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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief

 
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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/5/2019 4:52:21 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

John will be back. He just needs to cool off. This was a pretty big defeat, it may take a while but he will be back.


I'm sure he will. "Floozy Dan" always keeps him coming back for more.

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/5/2019 5:04:48 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Well, if I was a mean spirited soul I would go into the opponents wanted sub and announce the Anachro vs. Floozy Dan death match

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/5/2019 5:57:29 PM   
Cheesesteak


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Well, if I was a mean spirited soul I would go into the opponents wanted sub and announce the Anachro vs. Floozy Dan death match



Floozy Dan, my favorite Steely Dan cover band.


Anachro can't commit to another game now; I'm going to requisition him. Someone has to save the Allies in my game.

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/5/2019 6:23:31 PM   
Anachro


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

Floozy Dan, my favorite Steely Dan cover band.

Anachro can't commit to another game now; I'm going to requisition him. Someone has to save the Allies in my game.


I have a second game going on as Japan (which I made an AAR for). I might post more of that, but I have to admit that I feel woefully inadequate as a Japanese player. It requires an attention to detail I'm not sure I have. You can get away with a lot as an Allied player: the logistics mostly takes care of itself, so you can focus more on ops planning and big picture stuff.

I'll prob send the turn to John in a few hours. BBs and BCs will bombard Kwajalein before moving east towards Pearl Harbor. Carriers will move east immediately.

Regarding the game now and the strategic situation for carriers, by mid-1944 the IJN should be able to field 10 fleet carriers and 10 light carriers. It's losses so far are as follows:



In contrast, the Allied fleet should be able to field 19 fleet carriers and 15 light carriers by mid '44. THis means that John certainly has the carrier capabilities going forward to inflict damage if I make a mistake or if he achieves surprise in an advantageous position. Losses are as follows:



< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/5/2019 6:27:27 PM >

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/5/2019 8:10:22 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Well, if I was a mean spirited soul I would go into the opponents wanted sub and announce the Anachro vs. Floozy Dan death match


Man. Word is really getting around fast!






Attachment (1)

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/5/2019 10:01:35 PM   
Anachro


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Some of those CA's don't look so good but unless you got deck penetrations they may live with lots of yard time. Destroyed turrets take forever. Not sure who carries what float planes but keep an eye on the aircraft loss screen. John loves his CA's as much as he loves his caboose.


The frustrating thing about having no replay thanks to the sync bug, I can't actually watch the bombs hit and see what happens (it was my hope to be able to see this for my Midway moment so I can geek out and roleplay it a bit). Do they cause good damage? Do they hit the armor? Do they destroy gun mounts? Etc.

The turn is away and a BC/DD and BB/DD SCTF will both bombard Kwajalein. Let's see what happens. I have decided to send my carriers due east with heavy CAP coverage. Nav search is heavy at Wake Island, etc. to spot any TFs John might be sending from Truk. It'll be awhile before I get the turn back. John sent a reply to my turn email immediately saying he was still in Denver where he had training all day.

quote:

Haven't left a very rainy/snowy Denver yet...


< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/5/2019 10:02:52 PM >

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/6/2019 12:31:40 AM   
CaptBeefheart


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As I sort of hinted at a couple of comments back, for some reason he didn't seem willing to commit his KB1, that it was not up to taking on the DS. You'd think he would have had KB1 and 2 meet around Umboi or something. It would be interesting to know why he didn't.

Cheers,
CB

< Message edited by CaptBeefheart -- 12/6/2019 12:36:17 AM >


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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/6/2019 1:25:10 AM   
BBfanboy


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You had your CVEs heading east to join up with DS and then the Battle of the Marshalls finished KB2. Where are your CVEs going now - back toward Milne Bay? Onward to the Marshalls? NW to demolish KB1?

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/6/2019 1:38:25 AM   
Anachro


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Given where KB1 was last seen, I judged it safer to move away from Truk towards Pearl; moreover, Death Star is a little low on fuel and PH is closer. As for my transports and CVEs, in order to take them out of danger while Death Star is away, I have moved everything back towards the Australian mainland. In the mean time, a number of DDs, BBs, and CAs that were overdue for upgrade will get their refits in (I think the days in port will range between 7-30 days for the ships upgrading). If I get a pin on KB1's location and judge things to be safe, I'll move on Lae under cover of LBA and CVEs. I plan to have Death Star back in theater ASAP though to help with the defense of Manus and isolation of surrounding Japanese garrisons.

