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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 5:11:29 AM

Canoerebel

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I don't know if you're familiar with the development of this situation, but the discussion begins on Page 14.

Bottom line is this: There's a possibility that the huge number of ground troops, ships, and aircraft at Shikuka have somehow created an environment in which Erik's planes refuse to engage in a meaningful way. Early on, he would send thousands of fighters and strike aircraft. There would be brief and light skirmishing with the Allied CAP. And a few of his strike aircraft would get through. IE, he was launching massively huge raids that result in minimal fighting and losses. We think the issue is that the game engine is "immobilized" by the huge number of targets in the hex. (At first, I thought this was working against me, but it seems that it works more again Erik, as you'll see from the progression of the discussion.)

Unlike Erik, my big sweeps and strikes perform normally. Ominato is a huge base but not on the order of Shikuka.

This is a fluid situation. We're trying to figure it out. Erik hasn't even mentioned it in more than a month. He's going about his business testing other ways to stymie the Allies. He's a trooper. But I'm afraid that landing 1 bazillion troops on Shikuka, and basing 2 bazillion aircraft and ships there, may have overwhelmed the game engine.

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Post #: 541

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 1:22:46 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There were lots of sweeps preceding the bombers, and they all appeared normal in terms of intensity and longevity. So I think the sweepers cleared the way for the escorted bombers. I didn't get the impression that my raid suffered from the same handicaps that Erik's raids vs. Shikuka have.

And that's in the back of my mind: what if I've unintentionally created an environment in which Erik is handicapped but I'm not? What if my big base is relatively "immune" from his attacks, while his bases are open to my attacks?

I'm not sure that's the case yet. Erik is gamely fighting on, trying different things and not making any comments or complaints. But I'm still concerned that I've unintentionally nerfed the game.

With only one-sided information, I think it's too early to state who or what has transformed the game / "nerfed" the air war. There's some compelling information discussed previously here that suggests that the use of very heavy LRCAP may have an impact. I haven't seen anything that you've done to nerf anything-most of the "LRCAP to replace sweeps" bit over Sakhalin earlier appeared to be Erik's doing.

I don't recall if it's come up recently, but I'll reiterate it here as well. The 'too many planes=engine can't keep up with it' furballs that were a problem with the earliest iterations of the game have been tweaked / modestly improved but can still be a problem. It could be just a case of TMFP.

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Post #: 542

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 2:38:52 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't know if you're familiar with the development of this situation, but the discussion begins on Page 14.

Bottom line is this: There's a possibility that the huge number of ground troops, ships, and aircraft at Shikuka have somehow created an environment in which Erik's planes refuse to engage in a meaningful way. Early on, he would send thousands of fighters and strike aircraft. There would be brief and light skirmishing with the Allied CAP. And a few of his strike aircraft would get through. IE, he was launching massively huge raids that result in minimal fighting and losses. We think the issue is that the game engine is "immobilized" by the huge number of targets in the hex. (At first, I thought this was working against me, but it seems that it works more again Erik, as you'll see from the progression of the discussion.)

Unlike Erik, my big sweeps and strikes perform normally. Ominato is a huge base but not on the order of Shikuka.

This is a fluid situation. We're trying to figure it out. Erik hasn't even mentioned it in more than a month. He's going about his business testing other ways to stymie the Allies. He's a trooper. But I'm afraid that landing 1 bazillion troops on Shikuka, and basing 2 bazillion aircraft and ships there, may have overwhelmed the game engine.

I remember that, and I also remember that using LRCAP in place of or in addition to Escort and Sweep was thought to be playing a role. Are there yet examples of large strikes on Shikuka *without* the complication of LRCAP?

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Post #: 543

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 2:49:15 PM

Canoerebel

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Erik tried a few more raids after the big ones that caught our earliest attention. I don't know how those broke down between escorting fighters and LRCAP. I think he did try some reduced LRCAP/beefed up escort raids. He scored a few hits on one raid, including on CA Minneapolis. But I think he concluded that he hadn't found the right approach to attack Shikuka, so he's been working other angles (reinforcing the Kuriles, for instance) for the past month or so. He'll probably turn his attention back to Shikuka sooner or later. The recent Allied raids will probably act as a goad.

