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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:03:53 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Kushiro D+10: Fast BB bombardment of Bihoro does a decent job of targeting the airfield. I thought Erik might use it, after my slow BB bombardment yesterday didn't touch it, but it looks like no aircraft there.

I set this BB TF to "range 3," the first time I've ever used a setting other than the default "0." I'm not sure if that helped, hurt, or contributed nothing.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:09:57 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Bihoro: Slow BB TF hits Bihoro too (set at the usual "0"). Little damage done.

I'm hoping Erik will conclude that Bihoro is too exposed to defend. He has a week army there now that may (or may not) be getting beat up by the bombardments. He has a very battered army inbound from the contested hex. He's going to lose an army at Kushiro.

I'm not sure I can take Bihoro if he elects to defend it hard, mainly because my fighter corps is pretty ragged. If I can bluff my way to the base, great.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:15:16 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Kushiro D+10: Another fast transport landing. I think I did this on every D+ day, except possibly one. It definitely played a major role in taking the base - this, successfully sealing the base from reinforcements, and basically controlling the seas were key parts of the plan.

I've had frank and good discussions with Erik about everything. He and I are A-Okay about everything going on in the game. We're enjoying the match. It's tough and taut and well-fought. I'm fortunate to be facing an opponent of his caliber, both as a player and as a man.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:19:19 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Kushiro D+10: Lone Allied DD finds light opposition. Yesterday's raid saw all the potential victims flee - Erik using low threat threshold and low aggression captains to avoid danger.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:27:09 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Kushiro D+10: Erik beefed up CAP over the contested hex, to about 300 good fighters. The result was similar to yesterday - lots of Allied sweeps, tough fighting, slow degradation of enemy fighters numbers. The combat only slightly favored the Allied fighters (maybe 1.2:1).

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:36:38 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Contested Hex: Allied sweeps did a pretty darned good job of clearing out opposition, but there's a bit remaining to mix it up with the first sizeable Allied raid of the day.

You all know my fighter woes, but 4EB losses have been about nil during this tough campaign.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:43:15 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Contested Hex: The first raid wore out enemy fighters; the second faces no opposition and scores well. But enemy losses continue mainly as disablements rather than wholesale destruction. The enemy stack is battered and won't be in condition to fight when it reaches Bihoro, but I'm beginning to think it will reach it without extensive losses. I'll keep working the sweep/raid combo, but after about seven days, my guys increasingly require rest and rotation.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:45:51 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Contested Hex: Another half-dozen or so smaller raids come in, facing little or no opposition, doing modest damage that cumulatively mean a bit.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/3/2018 11:57:21 PM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Bihoro: Little Allied detachment undergoes only a bombardment today - Erik is leery of ordering an attack, because he knows my stack is inbound. It's about three days out, though, so he might order some infantry to attack.

No enemy reinforcements here yet. He can't abandon the base until his beleaguered contested hex stack arrives, so I don't know his intentions yet. But if meaningful infantry doesn't arrive in the next three or four days, he's probably leaning towards abandoning the base.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 12:08:44 AM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Kushiro D+10: The powerful Allied army takes this key base from a Japanese army isolated and battered.

This plan went about perfectly. Isolated Kushiro by land was key, but isolating it by sea was also important as were the auto bombardments.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 12:17:32 AM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

Air Losses: Not a decisive day, but in terms of forward fighters numbers, the Japanese lost about 75, the Allies about 30.

No Superfort losses, no B-24J losses. So this campaign has gone exceedingly well for the bombers, but the fragile fighter corps has suffered meaningful losses. Thinness is their new watchword.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/4/2018 12:18:05 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 6:07:54 AM

BBfanboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/18/45

Bihoro: Slow BB TF hits Bihoro too (set at the usual "0"). Little damage done.

I'm hoping Erik will conclude that Bihoro is too exposed to defend. He has a week army there now that may (or may not) be getting beat up by the bombardments. He has a very battered army inbound from the contested hex. He's going to lose an army at Kushiro.

I'm not sure I can take Bihoro if he elects to defend it hard, mainly because my fighter corps is pretty ragged. If I can bluff my way to the base, great.