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RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief - 12/6/2019 9:03:47 AM   
adarbrauner

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

I might post more of that, but I have to admit that I feel woefully inadequate as a Japanese player. It requires an attention to detail I'm not sure I have. You can get away with a lot as an Allied player: the logistics mostly takes care of itself,




Are you sure. even during first years, with a menacing japan fleet that can interdict;

When playing solo against myself, I have a hell of time coordinating escorts for allied logistic and transport shipping

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Postmortem - 12/6/2019 8:30:51 PM   
Anachro


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Carrier Battle Postmortem

A bit chaotic, but here's a graphic I made while I await John to send back the next turn. It shows the various pathways of the three carrier task forces on hand during whats already being called in the media The Battle of...well maybe I'll let the peanut gallery think of a name, since the battle encompassed combat east of Bougainville and in the Marshalls.



Needless to say, John's initial warpspeed move on Aug 22nd from Horn Island was questionable, highly risky, and put him in a bad situation. The real critical day was August 23rd when he could have moved north past Umboi Island, or towards Rabaul. Given KB1's positioning on Aug. 22, both of these options could have had him feasibly link up with KB1 with its immense fighter coverage while also giving him the benefit of multiple nearby large airbases from which he could have provided heavy LBA CAP cover. Instead, he chose to go east, which perhaps was the worst pathway to choose if he wanted to minimize risk from an aggressive movement by Death Star, moving him both away from KB1 and away from his LBA fighter coverage.

The real question is why. Some have said John didn't feel confident tangling with Death Star using KB1, but this doesn't jibe with the facts. KB1 had ~350 fighters in addition to ~120 bombers based on recon. Combining it with KB2 would have resulted in only a narrow margin of inferiority (~750-800 Japanese A/C vs. ~900 for Death Star). Moreover, with nearby LBA protection, the ability of Death Star to cause major harm would have been certainly curtailed and one needs to only look at Death Star's difficulties with its initial strikes on an isolated KB2 on Aug. 24th to understand a combined KB would have been far more difficult to cause harm to. Of course, any carrier action near Port Moresby and Milne Bay would have also afforded me the ability to provide LBA CAP to my carriers; and John might simply have not felt confident with the above facts regardless, especially given the lack of full knowledge and the fog of war.

So why did John move east? Perhaps the more interesting question: why did KB1 not once throughout this dangerous period attempt to move closer to KB2? I believe the answer is simply it did not have the fuel; and on top of that, John did not expect me to pursue so aggressively out east of Rabaul. Why do I think this?

1. KB1 had already been at sea for over 10 days and had conducted some air strikes against Milne Bay - she probably was low on fuel and op points.
2. KB1 did not move once towards KB2. It had a 2 day window in which to do this under the protection of LBA CAP (Aug 22. and Aug 23). It did not move south even after the carrier action on the 24th - it kept its beeline for Truk.
3. No SCTFs or KB1 moved south from Truk immediately after the carrier battle on the 24th. Perhaps given the numerous capital ships John had been employing, the fuel situation at Truk was also critical.


On top of all this, there is what John was seeing from his perspective. From Aug 22-24, John saw a heavy fleet of transports (clearly an invasion force), coming up behind my carriers, as well as 5-6 SCTFs. This would all obviously point to invasion, bombardment, and surface protection duties. It could very well be the case that on August 23rd, a moment of incredible danger for KB2 given that it had chosen the worst path to take, John assumed that the Allied commander would remain to cover his invasion force that was clearly heading for Milne before moving on some invasion target. He also probably assumed that he was both far enough away and that the Allies might think so as well. Why would I make that supposition? Because of the pathway he took. Moving directly east would have been his safest option; instead, KB2 went northeast on a meandering route towards Truk, a route which gave Death Star the possibility of getting in strike range.

