Liberty or Victory come to mind but maybe Victory on account of their speed) filled only with supply and send them west from Hawaii to inside of John's detection range, then pull them back and route them the usual way.

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Imo it's better to wipe your lcus out in China so that you can rebuild them in the homeland than have them sit out the rest of the war wherever they were . . . providing he has the supply/armaments etc. to rebuild them.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 7:33:36 PM   
palioboy2

 

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Status: offline 		Do remember the name of the book?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 7:40:21 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		The Good Shepherd

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 7:54:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Regarding Anarchy's point, he's operating at a level of familiarity and knowledge beyond the sphere of my own. I see where it makes sense to feed LCUs into the China vortex if getting them destroyed there results in them easily being rebuilt in the Home Islands.

Whether John's taken sufficient losses to make rebuilding difficult, I don't know. I just don't have the late-game experience - or the Japanese experience - to judge this.

I wonder if John apprehends a Home Island invasion at this point. Probably so, but he probably is mulling over the possibility that I'll forego the Home Islands.

From my perspective, I want to chew up Japanese LCUs for the points. So having John feed them to me, rather than having to chase them down, makes sense.

LCU score is now Japanese 24.5k, Allies 14.7k. I'm still making good progress, though this (like everything else) pails in efficiency to strategic bombing.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 8:25:11 PM   
GetAssista

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
jwolf: I am constantly surprised at the number of typos I introduce into my diagrams. Ack!

Add me to that camp.

Chill out gents . It will not be far from truth for me to say that you both set a defacto best practice for WITP AARs with your mapmaking. Now I want this kind of maps everywhere and find AARs lacking when without. Can't help.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/25/2017 10:47:50 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		I'm certainly no expert but I think rebuilt units have much lower experience. Also, infantry squads and devices are two entirely different things. He may have plenty of bodies, but the rest of the equipment has to be available too. So that goes to supply, resource, production oil, fuel....the whole economy. Depending on the economy choices may have to be made.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 4:09:10 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
jwolf: I am constantly surprised at the number of typos I introduce into my diagrams. Ack!

Add me to that camp.

Chill out gents . It will not be far from truth for me to say that you both set a defacto best practice for WITP AARs with your mapmaking. Now I want this kind of maps everywhere and find AARs lacking when without. Can't help.


Please, they're just sheep following the ovinomancer.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 4:17:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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IJN Carrier Raid: Enemy carrier raid into the Gulf of Carpentaria. John uses flank speed to catch four empty xAKs. There are other targets in harm's way. But there's nothing really critical out here.

John's idea is a good one - try to impact the critical Allied LOC. So he knows or guesses that supply is key to the Allied war effort, impacts the pace of operations against the Home Islands, and is most vulnerable in the same places it's been most vulnerable since November 1943.

He's worked this plan hard. But it's not going to accomplish anything material unless he's figured out a way to crack the defensive code at Boela so that he can orchestrate a massive strike against shipping there. It's possible he can do so but it's a tough equation for him to solve.

Interesting to watch this play out. The most fun is implementing your own clever plans in the game; the second most fun is thwarting your opponent's clever plan. I trying.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 4:23:04 PM   
Lowpe


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Status: offline 		IF, he used flank speed...well, then you can probably predict his path with close to 100% accuracy over the next few days and most likely thoroughly destroy his carriers should you desire in 3-4 days time.

Unbelievably stupid move if accurate.


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 9/26/2017 4:26:02 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 4:32:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		It's accurate. One of the carrier TF's move 15 hexes; the other moved 17 hexes (compare to map at top of this page).

But I don't think that fixes his course in such a way that I can react. I'd assume he has AOs to handle replenishing. If not, he probably will move to Soerabja or Balikpapan.

But Death Star is north of Formosa now. Would you give chase from that far away to a KB that probably has AO support?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 4:41:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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The comparison to Early's 1864 Maryland Campaign is pretty apt.

Coral Sea: The enemy raiding....and not accomplishing anything worth writing home about.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 4:58:51 PM   
ny59giants


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Status: offline 		Supply, supply, supply - make John use it in combat in China and in rebuilding the destroyed LCUs. Force him to start making choice about where he is going to use it.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 5:00:34 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		12/7/44

Fancy Pants: Supply coming ashore at Formosa and on the final approach to Ningpo. Allies clean out Saigon, take Hanoi and take Kiukiang. I'm consolidating positions while preparing for major campaigns against Cam Ranh Bay, Canton/Kukong/Hong Kong, Changsha, and Hangchow/Shanghai.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 5:18:50 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's accurate. One of the carrier TF's move 15 hexes; the other moved 17 hexes (compare to map at top of this page).

