Slitherine

quote:

A fundamental difference between India and Australia, according to experts, is that many Asian countries have experience in dealing with the threat of a disease epidemic.

"Asian countries have been primed for some time now," Professor K Shrinath Reddy from the Public Health Foundation of India told the ABC.

"You [Australia] have lost a bit of touch with infectious diseases."

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

But perhaps Niall should stick to history, and not dabble in mathematics.

quote:

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

In above link.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

A very interesting article, and something I mentioned very early on, when those first two cases showed up. No testing, who knows how many cases, and odd isn't that people leaving Indonesia seem to have contracted it there?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

But perhaps Niall should stick to history, and not dabble in mathematics.

quote:

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

In above link.

Ahhh, the joys of choosing soundbites out of context. I'm pretty sure basic maths is in his sphere of knowledge.

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

But he believes the spread of coronavirus may be doubling even more quickly.

"We think epidemics in the absence of control measures … probably double every five days or so. And only about one in 100 people infected die," Professor Ferguson said.

"The deaths we see today take 20 days or so from when you develop symptoms to when they die. So the deaths we see today correspond to the epidemic 20 days ago.

"And that gives you … the epidemic must have been about 10 times smaller then. You multiply that by a factor of 100 in cases to death. And you get about a 1,000-fold multiplier."

In fact, a lower death rate — of say 0.5, which some scientists support — would indicate an even higher number of cases in the community, because statistically it would mean one death per 200 cases instead of one in every 100.

And adding on fro the article on India (thanks Ian R, very interesting read).

Over the past two decades, Professor Reddy listed a range of diseases as having "knocked at the door" of India, including H1N1 (swine flu), H5N1 (bird flu) and SARS.

Swine flu in particular has been difficult to eradicate, and so far at least 28 people have died from the infection this year, compared to only three confirmed deaths from COVID-19.

The experience has reinforced the view in India that harsh responses might come at an economic cost, but they're worth it.

"The economic cost of letting it run through the country like a blazing fire is much higher," Professor Reddy said.

So we may see two countries with similar demographics battle this in very different ways. The last sentence makes me fear the impact of Indonesia's response so far.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That chart of Italy's daily deaths, with two days of encouraging decline, is as of 3/23. Today's update should come around 1 p.m. eastern (US) time. Everybody with their finger on the pulse of this thing is awaiting those numbers.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

But perhaps Niall should stick to history, and not dabble in mathematics.

quote:

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

In above link.

Ahhh, the joys of choosing soundbites out of context. I'm pretty sure basic maths is in his sphere of knowledge.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Daily Mail posted this startling, misleading graph. It tells the truth but not the whole truth. A percentage of the population (certainly Forumites) understand the utility and weaknesses of this graph, but the media presents it without context (without "the whole truth" so often key to comprehension). The casual reader - the layman - doesn't have context, takes a look, and shudders. He knows that Italy has been ground zero for weeks and concludes that the US is in far worse shape. He doesn't have time to do the quick calculation needed to understand this is raw numbers rather than per capita, that the graph has a seriously distorted y axis, etc.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

And here is what is happening in India:

Situation in Inda

quote:

A fundamental difference between India and Australia, according to experts, is that many Asian countries have experience in dealing with the threat of a disease epidemic.

"Asian countries have been primed for some time now," Professor K Shrinath Reddy from the Public Health Foundation of India told the ABC.

"You [Australia] have lost a bit of touch with infectious diseases."

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

But perhaps Niall should stick to history, and not dabble in mathematics.

quote:

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

In above link.

Ahhh, the joys of choosing soundbites out of context. I'm pretty sure basic maths is in his sphere of knowledge.

The nicest thing I've Heard said about Niall was by Sir Antony Beevor (during questions at the end of a a talk) - something to the effect -

'I prefer to leave the counter factuals to Niall Ferguson and Andrew Roberts"

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

A very interesting article, and something I mentioned very early on, when those first two cases showed up. No testing, who knows how many cases, and odd isn't that people leaving Indonesia seem to have contracted it there?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

But perhaps Niall should stick to history, and not dabble in mathematics.

quote:

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

In above link.

Ahhh, the joys of choosing soundbites out of context. I'm pretty sure basic maths is in his sphere of knowledge.

Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

But he believes the spread of coronavirus may be doubling even more quickly.

"We think epidemics in the absence of control measures … probably double every five days or so. And only about one in 100 people infected die," Professor Ferguson said.

"The deaths we see today take 20 days or so from when you develop symptoms to when they die. So the deaths we see today correspond to the epidemic 20 days ago.

"And that gives you … the epidemic must have been about 10 times smaller then. You multiply that by a factor of 100 in cases to death. And you get about a 1,000-fold multiplier."

In fact, a lower death rate — of say 0.5, which some scientists support — would indicate an even higher number of cases in the community, because statistically it would mean one death per 200 cases instead of one in every 100.

And adding on fro the article on India (thanks Ian R, very interesting read).

Over the past two decades, Professor Reddy listed a range of diseases as having "knocked at the door" of India, including H1N1 (swine flu), H5N1 (bird flu) and SARS.

Swine flu in particular has been difficult to eradicate, and so far at least 28 people have died from the infection this year, compared to only three confirmed deaths from COVID-19.

The experience has reinforced the view in India that harsh responses might come at an economic cost, but they're worth it.

"The economic cost of letting it run through the country like a blazing fire is much higher," Professor Reddy said.

So we may see two countries with similar demographics battle this in very different ways. The last sentence makes me fear the impact of Indonesia's response so far.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Assuming I'm not being whooshed by a joke here - I think this is a sub-editing error. There is a Neil Ferguson at Imperial College who is an epidemiologist who I assume is the person who is actually being quoted.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson

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ORIGINAL: DD696

The governor of New York is giving daily news conference, predicting their apex in 14-21 days and they will need 140,000 hospital beds and 40,000 ventilators. They have 3000 ventilators and states he has procured an additional 7000. He wants FEMA to send ALL of their stockpile - 20,000 - to New York now. When he is through with them he will send them to whoever needs them next.

I think there is something wrong with that view. We all will have needs. Ration them appropriately.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the cases chart with the relatively new multi-country charts below. Very interesting comparisons, and some countries that are starting to have worrying trajectories, like Turkey, Pakistan and Ecuador.

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Switching focus to our northern neighbor, Indonesia's apparent "luck" seems to simply be a case of non testing, non reporting, and non treatment.

Coronavirus COVID-19 death rate in Indonesia is the highest in the world. Experts say it's because reported case numbers are too low

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

... I gave a talk in Colombia in the late 1990s...

quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

I believe that we have to wait until the end of the week. If it doesn't change the trend, we are really, really ****ed.


This morning the commander in chief of the emergency said that there are probably ten times more cases around the country (asymptomatics) and with today's not encouraging data, it's gonna be tough.

Let's see whether tomorrow will be better. Second highes deathtoll since the beginning of the epidemy is not encouraging at all.

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Unfortunate about Italy though based on say, China, I suspect that part of the flattening will involve an actual plateau, as opposed to a sudden decline.

It's funny how anxious I am for their results hahaha.

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

Unfortunate about Italy though based on say, China, I suspect that part of the flattening will involve an actual plateau, as opposed to a sudden decline.

It's funny how anxious I am for their results hahaha.