Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: obvert

Ok. This just blew my mind. Not sure what to make of it and if there is anything to it or not.

It doesn't seem plausible in any of the other major early centers of the disease; Wuhan, but especially Italy, as the population shouldn't support this theory. On the other hand there are so many reported asymptomatic cases and the Diamond Princess is still a conundrum. Thoughts?

I'll post some details since there is a paywall.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?sharetype=blocked

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 

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ORIGINAL: witpqs
The trouble with anti-body testing (AFAIK) is that it does not confirm when a person was infected or developed the anti-bodies, so by the time that could be done it still might do nothing to confirm this theory.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

Can you pull that?

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ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

Of course, I can't find a link to the story now, but this morning North Carolina decided to scale back on the COVID-19 testing they are doing. They want to limit testing to high risk groups, including healthcare workers.

Frankly, I agree with the decision, as wide scale testing of the public at this point won't provide nearly the benefit it could have if we were still able to focus on containment of the outbreak. Use the resources available where they can do the most good.

One impact of this decision, significant impact if it's echoed in many other states, will be an artificial drop in the numbers of new confirmed cases. Just another variable that makes me want to lend more weight to the number of deaths over the number of confirmed cases, despite the death numbers also having their limitations.

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Research into the possible effects of heat, humidity and population density on the transmission of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has led some to consider that warmer weather during spring and summer in the Northern Hemisphere may lead to a decrease in the number of cases of COVID-19, the illness it causes, but there is a range of opinions on the matter in the infectious disease community.

The effect of the sun’s ultraviolet rays may play a larger role than even heat and humidity. As the probe into what role weather may play in the spread of COVID-19 continues, a data analysis may provide some new clues for what to expect in the United States as summer approaches. In particular, a look at the per capita infection rates of Iceland and Australia could offer a glimpse at UV’s possible impact on the spread of COVID-19 around the world.

As of Tuesday, Iceland has among the world's highest rates of confirmed coronavirus cases per capita at 0.177 percent, with 648 cases from a population of 364,260. Australia’s confirmed infected rate is just 0.0083 percent – 2,044 cases from a population of 25.4 million people.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

??????????

May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures".

By Dan Wilson

Can you pull that?

So far only from here and I have no "Sign In"


https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GALE%7CA20620070&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=0010194X&p=AONE&sw=w

quote:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker
Updated: 3/23/2020, 6:59 PM CDT
Copied
Interactive tracker offers users map and graphical displays for COVID-19 disease global spread, including total confirmed, active, recovered cases, and deaths.

quote:

With the onset of COVID-19,1 and the strong possibility of large percentages of the U.S. population being admitted to the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU), the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) has updated its statistics on critical care resources available in the United States.2 Our goal is to provide information regarding the resources both available and needed to care for a potentially overwhelming number of critically ill patients, many of whom may require mechanical ventilation.1 In this report, we address the most current data and estimates on the number of acute care, ICU, and step-down (eg, observation, progressive) beds; ICU occupancy rates; mechanical ventilators; and staffing. We also seek to provide context to the data.

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ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

But perhaps Niall should stick to history, and not dabble in mathematics.

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Professor Niall Ferguson from Imperial College in London agrees that one death corresponds to at least 1,000 cases in the community, assuming a death rate of about 1 per cent.

In above link.

Ahhh, the joys of choosing soundbites out of context. I'm pretty sure basic maths is in his sphere of knowledge.

The nicest thing I've Heard said about Niall was by Sir Antony Beevor (during questions at the end of a a talk) - something to the effect -

'I prefer to leave the counter factuals to Niall Ferguson and Andrew Roberts"

Assuming I'm not being whooshed by a joke here - I think this is a sub-editing error. There is a Neil Ferguson at Imperial College who is an epidemiologist who I assume is the person who is actually being quoted.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/people/neil.ferguson

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quote:

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

The nicest thing I've Heard said about Niall was by Sir Antony Beevor (during questions at the end of a a talk) - something to the effect -

'I prefer to leave the counter factuals to Niall Ferguson and Andrew Roberts"

Maybe Antony Beevor has trouble with historians who try to view the legacy of the British Empire without Union Jack tinted glasses on?

