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RE: Notes from a Small Island

 
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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/4/2018 10:56:54 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea. :)


IIRC, it was the numbers and quality of the Japanese fighters that threw off your calculations of what you could achieve. Normally the Japanese would have been suffering enough for supply and fuel that such numbers and progress on advanced aircraft would have been unachievable, but low losses during the first couple of years of the war let Japan concentrate on hoarding pilots and good aircraft. Not something you could influence much after taking over in March 1944.

Against a most excellent IJ player you have done very well. The fact that it could still go either way keeps it high in kibitzer entertainment value!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 2821
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/5/2018 3:23:00 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea. :)



Not so crazy unless this meant you had nothing prepped for the Kuriles.

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Post #: 2822
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/5/2018 5:03:27 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Genzan and Kanko were two of the original targets to follow the invasion of Sikhalin Island. It seems crazy now (and probably seemed crazy to all of you then) that I prepped armies for Korea. I really thought the invasion might be so successful that I might need to be prepared to leap forward quickly. That was pure crazy sauce. It's good to think and plan for success, but it's better if that's built on a realistic understanding of the initial assault. I wish I'd prepped those units for the Kuriles instead of Korea. :)



Not so crazy unless this meant you had nothing prepped for the Kuriles.


This is true, plus as soon as the troops are ashore you can immedately start prepping for the next target. IMO by '45 the Allied superiority in firepower is so great that they can do without the added bonus of 100% for combat if it means shaving a few weeks off prep time for the next target.

My money is on somewhere on Northern Honshu. Maraizu or thereabouts, supported by grabing Oki Shoto and Ulleungdo. If the Allies get airbases set up here in such close access to the major IJ aircraft centres, is lights out for the Empire.

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Post #: 2823
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/6/2018 11:26:48 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Air War, as BBfanboy notes, is wonky. It's the only advantage Erik has in the game, but it's significant. If balance of power in the air were about equal or in favor of the Allies, the game would essentially be over now.

The USAAF is in decent shape, with good pools and good pilot reserves. The P-50D and the P-47D25 are pretty good in several select roles. The P-38L can be useful in minimal roles.

The US Navy is in pretty bad shape. The pools and pilot reserves are low, but the key factor is that the Hellcat and the Corsair cannot stand up against the elite enemy army fighters. The problem is max altitude. But the carriers are massive in number and should be able to absorb at least one good blow perhaps more.

The challenge is going to be to achieve something significant quickly, before Erik has enough time to achieve multiple massed air battles that will hurt my Naval air power, especially if Army air isn't able to come in quickly enough. That's why prep is important in this case (I understand and agree with generalizations about late-war Allied power, but often local circumstances - meaning circumstances in this game - may negate traditional thinking).

I've considered many options, sort of like preparing an Environmental assessment before embarking on a major public works project. By law, "doing nothing" has to be one of the options considered. I considered that here - waiting for the next gen Army (and even Navy) fighters to come online. For many reasons, this option isn't really viable. I think the plan has a decent chance of success, so I will proceed.

But the Air War is wonked beyond belief, so just about any result is possible here, ranging from a decisive Allied victory to the utter gutting of Allied naval air power that might set back the Allies by six months or more. Seriously.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 2824
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/6/2018 12:31:34 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
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Status: offline 		Obverts production, factories, resources, fuel, oil and economy are almost entirely untouched and his supply lines to the DEI appears intact. He can simply outproduce you in aircraft and can select what aircraft to produce. There is nothing you can do about your production (such is the game). The sub war is not what it should be (Japan nuclear escorts)so you options are limited. At this stage of the game cutting his supply lines is not feasible and Japan probably is pretty deep in reserves anyway. So your only choice is to try and break even in the air, get ALL you bombers in range, and take your army to the enemy. Air, Army, Navy...you have an advantage in 2 of those 3 so thats what you are bringing. I guess the only other thing you can do in the air is try to out train him in pilots. Once the brightest cherry blossoms have fallen even the best aircraft won't help

