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RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet)

 
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RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 6:14:38 PM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		Historical losses for the USSR in 3rd quarter 1941 according to Wikipedia were 2.1 million. So I'm a little ahead of historical but there are four turns left to go before September.

(in reply to thedoctorking)
Post #: 31
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 6:24:23 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 3858
Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

Historical losses for the USSR in 3rd quarter 1941 according to Wikipedia were 2.1 million. So I'm a little ahead of historical but there are four turns left to go before September.


I might propose that he key is not historical results but parking 3 Guards XXX in Berlin right around May 1945 .. as long as your indices follow that pattern I say your good!

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"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"

(in reply to thedoctorking)
Post #: 32
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 6:29:23 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


Posts: 6987
Joined: 2/5/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tyronec

quote:

Aircraft losses were 467 total for Axis of which 207 were fighters; Soviet air losses were 7,112.


Almost the same in my game, 470 inc 237 fighters for 8543 - think my extra soviet kills came on T1. Perhaps this is the new norm with aggressive Soviet tactics.


I see the "numerous" German CAP missions as the source of the aggressiveness. The Soviets just continue the game into their turn since imho the Soviets can take the loses where the Germans can not for too long or suffer a lack of fighters in later turns. On top of this fact the Germans now fly both day and night missions. So the Soviets would run their gambit of CAP missions drawing out the Germans by day. Then begins the Night bombing which will normally be intercepted by fatigued fighters from the previous Soviet CAP runs. This is where the Soviets will get their fighter kills in Aircraft but will take lots of level bombers loses even at night against this setting. But imho worth it.

Personally I play the Germans differently on fighter aircraft. I don't go ballz to the wall German CAP missions. You can accomplish like results with a different set up that favors the Germans in the Quality winning over Quantity war. Again I'm not knocking anyones play style and love seeing the different styles play out. The Germans just need to understand that the longer they can keep the Soviet Air Exp and Morale low the better.



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Post #: 33
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 6:32:42 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


Posts: 6987
Joined: 2/5/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

Aaaaand again. It would be really nice if the dear dear company could upgrade their forum software...

....................

On the southern front, German armor is again pushing straight for the big city. Surprisingly little action to the south where the big factory complexes are. So far, I have been able to evacuate all factories other than those in Minsk to the east. I did manage a little counter-attack in this area, taking advantage of my large armored reserve to cut off two German armored divisions in the area south of Zhitomir. As in the north, I’m looking forward to getting the Germans into hand-to-hand fighting for heavily fortified cities.








I LOVE the pictures! Thank you for posting them.

The South looks pretty secure :). You should have no problem getting industry out.

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Post #: 34
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 6:35:06 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		This is the ground loss report for the end of Turn 8.

Yes, definitely Axis armor losses are quite high and I attribute that to A) I have been pushing the panzers very hard from start with no let up, no down time as of yet and B) the incredibly fierce fighting in AGS area resulting from the Soviet's very strong forward defensive posture there. And kudos to thedoctorking for isolating various panzer divisions serveral times.

The Turn 7 slowdown in AGC actually resulted from fuel shortages for 2PG and 3PG and the need to finish clearing the Vitebsk area pocket. Likewise, fuel shortages caused a slowdown in the advance against Leningrad as well.

Getting the panzers the opportunity for refit has become critical.

thedoctorking has begun to discern what my strategy in the far south has been: note how the Soviet southern defensive line is beginning to deform; I saw no reason to be offensive in this area as yet, especially given the difficulty I have had pushing to Kiev. Soon enough the far south will look more to my liking.




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< Message edited by Twigster -- 11/21/2017 6:55:21 PM >

(in reply to thedoctorking)
Post #: 35
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 6:39:23 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		Air losses for end of Turn 8.





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< Message edited by Twigster -- 11/21/2017 6:41:32 PM >

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Post #: 36
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 7:04:51 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		Turn 8

The battle for Leningrad proper begins in earnest. The units garrisoning Pushkin and the divisions immediately southwest of Pushkin both withstood heavy bombing and several attacks to dislodge them- not an auspicious beginning. Defending units in Leningrad itself also suffered air attacks; no bombing of the city has taken place as of yet.




