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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 3:37:23 AM   
pontiouspilot


Posts: 1127
Joined: 7/27/2012
Status: offline 		Damm....and just as I was going to stand on road selling toilet paper for $5/roll!!.....god knows that might help take sting outa Dow thumping I took.

(in reply to Jorge_Stanbury)
Post #: 901
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 3:51:32 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Damm....and just as I was going to stand on road selling toilet paper for $5/roll!!.....god knows that might help take sting outa Dow thumping I took.



Right on! 20 dollars a roll on the side of the road. Probably get rich with these clowns running around!

(in reply to pontiouspilot)
Post #: 902
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 4:47:20 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline 		Hell at this point I just want to get the thing and be over it.

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 903
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 7:32:54 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

Hell at this point I just want to get the thing and be over it.
warspite1

I'd second that emotion. This is now really boring. I was supposed to see Mickey again in Florida this summer but that looks like it's not going to happen.....


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 904
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 8:11:28 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I'd like to post a few things I've found in terms of what might work to make this virus less lethal. A lot of clinical trials in China will be at the results stage in April, so expect more news then.

First, Chlorquine Phosphate and Hydroxychlorquine Phosphate. These seem to be helping and South Korea seems to be using these and Zinc as their go-to at this point.

"BREAKING: S. Korea significantly reducing lethality of coronavirus by prescribing a chloroquine diphosphate salt + zinc treatment combo to block COVID-19 viral enzyme @ 500 mg per day of chloroquine + zinc for 10 days"




I just saw this too. Very positive news and I hope there is a big supply of this around.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Erik Rutins)
Post #: 905
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 12:58:02 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

I'd like to post a few things I've found in terms of what might work to make this virus less lethal. A lot of clinical trials in China will be at the results stage in April, so expect more news then.

First, Chlorquine Phosphate and Hydroxychlorquine Phosphate. These seem to be helping and South Korea seems to be using these and Zinc as their go-to at this point.

"BREAKING: S. Korea significantly reducing lethality of coronavirus by prescribing a chloroquine diphosphate salt + zinc treatment combo to block COVID-19 viral enzyme @ 500 mg per day of chloroquine + zinc for 10 days"




I just saw this too. Very positive news and I hope there is a big supply of this around.


You should be able to get zinc throat lozenges at a store or a pharmacy in the anti-cold section.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 906
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 1:23:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The current tallies as of the 15th.

Russia isn't listed near the top, because its reports are low. They seem oddly low. Russia has either had minimal exposure or isn't reporting fully or accurately. Given what's going on to its south and west, probably the latter.

Edited to Clarify: The USA daily death total of 3 is for just a part of the day. The past three days or so, it has been around 6-8 each day (the highest total we've had is 8, three times).




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/15/2020 2:16:38 PM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 907
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 1:29:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		This chart is interesting and bears watching.

Reports of mortality fluctuate each day, depending on when a country reports and whether it does. And it's too early to make confident predictions from early data. If this pandemic continues to spiral out of control, trends on the chart should reflect that. And when the pandemic begins to taper off, that will be reflected here (eventually).

Some of the fluctuations may be due to the rise and fall in Asia, now replaced by the rise in Italy and Europe, and presumably another surge when the USA and the Western Hemisphere develop fully. We may be a week behind Europe, give or take.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/15/2020 1:30:31 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 908
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 1:53:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Number of cases is a highly suspect number, given lack of and delays in testing.

Mortality statistics should be more reliable. There are subsets there that would be important (did the deceased have contributing underlying conditions, age, confinement, etc.), but overall mortality numbers should reflect a pandemic and the scale of that pandemic...and when it is tapering off and coming to an end.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 909
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 2:29:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		This tracks South Korea's experience, which was similar to China's, and offers hope to other countries.

As the epidemic peaked in Korea two weeks ago, mortality percentage matched the recovery percentage - as many people had died as had recovered. Gradually, in the two weeks since then, the percentage of recoveries has far exceeded mortality.

In Italy, currently, the percentage of recoveries is slightly better than mortality. Perhaps it's situation is improving.

In the USA, the percentage of mortalities exceed the percentage of recoveries. If the emergency methods enacted plus the quality of healthcare kicks in, that will change eventually. We're still dealing with small numbers in the USA (both mortality and recover and, really, active cases reported), so it's too early to know where we stand.




