RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/1/2019 3:59:35 PM

Canoerebel

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5/24/43 to 5/31/43

China: Artillery massed at Changsha (10 units) and two nearby hexes (5 and 4 units, respectively). Each turn, bombardments result in modest damage to the Chinese units, but fatigue/disruption/disablements are basically nil. Reinforcements have arrived to add beef to the second, interior MLR. The question is whether to move some of those units forward or to add to the 2nd MLR. Leaning towards the latter.

Bay of Bengal: Ent arrived at Colombo safely, joining Hornet, Wasp and the RN CVs. Sara is 20 days from fixed at Capetown. Essex is about 17 days from Capetown. Transports and fully-prepped troops are ready to load if KB should show up at some distant point, like Cocos or the Marshalls.

Cocos Island: No sign of enemy approachment (is that a word?) though SigInt re-confirmed that 6th Guards Div. is prepping. Supply 38k. Forts about 5.5. At this point it would be interesting to see him come.

Oz: Port Headland modestly held by the enemy. Allies ready to move if KB shows up far away.

SWPac: Enemy reinforced Port Moresby. Allied fort base building progressing well in NE Oz. Allied troops fully prepped for Port Moresby, Milne, but this is about the quaternary option (4th on the priority list).

SoPac: Luvanville seems safe. Ndeni is still an Allied dot hex. Eventually Allies will occupy and build the base (too close to Lunga at present).

CenPac: Since last report, Allied invaded and took Wotje against the organic CD force and took vacant Nauru and Taongi. APD about to land troops on Kusai, which I think is vacant. Ponape does not look strongly held. Wake looks like it has a good garrison but it's kinda out on a limb since the Allies have Eniwetok.

Enemy Carriers: Dave last showed a KB in the Marshalls a few weeks back, when the Allies started nosing around at Mili and Roi. Those carriers then pulled back and haven't reappeared, despite plentiful Allied ops like Wotje. I had slow BBs and CVEs in the mix. Dave didn't get Nav Search on them, which to me indicates he has little interest in this area. My working theory is that he could be concentrating his carriers in the DEI, preparatory to a move on Cocos or to counter Allied moves in the Bay of Bengal or against Java/Sumatra. Allied recon is probing to reinforce my interest in those regions. I am truly interested in them but the timeline is flexible and there are tertiary and quaternary options if this is where he focuses.

Allied Carriers: Yorktown left Pearl steaming south, as did the Marshalls CVE TF. They are bound for western Oz, to cooperate with the rest of the big carriers in the coming offensives against the Bay or Java/Sumatra. That's where I think the main thrust will take place. Three CVEs will remain in the Pacific, two currently at Pearl and one at Portland.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 3:29:07 PM

Canoerebel

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6/1/43 to 6/15/43

Sian Front: To my surprise, Dave attack Sian via river crossing shock attack. This was a crucial battle. The Chinese held up fairly well and I think they can hold long term, unless Dave has another major army that can slide around the back side. I've weakened the back MLR by pulling out units to reinforce Sian and other fronts.

Changsha Front: This front worries me, although there have been no pitched battles or retreats yet. Massed enemy arty is having an effect. Long-term, Dave might be able to break through here and consolidate armies, thus creating a schwerpunkt that might threaten to overwhelm at any point. The solution is to open the Burma Road, but that won't happen short term.

Defending China: I feel fortunate to have established and held the MLR so deeply into the game. I get the feeling that both Dave and I are fairly inexperienced in this regard. I get the feeling that certain IJ players would've annihilated me in China. Defending China is a daunting prospect that will require much thought and effort in future games.

Bay of Bengal: Awaiting arrival of all the carriers before triggering the next op. Essex and Saratoga are inbound to join Hornet, Wasp, Enterprise and the RN CVs. Yorktown might make it in time for the party too. There is a chance this will be a climactic air-sea battle, if Dave has analyzed the situation well and is reading my thoughts and plans. But the time has come to act.

