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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 2:48:52 PM

Canoerebel

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Russia will activate in six months. My primary long-range objective is to make sure that Western Allied campaigns and Russian campaigns are synergistic.

I'm not yet sure how strong the Russian air force will be. Russian fighters may help significantly, or I may discover they are the equivalent of FM-2 Wildcats. If you readers know more, speak up.

At some point, the Allies will pivot to a new theater, primarily due to the Strategic Bombing difficulties, as you point out. I am somewhat optimistic that there will come a day when the Allies can succeed to some degree against Japanese air power. To reach that point, I think Erik will have to suffer a lot of losses first. I think proximity is a key component - getting Erik's big bases within good Army fighter and bomber range.

As you note, the Hokkaido bases are worth alot of points themselves. In addiition, Hokkaido industry is worth a fair amount. It is possible to target industry when an Allied army is sitting atop a base and Erik no longer posts fighters there.

(in reply to jwolf)

Post #: 2971

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 2:52:56 PM

jwolf

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quote:

It is possible to target industry when an Allied army is sitting atop a base and Erik no longer posts fighters there.

This is during the siege but before conquest, right? That is, you don't get strat points for industry just by capturing a base, but only by actually bombing it?

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2972

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 2:56:02 PM

Canoerebel

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Right.

Allied bombers long ago took out most Kushiro industry. There are about 151 Resource points left. Before the base falls, Allied bombers will target those. Erik no longer has fighters based at Kushiro and LRCAP is his achille's heel, so that should work.

If the Allies take Kushiro, they'll then move on Bihoro. I'm not yet sure if they'll then move on Sapporo and the rest of Hokkaido. I may instead focus on wrapping up the Kuriles and preparing for the activities elsewhere. At the moment, advancing to Sapporo seems like it would be sending a schooner into a hurricane.

(in reply to jwolf)

Post #: 2973

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 3:19:18 PM

Canoerebel

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I don't know whether I can do a good job explaining the mounting hysteria I experienced last night, but here's a flow-chart of how what seemed to be a routine turn morphed into a frenzy.

1. Erik sent the turn at 7 a.m. I have church on Sunday mornings, so I did nothing more than scan over the written Combat Report. It was straightforward and indicated a decent day for the Allies - dodging major enemy blows and eradicating a tank regiment in a key hex.
2. The concept for the next turn played in the back of my mind until I finally had time to sit down with it, starting at 3 p.m. At its heart, the Allied turn was simple: DS to remain on station near Bihoro, replenishing from AEs and providing protection for combat vessels inbound from Shikuka and empties returning from the front to Shikuka. There would be some air activity vs. ground units at Bihoro and the airfield at Kushiro. Pretty simple turn.
3. Orders were entered before 6 p.m., when I had evening plans.
4. I sat down at the game again around 9 p.m., for a final review before sending the turn to Erik. Part of the review meant looking at Erik's carriers and what they might be capable of doing.
5. It seemed possible that Erik might send an all-out sweep vs. Shikuka, followed by a carrier strike against the host of shipping there (the plan would be very similar to what he tried on the 10th near Kushiro).
6. Ordinarily, that wouldn't bother me, because I've had 1,000 fighters at Shikuka. Erik knows it and has only tried the base once in the last six months. That was about two weeks back, and he got a bloody nose.
7. Since then, alot of my best Navy fighters have reported to Death Star. In their place are a legion of FM-2 Wildcats (plus a fair number of good Army and Marine fighters). From Erik's perspective, the base bristles as it always has. But that's alot of smoke and mirrors.
8. If he did send an all-out strike, I'd lose hundreds of sorry fighters with green pilots and he'd have a shot at my shipping.
9. The more I thought about it, the more convinced I became that this was possible, likely, really likely! It became a late-night mania, feeding on itself.
10. I came up with a plan to counter it. Now, in the light of day, I think I overreacted. I like the little strike ambush set up from Toyohara airfield. It might run into a CAP trap, but it's worth changing the look of things on occasion to keep Erik honest. What I don't like is that I sortied 300 ships from Shikuka's port, many of them ordered to flank speed to rendezvous with DS, eight hexes distant. That's going to be a rag-tag assemblage of ships, some not capable of making 8 hexes. So I'll have alot of vulnerable shipping in the open. Generally, Erik doesn't cover these waters, due to his concerns about Allied CAP traps. But that's no guarantee that he wasn't orchestrating something on his own. I think I'd have been better to leave the ships disbanded in port, protected by 300+ flak.
11. Things may get ugly tomorrow or they could turn out fine. I'm confident that DS and the main invasion forces are secure.
12. I'm anxious to see how the deliberate attack at Kushiro goes. If forts drop to 5, then the Allies may be on course to take the base before Erik can bring in reinforcements.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/22/2018 3:21:06 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2974