All of this created the situation for a strategic victory. Admittedly, it's also all conjecture. Perhaps someone would be so kind as to ask John in his thread what his thoughts were for the critical turns of Aug. 22-24.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/6/2019 8:34:14 PM >

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RE: Postmortem - 12/6/2019 8:40:26 PM   
Anachro


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And yes, I'm bored at the moment.

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RE: Postmortem - 12/6/2019 10:50:49 PM   
Bearcat2

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Carrier Battle Postmortem

The Battle of...well maybe I'll let the peanut gallery think of a name, since the battle encompassed combat east of Bougainville and in the Marshalls.

......................................




The battle of: A Banzaii too Far


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RE: Postmortem - 12/6/2019 11:29:27 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Sorry, This will be forever know as THE BATTLE OF FLOOZY DAN

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RE: Postmortem - 12/6/2019 11:30:43 PM   
BBfanboy


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Your analysis looks quite thorough to me. I would only add that John has so many irons in the fire of his life that he must play hasty turns while nearly exhausted. That does not lead to clear thought and good judgment.

Since John did not get to shout Banzai! about anything recently, I cannot support Bearcat2's otherwise excellent suggestion.
How about the battle of OJ (Ontong Java)? We have a meandering attempt to escape in full view of the good guys (DS) and news helicopters (your AAR posts). We have a visible trail from place to place and a bloody mess at the end. Everything points to OJ...

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RE: Postmortem - 12/6/2019 11:31:12 PM   
JohnDillworth


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You may be waiting a bit for that turn. Care to try the above illustration in embroidery? You will have time

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 1696
RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 12:58:41 AM   
Anachro


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We'll see. I just got an email from John so he's alive. However, he appears to be having turn file problems.

quote:

I’ve tried to run this turn twice and it keeps crashing. STUPID! Could you re-send the file to me? Thanks!

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 1:01:25 AM   
Anachro


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I was perusing CR's AAR from his old match with John, trying to find his Midway moment to see how it happened and John's reaction in the days/weeks after. I still haven't yet pinpointed it because that AAR is long, has lots of action, and CR is quite verbose. However, I did find a very interesting post from Mr. Mandrake:


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

This bluster is exactly how John is. This playing style is exactly how John is. It is as predictable as the rising of the sun.

I played him once in WITP. He ran all over the Pacific with the KB shooting up transports and the like until a divided KB was defeated by USN carriers near Tahiti. Even after that he attacked Perth but Sigint picked up the prep and the attack was stopped with big losses. Then in January 43 the Allies landed behind a big Jap Army at Moulmein and ran wild until he gave up the game.

I don't think he is constitutionally able to prepare for a solid anticipatory defense.


Sounds familiar.

< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/7/2019 1:03:52 AM >

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 1:54:40 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sorry, This will be forever know as THE BATTLE OF FLOOZY DAN


The Battle of Floozy Dan and the separated legs of Kido Butai?

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 1:57:44 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Everything points to OJ...


Does Halsey wear a size 9 Bruno Magli shoe?

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 11:51:17 AM   
Bearcat2

 

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The Japanese carrier losses are great; but until you sink CV's Tokachi & Kushiro*, the game is in doubt.


* 63a/c with an armored flight deck on a 17,000t ship.

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 12:03:47 PM   
Anachro


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Yeah, I brought this up briefly in my review of the Japanese CVs in this mod on page 2 of this thread. These CVL to CV convertible boats seem a bit questionable. They start out as 14K ton CVLs with Shokaku-level armor and magically retain their armor (lost tower armor I guess, lol) when converting to CVs while doubling their A/C capacity. I guess the inspiration might be the British CV's getting more capacity through upgrade in the game? But these have more capacity, more belt armor, almost as much deck armor, yet are 7k less in tonnage. Pretty much fantasy ships in my opinion and probably need to be better balanced in future versions of the mod. The one trade-off where they are worse is obviously AA, but I don't think that justifies the adequacy of the design from a plausibility point of view.

Can @NYGiants speak to the design philosophy of these ships?



And an upgraded British CV Indomitable class for comparison...



< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/7/2019 12:09:23 PM >

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 12:24:53 PM   
JohnDillworth


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heavier, faster, more aircraft, deck armor of a cruiser? ...........pure fan-boy BS. Why not throw a Phalanx air defense system on them?