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

US map, plus showing some in Canada land, Mexico land, the caribean islands and the northern part of South America.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/covid-19

edit: dang picture is not showing up, but it is in the link.

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ORIGINAL: Kull

As hot spots are materializing in the US, it's probably a good idea to ascertain availability of hospital beds and ICU capability per region and state. Accordingly here's an up-to-date article from the Society of Critical Care Medicine which specifically focuses on resource availability for Covid-19:

quote:

With the onset of COVID-19,1 and the strong possibility of large percentages of the U.S. population being admitted to the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU), the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM) has updated its statistics on critical care resources available in the United States.2 Our goal is to provide information regarding the resources both available and needed to care for a potentially overwhelming number of critically ill patients, many of whom may require mechanical ventilation.1 In this report, we address the most current data and estimates on the number of acute care, ICU, and step-down (eg, observation, progressive) beds; ICU occupancy rates; mechanical ventilators; and staffing. We also seek to provide context to the data.

It's a pretty comprehensive report, so I'd encourage those interested to read it. There's a lot of disinformation being promulgated by the media, and this helps cut through that.

In addition, the American Hospital Association has a map and a graph showing the count and location of hospitals throughout the country (see #1 on the attachment). That's interesting information, but what about ICU capability? This map (behind a Washington Post paywall), indicates there's a pretty strong correlation (#2 on the attachment)

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DETROIT (AP) - Two men, one from Macomb County and one from Kent County, have died from complications due to the coronavirus, bringing the number of fatalities in Michigan to eight.

Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel announced Saturday night that a 52-year-old man with underlying health conditions died at a hospital in Clinton Township.

In Kent County, the local health department released a statement that confirmed the death of a 71-year-old man, also with underlying health conditions.

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ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) - Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison said Tuesday his office has started cracking down on price-gouging during the coronavirus outbreak.

Ellison says his office began its enforcement efforts immediately after Gov. Tim Walz's executive order banning price-gouging on essential goods during the COVID-19 peacetime emergency went into effect Saturday.

Ellison says so far, his office has received more than 300 price-gouging complaints on goods and services. Those include toilet paper, rice, cleaning products, face masks, eggs, butter and water. Ellison's office has made more than 70 visits to Minnesota retailers during the past four day to check prices and investigate complaints of price-gouging.

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Updated: March 24, 2020 10:53 AM

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers has released details of his "Safer at Home" order, which is now scheduled to take effect at 8 a.m. Wednesday and may remain in effect for a month.

The order prohibits all nonessential travel, with some exceptions. Evers said the order will remain in effect until 8 a.m. on April 24 unless he issues another order ending it earlier.

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Walz in self-quarantine

The governor found himself following the state’s advice to stay home on Monday, after learning he came into contact with a person who tested positive for COVID-19.

A member of Walz's security detail tested positive for the coronavirus Sunday night, according to a press release. The governor was in "close proximity" to the person last week and was informed of the contact Monday morning.

Walz told reporters Monday that he’s asymptomatic and has not been tested for the virus. His self-quarantine is expected to end Monday, April 6.
.
.
.
The governor isn’t the only statewide elected official who announced a personal impact of the coronavirus on Monday.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan said that her brother Ron died after contracting COVID-19 in Tennessee. He was diagnosed with cancer several weeks ago and had a compromised immune system.

“To many, he’ll be a statistic: Tennessee’s second COVID-related death. But to me, I’ll remember a loving, older brother, uncle, father, and husband,” Flanagan wrote in an Instagram post Sunday.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar also announced Monday morning that her husband, John Bessler, tested positive for the coronavirus. The senator said she was outside the 14-day exposure period and would not enter self-quarantine.

She added that Bessler became sick in Washington and is currently hospitalized with pneumonia and on oxygen. He was not a ventilator at the time.

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Back in Oz, we now have 8 deaths and just over 2000 cases.

Interestingly, the majority of the increase is straight from a series of returning cruise ships including the Ruby Princess.

The cruise ship passengers might be easiest to trace, but airlines would have brought the virus into every city with an international airport already.

