Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: John 3rd

He has never cared about losses.

I plan to ask if he intends to invade. If he does then we fight on waiting to see what happens. If not, then we'll wrap up sometime in Feb-Mar 1945.

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Leyte Gulf was not a bad idea;

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

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ORIGINAL: John 3rd

He has never cared about losses.

I plan to ask if he intends to invade. If he does then we fight on waiting to see what happens. If not, then we'll wrap up sometime in Feb-Mar 1945.

You would ask him that and expect an answer?

Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
https://sites.google.com/site/reluctantadmiral/

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ORIGINAL: Alfred

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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And CR could fight the carriers and still have surface ships left for an anti-supply campaign.

I think john has done more to prosecute the war using the KB to escort fuel and oil back to the home islands. I can't figure out if CR is just not aware, just doesn't care or just doesn't play the late game often but for the life of me I can not understand why thee tankers are running back and forth like the Carnival Cruise Lines. John has pulled back about a million gallons of fuel and oil in the last 6 months in not more and has maybe lost one or two tankers.

The Carnival Cruise line is helping the Allies to win the war more quickly.

1. It is sub optimum play to focus on moving oil and fuel to Japan whilst allowing the front line to be destroyed.

2. It is Nero fiddling whilst Rome burns to allow Japanese industry to fall within range of an Allied strategic air campaign.

3. It is irrelevant to have heavy industry capable of working at full capacity when it is impossible to build airframes because the aircraft and engine factories have been destroyed. Without air cover all the other industrial facilities which are not directly dependent on fuel/oil will, when damaged/destroyed, both yield plentiful VPs and adversely impact the fighting.

Alfred

4. Fuel and oil reserves are of zero value in VP terms.

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

And yet they keep coming up again and again. Belaboring what John probably *should* have done 5-6 months ago in the game and what he should have prioritized then is an example.

AARs are, among other things, archives of gameplay. This one, and his, are widely read. I read both; I don't think you do. His is chock full of woulda coulda shoulda as well. When I talk about what could have been I'm not pinging on John.

Canoerebel has built a lodgement in China that will not be reversed. His Death Star is probably unassailable at this point of the game. Even with a combined LBA/Kami/KB effort and some good die rolls this is probably a moot issue.

I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have. If Japan massed them, fueled for a Full dash in, AND prepared a 500-1000 plane kami strike, Japan could wreck a lot of USN plans. 2:1 VPs. It might tangentially affect the China effort in terms of supply. It might divert USN support for US Army strat bombing of the HI. Slow down the VP train fro a month or two. Give a little breathing room for Japan to mass more fighters east of the strat-bombing "front line", getting ready for B-24s to be in range. A whole host of dominoes. It's a better plan than cruising the DEI plinking LSTs.

Japan is going to lose this game. But how they lose can still be interesting.

Even if John wanted an apocalyptic end-of-times confrontation with the Allied 1.0x10^6, I don't think he'd do more than scratch some paint at this point. Is it worth a try? Maybe. But probably not.

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

We agree on this. The August 31, 1945 line for Allied decisive victory is really important, and something for Japan to strive for. In the rearview this was a reasonable objective back pre-PI.

The operative question is whether the future value of supply for the home islands was worth the past / lost opportunity to stall out the Allied naval juggernaut. I don't know. I think the costs likely incurred in attempting to attack Allied shipping with KB in the DEI some months ago would have been severe with short-lasting benefits.

I don't think he should have attacked Allied shipping in the DEI with the KB either. I think he should have made a stand in the PI, supported by myriad good LBA fields. Held off the front edge of B-29 basing. Delayed or prevented the Formosa operation.

Additionally, bringing some fuel home might have made some sense in some scenarios. But bringing home mass quantities less sense, given he probably won't have the months he needs to shove it through dwindling HI factories under firebombing attack.

Morale effects on CR? Not hardly. He's hardly a shrinking violet in the face of crippling digital losses. He would have found a way to spin it as a victory, whether Pyrrhic or otherwise in reality.

It's interesting reading both sides and seeing the differing emphasis in each. Things one side thinks are determinative aren't mentioned in the other. CR is a planner, yes. He is methodical. He likes massive elephant-like campaigns. (And he constantly compares an amphibious naval campaign in mid-20th C. to Civil War battles, which I never understand.) When you play the Allies in the late game some of that is inevitable given the OOB you're given and the timetable you must keep. But you can't speed up prep, and you must have prep to land. You must have your true amphibs; xAPs don't suffice. And you must have air cover in the kami era. We can disagree how much CR would have been shaken by a 15-carrier loss battle (sunk or mission killed.) But he would have been affected.

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

And yet they keep coming up again and again. Belaboring what John probably *should* have done 5-6 months ago in the game and what he should have prioritized then is an example.

Canoerebel has built a lodgement in China that will not be reversed. His Death Star is probably unassailable at this point of the game. Even with a combined LBA/Kami/KB effort and some good die rolls this is probably a moot issue. Even if John wanted an apocalyptic end-of-times confrontation with the Allied 1.0x10^6, I don't think he'd do more than scratch some paint at this point. Is it worth a try? Maybe. But probably not.

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

The operative question is whether the future value of supply for the home islands was worth the past / lost opportunity to stall out the Allied naval juggernaut. I don't know. I think the costs likely incurred in attempting to attack Allied shipping with KB in the DEI some months ago would have been severe with short-lasting benefits.

Morale effects on CR? Not hardly. He's hardly a shrinking violet in the face of crippling digital losses. He would have found a way to spin it as a victory, whether Pyrrhic or otherwise in reality.

Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
https://sites.google.com/site/reluctantadmiral/

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have.

