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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 3:43:17 AM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
Status: offline 		From the WHO situation report today, March 7, 2020.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200307-sitrep-47-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=27c364a4_2





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Post #: 421
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 3:52:57 AM   
ushakov

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Meanwhile: "Democrats are about twice as likely as Republicans to say the coronavirus poses an imminent threat to the United States, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this week."

I'm surprised a reputable pollster like Reuters allowed such a vague question - 'imminent threat' could have so many subjective meanings to the individual respondent that it seems almost meaningless!

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Post #: 422
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 4:31:56 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wouldn't think of ignoring China. That's the only country's that's been most of the way through this thing. To this point, Johns Hopkins and basically every other reporting service I've seen accepts China's numbers. Those numbers are very instructive, IMO. If those numbers are called into question, I'll take due notice. That would be bad. But China's numbers offer the single biggest point of optimism, at this point.

The US health care system may be great in its technology and expertise, but access to it is an issue for tens of millions of citizens and undocumented workers. I cannot see containment without some measures to ensure their cases are taken care of regardless of ability to pay. For-profit hospitals are not going to do it pro-bono.

I would like to see increased production of isolation suits for the health care workers and all of the paraphernalia needed to treat patients. We might need things like mobile incinerators to go to ad-hoc treatment facilities. If it turns out these things cannot be used right now, I think most of them can be stored away for the next emergency.

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Post #: 423
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 4:40:51 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline 		As if China hasn't suffered enough, one of the hotels they were using for COVID-19 treatment collapsed...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6644995/chinese-hotel-collapses-coronavirus/

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Post #: 424
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 5:01:47 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline 		Interestingly children seem to be good at fighting it off. Mostly symptoms of mild cold. According to reports no children under 10 have died of the virus though they have had it. "There is very limited information on the symptoms of Covid-19 in children, but they appear to be mild - fever, runny nose and a cough." BBC

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Post #: 425
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 5:04:26 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline 		Perhaps it is because their immune system is not as reactive as adults?

The coronavirus starts with a fever and a cough, these are symptoms many of us will deal with at winter.

But the virus can cause the immune system to over-react. One of the more severe symptoms is acute respiratory distress syndrome caused by widespread inflammation in the lungs.

Inflammation is how the body signals it is time to fight an infection and repair the body. At its simplest level it is why a cut feels sore, but it is actually a complex process throughout the body.

"Inflammation is a fine balancing act, if it goes wrong you die," says Dr Pankhania.

"The virus sets up cascading inflammation of organs; and severely inflamed organs cannot do what they're supposed to do."

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Post #: 426
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 8:43:25 AM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 402
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline 		Great analysis, Kull. Thank you for clarification.
So it left already the most dangerous acceleration.

Never the less South Korea showed how easily things could get out of control (in this case due to some fanatical morons) and how much additional afford is needed to win an uphill battle once the initiative is lost. (Btw, the measures and tools they used for this achievement regarding the SMS might or might not seen as appropriate in a more Western society, at least not the shame/blame by some irresponsible media).

Unfortunately here in Europe we are nowhere near this point, but still in an exponential (sic!) growing phase, a false feeling of safety (for example after direct flights to China were suspended in Italy's case _the beast_ was able to infiltrate the health system, a classic case of hospitalism). :-/
At least our kids (grandkids?) seemed to be fine, the median age of fatalities in Italy was > 80 y old.

Of course I would be glad proven wrong, while I never believed in these worst panic scenarios I still think this will become much bigger than an ordinary bad flu. Not to mention general behaviour...

But maybe we could agree that we are a) all dead in the long run anyway and b) society has always found the right answer (after trying everything else of course). :-)
The fight has just begun, anything but hopeless, but a stress test for every Nation - fight back RIGHT NOW or you deserve to die. Nothing new.

but what did we know? good luck everyone
/out

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Post #: 427
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 8:51:52 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline 		I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.

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Post #: 428
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 10:49:03 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.