Indian Ocean: Dave worked hard to reinforce Christmas Island. Allied raiders sank a few ACM and DDs in the process, so he reinforced. I think and hope he has his carriers here. I'm using recon to draw his attention. I think I have developed things in such a way that he might be more inclined to expect the next big thing here rather than in the Bay of Bengal. But I can't count on that.

Oz: Allies will conduct a small but helpful (if successful) op just before creating the appearance of a major op in the IO and just before the real thing in the Bay of Bengal.

SWPac: Very quiet. Neither side probing or pushing. I'm building up northeastern Oz bases. Luganville, Efate, New Caledonia should all be safe now.

SoPac: Pending ops to take lightly garrisoned Ocean and Jaluit. Dave pulled back here after the big battles several months back, all but ceding the area to the Allies. I'm ready to move on Wake but will likely wait for some clarity in terms of enemy carrier locations. It's likely that the upcoming action in the IO and Bay of Bengal will draw a lot/most of Dave's carriers.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 3:52:19 PM

HansBolter

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Why would anyone shock attack a level 6 fort with barely an advantage in raw AV?

Three full divisions worth of disabled combat squads means the base will hold for some time to come.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 3:58:30 PM

Canoerebel

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He'd never been to Sian before, so he didn't know exactly what I had there in the way of forts. He could surmise, of course, since we're 1.5 years into the war. More than anything, he was probably anxious to do something and seized on this as a possibility. As it turned out, he came uncomfortably close to odds that might've caused me real problems and which might've lowered forts.

He's had some success in China of late, taking Kukong, messing up a corps in the woods east of Sian, and battering my guys at and near Changsha. I get the feeling that his confidence is growing as he senses some brittleness in the Chinese defenses.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 4:08:00 PM

Simonsez

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When are we droppuing A-Bombs on Japan?

(Oh wait, that's the other AAR.....)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 4:11:55 PM

Canoerebel

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Puff the Magic dragon, lives by the sea
and wallows in the autumn mist
in a land called Honalee�.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 5:22:31 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

He'd never been to Sian before, so he didn't know exactly what I had there in the way of forts. He could surmise, of course, since we're 1.5 years into the war. More than anything, he was probably anxious to do something and seized on this as a possibility. As it turned out, he came uncomfortably close to odds that might've caused me real problems and which might've lowered forts.

He's had some success in China of late, taking Kukong, messing up a corps in the woods east of Sian, and battering my guys at and near Changsha. I get the feeling that his confidence is growing as he senses some brittleness in the Chinese defenses.

My basic rule of thumb after entering a base that might have high forts and may be heavily defended is to bombard first as a recon to determine if I have enough force to move forward with a deliberate attack, never a shock attack.

Shock attacks should be reserved for defenses you already know you will overwhelm or have already beaten down.
It takes lots of game turns under you belt to learn these rules of thumb.

The odds he got would have reduced the forts if he had combat engineers present.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 5:43:26 PM

Canoerebel

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You're forgetting that attacking Sian is cross-river when coming from the N or E, as is usually necessary, thus resulting in a shock attack.

Also, Sian is open terrain, so six forts there doesn't mean nearly as much as six forts in 2x or 3x terrain.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/6/2019 8:56:53 PM

BBfanboy

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Even when you deduct the IJA casualties, he is left with more troops than you and better firepower. He now has a secure crossing he can use to bring in more stuff and probably has better supply than you do. I hope the reinforcements you are moving in arrive before he tries another attack. Do the Chinese units have any 105mm howitzers or are they still working with the 75mm field guns?

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/7/2019 12:22:41 AM

Bif1961

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They now can cross the river easily on the dead bodies of the first wave.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/9/2019 9:55:36 PM

Canoerebel

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6/20/43

Indian Ocean: Somehow, the Allies get info on an enemy carrier TF at Kendari. On the eve of embarkation for several invasion TFs, this info is critical, prompting me to move up the dates of embarkation. Over the next several days, the TF remains there and I continue to get reports, varying between CVs, CVLs and CVEs, each reporting about 75 aircraft or less.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/9/2019 10:01:09 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/9/2019 10:03:55 PM

