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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/10/2018 7:11:37 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

I'm still seeing regiments/brigades taking higher absolute and percentage av losses than divisions. I thought that had been fixed/lessened.

No, it is an artifact of how the game engine works.

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Post #: 2731

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/11/2018 10:22:44 AM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/16/45

As a new turn begins, I'm most interested in two things: (1) How will the Allied attack at Etorofu go (the last one, just two days ago, came off at 1:2, but I swear it seems like the enemy is ripe for defeat), and (2) Will there be any Japanese interference with the critical ingress/egress mission?

Etorofu: The turn opens with a non-nuclear bombardment.

These bombardment runs are long enough to lead to meaningful wear and tear to the ships. The ships perform these missions at flank speed, which is the issue. I'm leaning towards slowing the mission down, so that the flank speed is never further than 2 hexes (the distance from Uruppu, where the missions will start and end), to minimize accumulated damage. Staying power is high on my list of priorities, especially for these big BBs.

Why make runs at all? Simply park your BB TF in the hex with your ammunition replenishment TF both with remain on station orders and blast away until your ammunition ships run dry. All this under cover of your DS CAP of course.

I experimented with this recently and even though they are sitting in the he with a remain on station order the bombardment TF still bombards at night. Although at this point with air cover it doesn't matter if you're bombarding in day or night phases.

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Hans

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Post #: 2732

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/11/2018 12:34:03 PM

Canoerebel

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Erik can bring 2,000 aircraft to bear at the tip of the spear, so the Allies can't reliably protect any TF that isn't in the same hex with DS if big enemy bases are nearby. When Etorofu falls, the routine you suggest will be used for the upper Kuriles, from Shimishura-Jima north.

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Post #: 2733

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/11/2018 5:39:08 PM

anarchyintheuk

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

I'm still seeing regiments/brigades taking higher absolute and percentage av losses than divisions. I thought that had been fixed/lessened.

No, it is an artifact of how the game engine works.

Thanks. The more I know the less I remember.

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Post #: 2734

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/11/2018 6:06:07 PM

Canoerebel

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1/17/45

NoPac: A new turn begins and I'm most interested in how the next attack vs. Etorofu fairs and how expeditious the ingress/egress mission will be.

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Post #: 2735

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/11/2018 6:26:27 PM

Canoerebel

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1/17/45

Etorofu: Following a few modest 2EB and 4EB strikes against the base, the Allied attack breaks down the enemy defenses and takes the base.

This happened so fast that prep for the next major target lacks several weeks. The best alternative is to invade Shimishura Jima, which has 27k defenders. The Allies have eight divisions 100% prepped (huge overkill given the recent Japanese withdrawal). The interesting aspect to Shimishura will be to measure the impact of Cold Zone penalties on the invasion.

I'll probably switch some of the Shimishura divisions to future targets. And it's time to change most of the Etorofu-prepped units also.

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Post #: 2736

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/11/2018 10:04:37 PM

Canoerebel

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1/17/45

NoPac: The ingressing herd rendezvoused with Death Star today. The egressing herd - some 800 empties and damaged ships - will remain with DS another day, just in case Erik crafted some kind of ambush. I don't think he has but there's a lot at stake here, and since Etorofu fell, the need for DS in the Kuriles isn't as pressing.

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Post #: 2737

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/12/2018 4:24:19 PM

Canoerebel

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1/17/45

Threat Assessment: Most of my AAR posts deal with Allied ops and plans, but every turn includes a significant amount of time to evaluating and providing for enemy threats.

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Post #: 2738

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/12/2018 6:08:14 PM

Canoerebel

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1/18/45

As the new turn begins, the main point of interest is Death Star. I'll be looking for indications that the egressing herd can break off from Death Star and head east.

Kuriles: One of the few offensive missions undertaken today are some airfield suppression raids against Shasukotan, the first of the war against this base. No opposition encountered and the raids score well.

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Post #: 2739

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/12/2018 6:56:28 PM

Canoerebel

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1/18/45

NoPac: This diagram is fascinating and full of drama for me and is utterly dry to most readers. Only a player can get jazzed about the minutiae of a major logistical undertaking.