Alfred clarified a lot of stuff about bombardments a couple of months ago. If you do not set "Escorts Bombard", the TF will only close in to 15,000 yards no matter what you set as the bombardment distance. If you allow Escorts to bombard, the TF will approach as close as 6,000 yards.

Those limits are a bit squishy so a very aggressive captain may take his ship in a bit closer than the rest. Presumably, if you set your stand off distance to something beyond the 6K or 15K normal bombardment thresholds, the TF commander will obey that.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 11:31:10 AM

Canoerebel

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Thanks, BBfanboy. I always bombard with Escorts "On", so your information is helpful.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 11:38:38 AM

Canoerebel

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2/18/45

NoPac: The Kushiro plan went about as smoothly as possible. It was fun, important, and very successful.

But the Allied fighter corps is out of gas. It can't sustain any further sustained major campaigns (it would take 3:1 or better results in order to justify the damage incurred, and the best results I'm getting are more like 1:5:1).

There is a real risk of Erik going on a sustained fighter campaign now, targeting even Shukuka. There is a chance I won't be able to defend anywhere, so that I have to pull out basically all shipping.

He can't gain sweeps over Death Star as long as its at sea, so there's probably no risk of him regaining the territory he's lost, as long as DS is in the vicinity. But what if DS leaves for a month or more to handle a campaign on the other side of Japan?

I have about a month to sort through these questions, as it should take about that long to clean up the remaining Kuriles. I need to come up with a sensible way to prosecute the war. THe most "outlandish" (and therfore unlikely) option would be to hunker down in NoPac until the Russians activate. That's kind of the "do nothing" option that must be considered in an Environmental Impact Statement. I won't do that.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 12:18:29 PM

BBfanboy

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Sounds like you caught a tiger by the tail! Someone mentioned a new batch of P-47s coming soon, hopefully that will be enough to keep control of the air.

I also think his fighter corps is even more hard-pressed than yours. You could rest half your fighters and let the plentiful bombers suffer his fighters but also wear them out. The down side is the VPs loss for bombers vs fighters.

In all the books I read about battles/campaigns, it was often the case that both sides were near giving up because of losses/deterioration of their situation, and the side that persisted a little longer won. This looks like one of those situations to me.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 1:12:55 PM

Canoerebel

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The information on the map (number of enemy fighters is huge) and apparent quality of enemy frames and pilots lead me to believe Erik is winning the air war. But my knowledge of Japanese capabilities is low. Perhaps you're right, and Erik is teetering on the brink of defeat. That would come as quite a surprise.

We're on a real knife edge for the game. If Erik's air force is a strong as I think it is, the game may be unbalance in his favor. He may be able to blast through any defense I put up anywhere, making it difficult or possibly impossible for Death Star to leave the Sea of Oktohsk for any meaningful period of time, at least for months into the future. Conceivably, the game clock could count down with little progress.

On the flip side, if the Allies somehow had worn through Japanese fighter corps, there would be nothing stopping the game from slipping off the other side of that knife edge. The naval war is mostly decided, and the Allies have the mobility and ground strength to go and do.

Probably, as is usually the case, the truth lies somewhere in between. We'll both probably forge on, much the way we've been doing, hoping for a crippling defeat.

But the clock and Victory Points begin to favor Japan if the snowball doesn't begin rolling downhill fairly soon.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 3:04:56 PM

Bullwinkle58

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The problem you face is usually addressed by strategic bombing of Japanese primary fighter production infrastructure. You simply will not be able to shoot down enough given a player of his caliber with the operating specs found in the game (the P-51 in particular is under-powered stats-wise when Japan has 90 Air pilots to oppose.) Not with historic Allied OOBs that can't be altered.

Hoping he runs short of supply to keep his fighter units in planes is nice, but may not work and won't work quickly. You need to destroy his factories.

Your LCUs are far superior to his. Use DS to keep them supplied, and press on in the land campaign. Sweeping is a luxury you can't afford.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 7:33:34 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

Hoping he runs short of supply to keep his fighter units in planes is nice, but may not work and won't work quickly. You need to destroy his factories.