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Post #: 37
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 7:16:33 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		AGC, Smolensk area. Axis highlights this week were the taking of Smolensk and getting the infantry fully pursuing eastward. Again this turn, not enough MPs for the panzers to do very much.




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Post #: 38
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 7:18:29 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		Area around Velikie Luki.




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Post #: 39
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 7:20:58 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		NOT cutting off Soviet forces in the eastern Marshes has been a major failure for the Axis.




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Post #: 40
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 7:25:30 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		Kiev.

Finally getting to the city, 1PG makes an attempt (an admitted long-shot) to be in a position to cut off some units in the Marshes. The idea behind this attack is to isolate Kiev from reinforcement as much as possible and to push some armor east of the Dnepr and to threaten the Soviet right (north) flank.




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Post #: 41
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 7:30:01 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		The far south of the line. I realized early on that with the Turn 1 of this game, and the Soviet forward defense, I had no chance of effectively damaging the industrial areas before factories could be moved.




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Post #: 42
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 7:33:32 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		The Finnish front.




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Post #: 43
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 8:14:10 PM   
SparkleyTits

 

Posts: 898
Joined: 10/7/2016
From: England
Status: offline 		The north is nice man good job there he got too confident in keeping your push under control and now has a lot of his forces dislodged there and without Shissleburg being prepared to fortify he could well of blown his chances at holding Leningrad now if you seize the opportunity, Good job!!

I think your decision to cut his forces into two in AGS to stop reinforcements of the Dnepr was a good call under the circumstances as the swamps aren't the easiest things to perform an orderly retreat to a secure new line on the Dnepr while being dislodged. Although it might not translate as well as you had hoped into Doctorkings next turn depending on what he does as with his industry being so safe he can likely sacrifice rail capacity to defend any hot spots as needed and you unfortunately falling short of 2 hexes to making him walk over 2 major rivers to retreat

Nice AAR though and a very enjoyable read, keep up the good work both of you!


(in reply to Twigster)
Post #: 44
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 9:26:44 PM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		Got two divisions and three sapper regiments in the Shissleburg hex with a level 2 fort. I'm pretty confident.

I notice that sapper regiments only have a construction value of 2, though. Odd.

(in reply to SparkleyTits)
Post #: 45
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/21/2017 11:33:45 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		One thing is for sure- you don't have to worry about losing 2.1 million by the end of Q3!

< Message edited by Twigster -- 11/22/2017 12:58:33 AM >

(in reply to thedoctorking)
Post #: 46
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/22/2017 7:17:39 AM   
Stelteck

 

Posts: 1376
Joined: 7/20/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

Got two divisions and three sapper regiments in the Shissleburg hex with a level 2 fort. I'm pretty confident.

I notice that sapper regiments only have a construction value of 2, though. Odd.


It is probably because it is untrained sapper regiment. They have far better value once 45 morale 45 XP.

< Message edited by Stelteck -- 11/22/2017 7:49:53 AM >

(in reply to thedoctorking)
Post #: 47
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/22/2017 10:10:21 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		Some thoughts:

I've had the time to evaluate the overall situation; generally things are looking fairly good.

In the north, once Leningrad falls there are not sufficient enemy forces in AGN area to prevent the Axis from getting to the planned winter stop line- and then some. Recent operates demonstrate that the Luftwaffe now has near-total command of the skies over the AGN area. It is extremely unlikely that the Reds can shift enough to the north to change that calculus without seriously weakening other imperiled sectors.

AGC: here as well, the OPFOR has been sufficiently weakened that, even though Axis advance has been slowed (admittedly to the point that it is not expected to reach pre-planned stop line) nearly all major objectives should be reached before the mud hits.The acceptable trade-off is that Soviet forces that have slowed the advance are seriously beaten-up and now that the major hardpoints have been cleared rate of advance will increase- MPs of the mobile units being more the limiting factor than anything else. Here, enemy airpower is far more in evidence and is making its presence felt to be sure.

AGS: walking through deep mud- very slow and exhausting but worth the effort upon reaching the other side. Many, many Soviet units peacefully watched large stretches of the line in the south when they could have been more productively employed elsewhere. The heaviest fighting has been in this area by far, but 1PG will soon reduce the Kiev strongpoint and there is no doubt that what will follow will be satisfactory. As in AGC's area, attainment of original objectives is in some question so OKH is more flexible here than elsewhere.