Erik will have a better understanding of what's going on - or what he suspects is going on - than I do. I think he has a better understanding of how the game engine works, how it's ideally should work, and when things are monkeying with it.

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Post #: 544

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 3:39:50 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik tried a few more raids after the big ones that caught our earliest attention. I don't know how those broke down between escorting fighters and LRCAP. I think he did try some reduced LRCAP/beefed up escort raids. He scored a few hits on one raid, including on CA Minneapolis. But I think he concluded that he hadn't found the right approach to attack Shikuka, so he's been working other angles (reinforcing the Kuriles, for instance) for the past month or so. He'll probably turn his attention back to Shikuka sooner or later. The recent Allied raids will probably act as a goad.

Erik will have a better understanding of what's going on - or what he suspects is going on - than I do. I think he has a better understanding of how the game engine works, how it's ideally should work, and when things are monkeying with it.

Do you know if he's forgone / foresaken the "LRCAP complication" and just tried a massive straight-up Port Attack raid with or without sweeps and escorts per se?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 3:42:47 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Erik tried a few more raids after the big ones that caught our earliest attention. I don't know how those broke down between escorting fighters and LRCAP. I think he did try some reduced LRCAP/beefed up escort raids. He scored a few hits on one raid, including on CA Minneapolis. But I think he concluded that he hadn't found the right approach to attack Shikuka, so he's been working other angles (reinforcing the Kuriles, for instance) for the past month or so. He'll probably turn his attention back to Shikuka sooner or later. The recent Allied raids will probably act as a goad.

Erik will have a better understanding of what's going on - or what he suspects is going on - than I do. I think he has a better understanding of how the game engine works, how it's ideally should work, and when things are monkeying with it.

Do you know if he's forgone / foresaken the "LRCAP complication" and just tried a massive straight-up Port Attack raid with or without sweeps and escorts per se?

I agree, dump LRCAP completely and see how things go.

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Post #: 546

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/7/2018 3:45:04 PM

Canoerebel

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He may have tried that, though perhaps not on a massive scale yet.

He lost a bunch of aircraft over Shikuka before the carrier battle, then during the carrier battle, and then to a lesser extent afterwards. He might've pulled his head back in the shell temporarily to rebuild his aircraft numbers and to hone his pilots.

That's just a guess, but that's why I'm working to get Death Star back online and to not do anything that would alert him to my perilous state.

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Post #: 547

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/14/2018 11:52:50 PM

Canoerebel

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Late July 1944

NoPac: Japan hasn't attacked the Allies at Sikhalin Island in weeks. Instead, Erik is landing reinforcements and supplies in the Kuriles and building airfields. He's even dropped a CD unit on the non-base hex closest to Russia. When the Allies return to Sikhalin, he wants to attack.

The Allies are engaging in strategic bombing missions nearly every day. Death Star is on call just in case an emergency arises (the worst would be Erik neutralizing Shikuka CAP and thereby getting access for his bombers to my ships. But I'm hoping I don't have to commit DS for another 70 days or so, long enough for all but one fleet carrier to repair damage. At some point it is likely that a massive force will return to the Kuriles and willingly seek battle. What about his ambush ideas and reinforcements? I think the Allied force will be sufficient to handle that.

Pacific: All indications are that Japan is withdrawing from the front lines. This is helpful, because taking bases will be necessary later on, so it helps to have some undefended. I'll be moving to take some low-hanging fruit soon, but nothing major is imminent. Long-term, yes.

DEI: Unlikely the Allies will move here during the war, with the remote possibility that the RN may strike at some point.

Burma/China: I'm not pressing forward right now, hoping that Eric will continue to defend as far forward as possible. So far that seems to be the case.

Points: The denominator isn't moving much, which is the goal. The numerator has moved a bit with strategic bombing (about 2,500 points thus far) and the points for the big Sikhalin bases. It's going to take awhile for the Allies to achieve the position in which I have an idea how the endgame will play out. But, for now, Japanese withdrawal in the Pacific, and the massive Allied airfields on Sikhalin Island, give me hope for a positive prosecution of the war.