Maybe continue to sweep the hex, but a nice night raid against the airbase(s) that the fighters are coming from along with a raid against his factories. Either engine factories for his best fighters or the airframe factories. If nothing else, a large manpower raid against a city with relative few night defenses. Especially if you see any night fighters during the day.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/4/2018 11:16:10 PM

crsutton

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I think you will find that as long as supply has flowed into the economy, the Japanese player can produce aircraft and never run short. Pilots do not seem to be an issue either. My last campaign concluded on 8/45 with my opponents pools full of aircraft and high quality pilots. But I played to shut of his oil and he had nothing left as far as supply goes. If you did not cut off the flow of supple from the DEI, you are still going to win, but you will just have to do some more grinding to get there.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 3:08:57 AM

JeffroK

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You think you are bested in the air which then places your Navy at threat, so use the arm which cant be shot down or sunk.

Grind forward with your ground forces, it seems they are the only arm where you are ascendant. IMVHO, taking any more Kurile islands is a waste unless one is especially threatening or has been built up into a very strong base for your air & Navy.
Don't worry about the terrain too much, push forward on the main rail line to Ashigawa/Sapporo and kill his troops. Add some flanking thrusts to keep him honest or pick up cheap ground In the mean time interdict any reinforcements so that, at best, he is airlifting infantry only.
It wont be a fast thrust, more in the style of Grant which you seem to be adept at, and after all, Grant won in the end.

I'd like to add the need to have a serious 2nd front, if the Red Army is still 5-6 mths away there may be time to put a dent into the oil supply and pick up some easier VP's.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 8:42:44 AM

GetAssista

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton
I think you will find that as long as supply has flowed into the economy, the Japanese player can produce aircraft and never run short. Pilots do not seem to be an issue either. My last campaign concluded on 8/45 with my opponents pools full of aircraft and high quality pilots. But I played to shut of his oil and he had nothing left as far as supply goes. If you did not cut off the flow of supple from the DEI, you are still going to win, but you will just have to do some more grinding to get there.

It all comes to the quality of the airframes. Japan can stock on middle war airframes in the pools, and the likes of George/Frank-a/Zero A6M5x/Tojos may never run out indeed. However, it is not possible to produce a healthy stock of later war airframes because Japan just doesn't have enough time between the moment research ends and the heat starts. And it is those planes (Sam/Frank-r/Ki-83/Shinden) that are the most competitive in the air. Bombing those factories is essential for reducing Japan's CAP strength.
If Japan had unlimited supply for repairs, bombing out a 30-size factory would prevent the production of ~15 airframes cumulatively and the factory would've been back online in a month. But Japan does not have that supply in 45, and usually chooses to not repair in the view of future bombings. This means minus 30 modern planes a month forever. With the scale of late war air battles, it can add up real quick

P.S. Also, in my favourite AAR of all times Nemo scolded GreyJoy exactly for that - not concentrating his 4Es against Rader's fighter factories

< Message edited by GetAssista -- 11/5/2018 8:44:36 AM >

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 12:43:58 PM

Canoerebel

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One of the challenges of the game, when keeping an AAR, is receiving and evaluating comments from Ye Peanut Gallery. Oftentimes, the advice/input can be contradictory. In my early years, the contradictions were very hard to resolve, because I didn't have enough experience to judge who might be right or wrong on a particular issue. I have much more experience now, but the gaps in my knowledge about the Japanese economy and production still leave me uncertain about important things.

Here I seem to be getting two different messages: (1) forget it - the Japanese economy has had far too much time and freedom to bring in resources/fuel; you'll never be able to really hamper fighter production at this late date; and (2) the draw on supply is so great for Japan that Erik doesn't have unlimited fighter production and might be on the verge of collapse even as we speak.

Based upon what I do know, I think the truth probably lies closer to (1), in part because Erik is such a gifted player. He knows how to maximize things and will have taken full advantage of everything he can. I doubt he's anywhere close to exhausting good fighter frames and pilots. I think the Allies would run out of fighters and bombers long before Erik would. I think I can fatally cripple the Allies by pursuing any kind of sustained air campaign that yields less than 2:1 or 3:1 return on the investment.