Very pleased with the overall performance of the LW, which has been greatly stressed. I am confident going forward, not looking forward to the winter but I know what must be done. There are still some logistical issues to deal with. In short, it has so far been a great learning experience and good fun.

< Message edited by Twigster -- 11/22/2017 10:12:29 PM >

(in reply to Stelteck)
Post #: 48
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/22/2017 11:37:02 PM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 514
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline 		Would either of you be able to post the numbers from the OOB screen? Just eyeballing the screenshots my feeling is that the Germans need to start making some pockets and fast to get the Soviet OOB down, otherwise things could get really ugly in winter with full blizzard and soviet +1.

(in reply to Twigster)
Post #: 49
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/22/2017 11:44:17 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		If thedoctorking does not post it I will when I get the turn back.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 50
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/23/2017 12:09:55 AM   
Sammy5IsAlive

 

Posts: 514
Joined: 8/4/2014
Status: offline 		Nice one mate :). How are you using your HQBUs? Just looking at your screenshot in Post 41 showing the situation with AGS - you've got your rail-line fairly close, all of your infantry caught up, 150 admin points, your opponent deployed a long way W. of the Dnepr and what looks like 2 Pz Corps ready to go. With a HQBU you could have been round the back of him, potentially have a big pocket and at least have dislocated his defense in the South.

(in reply to Twigster)
Post #: 51
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/23/2017 1:02:44 AM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		Hi. Keep in mind that I have really only just broken through to a point where that is possible, and my focus really has been on Kiev.

I have used HQBUs in AGC to good effect so I definitely understand where you are coming from. I was a bit thrown by the magnitude of the forward defense in the AGS area.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 52
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/23/2017 1:13:50 AM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Would either of you be able to post the numbers from the OOB screen? Just eyeballing the screenshots my feeling is that the Germans need to start making some pockets and fast to get the Soviet OOB down, otherwise things could get really ugly in winter with full blizzard and soviet +1.


I hear you on that. I frankly was until recently unsure how I was going to handle the south after I botched the opening attack with AGS. I have begun giving some serious thought on how I am going to deal with the Blizzard too.

(in reply to Sammy5IsAlive)
Post #: 53
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/23/2017 6:23:03 AM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		Here's the OOB screen. I'm taking a break of a couple of days for the Thanksgiving holiday. Been cooking most of the day.






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Post #: 54
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/23/2017 6:23:51 AM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		This is frustrating! How the heck do I delete a post?

< Message edited by thedoctorking -- 11/23/2017 6:26:11 AM >

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Post #: 55
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/23/2017 7:41:48 PM   
HardLuckYetAgain


Posts: 6987
Joined: 2/5/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Twigster


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Would either of you be able to post the numbers from the OOB screen? Just eyeballing the screenshots my feeling is that the Germans need to start making some pockets and fast to get the Soviet OOB down, otherwise things could get really ugly in winter with full blizzard and soviet +1.


I hear you on that. I frankly was until recently unsure how I was going to handle the south after I botched the opening attack with AGS. I have begun giving some serious thought on how I am going to deal with the Blizzard too.


ewwwwwwww, +1 & Full blizzard can be painful in the right hands :(

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Post #: 56
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/24/2017 5:46:10 PM   
Twigster

 

Posts: 1023
Joined: 1/13/2015
Status: offline 		I have been interested in getting an objective read on the difference in outcome between an aggressively forward-defending Soviet and a Soviet strategy of trading space for time. We now have posted losses from the same time period (end of Soviet Turn 8) so I crunched some numbers and will share what surprises me, what does not and invite others (nearly all of whom will have had far more experience playing the game)to let me know if I am reading things incorrectly. This is not at all intended to be a competitive comparison- I know I need to up my game in terms of skill level.

*Axis permanent manpower losses are 64,575 greater in Twigster's game compared to tyronec's, gun losses are 1,301 greater and and AFV losses are 567 greater. Soviet manpower loses are 91,817 greater, gun losses 1,410 greater, but Soviet AFV losses are 74 greater in Grognard's game

This makes sense to me as a result of the forces engaging in more combat in this game. That said, I hasten to note that the Soviet has conducted fewer than 10 hasty and/or deliberate attacks thus far in Twig's War. Soviet reserve activations have been memorable for me though I can't speak to activation percentages for the Soviets. Tyronec's pocketing has been far more extensive.