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 10/6/2018 4:29:56 PM >

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 2825
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/6/2018 12:35:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		You're right, John. The "next big thing" plan is built with those things in mind. :)

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Post #: 2826
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/6/2018 12:49:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: Death Star and the Ingressing Herd made Shikuka today. That brings to an end a complex operation that took place forward enough to bear some risk. For instance, 100 assault ships (APA and AKA) were used to extract an army from Etorofu. Those ships were under 150 good army fighters and under LRCAP from Death Star. But there was a chance Erik could blast through that CAP, using sweeps and escorted strike packages, and neuter the next big thing before it got underway.






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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/6/2018 4:09:34 PM   
Lokasenna


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Status: offline 		Nuclear escorts aren't a thing anymore, if either a DBB scenario or the scenario data patch is being used.

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Post #: 2828
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/6/2018 4:36:04 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I think you're referring to the weakness of escorting fighters (not to escorting ships, like DDs).

You're right that escorting fighters get chewed up. I'm counting on that, to an extent. But had Erik sent his elite fighters to sweep Etorofu, and had well-escorted and large strike packages come in, the chances are they would have overcome Allied CAP and savaged the host of assault shipping there. That's what I meant to say, though I may not have said it clearly.

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Post #: 2829
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/7/2018 3:40:12 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

The USAAF is in decent shape, with good pools and good pilot reserves. The P-50D and the P-47D25 are pretty good in several select roles.


If the P-50's are doing well, you must have the Blackhawks Squadron!




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_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

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Post #: 2830
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/7/2018 4:14:32 AM   
Canoerebel


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That's an illegal use of a cultural reference, Capt. Harlock! I had to look it up!














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Post #: 2831
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/7/2018 3:56:19 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think you're referring to the weakness of escorting fighters (not to escorting ships, like DDs).

You're right that escorting fighters get chewed up. I'm counting on that, to an extent. But had Erik sent his elite fighters to sweep Etorofu, and had well-escorted and large strike packages come in, the chances are they would have overcome Allied CAP and savaged the host of assault shipping there. That's what I meant to say, though I may not have said it clearly.



I was referring to the "Super E's", which I think is what John was referring to as well given the sentence about the sub war not being what it should be.

With the database patch such that there isn't a 8x DC device (it's split into 4 of 2x), they don't land the ridiculous hits.

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Post #: 2832
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 12:03:36 AM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Thanks for the clarification. I know I was facing uber E-class in my game against John III. I'm not sure in this game, only because there haven't been very many encounters.

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Post #: 2833
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 12:09:06 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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NoPac: A fascinating turn. Death Star and a bunch of empty transports moved south from Shikuka towards Wakkanai. This may appear like an invasion force, to Erik, but it's actually a mission to retrieve units from Wakkanai. He'll have to adjust all kinds of things, allowing for bombardments of his biggest airfields, invasion, etc.

All along the coastline, Allied craft are probing - subs in the Sea of Japan, YMS at Sapporo and Bihoro, etc. Against this is to give the appearance of interest here, there, everywhere.

At Shikuka, the ingressing herd fully unloaded in a single day. Loading of invasion troops may commence tonight, although I first have to check to see if all troops have low disruption, as some where aboard ship a long time. I think the invasion forces may be able to get underway in about two days, no more than three.

Erik chose today to launch large-scale sweeps of Shikuka by his good fighters. The Allies came out ahead, especially in terms of quality of aircraft expended. I wish he would continue this, but he'll probably have to pull his fighters back from his Hokkaido airfields, out of fear of Allied bombardments.

The pressure will increase tomorrow, as DS moves towards Sapporo. How Erik reacts should be interesting. HOw he then reacts the day after, when DS suddenly moves back towards Shikuka, will also be interesting.

It would be a gift for Erik to wear out his air force now, but I doubt he will.