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 910
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 2:34:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		A favorable trend in Italy. Caveat: there is a chance that Italy is overwhelmed at the moment, so that reporting lags. That may or may not be true, but bears keeping in mind while looking to see the trend solidify over the next few days, if that should happen.




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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 911
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 2:53:13 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Another one, also recorded Friday, from Peter Attia.


https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-update-03152020/


In this episode, Dr. Paul Grewal, M.D. joins Peter to discuss what they have learned in the past week in the midst of the rapid changes surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Their conversation touches on both optimism and uncertainty: actionable steps we can take to improve the situation with the understanding that it is too late for viral containment. Specifically, Peter and Paul discuss some promising drug treatments, reasons for isolating-behavior adoption, and what they are personally instituting in their own lives. 


Disclaimer: This is information accurate as of March 13, 2020, when it was recorded.

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 912
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 3:37:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Unfortunately it seems like Spain is about to undergo the same kind of thing Italy's been dealing with the past week or two. It seems likely that France will follow suit.

But the underlying numbers continue to be somewhat encouraging. We have a good picture from China and South Korea. It will be essential to see how things go in Italy over the next week, but some early numbers and trends are encouraging. If that proves true, it's likely to be similar in other countries in Europe, followed by America, etc. And those countries that experienced on-set later than others, due to distance or whatever, may have learned enough, and may be able to implement things soon enough, to avoid or dampen an Italy-like experience.

To this point, China and South Korea didn't experience catastrophic numbers. The deaths, sickness and impact on people and economies are real, but the number of deaths (the most reliable statistic, to this early point) are far less than a seasonal flu. Will that happen in Italy? I think so, though I'm not yet positive. But the numbers and trends are modestly encouraging, this early on.

There will be fluctuations in other countries, such as Singapore and Malaysia and perhaps Germany showing surprisingly low death rates while some others will pop the other way. But, overall, I'll be surprised if the trends don't follow what we're beginning to see elsewhere.

Those are observations based upon reports by apparently reputable sites, along with what I read in here and from some mainline news organizations. I am not plugged into social media, so I'm not privy to what may be going on there, but I suspect it's feeding a sense of doom, much as the media typically does. In some ways, that may be good as it gets people off their duffs and acting. But aside from the hysteria that's evident, the underlying numbers may be encouraging. And the level of response and quality of healthcare in countries now experiencing exponential growth should make a difference.

Over the next 24 hours, Italy will be key. If it mushrooms again, my optimism will dampen a bit. If the current trend continues, then we've got something to work with.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/15/2020 3:41:55 PM >

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 913
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 3:52:21 PM   
Kursk1943

 

Posts: 445
Joined: 3/15/2014
From: Bavaria in Southern Germany
Status: offline 		My trip planned for tomorrow to Spain for a holiday week was cancelled today, no flights anymore, because Spain declared the state of emergency yesterday. People have to stay at home, non essential shops will be closed. In Germany schools and universities will be closed from tomorrow on for at least 4 weeks. In Berlin clubs and bars are closed, no more soccer matches, no more concerts and so on. I think we will follow the way Spain and Italy are already going within one week. Shops are still full, toilet paper still available!

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 914
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 3:57:13 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline 		UK now considering voluntary isolation for up to four months for over-70s

Panic buying in full swing sadly, but plenty of stock available

Not sure the UK government are up to it at the moment, but they do appear to be swinging more behind the global effort rather than what looks like a bit of ad-hoc social engineering.


_____________________________


(in reply to Kursk1943)
Post #: 915
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 4:25:41 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Friends had trip leaving today US to Australia for almost two weeks stay. Cancelled, as upon arrival in Australia they would have been subject to the (newly implemented) 14-day quarantine.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 916
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 4:39:41 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Friends had trip leaving today US to Australia for almost two weeks stay. Cancelled, as upon arrival in Australia they would have been subject to the (newly implemented) 14-day quarantine.


Tell them to look at the bright side, at least they weren't in the air when the quarantine was established!

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 917
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 5:11:09 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Unfortunately it seems like Spain is about to undergo the same kind of thing Italy's been dealing with the past week or two. It seems likely that France will follow suit.