*In the air, Twigster's Luftwaffe has lost 35 more planes overall; 12 more fighters and 43 planes more lost in air-to-air combat but lost 10 fewer operational losses than tyronec's Luftwaffe. thedoctorking's Red Air Force has lost 1,221 fewer planes overall but 160 more fighters and 545 more lost in air-to-air combat than Grognards', and and has lost 171 more operational losses.

Twigster and tyronec's air losses are very close though they faced two very different Soviet air strategies. The difference in thedoctorking's and Grognard's overall losses are attributable as per tyronec, i.e. he destroyed more on his Turn 1 attacks. It seems clear that Twigster's LW has conducted more interceptions (as was, I believe, thedoctorking's goal) the question being how much more Fatigued Twigster's LW is over tyronec's.

A big take-away for me is that, judging by these numbers, the respective OOBs should not be numerically too terribly different; being aware of course that Twigster's relative losses are a bit higher than the numbers alone indicate. Even so, to date numerically the Soviet "forward defense" as opposed to "trading space for time" has resulted in a drop in manpower, for example, in the German (not general Axis) OOB of less than 2% (1.85%). I guess time will tell how significant that is.



(in reply to thedoctorking)
Post #: 57
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/24/2017 10:00:00 PM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		German turn 8 saw a continuation of the trends detected in the previous turn, without any dramatic offensives. I can only imagine that the Axis are stocking up on AP’s for a big attack in a future turn. For now, the push towards Leningrad featuring mainly the armored and motorized divisions of that Panzer Group continued. They gained a couple more hexes to the east of the line of hills, almost completely cutting off Leningrad over land. His infantry advanced but did not attack along the Novgorod-Leningrad line. In Northwest Front’s area of operations, very little took place, permitting me to shift an army south to hold the region to the east of Velikie Luki, freeing Reserve and Western Front troops from that sector to move south and garrison the land bridge area.





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Post #: 58
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/24/2017 10:00:58 PM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
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Status: offline 		The Central Front was once again suspiciously quiet. I suspect some fuel shortages have been slowing him down in that area. Nonetheless, he seems to be setting up for another attack. There is a mass of armor around Smolensk that hasn’t moved far for two turns now. A few armored divisions are located to the north, remaining there after the successful offensive on turn 6. An armored corps has redeployed somewhat to the south, more or less east of Mogliev. I suspect that a two-pronged armored offensive to the southeast from Smolensk is in the cards, though a possible alternative approach would be a move up the land bridge directly towards Moscow in keeping with the direct approach that the German high command has favored to this point.

I have three air armies in the vicinity, Reserve, Long Range, and Moscow. I wonder about the efficiency of this setup – perhaps I should merge the two tactical air forces. Moscow Air Army is supposed to be protecting the city against German strategic bombing, but so far I haven’t seen any of that. Of course, his bases are just now getting into fighter range of my cities so perhaps the blitz is coming soon.

Interestingly, there were no German air raids on my air bases this turn. Nevertheless, almost all of the Western Front Air Command’s planes had to be withdrawn to national reserve because of low morale, requiring air transfers of new planes from rearward bases.






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Post #: 59
RE: Twig's War (Twigster Axis, thedoctorking Soviet) - 11/24/2017 10:02:15 PM   
thedoctorking


Posts: 2297
Joined: 4/29/2017
Status: offline 		To the south, a two pronged enemy assault developed on the forces to each side of Kiev. I continued my slow retreat, launching a counterattack that I hoped would result in the destruction (or at least rout) of an SS division. Instead, the first SS brigade retreated on top of the other one, making their combined defense too strong for me to overwhelm. So instead they just got surrounded and cut off from resupply for this turn, hopefully further slowing the German advance in the sector. The Romanians, like their Finnish friends to the north, remained quiescent. Perhaps both countries are interested in negotiated settlements? We would be happy to re-cede the territory they lost in 1939-40 (which they have already captured) in return for their leaving the war. If they join us, we will not only guarantee their national independence and territorial integrity (under, of course, governments friendly to the USSR) but will also supply some of our valuable military equipment (the I-153 fighter and T-26 tank are highly spoken of, you know)...






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