RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies)

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RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 10:55:53 AM

Lowpe

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A look at the major western Allied ground losses:

Destroyed at Ceylon

18th British Division
100th Indian Bde
44th Indian Bde
16th Aus Bde
17th Aus Bde
99th Indian Bde
45th Indian Bde
98th Indian Bde

Destroyed at Tabby

2nd Marine Division
24th Infantry Division
34th Combat Engineer Rgt
2nd USMC Tank Bn
1st Marine Raider Bn

Destroyed at Attu

27th Infantry Division
41st Infantry Division
193rd Tank Bn

Trapped at Adak

25th Infantry Division
201st(Sep) Infantry Regiment
87th Mountain Regiment
1st/102nd Infantry Battalion
57th Coastal Artillery Regiment
7th Base Group
2nd Marine Defense Battalion
276th Coastal Artillery Battalion
Fort Lewis
6th Port Maint Engineer Battalion
95th Coast AA Regiment
94th Coast AA Regiment
21st Port Maint Engineer Battalion
2nd Pioneer Battalion
110th Cmbt Engineer Battalion
2nd AmphTrac Engineer Battalion
102nd Cmbt Engineer Regiment
154th Field Artillery Battalion
53rd (Sep) Infantry Rgt /2

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 871

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:05:42 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It looks like Wargmr was incredibly passive fighting in the air

I wouldn't say that, he tried very hard....

with respect to fighters:

I got extremely lucky in destroying his entire P38F force on the ground with IJN bombardments before they could fly even one mission. I lost track of the number of times my naval bombardments savaged Allied fighters on the ground....I constantly caught them in the Aleutians, in Burma, in India, in Ceylon. A side effect of naval bombardment against squadrons is that pilot morale gets absolutely shattered....

and when he did manage to fly large sweeps, my low layered fighters answered the call.

with respect to heavy bombers:

Allied heavy bombers suffered somewhat the same getting shattered by IJN bombardments in the Aleutians, and only started to recover over Ceylon in Jan of 43.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 872

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:14:54 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I enjoyed reading pages 1 through 8 tonight, which gave me a better feel for how things evolved and devolved (I've been casually reading the AAR for a long time but only seriously in the past few weeks).

But things are looking fine for the Allies in mid-42, when you post a graphic showing the Aluetians, one small Japanese outpost at Attu, and your note that you have no plans in that theater.

Glad you enjoyed it!

Up until the Tabby invasion of May, I was really starting to despair, as I hadn't inflicted any damage on the USN or Army and I was worried that if the Allies wait for Corsairs to arrive it would be very difficult for Japan to see 1945. But I had left the perimeter weak, but the reserves were getting into position to strike back and sigint was promising.

But, in May of 1942 Japan's perimeter was super weak held by lone 9 AV JNAF aviation units or 12AV shipping companies. Port Moresby wasn't taken, Darwin wasn't taken, Luzon was being cleaned up and Ceylon was just recently taken and troop withdraw there just started.

The Tabby Invasion was a complete surprise...I was looking primarily at the Marianas (almost undefended) and also at the Aleutians where Japanese SigInt had given me warnings of a buildup at Kodiak for a long time.

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/13/2019 11:16:45 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 873

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:17:58 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Congratulations on a job well done! There are a few lessons for the AFB regarding the timing and strength of counterattacks.

Cheers,
CB

Thanks very much, it was a very fun game that could have gone either way!

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)

Post #: 874

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:18:54 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Wargamr just sent this picture of Adak....

Look at all that supply!

Low forts. I forget. How high were they to start?

They were 5 before relentless bombardments stopped the building. Adak was a tough nut!

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 875

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:24:00 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

The VP tally for the last few months

Although during the game I was focused on his naval losses (and constant forward use of the USN in the Aleutians which you consistently made him pay for) as the decisive factor in turning the tide, it seems the land battles had a much larger impact on the VP outcome. I guess I'm curious how much of that is China, and how much is captured bases in the Aleutians and Ceylon (with higher VP cost troops) that the IJN made possible?