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Post #: 548

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/16/2018 3:14:47 AM

Canoerebel

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7/25/44

Points Comparison: This comparison is between May 20, 1944 (just as the Allied fleet was leaving Pearl Harbor for Sikhalin Island) and July 24, 1944, the current turn.

The Japanese have scored 4,000 points, the Allies 10,000. That's a decent but not overpowering ratio at this date.

The most efficient means of scoring points has been Strategic Bombing, Base Points, and Air War, the latter due to significant losses by Japan in the carrier battle, the early big raids on Shikuka, and bombers destroyed on the ground at Ominato.

We're just getting started. The Allies really did achieve a critical offensive position invading Sikhalin Island. And I'm pretty sure the way to play things from here on out is to patiently await the build up of the elite Allied forces that begin coming online in late '44 and early '45 - particularly the Corsair-D, the P-51D, and additional Superforts. Patience isn't always a virtue, but having taken Sikhalin, the Allies can afford to carefully marshall forces until it really isn't a fair fight.

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Post #: 549

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/17/2018 6:26:46 PM

Canoerebel

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7/25/44

Since late 2012, I've played only John III. So I have a comforting familiarity with John's style and habits that's missing in this new game with Erik.

Trying to get a bead on Erik is one of my biggest challenges. For instance, here we see KB parked at Yokohama and Tokyo. It's been parked there for more than a week? Why? Why would Erik let me see KB? It isn't stupidity or ignorance, becuase the one thing I know (we all know) is that Erik is a superb player. There are two other possibilities: indifference (he's busy with his games and something like this isn't really on his radar at the moment) or he's using "white space" to mislead. I don't know which it is, yet.

Erik is much different than John III. John would've been far more aggressive in following up on the Kuriles Naval Battle and in attacking the Sikhalin redoubt. He'd have sent subs all the way to the West Coast; he'd have committed his combat ships versus Shikuka; he'd be waging an aggressively defensive war.

Erik hasn't sent subs forward (though he's changing that). He pretty much allowed Death Star to retire unmolested and apparently unobserved. He's backed off Sikhalin, at least temporarily. He's focused mainly on defense, reinforcing the Kuriles. And here his carriers sit in plain view, which is a coup for me.

He's also withdrawing his forces from SWPac and vicinity. He's moving alot of units to the Home Islands and Mainland Asia. He's still concentrating his defenses far forward in Burma.

He's preparing to fight a very tough defensive war....which means the Allied invasion of Sikhalin Island unhinged his defenses. Originally, in the game with Joseph, he was still fighting hard forward (New Guinea region) in September 1944. Now he's concentrating (it seems) on the Home Islands and the Asian mainland. He'll be prepared to fight hard elsewhere, but I think he's ceding alot of ground to the Allies in places where the Allies otherwise would have no hope of advancing, given my current deployment and future plans.

Complex and fun analysis and planning involved.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/17/2018 9:44:13 PM

JohnDillworth

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Not overly familiar with your opponent but 2 possibilities come to mind:

1.) He doesn't know you any better than you know him. You place supreme importance on knowing where the KB is at all times and operate accordingly. Perhaps Erik just doesn't care if you know or how much consternation it causes you not knowing where the KB is.

2.) more likely...He has a weakness somewhere that he is afraid you might exploit. Until he has addressed that weakness he is making darn sure you know that you will have to go through all of the IJN to get to that weakness.

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Post #: 551

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/17/2018 11:05:01 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Not overly familiar with your opponent but 2 possibilities come to mind:

1.) He doesn't know you any better than you know him. You place supreme importance on knowing where the KB is at all times and operate accordingly. Perhaps Erik just doesn't care if you know or how much consternation it causes you not knowing where the KB is.

2.) more likely...He has a weakness somewhere that he is afraid you might exploit. Until he has addressed that weakness he is making darn sure you know that you will have to go through all of the IJN to get to that weakness.

He did lose quite a number of aircraft in the carrier battle, but my first reaction was that he must be hoping you send B-29s on a Port Strike or Naval Strike and has a massive CAP trap for the occasion.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/17/2018 11:31:27 PM

Canoerebel

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Thanks, BB and John. All three of your posits are possibilities I hadn't thought of.