Every cloud has a silver lining




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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 11:22:10 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.



Every cloud has a silver lining





I agree. Can we somehow get it even closer?

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Post #: 430
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 11:25:30 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

As if China hasn't suffered enough, one of the hotels they were using for COVID-19 treatment collapsed...

https://globalnews.ca/news/6644995/chinese-hotel-collapses-coronavirus/


At the end of the story:

"China, where the virus first emerged in December, has confirmed more than 80,000 cases, by far the most in the world. It reported 99 new cases on Saturday, its first daily increase of less than 100 since Jan. 20. . . . "

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Post #: 431
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 12:31:14 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

How is the situation in China similar to what any other country is doing to battle this outbreak?

They didn’t shut events, they shut entire provinces down, and NO ONE could leave their homes. At all. Dozens of millions of people. So they did get the RO below 1, but those people also have no immunity to the disease and are now back at work and going about business as normal. When will the next phase begin and cases again spike there?

Europe and the US especially will never do what China did, and the strain we now have spreading may even be different than the one that began there. More transmittable but less virulent hopefully.


But they did NOT do that at the beginning. It took about a month, and by then 100's of thousands of people had passed through the infected areas and moved all across the country. It doesn't matter how draconian your response is - give the flu a 1-month head start and "containment" is laughable. But somehow, it worked in China....why is that? The infection rate. It takes time for this thing to spread. It is not exponential. 1 person doesn't infect 50, more like 3 or 5.

That's the silver lining here. The rate of transmission is low enough that even if you fail to contain it completely, the growth of cases in each area should still be slow enough that the medical system can keep pace.


Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.

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Post #: 432
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 12:48:31 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline 		This from the Guardian's Covid-19 blog page today.

Indonesia confirmed on Sunday that two more people had tested positive for the coronavirus, taking the total of confirmed cases in the country to six.

One of the Indonesians is a 36-year-old male, a crew member on the Japan-docked Diamond Princess cruise ship where he contracted the virus, Health Ministry official Achmad Yurianto told a news briefing, according to Reuters.

The other Indonesian, a 55-year-old male, contracted the virus locally in Jakarta, Yurianto said.

“Both of them are in stable condition. They do not have fever, don’t need intravenous drip, oxygen, are not coughing, and don’t have a cold,” he said.

That last sentence has me both confused and worried. I get why the one from the Diamond Princess would have been tested, but why the other, who also apparently is asymptomatic? If people are moving around who have no symptoms, and are positive, they can do anything, go anywhere, and some of them undoubtedly will.

I was at a football match in South London, at Crystal Palace, but sitting in the visitor's stands with Watford fans. Mostly business as usual. Lots of singing and swearing. It was interesting that one pre-match song was a chant essentially taunting the Coronavirus. A group of young men brandishing pints and basically chanting "bring it on," we'll continue to defy it and drink our way through.

The young so often think they're invincible, and if they carry the virus asymptomatically, will spread it to others.

What to do about this? I really don't know.

With March Madness coming on, the NBA playoffs soon to follow, the football leagues in Europe moving toward their final months, and a lot of other ritual events of spring like Spring Break and Easter the will undoubtedly still lead to people getting out and gathering in large numbers. Especially the young.

Italy has just suspended top flight matches and further restricted movement from the North, but will it work? Is it too late?

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/8/2020 12:51:18 PM >

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Post #: 433
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 12:48:41 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.


Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.


And here's another post comparing those transmission rates to the flu.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.


BTW, that snide little shot is extremely offensive. I've done nothing over the past week BUT collect (and present) facts and data - don't accuse me of offering unsubstantiated opinions when it's you who hasn't bothered to read the posts or click the links.

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Post #: 434
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 12:52:36 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.


Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.


And here's another post comparing those transmission rates to the flu.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.


BTW, that snide little shot is extremely offensive. I've done nothing over the past week BUT collect (and present) facts and data - don't accuse me of offering unsubstantiated opinions when it's you who hasn't bothered to read the posts or click the links.