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 3:38:44 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

That should ... in theory ... open up opportunities for advances in SE Asia, Indonesia, Philippines etc and maybe that could be the key to ultimate victory.
.
.
.
At some point, the Allies will pivot to a new theater, primarily due to the Strategic Bombing difficulties, as you point out. I am somewhat optimistic that there will come a day when the Allies can succeed to some degree against Japanese air power. To reach that point, I think Erik will have to suffer a lot of losses first. I think proximity is a key component - getting Erik's big bases within good Army fighter and bomber range.

That was what I meant about using the paratroopers. If you can do that with a few bases elsewhere, you might be able to capture some decent or potentially decent airfields where the threat of attack bombers against his shipping could hurt. Also, by interfering with his Naval Search and ASW missions, you could make it easier on the Silent Service and raiding destroyer task forces. This way you could potentially thin his fighter horde on the Home Islands or he would then concede air superiority over the newly conquered areas. A small LRCAP with drop tank equipped fighters over the destroyers could potentially take down a few of his search planes.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2975

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 3:48:13 PM

Canoerebel

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All the little points add up but pale in comparison to the big things.

The Allies cannot win the war unless they can engage in Strategic Bombing efficiently. That's a function of aircraft and pilot quality and quantity, plus proximity to enemy targets.

I have decent proximity at the moment, and the Hokkaido campaign should provide a boost. As for aircraft quality and quantity, Russian activation and later generation Western fighters may help.

(in reply to RangerJoe)

Post #: 2976

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 3:52:29 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: dave sindel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I may be spending more time on this turn than any I've ever had. The turn is important, but it's not necessarily the most important ever. It's just that there are massive numbers of variables. If I make a call it requires 10,000 clicks. If I change my mind....

I'm playing with a hypothesis - not relying upon it but studying it. In most recent advances by Death Star, strike aircraft have been at limited range. In this instance, they're set to zero (the chance of an overwhelming CAP-trap debacle are far greater than a carrier battle). DS hasn't reacted when I've limited strike range, making me wonder if carriers won't react if doing so still won't bring them within range of launching a strike. But it seems to much to expect that the designers would have thought that deeply into strike mechanics, so I'm a bit skeptical. And I'm not sure there's been a time when a reaction has been possible. Right now, and enemy carrier TF is 10 hexes from DS, so Erik might be trying to coax one.

I've been playing under the assumption that DS can (and probably will have to) withstand at least one all-out, mega air strike. In the current turn, Erik lost 400 aircraft (I lost 200), which might've dampened his enthusiasm. But he may be trying for that reaction, hoping for an overwhelming attack. I think I'm going to keep DS in place, or move it one hex (to just SW of Kushiro) to allow more supplies to unload. Pucker time.

I am most interested in how your hypothesis on carrier reaction works out. In my 2 ongoing PBEM contests, carrier reactions in both games have caused me an extensive amount of trouble...

I'm back.

Availability of strike aircraft is considered as part of the carrier reaction. Presumably, if you have no strike craft available, the carriers won't react. I don't know if standing them down functions in basically the same way - one would think so, but who knows?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I consider it a weak hypothesis (surely the developers didn't think this deeply into possible reaction scenarios), but it's worth testing.

I actually think this is precisely the kind of thing coders (who have ever had to deal with fixing any bugs/oversights) would think of.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

indeed. After 40 years or so I have decided to reread the books. About halfway thorough. Truly a man can not cross the same river twice. It is now a different thing than it was in my younger days.
saddle up and carry on!

I re-read them a couple of months ago, for the first time. My first read of them was shortly before the movies came out. I found them even more enjoyable after having seen the movies a gazillion times.