The problem with these (and other) countries is that they had the opportunity to look at Italy and be better prepared when their turn came. They didn't.

I saw a story about Spain: on (or around) March, 8th they held big political rallies, big marches to commemorate Women's Day etc. At the same time here in Italy we were already almost on lockdown, with all forms of gatherings forbidden. Women's Day was respected by saluting women at a distance - and with stories on televisions showing the women on the "frontlines": doctors, nurses, researchers etc.

But, no. In Spain (and other places, like the UK) people still went to watch soccer matches, gathered, embraced, kissed... I mean, what could possibly go wrong?



_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 918
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 5:12:40 PM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
Joined: 8/23/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline 		Austria is getting totally locked down from now on... crazy

_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 919
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 5:16:28 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Gents, see the remarkable post by RFalvo in the General thread about the virus. He lives in Italy and posted at length yesterday.

RFalvo, how're things there today? Good luck.

The European countries were at a disadvantage too, being so close to Italy in timing of the outbreak. But there's no doubt Italy's experience hastened reaction eventually.

And that's certainly the case in the US and some other countries. I think Europe triggered a much sharper reaction by the USA. We went from business as usual on Wednesday, in most places, to serious action on Thursday.

(in reply to castor troy)
Post #: 920
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 5:22:22 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		I have to go out as I am moving. I have no vehicle so it is difficult. I am in a few high risk groups but I am armed with knowledge.

One thing important to know is that a 60% ethanol solution will kill the virus. The problem is that I don't think that I can consume enough alcohol to get there.

Another good thing to know is that there is an asthma medication that can be administered which can help people to get better. But it is not albuterol.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 921
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 7:47:47 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline 		https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Survival of the vilest.

_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 922
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 7:58:50 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Olorin

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Survival of the vilest.


Do not get political, please.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 923
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 8:02:12 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Olorin

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Survival of the vilest.

That is too political Olorin.

On the policy level, the idea that one can create a silo of calm and economic growth by closing borders and fixing the contagion within borders is not likely to work. International trade is what drives the economies of most nations beyond subsistence to progress. But international trade will require that the virus be beaten down everywhere to a tolerable level. So one country trying to monopolize any part of the response is counterproductive.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 924
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 8:17:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Today's numbers are in from Italy and aren't good.




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(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 925
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 8:21:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I worry about the moment when readers/Forumites experience the virus firsthand, or their family member does. It'll be hard for them to see academic discussions taking place when, for them, it's suddenly very personal and frightening and emotional.

That's already happened in the General Discussion virus thread, where a Forumite named Red saw his elderly mother diagnosed and given no chance of recovery.


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 926
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 8:23:59 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Olorin

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/15/trump-offers-large-sums-for-exclusive-access-to-coronavirus-vaccine

Survival of the vilest.

Frankly, I doubt the veracity of the "anonymous source".

_____________________________

Intel Monkey: https://sites.google.com/view/staffmonkeys/home

(in reply to Olorin)
Post #: 927
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 8:44:46 PM   
Olorin


Posts: 1019
Joined: 4/22/2008
From: Greece
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
That is too political Olorin.


Sorry, my intention wasn't to get political, but to comment on fallen human nature.
In times of crisis, the worst and best in men comes forth. If things get worse, we will see more of this.



_____________________________

"Drang nach Osten"
--A TOAWIII AAR--

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 928
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 9:05:01 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I worry about the moment when readers/Forumites experience the virus firsthand, or their family member does. It'll be hard for them to see academic discussions taking place when, for them, it's suddenly very personal and frightening and emotional.

That's already happened in the General Discussion virus thread, where a Forumite named Red saw his elderly mother diagnosed and given no chance of recovery.


warspite1

Indeed. I have two nephews in the front line (nursing staff) and one of the recent UK deaths was at the hospital they work in. This sort of thing brings home the reality and it stops being about numbers and people in far off places.....


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 929
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/15/2020 9:23:00 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		Yeah, some of you know that I work for a 911 response company. We have 1800 young men and women on the very front line. The rest of us office weenies, they split us into to two shifts hoping that both shifts don't fall sick at the same time and leave the front teams with no support. We'll see. God speed to the crews …

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 930
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