I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not.

_____________________________

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Post #: 435
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 12:59:28 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.


Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.


And here's another post comparing those transmission rates to the flu.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.


BTW, that snide little shot is extremely offensive. I've done nothing over the past week BUT collect (and present) facts and data - don't accuse me of offering unsubstantiated opinions when it's you who hasn't bothered to read the posts or click the links.


I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not.


Just make sure than that you don't get into close, personal contact with those young men.

Just be careful and make sure that you take proper precautions. That will help the most. The vaccine is being worked on already.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 436
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 1:00:42 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not.


Edit: My response was also the definition of snide. Uncalled for. My apologies.

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/8/2020 1:21:00 PM >

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Post #: 437
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 1:17:25 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Please link to where you've found infection rate numbers. Ive seen some different from what you're quoting. Obviously it would be great if they're much lower than flu, but lets have the data.

No one is being negative or pessimistic about this because they want to be. All indicators and professional opinions just seem to point toward an extended outbreak. This thread doesn't really matter in terms of outcomes or opinions of the general populace, but is for our own interest. So just as with the game, lets supply the necessary info (data and sources) to back up what we're saying. I want to learn more really, not have someones opinion about what they think might happen.


Almost every one of my posts has links. I don't put anything out there that isn't coming from a primary source. Here's my post from two days ago:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)" is quite informative, especially the first 15 pages (where they concentrate on facts and science).

The contact tracing was particularly informative (although there's lots of other good stuff - read it, damn it!!) Here's one example:

As of 17 February, in Shenzhen City, among 2842 identified close contacts, 2842 (100%) were traced and 2240 (72%) have completed medical observation. Among the close contacts, 88 (2.8%) were found to be infected with COVID-19.

Let that sink in. Among CLOSE CONTACTS, the transmission rate was 2.8%. The other examples were similar. Good luck hearing that from the media.


Ok. So here is a piece from the WHO report from mid-Feb you linked. The RO is the number of people a carrier transmits the disease to while infected.

At some point early in the outbreak, some cases generated human-to-human transmission chains that seeded the subsequent community outbreak prior to the implementation of the comprehensive control measures that were rolled out in Wuhan. The dynamics likely approximated mass action and radiated from Wuhan to other parts of Hubei province and China, which explains a relatively high R0 of 2-2.5.

Also this, about the extensive and innovative implementation of containment that was driven by early detection and isolation/treatment of cases. This led to a drop in deaths per case throughout the outbreak there.

As striking, has been the uncompromising rigor of strategy application that proved to be a hallmark in every setting and context where it was examined. There has also been a relentless focus on improving key performance indicators, for example constantly enhancing the speed of case detection, isolation and early treatment.


interestingly, the RO quoted here is 2-2.5. Similar but slightly lower than the WHO listed RO from the later Bloomberg article, which was 2.8. The RO for seasonal flu is 1.3.

Could Covid-19 really spread as widely as the flu? If allowed to, sure. The standard metric for infectiousness is what’s called the reproduction number, or R0. It is usually pronounced “R naught,” and the zero after the R should be rendered in subscript, but it’s a simple enough concept. An R0 of one means each person with the disease can be expected to infect one more person. If the number dips below one, the disease will peter out. If it gets much above one, the disease can spread rapidly.

They went on to say though that influenza may transmit more effectively if it's 30-50% asymtomaitic transfer rate is above that of Covid-19. So it's important to find out more about these asymptomatic cases.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/8/2020 1:18:03 PM >

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Post #: 438
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 1:22:56 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm speaking to everyone and to you. It's not snide. It's based on your previous post. Which had no information. Just calm down and don't take such offence. I'm not.


Edit: My response was also the definition of snide. Uncalled for. My apologies.


Accepted. I did read your links just now. I'd read some of it before but without knowing enough to know what was most relevant to recent events. I was only looking for stuff from the recent post and hadn't realised it was in the 15 page document. I found it, and posted about it above.