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Post #: 2834
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 1:35:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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The Next Big Thing Prep: Prep for the major combat units at Shikuka ranges from the 30s to about 80. The five infantry/cav divisions range from 34 to 53. At Wakkanai, the three divisions that will be picked up are at 62, 68 and 70.

The Amphib Force HQ is already aboard an AGC and has 75% prep. That's decent.

Overall, the prep is minimally acceptable. I'd like it to be higher, but this is indicative of the tension between prep and speed. It's time to get this show on the road.

To this point, the retrieval of units has gone without a hitch - bringing back major units from forwards positions. Erik is good at spotting weakenesses and launching spoiling attacks, so I sweated the entire process.

Wakkanai is the last hurdle. I don't think he'll pounce tomorrow or the day after, because he'll likely need a day or two or three to process the sudden move by Death Star and what it might mean.

The invasion is well-planned and configured, I believe. It might run afoul of his mighty air force and suffer greivously. If I can get all of my troops loaded in good order, I'm ready to accept that challenge.







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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 3:46:32 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for the clarification. I know I was facing uber E-class in my game against John III. I'm not sure in this game, only because there haven't been very many encounters.


Unless you and Erik updated the database, you are facing the Super-E's. Perhaps Erik sacrificed many of them during the first naval battles for the Kuriles and area.

_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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Post #: 2836
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 4:06:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hey, Joseph, I'm glad you're reading! I am always grateful to you for bequeathing such an immense OOB (and pilots pools). I've done my best to use your bequests wisely, but haven't always succeeded.

I hope you're having a good autumn. Or is it winter there, already? It's still summer here.

Erik did suffer tremendous riff-raff losses during the Battles of Shikuka Island. By riff-raff, I mean ships (sometimes good ones) smaller than DD in size.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/8/2018 4:07:12 PM >

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Post #: 2837
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 5:02:50 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: DD Thanet tangles with the lingering enemy PB TF SE of Japan. This was set up to give Erik something else to consider but took place a day earlier than I wished. When I checked distance yesterday, I thought everything was "just right." If Erik sends out air patrols tomorrow, he might pick up some stuff before I wanted him to.

A USN sub hit a mine at Bihoro, on Hokkaido's north coast. I accepted that risk to ring the doorbell there, too. Subs entering ports at Genzan, Kanko, and a port on Japan's west coast didn't encounter mines. Neither did the YMS that's been loitering at Sapporo for two days.

I wonder if Erik withdrew his fighters from his forward bases? I bet he did. Let's see.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/8/2018 5:03:03 PM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 6:06:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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NoPac: So very much going on, as both of us deal with many uncertainties and some probabilities. We both know in general what's unfolding, but not enough to predict exactly...and there are the vagaries of chance, weather, dice rolls, something overlooked, etc.

In addition to the probing in NoPac, the Allies are making some noise south of Port Blair in the Bay of Bengal, where Erik has (undoubtedly) long-expected an invasion. I'm not counting on anything important, but it's worth a try.






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Post #: 2839
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 8:28:03 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I decided to err on the side of caution. Then I changed my mind. The opening moves in Operation The Next Big Thing should take place tomorrow. Erik will gain a much better idea of my plan, but I hope to achieve a few key things that will help clear the path for the main body.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 10:20:18 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Unless you and Erik updated the database, you are facing the Super-E's. Perhaps Erik sacrificed many of them during the first naval battles for the Kuriles and area.

_____________________________


I believe this is stock with no updates. Dan can correct me but he generally uses his subs in support of is Navy as opposed to commerce hunting. The Super-E's make attrition of the IJN commerce and tanker fleet a pretty heavy lift so it's probably not worth it

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 2841
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/8/2018 11:04:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Yes, that's right. In games that have Japanese super E-class ships, sub warfare is hopeless. Enemy air ASW and the E-ships will destroy everything.