Canada's first cases were all airline travel related. Now we are seeing a surge because our "snowbirds" are returning from vacations and lengthy stays in other countries (up to 5.5 months) to avoid our winter. Many are arriving by car from the US - they are allowed to cross the border to return home.

Over a million have returned in the last two weeks and all are expected to self-isolate on arrival at home. But greater testing and greater awareness of symptoms has resulted in a spike of positive tests, mostly from these snowbirds. So if they got the virus in the US or some other country, the cases there are being exported! Much of the timing of these people returning is driven by the assurance of health care here vs. the fear that other countries health care systems reaching or exceeding capacity.

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ORIGINAL: Kull

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Did they life their NPIs though? My thinking was along the lines of the "Wuhan spike" with different reporting / diagnostic case definitions / laboratory testing anomalies. Any Danes here that can shed further light on this?

See chart below which confirms the curve (with daily numbers). There's a compilation of Denmark-specific Covid-19 news articles here, but my cursory scan didn't find a reason for the early spike-then-drop. By no means a detailed look, so there probably is an explanation in there somewhere.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Ok. This just blew my mind. Not sure what to make of it and if there is anything to it or not.

It doesn't seem plausible in any of the other major early centers of the disease; Wuhan, but especially Italy, as the population shouldn't support this theory. On the other hand there are so many reported asymptomatic cases and the Diamond Princess is still a conundrum. Thoughts?

I'll post some details since there is a paywall.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?sharetype=blocked

The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta. 

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

What infection rates in Iceland and Australia may reveal about how COVID-19 could spread in the US

quote:

Research into the possible effects of heat, humidity and population density on the transmission of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has led some to consider that warmer weather during spring and summer in the Northern Hemisphere may lead to a decrease in the number of cases of COVID-19, the illness it causes, but there is a range of opinions on the matter in the infectious disease community.

The effect of the sun’s ultraviolet rays may play a larger role than even heat and humidity. As the probe into what role weather may play in the spread of COVID-19 continues, a data analysis may provide some new clues for what to expect in the United States as summer approaches. In particular, a look at the per capita infection rates of Iceland and Australia could offer a glimpse at UV’s possible impact on the spread of COVID-19 around the world.

As of Tuesday, Iceland has among the world's highest rates of confirmed coronavirus cases per capita at 0.177 percent, with 648 cases from a population of 364,260. Australia’s confirmed infected rate is just 0.0083 percent – 2,044 cases from a population of 25.4 million people.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/what-infection-rates-in-iceland-and-australia-may-reveal-about-how-covid-19-could-spread-in-the-us/707057

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Back in Oz, we now have 8 deaths and just over 2000 cases.

Interestingly, the majority of the increase is straight from a series of returning cruise ships including the Ruby Princess.

The cruise ship passengers might be easiest to trace, but airlines would have brought the virus into every city with an international airport already.

Canada's first cases were all airline travel related. Now we are seeing a surge because our "snowbirds" are returning from vacations and lengthy stays in other countries (up to 5.5 months) to avoid our winter. Many are arriving by car from the US - they are allowed to cross the border to return home.

Over a million have returned in the last two weeks and all are expected to self-isolate on arrival at home. But greater testing and greater awareness of symptoms has resulted in a spike of positive tests, mostly from these snowbirds. So if they got the virus in the US or some other country, the cases there are being exported! Much of the timing of these people returning is driven by the assurance of health care here vs. the fear that other countries health care systems reaching or exceeding capacity.

BB, I remain skeptical about the reported figures on covid-19.

First, I think way more people have had it than have tested positive. For all we know it could be 3-4 times the number.

Secondly, as a corollary the serious illness/death rate is being overstated, and is a much lower percentage, and in absolute terms, the flu is concurrently causing more deaths.

Thirdly, the vast majority of the hundreds and thousands of people world wide who have/had it and aren't counted, had no symptoms, or symptoms so mild that they didn't even notice it.

The current mass lock-downs are very arguably an over-reaction - and are causing economic damage that is unnecessary.

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Did a cruise ship arrive back from the Mediterranean?

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ORIGINAL: Kull

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Did a cruise ship arrive back from the Mediterranean?

No (although that was my first thought, too)