_____________________________

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Post #: 439
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 1:25:19 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline 		Using the John Hopkins numbers I see an interesting anomaly. Assuming reporting from Korea and Italy is accurate, and there is no reason tho think it isn't, the 2 countries have wildly different mortality rates. Korea is well below 1% while Italy is at 4%. Either the responses are significantly different or they are counting mortality differently. Meaning Korea may only be counting people that strictly died from this and Italy may be attributing already sick people that also passed while testing positive. Interesting data point to watch

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Post #: 440
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 1:29:16 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

They went on to say though that influenza may transmit more effectively if it's 30-50% asymtomaitic transfer rate is above that of Covid-19. So it's important to find out more about these asymptomatic cases.


I completely agree. It's not clear how the asymptomatic people can even spread this thing. I linked to a CDC statement in an earlier post and they flatly stated that the primary cause of transmission involved breathing in virus directly from the "cloud" coughed out by a carrier.

If so, it's hard to see how that occurs when somebody is asymptomatic. Although the clue may be that "78-85%" (another number from the WHO report) of infections occurred within households. Sustained contact? Easing up on personal sanitary procedures in a perceived "safe" environment? Dunno.

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Post #: 441
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 1:37:43 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Using the John Hopkins numbers I see an interesting anomaly. Assuming reporting from Korea and Italy is accurate, and there is no reason tho think it isn't, the 2 countries have wildly different mortality rates. Korea is well below 1% while Italy is at 4%. Either the responses are significantly different or they are counting mortality differently. Meaning Korea may only be counting people that strictly died from this and Italy may be attributing already sick people that also passed while testing positive. Interesting data point to watch


It could also be testing rates. Korea is the most progressive in terms of testing right now in the world. This leads to earlier isolation and earlier treatment.

I'm sure Italy has a higher rate of unknown cases than Korea based on testing rates alone, which cold account for some part of this difference at least.

Have a look at this from the Economist yesterday.

South Korea and China test regularly. In both places—excluding Hubei, where the virus began claiming lives before authorities formulated a response—0.5-1% of people who have tested positive have died. In other countries with at least one death, this rate is five times higher. Deaths are easier to count than infections are. The most likely explanation for this gap is that for every person diagnosed in these countries, four more do not know they are infected.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/8/2020 1:40:04 PM >

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Post #: 442
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 1:53:06 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Using the John Hopkins numbers I see an interesting anomaly. Assuming reporting from Korea and Italy is accurate, and there is no reason tho think it isn't, the 2 countries have wildly different mortality rates. Korea is well below 1% while Italy is at 4%. Either the responses are significantly different or they are counting mortality differently. Meaning Korea may only be counting people that strictly died from this and Italy may be attributing already sick people that also passed while testing positive. Interesting data point to watch


Just my personal opinion, but I think there's too much statistical noise in the numbers until you start to see a lot more cases. That said, Italy is looking like an anomaly (or more like "early China"). Here's the top 4 nations who have numbers we can probably trust:

---------Cases--Deaths--Death Rate
Korea - 7313 - 50 - 0.7%
Italy - 5883 - 233 - 4.0%
France - 949 - 16 - 1.7%
Germany- 951 - 0 - 0.0%



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Post #: 443
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 2:20:39 PM   
Wuffer

 

Posts: 402
Joined: 6/16/2011
Status: offline 		Erik, normally I wouldn't comment anything further, but there is a public (!) Pool of all scienticfic papers(*) where you can inform yourself, R0, complications, including possible long term issues etc.
I'm on my phone so can't provide any link atm (and happy that I canceled my med studium decades ago) but I think you will found the link on reddit. The abstracts are quite understandable without medical Background d.
As Camus said, the bigger enemy fighting plague is ignorance ... :-)

What did they know what we didn't know?
It makes no sense, neither for China nor Italy to risk their ecconomy and their powerbase etc. for... 'just-a-flu'.
The big decision came after decisionmakers get in touch with normal mortals and suddenly reaklized that their nice cottage isn't place to hide any longer.