I've employed my subs mainly in defense of Shikuka (with good success, I think) and out in the Pacific as tripwires (with good success there, too). There are some commerce raiders in the DEI, and they've scored some kills, but it hasn't been major. There is also a large contingent of subs in the Bay of Bengal, but no Japanese shipping has been out there since we began the match.

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Post #: 2842
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/9/2018 10:34:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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Erik is taking unusually long to process this turn. Perhaps its the complexity of the turn, perhaps he's had a day full of parent-teacher conferences or whatever.

Operation the Next Big Thing: As the Allies moved south in the Kuriles and made the quick campaign for Wakkanai, I was evaluating "what next?"

There were many opportunities. Hokkaido was an obvious target with lots of important bases. Perhaps too obvious.

The biggest issue was the rail network, allowing Erik to bring in reinforcements to an invasion site - as long as he protected his rail network.

I like the vulnerability of Kushiro, on the SE coast, partly because Erik might deem it "safe," since two rails come into the base. I used "bomber recon" to confirm that there were no enemy units in the vacant hexes to the north and west. The base was susceptible to isolation, if I could land troops on both rail hexes. So I began prepping units about 30-45 days ago.

Since then, Erik has moved units forward, correctly percieving the dangers. He didn't post units in the key vacant hexes, though. Over the past five or seven days, movement dots indicated that he may be in the process of addressing that.

So need for speed has become paramount. And with DS near Sapporo last turn, I figured Erik was least likely to expect a sudden move in the Kushiro quadrant.

To succeed, the Allies have to land units to cut the rail, followed quickly by a massive landing at Kushiro that can take the base against nearly 80k troops in woods terrain and probably six forts or more. The Allied navy should be able to pound via bombardment, with replenishment via AEs at sea or support ships at Etorofu.

The question is whether Erik can win the race by getting units to Kushiro before it falls - and that probably depends on whether his air force can blugeon the Allied navy.

It should be a huge fight. I don't think it's a sure thing for either side. But I do think the opportunity is there and that the plan is a good one.





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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/11/2018 12:54:44 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The boy (Erik) has disappeared. He sent a brief note today that he was busy and would send the turn this evening. He didn't. I think the issue is the complexity of the turn. I think he'll send it tomorrow.

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Post #: 2844
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/11/2018 11:24:06 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2/7/45

This turn opened under the darkest of clouds; the clouds cleared; a number of favorable things happened; but one looming storm worries me above all else.

The Next Big Thing, D-Day Minus 1:

1. With each new turn, the first thing I do is read the combat report. This turn wa to begin with two surprise fast transport landings in the non-base hexes W and N or Kushiro. I was dismayed - devasted might be a better word - when the combat report showed no landings had taken place. What had happened? Where had those TFs gone? How much of my plan did Erik pick up on by all the other moves? Would there be any chance of getting troops ashore tomorrow? I was crushed.

2. But upon opening the turn, the FT TFs were in the right place and all the troops were ashore. Interction of the rail lines was succesful! Kushiro is (temporarily) isolated by land!

3. The transports loading key units at Wakkanai completed the process in a single day and still had sufficient movement points left to join DS near Bihoro. This means the invasion is on schedule, with the key units and ships in place to strike for the beaches tomorrow.

4. Several Allied DD and DE TFs took station W and SW of Kushiro, meaning Erik's ships will have to get through them to interdict at Kushiro. Also, various YMS, AM and other TFs patrolled key passes and ports to clear mines and check for other obstacles. The way to the beach looks clear.

5. Allied bombers targeted the two island airfields east of Hokkaido, with modest effect. Bombers and a small bombardment TF hit Bihoro with minimal effect.

6. Tomorrow, DS takes position a hex west of Kushiro (I hope). Hopefully this will draw any enemy strikes. Also, Erik won't be able to sweep DS, since it's in a non-base hex.

7. If that works, DS should "insulate" the assault shipping at Kushiro from attack. But Erik can sweep there, so if strikes do bypass DS, my assault shipping may be savaged beyond belief. I'm toying with whether to land troops tomorrow or wait a day, so that the assault ships can unload early, but leaning towards the former.