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I re-read my favorite books regularly. Every few years or thereabouts. Either I don't have a great memory or I'm not paying careful attention while reading.

I didn't read Tolkien until after I saw the first Lord movie, solo, in a nearly empty theater, after it had been out awhile. The movie was so magnificient (IMO) that it prompted me to read all the books. I'm not a fan of "fantasy," but I love those books and the movies. Well done.

Tolkien started writing the book in 1937 as a commentary on the nature of war, after his experience in WWI. He did not complete the book until after WWII and he brought in some notions about what drives nations to that kind of evil.
Some claim that the "One Ring" represented Nazi philosophies as a whole and that the rings of power represented the individual elements (racism, suppression of truth, scapegoats, prosperity at the expense of moral turpitude) that drove a people to support their evil, mad ruler.

The quest for complete power over the world is the "One Ring". It took destruction of the Nazi regime and all its elements of power over the people to destroy the danger of one cruel leader running the world. But the notion is still out there, in several places around the world.

Tolkien always denied that he intended any kind of allegory, and I think even insisted in a foreword to the books (in my copy, at least) that he did his best to keep it out. But also acknowledged that in books that are, in essence, about mortality and "the Machine" (IIRC his term, meaning industry and progress)... of course it's going to be easy to compare to wars.

Of course, that doesn't mean that it can't be seen as allegory.

As for Dickens... I think David Copperfield was actually one of those that I enjoyed, even as an adolescent, and I think I read it twice. Hated Oliver Twist, though.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Russia will activate in six months. My primary long-range objective is to make sure that Western Allied campaigns and Russian campaigns are synergistic.

I'm not yet sure how strong the Russian air force will be. Russian fighters may help significantly, or I may discover they are the equivalent of FM-2 Wildcats. If you readers know more, speak up.

Russian fighters are underwhelming. You will find them of minimal use, and of virtually no offensive use. You may be able to defend some important bases, but that's about it.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Allies cannot win the war unless they can engage in Strategic Bombing efficiently. That's a function of aircraft and pilot quality and quantity, plus proximity to enemy targets.

I've done it without engaging in any strategic bombing. But it requires a lot more territory than you have, and a lot more naval losses for Japan.

(in reply to dave sindel)

Post #: 2977

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 4:01:26 PM

Mike Solli

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm not yet sure how strong the Russian air force will be. Russian fighters may help significantly, or I may discover they are the equivalent of FM-2 Wildcats. If you readers know more, speak up.

Quantity is a quality all its own...

_____________________________

Created by the amazing Dixie

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Post #: 2978

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 4:42:42 PM

Canoerebel

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"I've done it without engaging in any strategic bombing. But it requires a lot more territory than you have, and a lot more naval losses for Japan."

I meant in this game. I don't foresee the Allies winning short of strategic bombing, given current force disposition and the time/resources/losses it would take to change the paradigm.

For better or worse, Strategic Bombing is the key.

(in reply to Mike Solli)

Post #: 2979

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 4:45:22 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

Quantity is a quality all its own...

That is what Joseph Stalin said and it is true. I haven't got that far against the computer since it always quits before the Soviet activation but I think that the best aircraft might be the IL-2/10 with its armor rating of 2. It is very short range but it should be very good for low level attacks.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

�Illegitemus non carborundum est (�Don�t let the bastards grind you down�).�
― Julia Child

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Post #: 2980

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 7:52:16 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

Quantity is a quality all its own...

That is what Joseph Stalin said and it is true. I haven't got that far against the computer since it always quits before the Soviet activation but I think that the best aircraft might be the IL-2/10 with its armor rating of 2. It is very short range but it should be very good for low level attacks.

This is not really my (limited) experience. Armor 2 yes, extremely short range and anemic payload also yes. Still dies in numbers in low level attacks, also yes.

It's that last bit that kills it for me.

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Post #: 2981

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 11:41:33 PM

Canoerebel

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2/12/45

Kushiro D+4: My night terrors didn't materialize, but the dizzying, rollicking campaign continues in all its complexities, challenges, and opportunities.

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Post #: 2982

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/22/2018 11:49:26 PM

Canoerebel

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2/12/45

Kushiro D+4: A surprising result at Kushiro today. It's cause for celebration, but the enthusiasm is dampened by the shadow of Japanese fighter superiority.

