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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/27/2018 7:37:02 PM

Canoerebel

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1/28/45

With a new turn in, I'm looking at three things: (1) For the first time in a month, a major Allied raid will take place against Kushiro, with the primary target being enemy fighters; (2) I've got to decide whether to drag things out at Shimishura or expedite them while moving on to another island; and (3) it's time to execute the extraction of units at forward islands that are destined for other targets.

Shimishura: A fairly effective bombardment. This, with what follows during the bombardment phases, makes me lean towards proceeding with the conquest of this island while initiating another invasion. I think I might be able to more effectively sell Erik on that than I can by loitering at Shimishura, playing too loosely.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/27/2018 7:53:08 PM

Canoerebel

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1/28/45

Shimishura: Screen capture shows unit AVs at the start of the Japanese auto-bombardment phase (I messed up the second screen capture that would have showed the AVs near the end of the Allied bombardment phase).

The Japanese army seems to be gassed, here. I think I'll try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow or the day after and see how that goes, before making a final decision as to how to handle Shimishura.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/27/2018 8:15:32 PM

Canoerebel

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1/28/45

Air Losses: Sync bug really messed up the air action during the turn.

I set up large sweeps of Bangkok, where Erik has 150 fighters, and large sweeps followed by escorted bombers at Kushiro, where he has 250 fighters. The primary objective was enemy fighters; a secondary objective was to work on industry at the latter.

The result was surprising. The individual sweep altercations went in favor of the Allies, until ops losses were factored in. Then the escorting bombing raids got chewed on pretty badly. By the end of the turn, the Japanese had scored a 200 to 150 victory. Since victory points are more important than ever, I need to give this alot of thought.

Digging a bit deeper, the fighter tallies were acceptable, with Erik losing 157 and me 117. That's not bad.

Digging deeper, I lost 16 Superforts and a bunch of Venturas. It's okay to spread losses around, so that my fighters don't take the brunt of things. The next month or two is really going to be about fighters, so trading some of my bombers for some of his fighters will be necessary. But I need to tweak my approach. The Liberators hold up much better than the Superforts do. The 2EB are somewhat expendable, but pools are low, so throwing them away isn't an option.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 2:33:08 AM

BBfanboy

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In the earlier part of the game B-17s are much more durable and they shoot down more enemy fighters. I always took that as the heavier defensive armament of the B-17s vs the B-24s (which sacrificed armament for range).
Do you have enough B-17s to have them stand in for the Superforts?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 11:00:32 AM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

In the earlier part of the game B-17s are much more durable and they shoot down more enemy fighters. I always took that as the heavier defensive armament of the B-17s vs the B-24s (which sacrificed armament for range).
Do you have enough B-17s to have them stand in for the Superforts?

B17s are almost non existent at this point in the game.

Production and replacement stopped long ago.

A new wave of them will come from Europe after the Germans fall, but that is a ways out.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 12:38:52 PM

Canoerebel

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Hans is right.

I did inherit a goodly and surprising number of B-17s from SqzMyLemon. They were all located in Burma and India, so that's where I've used them. I still have a handful left, but they don't seem to be any more immune to good enemy fighters than my other 4EB are.

The new model B-17 comes online in big numbers sometime in the second half of 1945.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 3:16:42 PM

Bullwinkle58

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The new model B-17 comes online in big numbers sometime in the second half of 1945.

It's been a long time since I saw those (AI game), but I always thought of them as the Big Silver Birds. They're not magical, but you get so damn many of them. The monthly production is just beautiful.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 3:20:54 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The new model B-17 comes online in big numbers sometime in the second half of 1945.

It's been a long time since I saw those (AI game), but I always thought of them as the Big Silver Birds. They're not magical, but you get so damn many of them. The monthly production is just beautiful.

Not to mention that you get a bajillion groups arriving at Eastern US with 16 planes already in them. And 60-Exp pilots.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 4:04:04 PM

Canoerebel

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1/29/45

This turn opens with my attention focused on Shimishura, where the Allies are to attack for the first time. The attack is preceded by another tank battalion coming ashore (to trigger a Japanese auto-bombardment). There's no ship bombardment today, because DS is too far away to provide adequate cover. I don't think the risk is worth it.

