Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missile defence value?

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Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missile defence value?

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All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> Command: Modern Operations series >> Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missile defence value?

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Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missile d... - 6/13/2018 10:51:30 AM

spec111

Posts: 157
Joined: 9/30/2014
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How to calculate ship missile defence value against low-flying 1M ASM's?

Subj.

< Message edited by spec111 -- 6/13/2018 10:52:37 AM >

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RE: Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missi... - 6/13/2018 11:59:22 AM

SeaQueen

Posts: 1451
Joined: 4/14/2007
From: Washington D.C.
Status: offline

One way is to simply experiment.

The truth is, though, that the MDVs are rough estimates.

If you believe Wayne Hughes, then the MDV of a ship should be equal to the number of defensive missiles it has (i.e. you can shoot down exactly as many missiles as you have missiles to shoot them down with). The problem with that logic is that it neglects the missile hits being a stochastic process. Assuming that the defensive weapon's net Pk is fixed (which it isn't), the average number of weapons it can shoot down will be Pk*N0 where N0 is the inventory of defensive weapons. But wait! There's more! That's just the mean! There's ~50% odds that I'll shoot down fewer than that! What I really want is the maximum raid size I can be at least 90% confident of being annihilated. To do that, I need to do some stuff with the binomial distribution, which makes me happy, because it's one of my favorite statistical distributions.

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RE: Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missi... - 6/13/2018 12:11:13 PM

spec111

Posts: 157
Joined: 9/30/2014
Status: offline

I want plain and simple math for SDV, not for strike order.

I need formula with only small numbers of values: Vsam, Sasm, Pksam, Pkasm, N of firecontrol channels, SAM reloading time. Thats all.

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RE: Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missi... - 6/15/2018 4:46:34 AM

spec111

Posts: 157
Joined: 9/30/2014
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Bump? I have simple calculator, without constrait of "N of firecontrol channels". It works fine. But I have very big problems with the calculations when this constraint is taken into account. I even paid a small sum to a mathematics student for solving this problem. But there are no results so far.

Anyone?

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RE: Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missi... - 6/16/2018 10:17:42 PM

ExNusquam

Posts: 513
Joined: 3/4/2014
From: Washington, D.C.
Status: offline

This paper has the answer you're looking for - including the detailed formula. Research on Anti-Saturation Attack Model of Ship Formation for Anti-ship Missile Targets.

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