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 1:08:31 PM   
Anachro


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Just got two emails and John keeps telling me he is running into a LOT of tech issues with the turn (after I resent him it). The wait continues.

quote:

Got up early to run the resend prior to work but have a Fatal Error message coming up on my screen. Posted it on the Tech side of the Forum. Am sure it has to do with a new install. The guys will tell me how to fix…

I am such a tech idiot, it is not even funny!


quote:

OK. The tech people have given me a direction. Will handle after work and wine-tasting this afternoon. Figures that I can find a way to screw things up with Tech. IT is a true gift of mine. Not a GOOD gift but a gift nonetheless…


Back to the situation. I have tried to count up the number and types of carriers that Japan and the Allies should have up to November '43 with the latest carrier losses. Keep in mind, the allied strength shown overstates my current strength because I am awaiting 2 new Essex-class CVs and some CVLs that arrive between now and 11/43. As can be seen, up to 11/43 the Allies should have a reasonable preponderance of strength in terms of carriers and A/C, though not an overwhelming one. My advantage should grow into '44 as John only gets CV Taiho in mid '44 (Shokaku-Kai) and CV Katsuragi in late '44. He then gets a CV and CVL in '45 and that's it.



< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/7/2019 1:15:13 PM >

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 3:04:45 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'm still waiting for John to reply to my two PMs and one email.

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RE: Postmortem - 12/7/2019 5:20:25 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm still waiting for John to reply to my two PMs and one email.

Wallflower or Floozy? Which is it?

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Postmortem - 12/9/2019 11:22:56 AM   
paullus99


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Not surprising that his cavalier attitude came back and bit him in the ass....this is exactly what happened with his last game with Dan - running his carriers all over the place & then losing all of his light carriers in a single afternoon - with follow up strikes the next two days which decimated the rest of his carrier fleet.

Kudos for him in continuing that game....but, overall his scenarios are designed to maximize the Japanese advantages for as long as possible.

After reviewing those carrier upgrades above, they aren't even close to be realistic. Maybe you can magically hanger space and retain all kinds of deck armor, but it isn't anything you would see in the real world.

Once again, these scenarios really don't do anything but make the first two years of the war even more miserable for the Allied player.

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RE: Postmortem - 12/9/2019 1:07:35 PM   
JohnDillworth


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This mod has lots of absolutely ridiculous things. I believe John awarded himself a strategic bombing force of Hundreds of Rita bombers. In the real world Japan managed to field 2 of these 4 engine bombers by 1945. I guess the theory is if Japan just has enough toys sound strategic judgement is not required


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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: Postmortem - 12/9/2019 1:14:37 PM   
Anachro


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I have not yet received the next turn, but John did mention he'd get back to trying to fix his game (tech problems) AFTER the Chiefs beat the Pats yesterday. Well, they did beat the Pats (thanks to bad officiating once again, but that's par for the course in the NFL, plus Brady and the offense this year are truly mediocre).

In this game, John has kept the majority of his carriers concentrated most of the time. However, he has shown a propensity to still divide them in a risky manner on occasion. In four occasions (perhaps really five), John did divide his carrier forces and use them in a truly cavalier manner, but as you state Paullus (and others like Mandrake have alluded to in posts above), two of those occasions have bitten John in the ass (and in the others he was very lucky not to see his carrier fleet decimated). I will put them below with links to the original posts:

1. A Mini-KB Carrier Raid on Tahiti in mid-42: LINK HERE
John did an extremely deep raid into the South Pacific with a mini-KB composed of 4 CVLs. Through an immense effort that saw the Allied CVs come all the way south from a previous operation in the Aleutians (and thus through extreme and precarious use of fuel), we managed to get into carrier strike range of mini-KB and sink 2 Zuiho-class CVLs. Unfortunately for us, our coordination was a bit spotty and we didn't get as many hits in as we wanted. 4 CVLs should have been sunk here regardless, but the G.6 CVLs shown above were in this mini-KB and they displayed a remarkable ability to be impervious to bomb strike, wither everything bouncing off their armor:



