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Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/21/2019 7:16:26 AM   
LargeSlowTarget


Posts: 4443
Joined: 9/23/2000
From: Hessen, Germany - now living in France
Status: offline 		I'm curious about how long PBEM games tend to last and the reasons they ended, so I have made a little poll. Two actually, one for Allied-side players who have "won" and one for Japanese-side players who have "won". Not asking for lost games in order to avoid counting the same game twice in case the opponent answers the poll as well.

I would be happy if PBEMers who have played a "historical" - i.e. stock scenario 1 or 6 or a DBB scenario 28 or 29 - full campaign game take the time to answer. I would like to exclude other scenarios and mods which often "beef-up" the Orbat with more toys for the moment.

For those who have multiple games under their belts - the polls allow multiple choices and can be run mutiple times if you need to submit the same results more than once, e.g. if you have had three auto-victories in 1944, you can submit the poll three times.

It is the first time I create a poll so I hope the setup makes sense.

So here you go:

Allied-side players

Japanese-side players


Here is an example of how the poll looks like:






EDIT Jan 11,2021: Looks like adding new votes after the poll lay dormant for more than a year has broken it, the number of votes has actually diminished since 2019. So unfortunately it is pointless to continue this exercise

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by LargeSlowTarget -- 1/11/2021 7:53:51 AM >

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Post #: 1
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/22/2019 7:33:57 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		I know it's informal, but given the victory conditions for the game engine I fully expect to see at least 3x as many Allied victories than Japanese victories - even if you were to only count those games that ended on the game's terms, not being abandoned.

(in reply to LargeSlowTarget)
Post #: 2
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 10:03:26 AM   
Barb


Posts: 2503
Joined: 2/27/2007
From: Bratislava, Slovakia
Status: offline 		Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D

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Post #: 3
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 4:39:05 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb

Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D


Well, he did list them...

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Post #: 4
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 5:12:48 PM   
BillBrown


Posts: 2335
Joined: 6/15/2002
Status: offline 		I listed one, March 1943, opponent quit sending turns and did not answer you email. Nothing since 3 July.

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Post #: 5
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 7:31:52 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

opponent quit sending turns and did not answer you email.


Just to chime in here way ahead of time, if any such thing happens to my opponent, rest assured that something has gone seriously wrong IRL. Short of my demise (and maybe not even that), I'll get back to you when I can.

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In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to BillBrown)
Post #: 6
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 10:30:09 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		I listed two reasons:

1x Autovictory 1943

3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died)

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Post #: 7
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 10:45:23 PM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline 		On five occasions when I when I was playing Allied I completely sank the KB by May or June of '42 and my opponent quit. On one occasion my opponent wanted to try again and the same result occurred. I guess that counts as "rage quitting".

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Post #: 8
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 10:46:15 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

On five occasions when I when I was playing Allied I completely sank the KB by May or June of '42 and my opponent quit. On one occasion my opponent wanted to try again and the same result occurred. I guess that counts as "rage quitting".


So, for purposes of tabulation of results, did that last match count as two rage quits or one?

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Post #: 9
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 11:01:38 PM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline 		Should be two. We started over from scratch and he made the exact same mistake, sending the KB well beyond his land based search arcs SW of New Caledonia. I saw him coming, he didn't see me until it was too late. I'm pretty sure I did AARs on all those. None of those guys post anymore, they just disappeared. The one who repeated was from Arizona. One was a Pole. One was a Czech. One was an Australian. The Czech guy just disappeared so I don't think he counts. But it seems like there was one more and I can't remember where he was from.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 10
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/23/2019 11:05:34 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


Posts: 4320
Joined: 2/29/2012
From: Toronto and Lima
Status: offline 		2 PBEM games, one Allied, on Japanese

Allied ended in early 1943
Japanese mid to end of 1942

both ended in victory after opponents disappeared

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Post #: 11
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 12:25:48 AM   
spence

 

Posts: 5400
Joined: 4/20/2003
From: Vancouver, Washington
Status: offline 		I only play Allies in PBEM AE/WitP. I have never played a PBEM game to "The Bitter End" (in Witp:AE - I have played exactly one PBEM game of UV0 as the Japanese to "The Bitter End" and lost that one. I have started many games of AE(latest Betas with Vanillas mostly)/WitP(Vanilla)/WitP(CHS). If one considers a quit game as a victory for their opponent then I have won a bunch but unknown number of games as the Allies and have lost 2 as Allies for the same reason. I suspect that; at least in the "olden days", the number of quitters was high. Now, maybe not so much, but still substantial.