I don't see any signs of enemy forces that might bedevil the egressing herd, so it will make its break to the Aleutians tomorrow. There are 700+ ships, so they are worth alot of points. But of those 700+, the vast majority are expendable from a "prosecuting the war" standpoint. The exception is the "wounded combat ship TF" that includes BBs Alabama and Richelieu. Any mishap with them would cause heartburn.

I think this is the last major ingress mission. Nearly all troops have arrived now (reinforcements slow to a trickle untile after Germany surrenders). As for fuel and supplies, that can be handled by routine, relatively small and regular TFs as soon as the Kuriles are wrapped up or nearly so.

This should be the last lull in activity until war's end. I need about two weeks for troops to finish prepping. During that interval, DS will escort the ingressing herd to Shikuka. Then DS will make an important port call to replenish and optimally reconfigure fighter squadron assignments (defense will be much more important than offense in the coming campaign).

In other words: Barring attacks by Erik, things may be quiet for a spell. Then I expect action to be sustained and heavy for many months.

In other words: That's why staying power for Death Star is so vital to Allied late-war strategy.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/12/2018 7:32:52 PM

HansBolter

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Have you given your carriers their last AA upgrades?

Are you planning on giving your destroyers their last AA upgrades in April and May?

Given your concern over maintaining a deterrent to major anti-naval air raids I would think these would be priorities.

Or do you eschew the last upgrades because you are heavily prosecuting the end of the war and can't afford the down time?

The Sumner class destroyers, which enter with a 717 AA rating upgrade to 851 and the Fletchers upgrade from 580-something to around 790-something IIRC.

I really like the Sumners. They don't have any armor like the Fletchers and are a little slower, but have (6) five inch guns to the Fletcher's 5 and carry more AA armament.

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Hans

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Post #: 2741

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/12/2018 8:16:39 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Only a player can get jazzed about the minutiae of a major logistical undertaking.

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Created by the amazing Dixie

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Post #: 2742

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/12/2018 9:21:27 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Have you given your carriers their last AA upgrades?

Are you planning on giving your destroyers their last AA upgrades in April and May?

Given your concern over maintaining a deterrent to major anti-naval air raids I would think these would be priorities.

Or do you eschew the last upgrades because you are heavily prosecuting the end of the war and can't afford the down time?

The Sumner class destroyers, which enter with a 717 AA rating upgrade to 851 and the Fletchers upgrade from 580-something to around 790-something IIRC.

I really like the Sumners. They don't have any armor like the Fletchers and are a little slower, but have (6) five inch guns to the Fletcher's 5 and carry more AA armament.

Any upgrades that require a shipyard (size 5 or more) aren't likely to get done unless and until I take Sapporo. The campaigining will be nonstop beginning early February, so there's no time to send ships to Prince Rupert (excepting those going for repairs, in which event they'll upgrade, too, if eligible).

I'm awfully glad the CVEs got their 9/1/44 upgrades, and I have hopes other ships will be able to upgrade sooner or later.

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Post #: 2743

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/13/2018 1:43:09 AM

Canoerebel

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1/18/45

SigInt: What I think this tidbit means: The Allies stole a march on Japan in the Wakkanai campaign - landing in non-base hexes to disrupt enemy reinforcement efforts. It worked.

Hokkaido is an obvious next target after the Kuriles campaigns, so Erik is taking precautions there. He's also taking them elsewhere, as this graphic shows.

Or this could be the product of a fevered imagination - perhaps IJA 125th Division is moving from one base to another, not taking position in a non-base hex.

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Post #: 2744

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/13/2018 3:59:10 PM

Canoerebel

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1/19/45

NoPac: A busy map, but it's almost all logistics and prep. Fascinating to me, dull to the Peanut Gallery.

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Post #: 2745

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/13/2018 4:10:09 PM

Canoerebel

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1/19/45

Target Prep: The next invasion will take place at Shimishura Jima in about ten days or so. All units are 100% prepped.

What I'm really waiting for, though, is prep for the target that will follow Shimishura. This graphic shows the units at Shikuka prepping for that target. The percentages range from 20s to about 50. But the Amphib Force HQ at 48% is the real key. I probably won't press the trigger until that unit reachs about 70% or so, which may be about three weeks away.

