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RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/10/2020 5:41:25 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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This is worth reading:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

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Post #: 241
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/10/2020 6:23:36 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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I read her reasoning via twitter a few days ago. Scary. Her maths are describing what happened in ground zero: Wuhan and now Italy (poor and incompetent Iran has to be another sort of hell, they possibly stopped testing people): utterly overwhelmed and on the brink of collapse. I read Italian doctors' accounts... horrible

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Post #: 242
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/10/2020 6:39:54 PM   
z1812


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I live in Toronto. Last night I watched a news program where the commentator remarked that she had been shopping and the shelves were becoming empty and there was no bathroom tissue to be had. She also said the store was virtually empty.

I had to shop today at our local supermarket which is a normally busy store. People were shopping and all items were available as far as I could see. All was normal.

I also did some math according to 2018-19 statistics for the "normal" Flu. 300,000 to 600,000 died. I erred on the side of caution and used a figure of 200,000 and divided that by 195 ( number of world countries ), that works out to 1,025 deaths per country. Fortunately we are nowhere near that yet.

Also there are two different corona virus' at work. Link below.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/

It seems to me one is like a regular, but very virulent Flu and the other more like Sars. So the regular one would be the very contagious virus responsible for the lighter cases, where most recover, and the other would be like Sars; much less contagious but much more deadly. That would also account for the reports about young, and otherwise healthy adults, who have quickly succumbed to the illness. Mind you this is only my speculation.

I am not underestimating the seriousness of the situation, but facts, perspective, and context is important.


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Post #: 243
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/10/2020 7:01:51 PM   
z1812


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More bad news from Italy.

Leading Italian public health expert Nino Cartabellotta offers a stark perspective on the coronavirus outbreak in Italy.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/health-expert-coronavirus-lethality-italy-higher-china-200310120514339.html

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Post #: 244
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/10/2020 7:29:44 PM   
RangerJoe


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Here are some links:

https://blog.getpocket.com/2020/03/corona-virus-collection/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

Coronavirus: nine reasons to be reassured
Yes, Covid-19 is serious, but context is key and the world is well placed to deal with it
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-reasons-to-be-reassured

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Post #: 245
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/10/2020 7:40:46 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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This is also worth looking over:

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1237347774951305216

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Post #: 246
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 2:48:41 AM   
Gilmer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: balto

Gilmer, you are golden if you had Corona. Corona symptoms are identical to the flu.., and of course you survived as does everyone with decent health. Go out and party everywhere because you are now immune.


Well, I hope it was not Coronavirus, because I probably infected people. They did say I was giving them the flu. And I wasn't. But, I wonder if they knew to check for anything other than the regular flu?

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Post #: 247
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 12:58:35 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus
China [...] will soon be sending to the rest of the world equipment, experience, doctors and nurses... stay tuned


two days later errrrr





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Post #: 248
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 1:18:24 PM   
rommel222

 

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Greetings to All,
Gov Cuomo deploys National Guard to to contain Corona Virus in NY state:
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/10/814164923/new-york-state-deploys-national-guard-to-manage-coronavirus-in-nyc-suburb

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Post #: 249
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 1:29:26 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

3. How does not touching your face help against the virus?

Respiratory infections such as pneumonia or the flu, can spread through droplets in the air when someone sick coughs, sneezes or talks near an uninfected person, according to the Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology (APIC). This runs similar to how the CDC believes COVID-19 spreads.

"Respiratory infections can be caused by many different bacteria, viruses, and other disease-causing germs," according to the APIC. "When you touch your face with dirty, unwashed hands, germs can take up residence in your mucus membranes which can lead to an infection."

Respiratory infections can not only spread through respiratory droplets, but through contact as well.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/5-questions-on-protecting-yourself-against-the-coronavirus-answered-by-experts/697610


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Post #: 250
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 1:30:50 PM   
RangerJoe


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Move to the hot, humid tropics!

quote:

Hong Kong University pathology professor John Nicholls said that he suspected three factors would potentially kill the virus, according to the transcript of a private conference call in early February.

"Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature and 3. Humidity," Nicholls said in remarks that were leaked on social media. "The virus can remain intact at 4 degrees Celsius (39 degrees Fahrenheit) or 10 degrees C (50 F)...But at 30 degrees C (86 degrees F) then you get inactivation."

The CDC has cautioned that not enough is known about the virus to say for sure that weather will affect the spread, but a spokesperson said, "I’m happy to hope that it [the threat] goes down as the weather warms up."


https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/whats-the-latest-on-coronavirus/691967



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Post #: 251
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 1:31:10 PM   
RangerJoe


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In other news related to this:

NASA images show amazing reduction in pollution over China believed to be linked to coronavirus outbreak

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/china-pollution-levels-fall-during-coronavirus-outbreak/693879

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Post #: 252
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 1:59:13 PM   
Zorch

 

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Repurposed drugs may help scientists fight the new coronavirus https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid19-repurposed-treatments-drugs

Work on similar viruses is giving researchers clues to develop drugs against the disease

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Post #: 253
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 2:30:04 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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Someone was wondering earlier how it does on surfaces and how to disinfect. Here's some info:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463






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Post #: 254
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 2:46:19 PM   
z1812


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Someone was wondering earlier how it does on surfaces and how to disinfect. Here's some info:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195670120300463







That is truly frightening.

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Post #: 255
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 2:49:41 PM   
RangerJoe


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How to Make Your Own Disinfectant Bleach Solution

quote:

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommends using a 1:10 solution for disinfecting surfaces and objects that may have been tainted by contagions. Be sure to follow these steps exactly to make a safe and effective bleach solution.



https://www.verywellhealth.com/make-your-own-disinfectant-solution-998274

For larger areas:

Cleaning and Sanitizing with Bleach after an Emergency
There is also a chart in the web page:

quote:

Using Cleaning & Sanitizing Products

First, wash surfaces with soap and warm, clean water to remove dirt and debris. Next, sanitize surfaces with household bleach.

It is critical to read and follow the safety instructions on any product you use. Below are the most important safety guidelines when using sanitizing products:

Never mix bleach with ammonia or any other cleaner.
Wear rubber or other non-porous boots, gloves, and eye protection.
Try not to breathe in product fumes. If using products indoors, open windows and doors to allow fresh air to enter.


https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/bleach.html

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Post #: 256
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 3:03:41 PM   
Erik Rutins

 

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Good interview regarding COVID-19

https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

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Post #: 257
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 3:14:20 PM   
z1812


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https://nypost.com/2020/02/16/chinese-bank-to-destroy-cash-in-areas-hit-by-coronavirus/

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Post #: 258
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 3:26:29 PM   
TulliusDetritus


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what a time to be alive...

"Coronavirus Conference Gets Canceled Because of Coronavirus"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/coronavirus-conference-gets-canceled-because-of-coronavirus

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Post #: 259
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 3:34:46 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: z1812

https://nypost.com/2020/02/16/chinese-bank-to-destroy-cash-in-areas-hit-by-coronavirus/


Dig out your old black lights and just say that you are disinfecting!

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Post #: 260
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 6:15:28 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.


Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.

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Post #: 261
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 6:25:42 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.


Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.
warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.


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Post #: 262
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 6:56:58 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.


Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.
warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.



I still think that you are still correct about co-pathogens and other factors. Apparently the older men in China who tended to smoke tobacco have a much higher mortality rate than women of the same age who tended not to smoke. Also other factors such as heart disease, diabetes, obesity, et al are not usually found in the children who catch it and shrug it off.

Italy also has a much higher rate of cigarette smoking as well.

_____________________________

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(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 263
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 7:11:46 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.


Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.
warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.



