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SeaQueen -> RE: Salvo model, SMDV, etc. How to calculate ship missile defence value? (6/13/2018 11:59:22 AM)
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One way is to simply experiment.
The truth is, though, that the MDVs are rough estimates.
If you believe Wayne Hughes, then the MDV of a ship should be equal to the number of defensive missiles it has (i.e. you can shoot down exactly as many missiles as you have missiles to shoot them down with). The problem with that logic is that it neglects the missile hits being a stochastic process. Assuming that the defensive weapon's net Pk is fixed (which it isn't), the average number of weapons it can shoot down will be Pk*N0 where N0 is the inventory of defensive weapons. But wait! There's more! That's just the mean! There's ~50% odds that I'll shoot down fewer than that! What I really want is the maximum raid size I can be at least 90% confident of being annihilated. To do that, I need to do some stuff with the binomial distribution, which makes me happy, because it's one of my favorite statistical distributions.
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