The land unit loss ratio is astounding! You lost so few VP for all of the territory gained and troops you destroyed.

Allied LCU losses: 17618
Japanese LCU losses: 474
-----------------------------
ratio ---------------- 37.17

While it's not as high a VP total, the ship loss ratio is just crushing!!

Allied ship losses: 4917
Japanese ship losses: 556
-----------------------------
ratio ---------------- 8.84

Get is right, there is a lot of Chinese LCU left on the map, I never took Changhsha or the base to the north (18 units total), 12 were in the mtns west of Paoshan; another 5 in a dot base east of Sian, a couple at Yenan, several in the mtns on the way to Urumchi (which I also never took), and 15+ around Nannning/Kweilin area.

Earlier I posted the major ground units destroyed at Ceylon, Tabby, and Attu. Plus I got the Burma Div in Burma.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 876

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:33:15 AM

Lowpe

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Some Misc Notes:

I used Emily/Mavis as deep recon this game a lot! It really prevented surprises especially in the Aleutians.

I used Iboats in an intelligence gathering role primarily. Early on I spotted the buildup of Kodiak... They also did good work at spotting Allied shipping...only at the very end did I use them to isolate Adak. I believe, but have no actual game understanding justification, to think that the Iboats increased/improved Japanese SigInt messages and warnings.

At one point I mention in the AAR that I thought the initial counter strike at Attu was 100% attributed to my reading/understanding of Japanese SigInt and reacting to it very early.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 877

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:44:31 AM

Lowpe

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Was going to load the game up and take a few end game position pictures, but I see I have to watch the replay all over again! Will do it later once I catch up with Obvert's game.

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Post #: 878

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 11:47:19 AM

Canoerebel

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My "passive" air war comment came from a graphic fairly early on - perhaps May or June of '42 - that showed the Allies had lost something like 500 aircraft total (and Japan a similarly low number). Neither side was fighting in the air, it seemed.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 879

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 12:22:19 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

My "passive" air war comment came from a graphic fairly early on - perhaps May or June of '42 - that showed the Allies had lost something like 500 aircraft total (and Japan a similarly low number). Neither side was fighting in the air, it seemed.

You are absolutely correct...after a little initial clash there was a big Sir Robyn pullback until May. I did catch most of the Flying Tigers on the ground at Rangoon I recall, but there was no normal cap traps over China in the early war and Burma was quiet. Absolutely no dogfights in the New Guinea area either.

It is interesting to note that Wargamr pulled off an even bigger Sir Robyn against Mr. Kane in their current game with almost 0 losses.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 880

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 12:28:30 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: GetAssista

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
Although during the game I was focused on his naval losses (and constant forward use of the USN in the Aleutians) as the decisive factor in turning the tide, it seems the land battles had a much larger impact on the VP outcome. I guess I'm curious how much of that is China, and how much is captured bases in the Aleutians and Ceylon that the IJN made possible?

Chinese starting army is worth roughly 8-9k VPs in standard scenarios. It was not destroyed in its entirety yet, but then revivals brought some new vps into the fray for Japan to harvest. So a guesstimate of about half of the final LCU VPs coming from China is not far off the mark

Cool. Something I've never bothered to look into since I've never thought about an early AV as a goal. Thanks!

I didn't either, it just happened. I did think about the potential of a 1944 AV however.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 881

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 12:39:26 PM

Canoerebel

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In any game where the Japanese player is willing to shoot for AV (and has the skill and experience to do so), Sir Robin looks like a dangerous strategy!

A lot of IJ players poo-poo AV. While it's certainly okay to prefer the long haul, their comments often imply a negative sentiment, as though they were contemplating petting a dog with the mange - "AV? That's something I don't even consider." But the possibility of AV adds a real tautness to the game that makes it even more exciting, IMO. I was really glad to see you take on the challenge.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 882

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 12:42:13 PM

witpqs

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Auto-victory! Congratulations!

I missed a few posts and was reading past it, like "Adak" - gee, I wonder why he sent a pic of Adak?