In the air, the war is flipped. The Japanese are the Allies in 1945, and vice versa.

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Post #: 2983

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/23/2018 1:32:35 AM

Lokasenna

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...what is the DL like on all of your subs?

If my opponent had so many subs sitting there, half of them would already be heading back to base from 250kg bomb damage. I only see a few of yours off to the east and it's hard to tell if they're coming/going/picketing.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2984

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/23/2018 8:59:59 AM

Canoerebel

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Detection levels are nil to low single digits, even for the subs that just moved into the sea between Hokkaido and Honshu.

You're not the first experienced player to look at the "checkerboard" and conclude, "That wouldn't happen if I were the IJ player." Another experienced player made that observation in my game with John III, offering this: "You won't be able to do that against Obvert."

But it's not nearly as vulnerable as it looks. I generally keep my subs just out of detection range, to prevent high losses. Erik usually limits his patrols/ASW flights, to minimize the huge losses he otherwise incurs from Allied CAP. This line of "no detection/no molestation" is fluid. Sometimes my subs nose too far forward.

But this deployment allows me to keep track of enemy detection levels, which is useful info. It also allows me to "flood the zone" at important intervals. Once such was here, as the Allies invaded Kushiro. The ojbective was to give Erik another reason to be cautious with his combat ships. And the presence of DS took a heavy toll on Erik's search craft.

So, temporarily, my subs are further forward than ordinary. They'll pull back a bit soon.

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Post #: 2985

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/23/2018 9:06:55 AM

Canoerebel

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I'm working on D+5 turn now, here in the pre-dawn hours, with a couple of thoughts:

1. The Battle of Kushiro has been decided, barring the (unlikely) possibility that Erik substantially reinforces by sea.
2. Erik probably realizes this. At this point, I his objective may be to seize control of one of the adjacent hexes, evicting all Allied units, so that his Kushiro garrison has a valid path of retreat.
3. The Allies will strongly contest the inland clear hex today, but I think Erik will take control of it today or tomorrow. My bombers will try to savage his army beyond the ability to fight, but enemy fighters are probably too tough and will prevent that from happening.
4. If ERik's Kushiro troops do retreat, that helps me in one case - my troops outside Kushiro will then have a valid path of retreat and won't be subject to destruction.
5. My army at Kushiro is in very good shape after that big attack. The infantry will rest one or two days. A fair bit of the armor will attack again today.
6. Taking Kushiro won't necessarily doom Bihoro. Erik has rail lines and can bring in reinforcements. But they'll be subject to a murderous bombardment, so I don't know if he'll defend there or not.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/23/2018 9:09:18 AM >

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Post #: 2986

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 5:54:14 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: I have been looking forward to this turn. The Allied plan seemed straightforward, uncomplicated, and likely to play to Allied strengths and to avoid Japanese advantages.

I expected things to unfold something like this:

1. BB Arkansas TF to bombard Kushiro.
2. APD TF to unload some infantry at Kushiro to provoke enemy auto-bombardment.
3. Major Allied sweeps over hex forecast to be massively protected by enemy CAP.
4. Allied 4EB to then hit enemy units in that hex, causing heavy losses and/or disruption.
5. Enemy units in that hex outnumbered mine significantly but might be too disrupted to succeed in attacking.
6. Self-destructive IJ bombardment at Kushiro.
7. Allied armor to attack at Kushiro, keeping the enemy garrison frazzled while Allied infantry took a day of rest.

The turn unfolded just about perfectly. Nothing decisive happened, but the plan survived contact with the enemy and was a good one.

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Post #: 2987

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 6:21:30 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Nothing to brag about here, but the messages (not included below) indicate the major infantry units were targeted by the guns, thus contributing to disruption.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 6:24:43 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Two APDs bring in some infantry. This is designed to trigger an auto-bombardment. From prior experience, the disablements my guys incur in landing are more than offset by the damage the Japanese will take in bombarding.

As usual, the APDs don't tangle with enemy shore guns.

Most of my APDs are lifting infantry to the clear hex NE of Kushiro.