I still think that you are still correct about co-pathogens and other factors. Apparently the older men in China who tended to smoke tobacco have a much higher mortality rate than women of the same age who tended not to smoke. Also other factors such as heart disease, diabetes, obesity, et al are not usually found in the children who catch it and shrug it off.

Italy also has a much higher rate of cigarette smoking as well.
warspite1

May have been noted before, but apparently Italy has the oldest population in Europe. Almost a quarter over 65.


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Post #: 264
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 7:17:26 PM   
Zorch

 

Posts: 7087
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Something I think missing from most breathless news coverage is relative risk. In the United States, 34,000-44,000 people die annually from influenza and complications from influenza. Probably that number times 100 are clinically affected, but recover. Other countries have similar incidence/case fatality rate per unit of population.

My guess is that those individuals that tested positive for the Wuhan Coronavirus were *not* screened or reported for co-pathogens or factors that could substantially influence co-morbidity. For example, how many of the reported deaths "due to Coronavirus" were also screened for influenza or other causes of bacterial pneumonia? What number of the coronavirus-ascribed mortality were elderly with pre-existing conditions related to respiratory failure? I haven't seen any reports of insight into the effects that mundane features / causes of respiratory disease are being screened and weighed relative to their importance.

The Wuhan Coronavirus (2019) is an interesting development that bears watching. But let's not lose sight of the forest for the trees. It's still a novel respiratory pathogen that is unlikely to be a pandemic or even a major WHO health concern.

Take a deep breath. Remember the tendency of media towards the salacious: see SARS, Ebola (outside of West Africa) and any number of other novel health developments. Outside of the central nidus of viral origin, none of these 'outbreaks' bore out the drama that media heaped upon them at the time.


Just wanted to keep it real. In the third post on this thread (from January), I poo-pooed the possibility of this becoming a major disease issue or the WHO declaring this a pandemic. While much of what I thought would happen with this disease has happened, I understated the contagious nature of this disease to spread globally. I was wrong. Mea culpa and all that.
warspite1

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Good of you to say it but frankly what you thought was understandable given the previous scares.



I still think that you are still correct about co-pathogens and other factors. Apparently the older men in China who tended to smoke tobacco have a much higher mortality rate than women of the same age who tended not to smoke. Also other factors such as heart disease, diabetes, obesity, et al are not usually found in the children who catch it and shrug it off.

Italy also has a much higher rate of cigarette smoking as well.
warspite1

May have been noted before, but apparently Italy has the oldest population in Europe. Almost a quarter over 65.


Yes, some of them can even remember HMS Warspite.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 265
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 7:35:42 PM   
Orm


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Yes, some of them can even remember HMS Warspite.

Yes, with horror. They use true stories about HMS Warspite to scare children. And to teach them to never mess with the Royal Navy again.

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Post #: 266
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 7:50:42 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Yes, some of them can even remember HMS Warspite.

Yes, with horror. They use true stories about HMS Warspite to scare children. And to teach them to never mess with the Royal Navy again.


I am sure that they tell the girls that. But they probably also tell them to mess with the US Navy!

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Post #: 267
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/11/2020 8:11:02 PM   
wesy


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I live in the SF Bay Area and work for a tech firm. Work from home directive (which is what I do anyway), San Francisco just directed to cancel all events >=1000 people. The Golden State Warriors will be the first team in the NBA to play with an empty arena.

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Post #: 268
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/12/2020 12:45:32 AM   
Erik Rutins

 

Posts: 37503
Joined: 3/28/2000
From: Vermont, USA
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

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Erik Rutins
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(in reply to wesy)
Post #: 269
RE: OT - The New Coronavirus - 3/12/2020 12:45:54 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Chickenboy may be the single most qualified person on the forum (at least, that I know of) to offer educated/experienced insight into what's going on.

I'm glad he's posting. I hope he'll continue to do so. I hope he won't be dissuaded by the fact that some (one?) of his early-on predictions missed.


(in reply to wesy)
Post #: 270
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