Canoerebel

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6/26/43

Indian Ocean: While I work to get things underway from Perth, bound for Port Headland, the enemy carrier TF remains under surveillance at Kendari. It finally departs around the 24th, bound south. The triggering event is that an Allied DD ran over an enemy sub near Carnavon. Dave must've been expected something, because that led him to move his carriers south. The following day, an enemy sub puts a TT into CVE Chengango near the same location. Now Dave has real info. His carriers continue south to defend the projected invasion of Port Headland. But the Allied invasion, configured mainly as a diversion (but able to proceed if surprise is achieved) began backing away on the 25th. Info still shows weak enemy carriers - my guys can take such a TF on, but I'm not confident the info is accurate.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/9/2019 10:05:45 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/9/2019 10:09:29 PM

Canoerebel

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6/27/43

Indian Ocean: The enemy carriers keep coming...and there are a lot more aircraft than previously reported. Dave doesn't good detection on any of my TFs today. My high-value ships should get away but a lot of transports carrying 18th UK Div. are in the crosshairs. Dave has a history of keeping coming.

CVE Chenango is retiring west, way out in Indian country. But I think she has a decent chance of slipping away on a course Dave probably isn't expecting.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/9/2019 10:16:25 PM

Canoerebel

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6/27/43

Indian Ocean, Part II: Around the 26th, Dave started getting significant nav search reports from the Bay of Bengal. Those lead to this - reports of an enemy combat TF northbound from the DEI to the Bay.

I'd like to think that the effort to configure appearances of major ops in the IO, beginning with the invasion of Cocos, continuing with recent clashes at Christmas Island, and the complicated land/sea moves on Port Headland, gave Dave reason to allocate serious firepower to this region.

But I don't know where his big carrier force is.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/9/2019 10:39:45 PM

Canoerebel

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6/27/43

Bay of Bengal: For months, the Allies have been planning and prepping for the invasion of Port Blair.

The assumption had to be that Dave would guess right and have KB present or nearby. I'm willing to go, as Port Blair is the key to China, and the Allied carrier force is pretty strong and Dave's garrison at Port Blair is pretty weak.

The hope was that Allied activities near Oz and elsewhere might give Dave reason to look elsewhere and not have all his carriers available in the IO.

The Op was tentatively scheduled to get underway by the end of June, when Sara and Essex arrived at Colombo from Capetown. But the 6/20 report of enemy carriers at Kendari triggered moves to move ASAP, even before Sar and Essex were on map (but allowing for them to catch up, given their speed).

The Allied activities in Oz indeed seemed to draw Dave's attention, so that carrier with at least 200 aircraft are way over there. It seems reasonable that a carrier force of some size is in the Pacific.

If that's so, the Allies should be able to take on what Dave can commit in the Bay of Bengal.

The Allies are going no matter what now.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/9/2019 10:47:18 PM

Canoerebel

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6/16/43 to 6/27/43

China: Dave hasn't cracked the MLR. The Allies reinforced at Sian and Changsha. I don't think he has the forces present to pose a serious threat to Sian, but his arty at Changsha is monstrous. The Chinese may break eventually. So the Allies intend to fight hard in the Bay of Bengal, to eventually re-take Burma.

Burma/Malaya: Port Blair is pretty weakly defended, as previously noted, and Mergui may still be vacant. If the Allies win a carrier clash or otherwise have freedom to move in the Bay, I intend to commit a full army in this area over the next few weeks. But the carrier situation will be the key. As part of this, a small Allied detachment took undefended Ramree. Dave reacted by committing 2nd Tank Div. I don't care about Ramree, beyond loving the idea of his tanks stuck there. So I began air withdrawal of the raiders. When Dave caught wind of DS & The Herd approaching the Andamans, he recalled 2nd Tank Div., which is now bound for Rangoon. :)

South Pacific: The Allies took lightly defended Jaluit. The Kwajalein invasion force is enroute. The Allies took vacant Ocean. Dave is pulling his little garrisons out faster than I can take the islands. The end result of this is that his position at Wake will be isolated. If and when DAve commits most of his carriers in the IO, I'll trigger that invasion, covered by five CVEs.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/10/2019 8:41:30 PM

Canoerebel

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6/28/43 and 6/29/43

Indian Ocean: The Japanese carriers give up the chase. All Allied TFs return to Perth, with the exception of the CVE TFs, Yorktown, and escorts, possibly bound for the Bay of Bengal.