2. Another mini-KB in Western Australia mid-42: LINK HERE
This should have resulted in the destruction of at least a few CVEs in addition to maybe a Junyo or Hiyo, but poor performance by my bombers leads to minor damage caused. Moreover, his bombers get through and put two torps into my British carriers despite far more fighters on CAP than he had on escort duty. It should be noted, my carriers aren't fully concentrated for this battle either.

quote:


Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Carnarvon at 44,132

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 74 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 29 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 59
A6M2-N Rufe x 10
F1M2 Pete x 6

Allied aircraft
Martlet II x 11
F4F-4 Wildcat x 50
SBD-2 Dauntless x 38
SBD-3 Dauntless x 47

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M2-N Rufe: 1 destroyed
F1M2 Pete: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Martlet II: 2 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
SBD-2 Dauntless: 5 destroyed, 8 damaged
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak
SBD-3 Dauntless: 11 destroyed, 10 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Hiyo
CB Fuji
CVE Taiyo, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CV Junyo
CB Aino
CVE Ibuki
CB Kita, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVL Nisshin


3. Deep Raid South towards New Zealand: LINK HERE
Another carrier raid around New Year's day once again puts John's carriers in a precarious position where they can not only suffer from the almost-full concentration of my carriers, but I'd also have the advantage of heavy nearby LBA. Luckily for John, the querks of the game system cause me much frustration here as my lead TFs (despite being carrier Air TFs) decide to "flee enemy air threat." I know I should have gone absolute and direct in my routing orders here, but I never expected a carrier TF to behave as such. John got off lucky here. I should note also that prior to this that John also put a KB2 in a heavily isolated position far east of Palmyra/Christmas Island that I probably could have intercepted (and initially planned to do so), but advice here dissuaded me. That would be an additional time John risked defeat-in-detail.



4. Arrival of KB2 from India with a Risky Southern Movement: LINK HERE
And of course the battle we all know: John had a carrier force appear at Horn Island and this was most likely the carriers of KB2 which previously had been divided from the rest of KB as a second Japanese carrier force in the Indian area of operations (previously seen off Diego Garcia). Beyond the fact that he had two carrier forces divided in very disparate theaters, he was probably trying to recombine them here to take on Death Star, which was clearly operating in force in the SoPac/Guinea area. John's mistake here was to make a very risky movement south from Horn Island towards the heart of Allied local power without combining all his carriers first. My lucky decision to move out the same turn put him into great danger. However, to John's credit he no doubt planned to operate a combined KB1 and KB2 in the weeks ahead.



Compilation of Losses, Aug 24-27
An attempted categorization of losses up this point from the latest carrier and surface battles are as follows. More clarity on cruiser losses will come in the coming turns.

quote:

Definitely Sunk

2 Hiryu-class CVs
2 Akagi-class CVs
1 Aoba-class CLAA
1 Tokoro-class CL
2 Akitsuki-class DDs
2 Kagero-class DDs
1 Shimakaze-class DD

Likely Sunk/Heavily Damaged/Moderately Damaged

1 Aso-class CVL
1 Tone-class CA
1 Mogami-class CA
1 Takao-class CA
2 Myoko-class CAs
1 Tokoro-class CL
2 Akitsuki-class DDs

Lightly Damaged

1 Myoko-class CA

Total Sig. Damaged/Sunk

4 CVs
5 CAs
1 CLAA
2 CLs
7 DDs


< Message edited by Anachro -- 12/9/2019 2:39:17 PM >

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 1709
RE: Postmortem - 12/9/2019 3:28:57 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
My opinion on the matter of the realism of John's mods mirrors that stated above. However, any Allied player that willingly submits to a CG PBEM has exactly zero grounds for complaint about the OOB IMO. Ditto those that never engage in this sort of mod. It's like complaining from afar about HRs in somebody else's game: it may not be your cup of tea (for some very good reasons), but decrying the HRs after you've agreed to them is self-serving IMO. If you know what you're getting into and agree to it then that's that.

For myself, as an exclusive Japanese player, I'd never ask for a game with this mod. I sure as heck wouldn't accept one as the Allied player either. If you do, then you get what you get.

_____________________________


(in reply to Anachro)
Post #: 1710
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