(in reply to LargeSlowTarget)
Post #: 12
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 12:37:25 AM   
geofflambert


Posts: 14863
Joined: 12/23/2010
From: St. Louis
Status: offline 		Quitting is so unnecessary. You can always find somebody to take over your game if you just can't play anymore.

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Post #: 13
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 8:17:35 AM   
Barb


Posts: 2503
Joined: 2/27/2007
From: Bratislava, Slovakia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb
Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D


Well, he did list them...


Yup, my bad :)

Did vote there already - IIRC (all scen 1/DBB)
3x Jap opponent quit
1x Allied opponent quit
- currently one game each side in 1944 (one on hold for personal reasons).

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Post #: 14
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 8:28:17 AM   
GetAssista

 

Posts: 2732
Joined: 9/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Barb
Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D

"..What I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long WITP career. If you concede your defeat now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will end this campaign officially."

(in reply to Barb)
Post #: 15
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 11:13:35 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		The list of possible ending should include quit for personal reasons. GreyJoy and I had a game in 43, going well, and he had to discontinue. It had nothing to do with the game or anything happening within it. I bet it's one of the most common categories for games ending, as evidenced by some of the posts above.

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Post #: 16
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 1:24:44 PM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The list of possible ending should include quit for personal reasons.


Or at least, reasons not directly connected to the game. My one and only PBEM experience was a newbie vs. newbie game against Malagant, he as Japan and I as Allies. The game got only about 5 months in, to mid-May of 1942, when he vanished from communication. But the Japanese were dominating my forces easily pretty much everywhere, and as far as I could tell they were in a very good position. I could only guess that he had some sort of personal circumstances that came up; perhaps even a tragedy, but I never knew. In any case it would be grossly dishonest for me to count this as a victory even though my opponent did quit.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 17
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 4:44:04 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The list of possible ending should include quit for personal reasons.


Or at least, reasons not directly connected to the game. My one and only PBEM experience was a newbie vs. newbie game against Malagant, he as Japan and I as Allies. The game got only about 5 months in, to mid-May of 1942, when he vanished from communication. But the Japanese were dominating my forces easily pretty much everywhere, and as far as I could tell they were in a very good position. I could only guess that he had some sort of personal circumstances that came up; perhaps even a tragedy, but I never knew. In any case it would be grossly dishonest for me to count this as a victory even though my opponent did quit.


I respectfully disagree. An opponent that drops a game without communicating the reasons why or offering an 'out' for another player to step into his stead is breaking the pact. Quitting like that is tantamount to admitting defeat. It's certainly understandable if they have a terminal health problem, but-in your case-it's far more likely that the person just became bored with the game and 'ghosted' you. I consider that sort of action to be extremely disrespectful and it's worthy of putting them in the box of 'losers'.

How hard would it have been for your opponent to send you an email to clarify this? After you spent hundreds of hours on the game, he just disappears? Seriously, how long does it take to send an email saying, "I'm not having fun with this game. I'm sorry, but I can't do this for another 4 years. I resign. You win. Thanks for the game." Again, if he's sick and / or dead, I get it. But the vast majority of games ending aren't because someone dies. Unless that happens (it's happened three times to me), they have no right to say anything other than 'they lost'.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 7/24/2019 4:48:32 PM >

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RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 5:16:02 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I listed two reasons:

1x Autovictory 1943

3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died)


Add to list: never play Chickenboy.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 19
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 5:17:14 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I listed two reasons:

1x Autovictory 1943

3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died)


Add to list: never play Chickenboy.


It'll be the last game you play of WiTP:AE.

I semi-jokingly, semi-seriously asked after the health of my current opponent (AcePylut) before we started our game together. He *says* he is feeling fine so far, but history shows that he's got 6 months-1.5 years at the most. Maybe I should start suggesting 2-day turns in the future?

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 7/24/2019 5:20:11 PM >

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Post #: 20
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 8:51:33 PM   
rustysi


Posts: 7472
Joined: 2/21/2012
From: LI, NY
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I listed two reasons:

1x Autovictory 1943

3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died)


Add to list: never play Chickenboy.


Ya think.


_____________________________

It is seldom that liberty of any kind is lost all at once. Hume

In every party there is one member who by his all-too-devout pronouncement of the party principles provokes the others to apostasy. Nietzsche

Cave ab homine unius libri. Ltn Prvb

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 21
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 9:05:30 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I listed two reasons:

1x Autovictory 1943

3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died)


Add to list: never play Chickenboy.


Ya think.



AW1 Steve and I played Chickenboy and Mynok in a 2x2 game and we both lived to tell the tale.

Speaking of which, I didn't see that game listed in CB's post above for his poll answers.