I haven't looked into it at all... John posted this, and I am parroting him.

To fight the deathstar, you need to prepare first. I don't think John was ever prepared at any point to fight the deathstar, even obliquely, even now.

Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.

Reluctant Admiral Mod:
https://sites.google.com/site/reluctantadmiral/

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't think so. Lowpe stated that Japan here has 19 carriers left. I don't know that myself, but I accept Lowpe has looked into it more than I have.

I haven't looked into it at all... John posted this, and I am parroting him.

To fight the deathstar, you need to prepare first. I don't think John was ever prepared at any point to fight the deathstar, even obliquely, even now.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
You are correct about sunk costs. That topic is worth discussing for readers. At this point, in this game, they're moot given the meaning of the term.

And yet they keep coming up again and again. Belaboring what John probably *should* have done 5-6 months ago in the game and what he should have prioritized then is an example.

Canoerebel has built a lodgement in China that will not be reversed. His Death Star is probably unassailable at this point of the game. Even with a combined LBA/Kami/KB effort and some good die rolls this is probably a moot issue. Even if John wanted an apocalyptic end-of-times confrontation with the Allied 1.0x10^6, I don't think he'd do more than scratch some paint at this point. Is it worth a try? Maybe. But probably not.

This game took a turn for the odd a while ago. Two different people playing two different games, irrespective of what their opponent was doing.

The operative question is whether the future value of supply for the home islands was worth the past / lost opportunity to stall out the Allied naval juggernaut. I don't know. I think the costs likely incurred in attempting to attack Allied shipping with KB in the DEI some months ago would have been severe with short-lasting benefits.

Morale effects on CR? Not hardly. He's hardly a shrinking violet in the face of crippling digital losses. He would have found a way to spin it as a victory, whether Pyrrhic or otherwise in reality.

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ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I did a one end-to-the-other end check of the map and here is what remains of the Kaigun:

KB-1
Akagi, Amagi (instead of Kaga), Hiryu, Soryu, Aso, and Amagi
2 CA, 4 CL, and 6 DD 306 Planes

KB-2
Shokaku, Renkaku, Taikaku, Ryukaku, Unryu, Katsuragi, Kasigi, and Ikoma
4 CA and 6 DD 510 Planes

KB-1/2 will join tomorrow and we'll balance out the CVs some.

KB-3
Junyo and CVLs Shoho, Ryuho, Rhujo, Ibuki, Kurama
2 CA and 6 DD 242 Planes

CTF Total: 1,058 Planes

STF-1
Musashi, BC Ikoma, and 6 DD

STF-2
Ise, Nagato, and 7 DD

STF-3
Kirishima and Haruna (both damaged in Home Islands), 1 CA, and 5 DD


There are 31 I-Boats and 2 Ro-Class left

Total Combatants Left:
15 CV
4 CVL
3 BB
3 BC
9 CA
4 CL
35 DD


NOTES ON CVs:
This version of RA, as stated many times, is not at all what the Mods are presently. In BTS, BTSL, and RA there are now ZERO Unryu-Class CVs. It settles into 6 Shokaku-KAI Class and 3 CVL for the building program as well as allowing two CAV to convert over to a variant of the Hiryu-Class.

Pre-War CV Present in December 1944: Shokaku, Akagi, Amagi, Hiryu, Soryu, Ryujo, Ryuho, and Shoho
Shokaku-KAI: Taikaku, Ryukaku, and Renkaku
Unryu-Class: Aso, Amagi, Unryu, Katsuragi, Kasigi, and Ikoma
Ibuki-Class CVL: Ibuki and Kurama

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ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I have a game that I attacked China through Southeast Asia -- forget landing on the ports like CanoeRebel did in this game. . That game was over July 1944. From that experience I can say with confidence it does not matter if the Allies interdict supply. There is enough victory points in China right now given the Allies plus to the numerator and IJ minus from the denominator to assure victory. In fact, I would propose the Allies risking a CV exchange would be fool hardy because the Allies would never get 2:1 exchange to balance out the victory points. I suspect from my previous experience that China will collapse soon, and this game will be over. But I read the AAR's to learn something new everyday :)

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ORIGINAL: John 3rd

If there was to be any fight like detailed above, I would prefer to fly off ALL KB's planes and send the empty carriers up to the Kuriles where they could simply sit and NOT become victory points.

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ORIGINAL: Crackaces

The Allies simply use the multiple high level airfields to launch corrdinatied air raids that gain strategic points on the home islands at this point. Maybe take the rest of China. I don’t understand the 50% devices discussion and the effects on difficulty? I do think at some critical point supply will run out on the mainland.,and there is for example 8,000 plus CV in Manchuria to harvest along with the cities once that point is reached. If the Allies eliminate enough garrison to trigger the Russians things will become malignant.

Anyway that was my experience a lot of resistance and then the IJ could not keep supplies flowing given the pace of combat.

So given this environment a CV exchange might be the only way to increase the denominator in this equation....

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One other element to think about is that this Mod has high garrison costs for either side.

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

To parrot Michael, what are your Command HQ's Prepped for?

Did you move General Defense out of Tokyo?

It is impressive, to me at least, that there isn't a single yellow or red exclamation point in all of China.

Shanghai falling in less than a week is a bitter pill to swallow. I would contemplate railing in troops and trying to hold longer, even if you have to suffer partisan attacks elsewhere.

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ORIGINAL: John 3rd

AV is 2,300 Forts-6 Some supply but not much (3,000+).

Biggest problem is about 200+ bombers hitting it each turn and now he is running 2-3 Bombardment TFs each day into it. YES: There is CD and mines present but they have not done much. It is the Bombardment TFs that will turn the tide quickly...