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Post #: 2746

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/13/2018 4:16:51 PM

Canoerebel

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1/19/45

BB Massachusetts: This graphic is posted in case Joseph is still reading.

When I stepped in for him March 1, 1944, Massachusetts had just been involved in action and had taken moderately heavy damage near New Guinea.

She limped to Oz and holed up there for awhile, as Erik had many subs in SWPac and SoPac. Over the ensuing months, as I shifted everything to NoPac, clearing the area, Erik gradually withdrew all his subs.

Then Massachusetts made the agonizingly slow journey to Pearl. Once she made it, I considered sending her on to West Coast but decided to err on the side of safety. Repairs would take longer, but at least she wouldn't run afoul of a sub.

Repairs were set at about 200+ days. That suited me, as she kind of served as a "guaranteed reserve" - a ship that would be ready later in the event a calamity took place in NoPac.

She's about ready now. She'll team up with CA Pittsburg, some good DDs, and possibly two fast CVs. I'm not yet sure of that TFs duty station. There are three possibilities, ranging from reinforcing NoPac, which is where the war shall be won, to far, far away, where an important assist to the war effort will take place in the summer months.

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Post #: 2747

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/13/2018 6:00:56 PM

Canoerebel

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1/19/45

Kuriles Garrisons: Erik has been withdrawing his Kuriles garrisons for months. The only base that remains strongly defended is Shasukotan (a hex SW of Onnekotan).

With rare exceptions, I haven't contested the withdrawal because its actually beneficial. I know why Erik is doing it - the islands are becoming more and more isolated, more and more difficult to supply, and the garrisons haven't been able to stand against concentrated Allied assaults. He saves points that I'd otherwise accrue in destroying his units, and he can beef up his Home Islands garrisons.

But he has inadvertendly expedited Allied plans by two months or more. I had allowed for ops in the Kuriles to last well into the spring months. No longer. Once the drawdown became clear a few months ago, many units began prepping for future ops. The first will commence in early February rather than in May, as originally planned.

In addition to daily recon of the Kuriles, bases on Hokkaido and northern Honshu are also under surveillance.

Of course, there's a chance that this could turn against me in unexpected ways. Weird things happen. For instance, on November 1, when Cold Zone effects set in, I thought it was a serious setback for the Allies. I had armies prepped for the northern Kuriles but no longer felt confident in proceeding. So I shifted the targets to Uruppu, Wakkanai and Etorofu, all of which turned out well. Sometimes seemingly bad things turn out good and sometimes seemingly good things may turn bad.

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Post #: 2748

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 6:31:23 PM

Canoerebel

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1/20/45

Etorofu: There were a few clashes here and there today but for the most part this map is about repositioning of forces in preparation for what's to come.

I'm still a bit concerned about the possibility of enemy raiders in NoPac.

Death Star and the ingressing herd didn't move again today, though I think I know why.

I've tweaked the Allied offensive plans, which will begin with an amphibious landing that should take place within four of five days of the date that DS gets off its butt and decides to start moving again. I think the plan is a good one.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 7:00:38 PM

Lecivius

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Sometimes seemingly bad things turn out good and sometimes seemingly good things may turn bad.

Some of the worst things that happened in my life turned out, in the long run, to be a course changer for some of the best things in my life.

An incident in government employ, sending me to college.

An idjit college prof killing my education, leading me to drive for a living.

Driving short haul for a living, leading to a brief stint in CART racing.

A spectacular accident in CART, putting me out of a job racing and back to working ( hey, it was only a half million for that ride!!).

Having kids try to steal my rig, and in the process breaking my back & forcing my employer to either disable me, or put me to work in the corporate office doing simple computer functions (sorta like watching paint dry).

Being bored outta my mind, teaching myself about data processing, computers, networking etc. (and proving the aforementioned prof to be the idjit I thought he was).

Getting married, but then finding out having a son was the best thing that ever happened to me.

I can't wait to see how much better things will get

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If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

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Post #: 2750

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 7:44:20 PM

JohnDillworth

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Those ARD's are like gold. That's quite a risk running those naked. I know, they move slow, but think how valuable they will be once you get them in theater. can you spare a bunch of CVE's?

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Post #: 2751

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 7:49:24 PM

Canoerebel

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Proverbs 16:9 speaks to that phenomenon pretty well: "A man plans his course, but the Lord orders his steps."