Shimishura: The attack goes very well for the Allies. The only break on taking this base is the need to overcome the remaining five forts. Shimishura will likely fall inside 10 days.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 4:26:23 PM

Canoerebel

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1/29/45

NoPac: The op going on right now is mostly "below the surface" but is incredibly complex. It's far more complex than the next invasion will be. I can't wait until it's time for that, just so I don't have to deal with the tediousness and tension of the complex but decidedly unsexy things I'm dealing with to prepare.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/28/2018 8:11:41 PM

jwolf

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I wonder if Shikuka has more supply than Japan.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 9/29/2018 6:32:06 PM

Canoerebel

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1/30/45

NoPac: Tomorrow is a critical day. Death Star will move further west to provide protection for assault shipping moving to Etorofu to extract major units.

There is some risk here. Erik had another good day with fighters. He's growing bolder and more confident. There is a chance he could try something major tomorrow. While trying to cover all contingencies, my main concern is DS and the ships at Etorofu. My best guess is that he won't try for an all-out attack there - not quite yet. I think he's more likely to look for a likely target to overwhelm. Toyohara, with 120 fighters, is my guess.

So I dispersed Toyohara's fighters - moving most to Etorofu and Uruppu to bolster protection there. I moved the remaining 2EB to Shikuka.

I need one or two more turns to extract my units. Then I can begin shifting from a largely defensive posture to a more aggressive offensive posture.

Enemy dispositions continues to be favorable for "the next big thing." The timetable remains the same, with the possibility of expediting, if necessary, once the Etorofu units are extracted. Alot is gonna happen in about ten days.

In the meantime, though, how bold will Erik get?

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/2/2018 5:30:38 PM

Canoerebel

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1/31/45 and 2/1/45

NoPac: The Japanese caved at Shimishura today, far sooner than expected. This is a good thing but means I'll have to tinker a bit with the Allied "activity" meant to give Erik something to pay attention to.

The critical loading of units at Etorofu continues without opposition. I hope this will wrap up tomorrow. If it doesn't, only mechanical support will be left, so I'll probably order the TFs to move out anyhow. It's time to get them back to Shikuka.

At that point, a quick mission to retrieve units at Wakkanai will take place.

Then it will be time for "the next big thing."

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/2/2018 6:10:27 PM

Lecivius

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I am really curious as to if I have sleuthed the "Next Big Thing". I am really enjoying this.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 7:21:19 AM

CaptBeefheart

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I'm thinking it's Korea.

Cheers,
CB

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 9:19:04 AM

tolsdorff

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Judging by the prep table a couple of posts back, a lot of unit are prepping for a base with a name 6 or less characters long.

I am just wildly guessing it's going to be Sendai. That would be in CR's spirit and if succesful a crushing blow to the Japanese. The approach to Korea seems somewhat vulnerable compared to the approach to the japanese east coast.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 11:01:57 AM

paullus99

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Well, it is open terrain & close enough to support with those "millions" of points in supply which CR has been shuttling in.

It certainly would also be the largest, most intensive & probably final battle of the war. Obvert would have no choice to commit everything in its defense & CR brings the Kitchen Sink as well.

It would be incredibly bloody, but it should end things on a bang....if that's where he's going.

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Post #: 2807

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 2:36:55 PM

Canoerebel

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2/2/45

NoPac: It's fun reading your guesses and analysis. Some good thinking there. It's also fun monitoring Erik's thinking, as best I can cobble together from SigInt, garrison levels, movement dots, and the other little things that help paint a picture. He's thinking. He's making logical deductions. He has a problem, I believe.

The Next Big Thing will be a massive attack. I think Erik has to respond violently. There is a chance he will prevail, primarily because of his potent air force. There is a chance he'll fail, primarily because they Allies are very strong and well-organized, I think. If Erik loses (or somehow fails to contest strongly) this next move, it'll be fatal to his chances. I now have the base of operations and force allocation to prosecute the war non-stop in and around his heartland. There shouldn't be any further major downtimes.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 2:54:46 PM

Mike Solli

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Instead of calling your next operation "the next big thing", why not give it an operation codename? Something like Operation Big Thang?

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Post #: 2809

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 2:57:18 PM

Canoerebel

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I've always used code names. Readers of my last AAR got endless versions of circus and fair names: Big Tent, Third Ring, Strong Man, Carrousel, etc. etc. etc.