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 883

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:28:58 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In any game where the Japanese player is willing to shoot for AV (and has the skill and experience to do so), Sir Robin looks like a dangerous strategy!

A lot of IJ players poo-poo AV. While it's certainly okay to prefer the long haul, their comments often imply a negative sentiment, as though they were contemplating petting a dog with the mange - "AV? That's something I don't even consider." But the possibility of AV adds a real tautness to the game that makes it even more exciting, IMO. I was really glad to see you take on the challenge.

You always hope for an opponent wiling to try.

I'm sure it does make the beginning tense and interesting for the Allies.

In the long term it's a huge risk and drain on the Japanese economy, and it also opens so many attacking chances early to exploit for the Allies. For the Japanese to get an AV the Allies have to play their part by chosing to fight, and fighting forward. This wasn't a Sir Robin. There were a lot of important LCUs and ships (and valuable planes) placed in aggressive positions regularly. I think most often that's how AV occurs. The Allies try to bite off a bit too much early.

I think AV is an awesome part of the game, and very necessary. For myself I don't trust that I'd be able to make those risks pay off while still playing for the late game. Some tactically superior players have tried and failed (rader comes to mind). I have a lot of respect for those that try to make it work both tactically and economically as he did, and as Lowpe did here.

< Message edited by obvert -- 5/13/2019 1:30:22 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 884

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:32:17 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In any game where the Japanese player is willing to shoot for AV (and has the skill and experience to do so), Sir Robin looks like a dangerous strategy!

A lot of IJ players poo-poo AV. While it's certainly okay to prefer the long haul, their comments often imply a negative sentiment, as though they were contemplating petting a dog with the mange - "AV? That's something I don't even consider."

Sir Robin would have worked if the Allies used small limited probing early offensives (and the game would have probably been over Jan 1, 1945). But rather this early in the game, the Allies simply can't throw down 2 division and a ton of support units and think the island can hold once naval superiority is lost. Continually reinforcing that failure is what killed the Allies in this game, ihmo.

I think the reason why most Japanese players poo-poo AV is that it is viewed as an either or -- do I play for AV or for late game? In a scenario 1 game, Japan simply is starved economically and with ground troops. The only other player I can think of that has achieved a scenario 1 AV is Mr. Kane who I think has done it twice. Obvert might have been able to do it against Jocke, but decided against going for AV (but that game is now a many patches and betas ago). As I think now about that game, I bet Obvert could have gotten AV if he had tried (I recall a Perth invasion might have done it, throw in strategic bombing of Oz -- which hadn't been done before to the best of my recall and Japan would likely have gotten 4-1 sometime in early 43).

So for a player to start a multi year game with the Japanese goal of AV...and then not achieving that goal...well, then it is really hard for Japan to keep an interest in playing the game since you have spent all Japan's riches early. There have been a lot of JFB's that quit early because of it.

A final word, so much of Japanese defensive strength comes late to the game thru upgrades and reinforcements...that if the Allies can accelerate the timetable Japan simply lacks the forces to defend and simply falls over at an accelerating pace.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 885

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:35:00 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Auto-victory! Congratulations!

I missed a few posts and was reading past it, like "Adak" - gee, I wonder why he sent a pic of Adak?

Thanks!

(in reply to witpqs)

Post #: 886

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:39:17 PM

MBF

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Nicely done and a great read (as all your AARs are)

Many thanks Lowpe !!

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Post #: 887

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:42:10 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I think the reason why most Japanese players poo-poo AV is that it is viewed as an either or -- do I play for AV or for late game? In a scenario 1 game, Japan simply is starved economically and with ground troops. The only other player I can think of that has achieved a scenario 1 AV is Mr. Kane who I think has done it twice. Obvert might have been able to do it against Jocke, but decided against going for AV (but that game is now a many patches and betas ago). As I think now about that game, I bet Obvert could have gotten AV if he had tried (I recall a Perth invasion might have done it, throw in strategic bombing of Oz -- which hadn't been done before to the best of my recall and Japan would likely have gotten 4-1 sometime in early 43).