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Post #: 2752

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 7:51:48 PM

Canoerebel

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Those ARD's are like gold. That's quite a risk running those naked. I know, they move slow, but think how valuable they will be once you get them in theater. can you spare a bunch of CVE's?

Weighing all the data, I feel better about steaming them in "naked" than I do about trying to give them a big escort. I'm pretty sure Erik won't catch wind of them (he hasn't had nav search up in quite some time) and Death Star won't be too far away and can likely provide some LRCAP, if needed. I have two other ARDs at Adak, so the cubbard won't be bare should something untoward happen.

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Post #: 2753

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 11:05:52 PM

Canoerebel

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1/20/45

Roving IJN TF: I re-watched the "movie" to get a better idea of where that Japanese TF was sighted. Here it is, 10 hexes SE of the N in Japan. That's 25 hexes SW of the cripples TF, so it's safe from molestation even in the unlikely event Erik chose the right course and used flank speed.

I don't know what that TF is or where it's going, but I'll bear in mind the possibility of a raid into the Gulf of Alaska.

How wonderful this game is that a player is willing to re-watch the entire movie to glean a small detail like this....and yet how tedious this game can be....at the same time!

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 11:17:59 PM

BillBrown

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I have been experimenting with capturing the entire combat replay using a digital video recorder. That way I can fast advance to a point to try and see
details like this.

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Post #: 2755

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/14/2018 11:23:31 PM

Canoerebel

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This sighting was particularly elusive. It wasn't a nav search sighting. The icon wasn't included in the new turn map. It was, a think, just an anomaly of the AI during the movie, accidentally depicting a TF even though I had no detection on it, etc. The "sighting" lasted for all of a half second before the screen moved to another sector. Elusive or not, it was good information to get. I felt like Erik might have something out here, but this is too far from the egressing herd to be a concern.

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Post #: 2756

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/15/2018 12:52:59 AM

BBfanboy

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Looks like the sub in the next hex might have got a Sigint hit on the IJN TF - too low a DL to put an icon on the map but perhaps a mention in the Sigint report?

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Post #: 2757

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/17/2018 2:48:48 AM

CaptBeefheart

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A busy map, but it's almost all logistics and prep. Fascinating to me, dull to the Peanut Gallery.

I don't think too many of us would be playing this game if we didn't like "logistics and prep."

Regarding those DD upgrades, note that the final USN DD upgrades usually take out half or all remaining torpedoes. One thing to consider before going ahead is whether the IJN can still pack a punch on the surface.

Cheers,
CB

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Post #: 2758

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/17/2018 3:56:08 PM

Canoerebel

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I think most of us enjoy dealing with logistics in positive ways. I don't think many AAR readers enjoying reading about logistics, though. I think the Peanut Gallery wants action, mayhem, bloodshed.

Thanks for the tip about the USN DDs. That's good info.

The Kaigun is much weaker now but still a threat. But the air threat is great, so I'll likely err on the side of AA when upgrades are available.

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Post #: 2759

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/17/2018 4:02:09 PM

Canoerebel

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1/21/45 and 1/22/45

A rare post covering multiple turns.

NoPac: In all, Death Star was frozen into position for three days, including the 21st. On that turn, I noticed that the support TFs that I think were the issue showed only about 550 ops points expended and that all combat ships and carriers had fully replenished ammo and sorties. Still, three days frozen in position was long enough, so I detached the support TFs. They and DS were to head northwest to Ketoi.

Either because of the splitting or because the replenishment mission were completed, DS finally got moving again on the 22nd. I think this is the first turn in about five or six days that Erik got detection.

The three days of immobility were fine, as DS wasn't going anywhere in particular anyhow. The invasion of Shimishura is set to take place soon, but it doesn't matter whether it commenced two days back or four days ahead, since the real determining factor right now is prep time for the troops prepping for the big op that will follow Shimishura. Those units range from the 20s to the 60s now, and need at least two weeks, perhaps four, before they'll be ready to go.

It's possible further Kuriles invasions will follow Shimishura, assuming the Cold Zone effects prove acceptable and assuming Erik continues to withdraw his garrisons, as he appears to be doing.