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Post #: 553

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/18/2018 1:05:36 AM

John 3rd

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Ahhhh...Dan...where is my turn?

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Post #: 554

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/18/2018 1:45:21 AM

Canoerebel

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Go away, evil one. You robbed me of six years of good sleep and unleashed on me a harvest of gray hair. I was a virtuous youth when I met you.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/18/2018 3:40:35 AM

John 3rd

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I put on 30 pounds, lost what little hair I possessed, and sacrificed numerous cats, dogs, and children to absolutely NO AVAIL!

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Post #: 556

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/23/2018 11:01:43 PM

Canoerebel

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7/30/44

Synopsis: I'm engaged in an unnatural, protracted, elongated plan that is building slowly. The fun comes in seeing if I can present things in such a way as to mislead Erik, or at least to make him worry; to see if he draws sensible conclusions that lead him to pull back in areas where he doesn't need to pull back or to station assets where there aren't needed. He's a smart, experienced player, so I'm not expecting much. But since the board is taking a certain shape, I might as well try to make use of that to mislead.

Sikhalin Island: Erik is keeping an eye on my bases an forces, but hasn't attacked. Allied 4EB continue to raid, with fighters sometimes sweeping in strength. Erik has distributed CAP well, and is defending the obvious targets and many others. I want to score points, but will raid only infrequently until Allied fighters are free to really work hard (right now, their primary mission is defense.

Kuriles: Erik continues to reinforce and build. SigInt reported 55,000 enemy units at little Shakustan Island, and 8th Division inbound to Shimishura Jima. Allied bombers hit arfields at Shimishura and Ketoi Jima to slow base-building. I think Erik will react by installing CAP, so tomorrow a large raid with much-enhanced fighter escorts and sweeps will target Shimishura. I don't have the means to oppose Erik's strong reinforcement operation, and I think later I can make use of it...if I manage to win a carrier battle.

Carriers: SigInt today that CV Akagi is inbound to Yokohama (the rarest and most valuable of intel reports; I usually get about five of these per game). So KB is probably located to handle threats to the north or to CenPac. Erik is probably concerned about the DEI. My carrier continue to rest and repair from the last naval battle. I don't think he knows their whereabouts. It's been more than a month, so he has to allow for anything. I think he is actively considering possibilities, mulling over worst-case scenarios, and taking prudent action that actually is helping me.

Burma: ERik pulled out of Prome, where he had 135k men behind six forts that withstood an attack by 200k Allied units. I think this is because he took measure of this game, his other games, and his uncertainty about Death Star and grew concerned about an Allied op against Tavoy or vicinity. His action was prudent, but he could've held Prome for at least three months, no problem. Can I persuade him or lead him to conclusions that might prompt further withdrawals? How do I encourage this? Part of the puzzle has been to move a sizeable Chinese army into the eastern Burma/western China jungle. They've finally arrived at Erik's western MLR. There's no chance of them breaking through, but the objective is simply to give him things to mull over, to ponder, to worry about.

CenPac: Today, two New Zealand brigades invaded and easily took Eniwetok, wiping out a naval guard unit behind three forts. Not much going on here; Erik has pulled way back; so all this was "catcher's indifference." But it suits me.

SWPac: Erik has withdrawn from some of his New Guinea bases, so quick and small amphib ops took these. The Allies hold as far west as Vanimo.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/24/2018 12:34:25 AM

JohnDillworth

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It's almost like Erik read your last AAR and is reacting to the strategy you used in that game. Looks like might be pulling back and building an inner core

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/24/2018 12:38:41 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It's almost like Erik read your last AAR and is reacting to the strategy you used in that game. Looks like might be pulling back and building an inner core

He has admitted that he likes to study up on his adversaries. What you say sounds about right!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/24/2018 8:47:30 PM

Chickenboy

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Meh. The 'inner core' and fighting withdrawal of Japanese defense has been done before. It's pretty standard fare for the most part.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/24/2018 9:25:21 PM

John 3rd

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He will FIGHT! Let me speak to the coward...