Greetings a good wishes to all, I'm def. Out here with a phone that 'corrects' every word into my own lingo. :-)

(*) science, spectrum, medical Journals

(in reply to Kull)
Post #: 444
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 2:51:08 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		Well, I can understand you and sometimes I have difficulty understanding English.

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(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 445
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 2:52:36 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.



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Post #: 446
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 3:01:39 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.



CB, Warspite is being alarmist. After all, that's 16 kilometers.

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Post #: 447
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 3:41:11 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I posted this in the General Discussion thread on this topic. However, I believe that due to the seriousness of this, it behooves me to paste here too in case people haven't seen it.

I'm really surprised that no one commenting on these Coronavirus threads has picked up on the key news. It was reported in a newspaper in the UK on Friday that there is an area in California that has recorded its first case... and that is just ten miles from where the Kardashians live.

Can we get real here people - let's stay concentrated on what's important. I say again, ten miles.



CB, Warspite is being alarmist. After all, that's 16 kilometers.


But that is still too far away.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

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(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 448
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 4:01:23 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

interestingly, the RO quoted here is 2-2.5. Similar but slightly lower than the WHO listed RO from the later Bloomberg article, which was 2.8. The RO for seasonal flu is 1.3.


Be verrrrry careful when using R0 values to compare Covid-19 and the flu. Here's the critical piece of information that Bloomberg failed to include in their article (shocker):

"Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:

- no one has been vaccinated
- no one has had the disease before
- there’s no way to control the spread of the disease"

Does that apply to Covid-19? The first two yes, the third, well "it depends" (as we are seeing country-by-country around the world).

Does it apply to the flu? The factors are actually reversed. The first two are usually mitigators (depressing the R0), while very little is done on the 3rd, since society willingly accepts half a million global deaths every flu season (i.e. no travel bans, no social distancing, etc).

And really, since NONE of those three values are completely true in the case of each disease, it means you need to take R0 values with a very large grain of salt, every time you see them used.

Read up on R0 values and what they mean here.

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Post #: 449
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/8/2020 4:27:32 PM   
Fishbed

 

Posts: 1822
Joined: 11/21/2005
From: Beijing, China - Paris, France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

What did they know what we didn't know?
It makes no sense, neither for China nor Italy to risk their ecconomy and their powerbase etc. for... 'just-a-flu'.
The big decision came after decisionmakers get in touch with normal mortals and suddenly reaklized that their nice cottage isn't place to hide any longer.

Greetings a good wishes to all, I'm def. Out here with a phone that 'corrects' every word into my own lingo. :-)

(*) science, spectrum, medical Journals


Well obviously it's not just a flu - but the most exposed population is arguably the elderly. And I am going to sound like a butt, but my feeling is that France, right now, is not doing more simply because it is making that kind of cynical calculation. That losing another fraction of our GDP is not worth protecting further people who cost money because of our public retirement plan and social security, and might have died in the next flu or heat episode. They even say that the most exposed group is the elderly with pre-existing condition - how nice! Go back home if you can still walk - if not, feel welcome to lay in this bed, you're the lucky one!

Any measure we would take now would only have a real result between 12 and 16 days AFTER it is taken. And still we don't take them. So that we can grab each and every little bit of richness and growth we can and hopefully not get (further) into the recession that the bad numbers of late 2019 were already announcing, even without a flu to blame for.

And who knows! "the virus doesn't like the heat"! Well maybe fortune will favor the bold and Spring will come in kicking ass, solving France's problem in her stead! Ain't that beautiful? Silly Italians, am I right!

I am French, I live in China, and I find this situation distasteful, if not disgusting. Cheers.

(of course it's not directed at you Wuffer, just used your post as a stepstone for my own rant )

< Message edited by Fishbed -- 3/8/2020 4:30:29 PM >

(in reply to Wuffer)
Post #: 450
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