Somehow, I didn't feel right using code names in this game, since I stepped in on March 1, 1944, for Joseph, who had previously stepped in for Historiker. Perhaps Joseph's choice of names for carrier suppressed any inclination to be creative. :)

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 2:59:01 PM

Canoerebel

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2/2/45

Next Big Thing Units at Wakkanai: These guys have the prep levels needed to go into harm's way.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 3:04:08 PM

Canoerebel

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2/2/45

Next Big Thing Units at Shikuka: 1st Cav. Division prep is illustrative of the reason more prep time is useful; III Amphib Force HQ prep is illustrative of why I will pull the trigger ASAP, if development warrant.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 3:10:28 PM

Canoerebel

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In addition to the three divisions in the prior posts, other divisions and preps (these units are mostly aboard ship returning to Shikuka to combat load):

25th - 58%
96th - 34%
38th - 53%
37th - 43%
31st - 41%
43rd - 53%

That's nine entire divisions (not eight, as I had stated above). You can see that another six or eight days of prep would get a couple more units over 50%, but speed will probably outweigh that consideration.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 3:15:51 PM

Canoerebel

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The command HQ is 100% prepped for the target. The lower HQs are low-prepped and won't be of much help.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 3:23:10 PM

Canoerebel

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Well, that last post wasn't quite right. Tenth Army HQ is 46% prepped, which may help. But III Amphib Corps is 0%. That's not going to help. (Why, you ask, is it 0%? Well, on the day I switched it's prep at Pearl Harbor many, many moons ago, it embarked on transports to come to the scene. But it's group of transports got hung up several times and is still at sea with Death Star. It's been prepping for perhaps 30-40 days. A failure, but one I can excuse because there's so much going on that things like this will usually happen.)

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 3:35:00 PM

Lokasenna

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GetAssista did some testing on the presence of HQs before.

Just having them in the hex (or within range I imagine) will help. Yours are redundant, assuming Tenth Army HQ is one of the non-command HQs.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 3:39:58 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's fun reading your guesses and analysis. Some good thinking there. It's also fun monitoring Erik's thinking, as best I can cobble together from SigInt, garrison levels, movement dots, and the other little things that help paint a picture. He's thinking. He's making logical deductions. He has a problem, I believe.

His problem is that it's 1945 and he doesn't have much of a fleet anymore because he just used it.

I'll put my nonexistent chips on Genzan.

I don't think you'd do Sendai or Iwaki, even though it's open terrain, simply because the risk is too great given that Erik still has strong air forces. Korea, on the other hand, is harder for him to interdict both by sea (there are no good ports on the north side of Japan, really, so presumably his navy is on the south side which will take an additional day or two of transit) and by air (fewer interlocking high-level airfields).

Rashin, the base right next to Russia, doesn't really get you much. Neither does Kanko.

Genzan, on the other hand, opens up splitting the Korean peninsula in a matter of days if it's weakly-held. At minimum, you may end up triggering the Soviets early or keeping that possibility in his mind - especially if you can land paratroops to help block the rails from China and prevent AV from moving into the garrison area, such as at Jehol or points west.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 5:29:41 PM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's fun reading your guesses and analysis. Some good thinking there. It's also fun monitoring Erik's thinking, as best I can cobble together from SigInt, garrison levels, movement dots, and the other little things that help paint a picture. He's thinking. He's making logical deductions. He has a problem, I believe.

His problem is that it's 1945 and he doesn't have much of a fleet anymore because he just used it.

I'll put my nonexistent chips on Genzan.

I don't think you'd do Sendai or Iwaki, even though it's open terrain, simply because the risk is too great given that Erik still has strong air forces. Korea, on the other hand, is harder for him to interdict both by sea (there are no good ports on the north side of Japan, really, so presumably his navy is on the south side which will take an additional day or two of transit) and by air (fewer interlocking high-level airfields).

Rashin, the base right next to Russia, doesn't really get you much. Neither does Kanko.

Genzan, on the other hand, opens up splitting the Korean peninsula in a matter of days if it's weakly-held. At minimum, you may end up triggering the Soviets early or keeping that possibility in his mind - especially if you can land paratroops to help block the rails from China and prevent AV from moving into the garrison area, such as at Jehol or points west.

My cyber-chips are on Akita and Hachinohe, to sever the end of Honshu from the rest and isolate all the troops at Aomori, Ominato and on Hokkaido.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 7:27:39 PM

Lokasenna

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Ah, I forgot Akita had a name short enough. That's also a possibility.

I might be on that wagon before Genzan, but since I said Genzan I'll stay there.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 7:56:11 PM

Canoerebel

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Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea. :)

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