The Code of Bushido shall be read to him.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/24/2018 9:33:55 PM

Canoerebel

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He's been fighting hard and he's setting up a strong inner defense that's going to give me fits. The one helpful aspect is that I don't have to fight at 1:1 (or somesuch) to gain ground in CenPac, SWPac, etc. I prefer to wait until the odds are more favorable, but in the meantime have been able to pick up things on the cheap - things that aren't critical but ultimately would be necessary to effectively constrict Japan.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/25/2018 11:40:15 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/25/2018 11:37:32 PM

Canoerebel

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8/2/44

832 Squadron FAA: This torpedo squadron arrived yesterday with no pilots and no planes. I loaded it with recruits but didn't draw aircraft, due to the small pool. A lot of training accomplished in one day of training, despite the lack of planes.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/26/2018 1:43:56 AM

Bif1961

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Must have been ground school.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/26/2018 4:31:46 AM

Canoerebel

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8/2/44

SigInt: The second time I've gotten an enemy carrier report in the past three or four days.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/26/2018 4:35:44 AM

Canoerebel

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8/2/44

Ops Report: Erik probably didn't foresee this byproduct of abandoning Prome - it allows Allied units forward to upgrade.

When I stepped in effective March 1, 1944, most of the Allied units in Burma still had start-of-war squads, including combat squads. Many of those units cycled through Akyab and Ramree Island to upgrade, with mixed results. But now they're beginning to flesh out with up-to-date stuff.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/26/2018 4:44:53 AM

Canoerebel

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8/2/44

Intel Screen: The Allies trail by 17,000 points, 54k to 37k.

In my game with John III, the Allies drew even on this date. It then took me another 8+ months to achieve auto victory.

I don't have any particular target date for victory in this game since the Allies haven't come close to achieving the position or force reduction sufficiently to make prognostications. In all likelihood, this game will go into 1946.

And yet, I think there's a chance for the Allies to do better. This is a Scenario One game, which should help a bit. And the Allied hold on Sikhalin Island may prove decisive later, depending on how the looming naval campaigns turn out.

And I think I'm better prepared to play the late game, both from a more knowledgeable application of force and reducing the number of disadvantageous battles (using 4EB improvidently and accepting lower odds ground battles).

But all of this is academic if the Allies don't take control of the Kuriles, which in all likelihood will require a very tough carrier battle or campaign.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/26/2018 5:06:34 PM

Canoerebel

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8/3/44

Pilot Training: The raw recruits of this FAA torpedo squadron continue to train without aircraft. They're gaining skill each day but not experience. So my working hypothesis is that lack of aircraft doesn't effect skills training but may effect experience. That, of course, is an issue. But I'll leave the squadron as is for a few more weeks to see if hypothesis becomes theory becomes certainty.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/27/2018 3:25:52 PM

Canoerebel

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8/4/44

Air War: To this point, the routine air war has been mostly a 1:1 affair, or perhaps a bit in favor of the Allies. Allied 4EB targeted industry in the Home Islands and the mainland for six weeks or more. Erik has dispersed his fighters effectively, so I stood my bombers down for a solid week to rest them. The B-24s have resumed ops, occasionally targeting Kuriles bases to suppress fort and airfield building. Today's raid targeted Shimishura Jima, with Corsairs getting the best of Georges.

The B-29s have stood down for more than a week. Many reinforcing squadrons have arrived and needed some rest, after the long flight from West Coast airfields.

Overall, the Allies have scored significantly better than 1:1, when including the Japanese aircraft destroyed in the big carrier clashes and destroyed on the ground at Ominato during that one very successful raid a few weeks back.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 3/27/2018 3:36:54 PM

Canoerebel

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8/4/44

Heavy Bomber Losses: For the most part, heavy bomber losses have been modest (at least in comparison to my game with John III).

About seven B-29s were lost in one raid last week. Since the replacement rate is a meager one per day, it's tough to make good any losses. Over the past three weeks, about ten 10-plan B-29s reinforcements squadrons have arrived. I'll try to use these judiciously so that the squadrons don't dwindle to nothing. That likely means just one or two raids per week.

The B-24J pools are in excellent shape, with something like 250 planes in the pool.

Joseph is responsible for the healthy condition of the Allied fighter and bomber pools. On the flip side, the air war was tepid, so Erik's pools are probably uber-flush.