Bay of Bengal: CVs Essex and Saratoga rendezvous with Death Star on the 28th. The ASW TFs are in the lead. The escorting combat TFs look really good. Orders are given to proceed to Port Blair, some 12 hexes distant.

On the 30th, a very strong enemy carrier TF/TFs pounce, ending up just two hexes from DS & The Herd. The resulting battle is massive and, for the Allies, ugly. I lose two CVs with two more seriously hurt. A Brit CA is sunk. BB North Carolina is crippled and has no chance. Allied CAP performed pretty well, but the incoming strikes were simply too large. Dave's carrier aircraft outnumbered mine 800 to 600, and his numbers were bolstered a bit by LBA. He loses 300 aircraft, while the Allies lose a handful of fighters but another couple hundred go down with ships or are ops losses.

There were no advance notice of this carrier TF, although I was sure he had carriers in the region. I felt reasonably sure there were carriers in the Pacific, not to mention the number down at Oz, but this is probably most of his. I think he used flank speed again very effectively.

Dave will keep coming. He has enough left to sink a few more carriers. But there's at least some hope that the heavy Jap losses today will dampen their effectiveness tomorrow. Some Allied combat TFs will sortie and try for the intercept, as will Allied subs.

If the Allies manage an inside straight pull tomorrow, this will have been a bitter defeat with heavy losses. If Dave lands heavy punches, it will be a very bitter defeat with grievous, crippling losses.

This is my first big carrier defeat in perhaps seven or eight years. That doesn't make me feel better, but it does offer the contrast in fortunes that make the good days feel so good. It might be awhile before there's another good day!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/10/2019 8:50:36 PM

Canoerebel

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6/30/43

Even as I was typing that last entry, a new (gulp) turn arrived from Dave. He flips 'em fast.

Bay of Bengal: A combat TF led by CL Jintsu comes forward and does battle with a series of Allied TFs. First round, both sides lose a DD. Second round, eight good Fletchers combats the Japs, neither side suffering any damage. Third round, the IJN TF finishes off crippled BB North Carolina and a crippled DD. Fourth round, the Japs do heavy damaged to three USN DMs trying to lay a minefield between the enemy and the good guys, while one IJN DD reports heavy damage. Then, in successive rounds, the Japs finished off a crippled AO and an xAK.

Then the daylight hours come....and the Jap carriers don't attack (I haven't run the turn yet, so don't know if they retired or advanced to later attack, but I expect the former). According to the combat report, the Allies take no further damage of any material consequence (though already damaged ships may have accrued damage-control failures during the turn, as I'll find out when I run the turn.

There were interactions with subs, with one enemy sub sunk and another heavily damaged.

I think there's a good chance that Wasp and Ent will make it home, while Hornet is the key question. Of the five RN CVs/CVLs, one has enough damage to prohibit flight ops but can make 22 knots and looks pretty safe.

I will now go to Dave and propose a House Rule prohibiting flank speed. :) (Just kidding. He uses is masterfully. I'll try to adapt better.)

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/10/2019 9:22:28 PM

Canoerebel

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6/29/43

Battle of Bengal Combat Report: Attached are the pertinent portions of the combat report.

I configured my carrier aircraft settings in an unusual manner. Defense of the fleet and the mission to invade Port Blair was the priority. I didn't want Allied strikes to blunder early into a massive CAP trap over Port Blair or Sabang. I figured Dave had carriers, though I hadn't seen them yet, and might well commit them. I set my fighters to heavy CAP, the Avengers to ASW, and the SBDs to partial search. There were no strike missions set. I thought it most likely that any strikes flown by Dave would blunt against the quality Allied CAP in round one, allowing the invasion force to proceed to the beach and follow-up offensive missions if Dave loitered.