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Post #: 2989

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 6:31:56 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: As expected, Erik posts mega-CAP over his army in the clear hex NW of Kushiro. Weather cooperates, so all Allied fighter squadrons ordered to sweep do so. The morning fights are long and tiring, with the Allies coming out somewhat ahead (LRCAP is the one mission Erik's fighters seem to struggle with). The Japanese CAP will eventually wear down to nothing...and it's then that Allied bombers targeting the ground troops will arrive.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 6:37:33 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: The sudden move by DS entices some enemy strike aircraft to sortie, with predictable results. The same kind of thing happened down in the Andaman Sea, where an RN carrier TF serving a decoy mission drew some unescorted Jake strikes. These one-sided affairs will inflate Erik's aircraft losses on the day, but its the fighters that are key.

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Post #: 2991

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 6:41:20 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: A modest number of enemy bombers fly ground-attack missions against my infantry units in the non-base hexes, doing a decent amount of damage. I didn't post CAP, because any enemy sweeps would tear them to shreds, and all my available fighters are sweeping the key central hex.

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Post #: 2992

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 6:44:48 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Erik employs the same strategy, but only a modest number of his bombers target this hex, while I've ordered all-out strikes. I figure my guys will take a whacking, but that his might take more - and his guys are attacking, which can be a real problem if disruption is high.

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Post #: 2993

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 6:50:00 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Allied sweeps having clear the air of opposition, Allied bombers arrive to hit the enemy ground units. The first missions coming in are PBY Liberators and B-24s at 6k. The strikes are effective but not overwhelming, by any means.

This is the largest strike of the day. It, too, is not overwhelming, probably due to altitude (the Superforts are at 22k).

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Post #: 2994

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 7:00:23 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Strong Japanese army manages only a 1:1 against the motley crew of Allied units in this open hex and fail to dislodge them. I think only a part of the enemy army attack (some probably arrived during the turn).

I think we'll have a repeat battle here tomorrow.

The strength of the enemy army here suggests that Erik probably isn't advancing a strong force to the coastal hex, one hex NE of Kushiro. I have a stronger force there; some of those units are making for the contested hex.

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Post #: 2995

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 7:09:28 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Japanese bombardment at Kushiro is markedly self=destructive.

Follow-on attack by four Allied armored battalions also achieves good results. I didn't get a screen capture of the latter,
but the details from the Combat Report:

Ground combat at Kushiro (123,53)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 17027 troops, 580 guns, 1077 vehicles, Assault Value = 3744
Defending force 58384 troops, 559 guns, 151 vehicles, Assault Value = 1069

Allied adjusted assault: 255
Japanese adjusted defense: 1543

Allied assault odds: 1 to 6 (fort level 5)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-)

Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
267 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 21 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 12 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 14 (9 destroyed, 5 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Vehicles lost 73 (3 destroyed, 70 disabled)

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/24/2018 7:10:24 PM >

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Post #: 2996

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 7:16:45 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Air Losses: A rare air victory for the Allies. My guys were going up against Erik's first team, so this is meaningful.

But, the numbers flatter to deceive. As noted before, Erik's losses are inflated by lesser frames lost mainly in strikes vs. DS and RN DS. The fighter losses are the true indicator of the outcome, and that's pretty much a 1:1 tally.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 7:22:54 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Kushiro D+5: Here are three representative divisions at Kushiro. The first thing I looked at on opening the file (after Air Losses) was the condition of my ground units. Can they attack tomorrow? Disruption and fatigue are still a bit elevated. I'll likely rest them another day, in the meantime trying to send in more troops via APD and to attack with some armor.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/24/2018 9:43:15 PM

Canoerebel

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2/13/45

Sub Losses: The Allies have lost two subs in NoPac in the past two months, despite the proximity of so many to the Home Islands. That's a great return on value, because I get a lot of info from those subs - and they're close by in the event I need to/want to "flood the zone," as with the Kushiro invasion.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 2999

RE: Notes from a Small Island - 10/25/2018 2:40:50 AM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Weather permitting, tomorrow should be a repeat for the Allies: heavy sweeps of the contested hex, followed by nearly all 4EB (this time all set to 9k). If weather permits, I think damage to the enemy troops should be substantial.

Erik couldn't have liked what happened today, so I think he'll switch up tomorrow. His fighters have been flying alot of sweep and LRCAP missions, so they should be tuckered out. He might even stand many down.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 3000