To this point, bombing Erik's key industry (fighters, engines) has been woefully disadvantageous. He knows where to position his AA and night fighters (and day fighters). This results in heavy, heavy losses to the Superforts - far beyond what meager hits are scored. If I started today to target those industries, I think I'd lose 50 4EB for each hit scored. In a month, I'd have no 4EB left and Erik's fighter production would be barely impacted.

If the balance of the campaign for Bihoro goes well, I have some ideas for strategic bombing to try out. It should offer some improvement, but Erik will adjust fast before the Allies accomplish anything major.

In the meantime, all kinds of things will be going on that may offer clues as to whehter Erik is or isn't hurting, and I'll make adjustments if opportunities seem to arise. If the air war remains as is, there are major plans in the medium term to open up new fronts.

Regarding the Kuriles, those remaining islands have to be taken. Erik knows how to use them to cause all kinds of havoc, and has done so from time to time. But once they are taken, the Allies have a largely open LOC between Shikuka and the Aluetians/West Coast. That's a tremendous advantage. My troops are fully prepped or are prepping for each base, and I don't think the five invasions will cost much or take long.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:01:02 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Kushiro wrapped up yesterday, but the ground campaign in Hokkaido is complex and interesting. And today's air war was about as decisively in favor of the Allies as possible. I think the results are lopsided enough that I could continue under these conditions, but in a few turns, Erik's army will leave the contested hex, so he'll be able to stop his LRCAP disadvantage. I doubt he'll voluntarily step into another such arrangement.

Bihoro: The slow-BB bombardments never touch Bihoro's airfield, probably because Erik has stiff shore guns stationed here. They do hit the ground troops, which aren't particularly strong. I'll keep this up and add more oomph, because I'm hoping Erik will decide Bihoro isn't defensible. I hope he decides that, because I may have serious issues if he leans the other way. So he'll probably lean the other way.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:07:36 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Contested Hex: The first Allied sweepers are F4U-1As from Death Star. Nearly 500 enemy fighters are posted over the hex - the most I've seen in about four or five days. I don't know if my sweepers can handle such large numbers, given the results of the past two days, when they couldn't handle 250 fighters. So I'm already worried about the 4EB - they're coming in without escorts today.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:11:17 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Another sweep from Death Star. Sometimes, the F4U-1D doesn't perform as well as the -1C, but not this time.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:14:41 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Usually Hellcats are chewed up by good enemy land-based fighters, but not when those land-based fighters are on LRCAP missions. Even the much-maligned P-38L can score well against the finest enemy fighters on LRCAP.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:18:30 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Hellcats score a 2:1 victory against good enemy fighters, though the sample size is small. The problem is this: when Ops losses are factored in, 2:1 victories often turn into 1.2:1 victories, but my fighter pools are thin while Erik's are (seemingly, from my perspective as beleaguered Allied player) nearly inexaustible.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:22:20 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Good -1Ds from Death Star score an astounding 15:1 victory. In past weeks, these kind of results often seem to "fall apart" under the cold, hard light of day. It's then, when I look at the Air Losses table and at my fighter pools, that the lament becomes, "I cannot afford another such victory!"

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:26:34 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Contested Hex: Another solid win. The weather cooperated wonderfully, allowing DS fighters to sweep first, before the Army fighters and before the bombers come in. The enemy CAP is now noticeably reduced. To this point, DS has contributed less than 200 fighters (I think), but they've done great work. I hope Erik takes note that it's only a small percentage of DS fighters. I don't want him to get bold tomorrow, because I want to try something a bit unusual.

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RE: Notes from a Small Island - 11/5/2018 1:30:26 PM

Canoerebel

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2/19/45

Contested Hex: The first land-based sweep does pretty well. But Death Star's fighters did an excellent job - 120 of them sortied. By the time they were finished, enemy fighter CAP had diminished from nearly 500 fighters to 130.