In retrospect, that deployment probably saved the Allies from utter destruction. Had half of my fighters been set to strike missions, the carnage to my carriers would have been immense and the entire fleet would have been in trouble. My guys would've gotten some licks in but Dave isn't far from LBA and his own ports.

Not that this was any kind of pyrrhic victory. It was simply a defeat that might've been worse (assuming the Allies do disengage).

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/10/2019 9:30:21 PM

BillBrown

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I only have one word, oops.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/10/2019 10:07:54 PM

BBfanboy

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+1 + ...

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/10/2019 11:08:36 PM

Canoerebel

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You are men of few words.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 12:11:37 PM

Canoerebel

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7/1/43

Bay of Bengal: Dave pulled his carriers back, so Death Star & The Herd steamed forward, largely without altercations. Enemy subs picked off a cripple or two, Allied ASW picked off an enemy sub, and (most importantly) damage control failed and Hornet went under. That brings the total number of USN carriers lost to three, along with an RN CA, several DDs, two DMs, one AO, and a few merchantmen. Ouch. Against that the Japanese lost a few DDs and a few subs plus the 300 aircraft. My carriers sank with about 200 aircraft. Hopefully, most of those pilots are fine. It cost perhaps 600 PP to buy back the damaged squadrons, another important cost to this engagement.

The Herd basically escaped undamaged (to this point). There were about five or six divisions plus supporting units aboard.

Now comes the period of gloom and, more gradually, the long recovery.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 1:02:41 PM

Anachro

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A bad loss, but not catastrophic. Nonetheless, such events are always painful and you'll have to recover for a bit. Nonetheless, you should still be able to conduct operations on the periphery and advance where he is not or you have LBA. Hopefully, your opponent has lost a lot of good KB pilots.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 2:41:23 PM

Bif1961

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To wax Civil War in 1864, Grant could lose a battle and replace the loses, Cold Harbor comes to mind, but Lee could not afford to lose a single one. You find yourself in the same situation, you as grant of course.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 2:46:27 PM

modrow

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You are men of few words.

I'd say that's a pleonasm

Just my 2 cts

Hartwig

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 3:10:45 PM

WingCmdr

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Civil War? A statement we read several times in every Civil War book for 50 years now.

Cold Harbor was the ONLY battle Grant regretted.

< Message edited by WingCmdr -- 6/11/2019 3:12:34 PM >

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 3:19:38 PM

jwolf

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Double plus ouch on that carrier battle!

It seems that your description of Dave -- strategically conservative, tactically aggressive -- was right on the money. He is determined to use his key advantages of interior lines and speed, and kudos to him for doing this so well. I would imagine all those high speed runs have inflicted some damage on his carriers, but obviously it was well worth the cost.

I thought that Dave would be set back a lot by taking so long to secure Singapore (and maybe some other key early war targets). But now you in turn will be held back for quite a while (or so I would think?) so for the time being this looks like a good strategic trade for the Japanese. It will be interesting to see how you regroup from this and plan further operations going forward.

Is it possible to see a map of the general area of the carrier battle and how far and how fast Dave moved his fleet?

Finally, kudos to you for taking it like a man and telling the story straight, in spite of the pain. Good luck moving forward.

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 5:22:08 PM

BBfanboy

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CR's usual style is to keep very close tabs on KB position and not move unless he knows where it is. But his opponent has kept it hidden by not going for the greatest possible expansion of his empire, and CR had to calculate where KB was likely to be based on fragments of info.

Another player might have stayed back at safe bases for several more months but CR was pressing in several areas, so it didn't take long for a miscalculation to bite. Kudos to CR for the attempt - it keeps the game interesting when things are not static!

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RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) - 6/11/2019 5:41:58 PM

Canoerebel

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That's a good synopsis, BBfanboy.

1.5 years into the game, I thought I had a good bead on Dave's style. I felt sure he had a meaningful number of carriers in the Pacific. I felt like it was worth the chance. I thought the forces allocated were sufficient to handle the risk. I was wrong. :)

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