In that game I had to negotiate a truce in China so Jocke would keep playing, so AV was kind of a non-factor considering I wasn't able to fully pursue the gains I'd made in its the beginning. My intention may have changed (as yours in this one) if I'd seen it get closer, and then looked at the menu of available VPs at that stage: OZ resources, Indian LCUs and bases, anything on an isolated island after the major clash that destroyed the Allied CV fleet.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:43:14 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
For myself I don't trust that I'd be able to make those risks pay off while still playing for the late game.

It was very, very hard to do, and if the Allies would have pulled back from the Aleutians earlier, probably not possible.

Wargamer sent me a message at the end, stating he thought he could prevent AV when I was still 2000 points short in early Jan. My ability to get those points so quickly before he could rotate and launch another counter offensive or vp thrust. So we were definitely in a race there at the end!

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 889

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:45:45 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
In that game I had to negotiate a truce in China so Jocke would keep playing

I forgot that!

Yep, you would have definitely had it then.

Hard to see getting AV without having Chungking.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 890

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 1:46:13 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MBF

Nicely done and a great read (as all your AARs are)

Many thanks Lowpe !!

No thanks needed, thank you!

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Post #: 891

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 4:40:51 PM

mind_messing

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Did you feel that going heavy into Nick squadrons worked out well for you?

What regarding the air war would you do differently?

I like the notion of skipping Helen, seems too meh for me!

< Message edited by mind_messing -- 5/13/2019 4:41:08 PM >

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Post #: 892

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 5:06:35 PM

DanSez

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Interesting (check)
Informative (check)
Thought provoking (check)

all the marks of a great story teller
Love reading your AARs.
Good luck in the next War.

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 893

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 5:15:57 PM

zuluhour

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Followed along at work, so few posts but congratulations and hope you continue. (in uttah wah)

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Post #: 894

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 7:18:02 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DanSez

Interesting (check)
Informative (check)
Thought provoking (check)

all the marks of a great story teller
Love reading your AARs.
Good luck in the next War.

Thanks Dan, appreciate it!

(in reply to DanSez)

Post #: 895

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 7:21:28 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Did you feel that going heavy into Nick squadrons worked out well for you?

What regarding the air war would you do differently?

I like the notion of skipping Helen, seems too meh for me!

Yeah, Nicks are exceptionally useful. No regrets there as I didn't need the PP for troop buybacks or buyouts.

Not much in the Air War....I managed to destroy more Allies than Japan lost, which is tough to do. I wanted to pull off some deep firebombing runs in India for kicks (using Nells & Betty) but never did. Probably should have fully destroyed Chungking industry asap.

No real difference other than engine between Sally and Helen I think...r&d is much better off on fighters or Judy.

(in reply to mind_messing)

Post #: 896

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 7:22:44 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Followed along at work, so few posts but congratulations and hope you continue. (in uttah wah)

Thanks, but this game is over as I don't want to see my success turn into another ugly Japanese loss!

Seriously, two full games is simply too much for me currently.

(in reply to zuluhour)

Post #: 897

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/13/2019 7:36:32 PM

Lowpe

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Other considerations:

It didn't come into play during this game, but I spent a bit of early PP and lots of time organizing the Honshu/Hokkaido/Sakhalin defenses against both a CV raid targeting industry and an amphibious smash and burn raid. Nothing was undefended (good AA and radar present plus ground troops and a reserve ready in SR mode).

Wenchow and Pakhoi were both patrolled by Rboats and old destroyers with some naval search to prevent any kind of surface resupply.

I used LRCAP a lot in attempts to catch Allied transport & patrol planes, with the only notable success at Adak.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 898

RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/16/2019 10:36:03 AM

Encircled

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Congrats.

Very impressive as always

_____________________________

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RE: Lowpe (Japan) vs Wargamr (Allies) - 5/16/2019 11:29:13 AM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Very impressive as always

Thanks.

Always fighting,not always impressive!

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