But I don't think that fixes his course in such a way that I can react. I'd assume he has AOs to handle replenishing. If not, he probably will move to Soerabja or Balikpapan.

But Death Star is north of Formosa now. Would you give chase from that far away to a KB that probably has AO support?


Well, you absolutely can't do it your heart isn't in it.

I find it next to impossible to believe you couldn't find the oilers and nail them without KB support in the next day or two.

Where he is there is no sea room, only two ways to go...your deathstar could move south without having to chose either east or west for two days, and by then you know exactly where he will go.

In the meantime you have bled him of aircraft, fed him low point merchants, perhaps raided him with Fletchers and found his oilers. Can you say panic time for Japan? Running low on ammo, sorties, and fuel with your destination a known to the Allies.

You will dispose of the enemy carriers on your terms.

The only reason, I would not destroy him if I had plans to break Honshu air defense, invade Jap Islands, or Korea, or in the Yellow Sea area.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 5:35:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		That's a 45-50 hex journey - say five to six days. You don't think John could figure out a way to avoid Death Star over that period of time?

I do. I think that would be trying to pull an inside straight.

I think DS is better off where she is, where I know I can use her effectively and far more efficiently.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 5:58:37 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

Running low on ammo, sorties, and fuel with your destination a known to the Allies.


Doesn't John have several good bases in the DEI for replenishment? And the KB is closer to them (I think) than is the Allied Death Star.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 6:12:43 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's a 45-50 hex journey - say five to six days. You don't think John could figure out a way to avoid Death Star over that period of time?

I do. I think that would be trying to pull an inside straight.

I think DS is better off where she is, where I know I can use her effectively and far more efficiently.



that's fine too...you are privy to details I am not.

If the KB goes east into the pacific you should nail it.

If the KB goes west you should set yourself up to nail it at a future date. It is in restricted waters with known fueling points and no place to hide. At the very least monitor the airbases he would need to fly fighters from the KB back to Honshu and nail them.

With the KB fighters away from Honshu, the air defenses of Honshu will be very weak. If you want to you can break the back of Honshu fighter defenses rather quickly and is perhaps what you are implying.

You can bombard coastal Honshu air bases almost with impunity, you can sweep with the Deathstar and bomb with beasts all day long.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 6:13:25 PM   
paullus99


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Status: offline 		It's been obvious for quite some time that John's been using the DEI as his base of operations for the KB - because most of those carriers haven't been back to the Home Islands for months.

He's go two options - he's either going to backtrack and head back around NG the long way to the Home Islands (I think this is unlikely), or he'll continue to move along his present course (which takes him back to the DEI anyway).

Either way, he doesn't appear to be accomplishing much of anything.


_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 6:28:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		To Lowpe: Yes, I've been hinting around that Death Star's mission is no longer purely defensive.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 6:29:19 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Either way, he doesn't appear to be accomplishing much of anything.



Burning lots of fuel and asking to be destroyed and weakening the air defenses of Honshu. That is accomplishing a lot.

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 9/26/2017 6:30:06 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 6:29:55 PM   
paullus99


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Status: offline 		Well, there is that.....

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 6:33:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		John sent the turn back but forgot to advance the next turn file. So I've seen the movie but can't examine the board.

KB continued west to a point near Taberfane. From there her strike aircraft sortied and hit a variety of small TFs, sinking a handful of xAK, one damaged xAP and a PF. She didn't get anything meaningful and she used up a lot of sorties. Her strike aircraft engaged moderately-heavy CAP over a TF a few hexes SE of Boela, with neither side scoring heavily I think.

He missed the decent support ship TF that snuck back to Normanton and the supply TF carrying 180k at Townsville. There's 350 ships at Boela, but all the merchantmen there are empties.

At this point I doubt he's going to try to crack the Boela code, at least on this swing through the DEI. That's all that really matters.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 9/26/2017 7:53:44 PM   
jwolf

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
At this point I doubt he's going to try to crack the Boela code, at least on this swing through the DEI. That's all that really matters.


Point granted, though it sure would be nice if you could find a way to swat him. You've used the Death Star defensively for so long, he might get just careless enough to give you an opening. I'm intrigued by your comment that DS is "no longer purely defensive" and hope that brings some Allied fireworks soon.

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