(Granted, his partner had to withdraw from the game due to life circumstances and I recall a LOT of Japanese troops cut off and trapped inland in Northern Oz... )

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"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

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Post #: 22
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 9:34:34 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica


quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I listed two reasons:

1x Autovictory 1943

3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died)


Add to list: never play Chickenboy.


Ya think.



AW1 Steve and I played Chickenboy and Mynok in a 2x2 game and we both lived to tell the tale.

Speaking of which, I didn't see that game listed in CB's post above for his poll answers.

(Granted, his partner had to withdraw from the game due to life circumstances and I recall a LOT of Japanese troops cut off and trapped inland in Northern Oz... )


If you read the poll question carefully, you'll see why I didn't include that in the poll answer, knucklehead. "I have WON a WITP-AE full campaign game with stock or DBB scenarios playing the Japanese side because"

That 2x2 did NOT end in a Japanese victory. Yeah, after my IJN partner bailed on the game, I was left holding the IJA bag. And by 'bag', I mean the bag full of flaming dog****. That was an unenviable strategic position, wasn't it?

By the way, what became of Lexington, Enterprise, Hornet and Yorktown in that game?

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Post #: 23
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/24/2019 9:35:34 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline 		Which reminds me, is Mynok still alive?

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Post #: 24
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/25/2019 1:33:13 AM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica


quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I listed two reasons:

1x Autovictory 1943

3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died)


Add to list: never play Chickenboy.


Ya think.



AW1 Steve and I played Chickenboy and Mynok in a 2x2 game and we both lived to tell the tale.

Speaking of which, I didn't see that game listed in CB's post above for his poll answers.

(Granted, his partner had to withdraw from the game due to life circumstances and I recall a LOT of Japanese troops cut off and trapped inland in Northern Oz... )


If you read the poll question carefully, you'll see why I didn't include that in the poll answer, knucklehead. "I have WON a WITP-AE full campaign game with stock or DBB scenarios playing the Japanese side because"

That 2x2 did NOT end in a Japanese victory. Yeah, after my IJN partner bailed on the game, I was left holding the IJA bag. And by 'bag', I mean the bag full of flaming dog****. That was an unenviable strategic position, wasn't it?

By the way, what became of Lexington, Enterprise, Hornet and Yorktown in that game?


Oh, that's right! This one should go on MY and Steve's lists!

I don't know what happened to those CV's in that game. Steve was running the USN.

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 25
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/25/2019 1:44:21 AM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Which reminds me, is Mynok still alive?


I haven't talked to him in a long time. Actually since you and Steve visited here while Torsten was here. I hope he is well.

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 26
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/25/2019 8:42:45 PM   
pontiouspilot


Posts: 1127
Joined: 7/27/2012
Status: offline 		There...I just voted for all the games I can remember....I still have 3 ongoing

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Post #: 27
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 7/25/2019 11:59:40 PM   
JoV

 

Posts: 99
Joined: 2/27/2016
Status: offline 		Have had two games, both as Japan. One where my opponent disappeared July 42, the other where I conceded in early January 42 as I felt it wasn't a good matchup for either of us.

Interesting to see what results this might throw up. Once you get into late 42 I imagine a decent proportion of games subsequently go fairly deep.

(in reply to LargeSlowTarget)
Post #: 28
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 1/10/2021 6:51:41 PM   
LargeSlowTarget


Posts: 4443
Joined: 9/23/2000
From: Hessen, Germany - now living in France
Status: offline 		Bump for games which have ended since the last post in 2019.

Stats so far show that about half the games end due to rage-quitting / abandoning / personal reasons. Discounting the 1941/1942 surrenders which I suspect are due to player mismatch, beginner mistakes etc., there are 11 Japanese "wins" including 4 auto-victories and 14 Allied "wins" including 4 auto-victories. Just taking the games which have reached 1945 and beyond, there are 2 "wins" for Japan and 6 "wins" for the Allies.



< Message edited by LargeSlowTarget -- 1/11/2021 7:37:49 AM >

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Post #: 29
RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings - 1/10/2021 7:29:16 PM   
Ambassador

 

Posts: 1674
Joined: 1/11/2008
From: Brussels, Belgium
Status: offline 		I have added one result (1945 auto victory for the Allies), game finished in 2016 (or 17 ? Hard to tell) but I hadn’t seen your poll (I barely haunted it the last few years). Very interesting.

quote:

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget

Stats so far show that about half the games end due to rage-quitting / abandoning.


Sudden carrier loss syndrome ?

(in reply to LargeSlowTarget)
Post #: 30
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