8. Elite enemy LBA destroyed what should be elite Allied LBA at Wakkanai. Nothing I have - not even my best fighters piloted by my best pilots - can stand against his air force. There is a chance the game is blown by the wonkiness of Japanese air power. Of course, things always seem darkest after a bad event, so I haven't lost hope yet. But I know of nothing I can do against his massive fighter forces.





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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/11/2018 11:25:19 PM >

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Post #: 2845
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 4:39:25 AM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

8. Elite enemy LBA destroyed what should be elite Allied LBA at Wakkanai. Nothing I have - not even my best fighters piloted by my best pilots - can stand against his air force. There is a chance the game is blown by the wonkiness of Japanese air power. Of course, things always seem darkest after a bad event, so I haven't lost hope yet. But I know of nothing I can do against his massive fighter forces.


How long before you get the F8F?

_____________________________

Civil war? What does that mean? Is there any foreign war? Isn't every war fought between men, between brothers?

--Victor Hugo

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Post #: 2846
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 5:40:01 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
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From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline 		Good luck!

Cheers,
CB

_____________________________

Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

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Post #: 2847
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 11:56:45 AM   
HansBolter


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

8. Elite enemy LBA destroyed what should be elite Allied LBA at Wakkanai. Nothing I have - not even my best fighters piloted by my best pilots - can stand against his air force. There is a chance the game is blown by the wonkiness of Japanese air power. Of course, things always seem darkest after a bad event, so I haven't lost hope yet. But I know of nothing I can do against his massive fighter forces.


How long before you get the F8F?

quote:

_____________________________





IIRC its either August or September when Bearcats and Tigercats start arriving.


_____________________________

Hans


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Post #: 2848
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 12:39:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's right - 8/45.

The problem is pretty dire. F4F-5s, F4U-1C, F4U-1D, P-51D, and P-47D25 cannot stand up to enemy fighters in sweep roles - not even with the best pilots I have (which are very, very good) fully rested.

My fighters can handle enemy naval fighters (I think), enemy fighters on LRCAP, and enemy fighters in escort roles (I think).

So the Allied plan is based upon placing Death Star between Kushiro and the main enemy bases, "probably" drawing any strikes and thus protecting the assault ships at Kushiro. Bombardment TFs and bombers will target Bihoro and Kushior airfields, and I don't think Erik will post fighters or bombers there, though he might. The plan has a decent chance of working and a decent chance of failing spectacularly.

I'm not sure what to do at this point. I don't want to back off and wait six months in the hopes that next gen fighters can handle what would then be even better IJ fighters with more highly trained pilots. If I have to wait until the autumn of '45 to do anything close to the Home Islands, the war is basically over. Even if its not, somehow, the next six months would be excruciatingly non-fun. I'd have to diver to dealing with Japanese-held islands out on the periphery, doing stuff that isn't very significant, knowing that Japan's air defenses were just getting stronger and stronger.

I've tried everything I can think of - layered CAP, high CAP, low CAP, high sweeps, low sweeps, layered sweeps. Nothing seems to work. Could there be something I'm missing? Are there tricks to this that I don't know, given my experience level?

If the cream of Allied fighters and pilots aren't competitive for at least six months, what are the options?

Perhaps this is just morbid thinking. But I try to plan for and allow for best-case and worst-case scenarios, then working inward to more likely situations. Four months ago, I did not foresee a worst case scenario where the best Allied fighters had no chance. Six weeks ago, I was beginning to worry. But the situation didn't really become apparent until about ten days ago, when Erik started his big sweep campaign. It's pretty bleak now.

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Post #: 2849
RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/12/2018 1:48:00 PM   
AcePylut


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Status: offline 		Low level night bombing of suspected enemy fighter airfields?

and knockout the frames on the ground?

IDK - just thinking out loud.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
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