Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

I use data diffused everyday at 1800 by Protezione Civile, the state's entity managing the emergency. I do not know where worldometers takes its data, but I strongly believe that the ones given by Protezione Civile are the correct ones.

I think also Kull had the same problem of worldometer giving other data for yesterday.


Given the situation, I suppose Protezione Civile's data are for sure more accurate than the ones given by anyone else.

quote:

5210 new cases and 683 new deaths in Italy. 4th day in a row with daily new cases below the 6557 peak reached on March 21. Protezione Civile chief Borrelli, the person usually holding the daily press conference, is at home with a fever, while the former chief Bertolaso is now hospitalized in Milan after having tested positive to the virus

During the press conference, Protezione Civile officials were asked to clarify what the "change in active cases" ("incremento delle persone attualmente positive") really represents, after our website had raised the issue of Italian media reporting the change in active cases (a lower number) rather than the change in total cases (a higher number), incorrectly representing it as "newly infected" when, in fact, it represents the "change in active cases"

Newly infected, meaning the number of people who have tested positive to the virus in the last day, corresponds to the number Worldometer has always reported, which is the change in total cases in accordance with the international standards set by the WHO and followed by all countries. An important figure which can be compared to newly recovered, as we do in our charts.

The change in active cases (what most Italian media incorrectly label as "newly infected") is the result of the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries).

Sharing the goal of providing the correct interpretation of data, we are pleased to notice that a few days ago, one of the leading Italian newspapers, Corriere della Sera, began reporting the figures correctly

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ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

I dunno, Cap. In an endemic virus pattern, serology is only good for decisions at the moment the sample is pulled from your arm. At any point after that (including a presumptive delay while it's tested) a "negative" person can become exposed, rendering the sample invalid for predictive or treatment value prospectively. And what surety that a seropositive person is 'subclinical' versus 'resolved and no longer infectious'? Still too many questions about the predictive value of seropositivity, let alone its value in subjecting people to additional scrutiny.

I read Rick Atkinson's wonderful, "The British are Coming" last year-an excellent review the first couple years of the Revolutionary War. When the siege of Boston was broken, Washington's first troops to enter the city were handpicked smallpox survivors. The colonists were concerned that the Brits had pox-trapped the city, so the logical front-line troops were those that had endured the ravages of smallpox. Their scars (and presumptive protection from the disease) made them highly prized for this role.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

quote:

“At this point, the mutation rate of the virus would suggest that the vaccine developed for SARS-CoV-2 would be a single vaccine, rather than a new vaccine every year like the flu vaccine.” Rather, a potential coronavirus vaccine would act more like those for the measles or chicken pox, in which one shot grants immunity for a substantial amount of time.

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more

Gov. Tim Walz is asking Minnesotans to stay at home unless absolutely necessary in order to slow the spread of coronavirus in the state.

The “stay-at-home” order is his most dramatic executive action yet, asking Minnesotans to partake in a form of extreme social distancing as the virus spreads to a growing number of people in the state and hospitals prepare for more patients.

But it’s far from a total lockdown of the state.

What does Walz’s new order say?

On Wednesday, the governor issued an executive order that asks Minnesotans to stay home except for essential needs and services starting at 11:59 p.m. on Friday, March 27 until at least April 10, with more limited social distancing plans to follow with a focus on people at greatest risk of COVID-19 complications — mostly people who are elderly or have underlying health conditions.

What are considered essential needs and services?

The order still allows people to leave the house for things like groceries, gas, emergency medical services or supplies, caring for family members, friends or pets and moving between emergency shelters for those who are homeless.

And people who work in “critical sectors” are exempt from the stay at home order, including health care workers, emergency responders, law enforcement, shelters, child care facilities, food production, utilities, the news media and critical manufacturing. Other workplaces are asked to shift to a telework and work from home model under the order.

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Due to a nationwide shortage of COVID-19 testing supplies, MDH announced March 17 that the state's public health lab would restrict testing to health care workers, hospitalized patients and residents of long-term care facilities. As a result, people experiencing milder symptoms will not be tested, and people with respiratory illnesses are asked to remain isolated for at least seven days after symptoms first appear or at least three days after being fever-free, whichever is longer. The state will rely on ongoing influenza surveillance as a proxy for whether the coronavirus is spreading, MDH officials said.

The number of tests conducted reflect those reported by MDH. On March 25, the department reported a large number of tests completed by other laboratories, such as the Mayo Clinic. Previously, MDH did not consistently include outside tests in its totals.

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“Today in the modern world of transportation where millions of people are on airplanes flying on any one moment flying around the world its not at all a surprise it would show up in potentially many different countries,” Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the center for infectious disease research and policy at the University of Minnesota, said.

Osterholm says, if Coronavirus is anything like its relatives SARS and MERS, “we can expect to see ongoing transmission by humans to humans and that’s what really concerns us.”

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull
3) They are working to review and approve a fingertip pri-ck test for Covid-19 antibodies, which would vastly improve the ability to identify those who have had the virus. Such a kit will be deployed in the UK "in days".

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Covid 19 genotype maps to bat and pangolin hybridization of the species-specific Cornavirus viral genome.

Somebody in Wuhan thought it was a good idea to eat one of these.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull
3) They are working to review and approve a fingertip pri-ck test for Covid-19 antibodies, which would vastly improve the ability to identify those who have had the virus. Such a kit will be deployed in the UK "in days".

I guess that's my point. Little is known about typical 'clearance' of the virus relative to production of detectable antibodies. Is it possible that someone that is seropositive has a titer that is insufficient to protect against future challenges? Yes. Is it possible that someone that thinks they're antibody negative has only started with the disease and therefore hasn't had time to produce a detectable serologic response (this takes several days)? Yes. Is it possible that someone that is antibody positive could be shedding virus? Yes.

*Maybe* paired samples-RT-PCR and simultaneous antibody screening could provide a more useful picture. Antibody positive and simultaneous virus negative is a greater margin of safety IMO.

We run into this from time to time with animal disease outbreaks. Serosurveillance is nice for planned, routine screens of a population for diseases that one should not find antibody (or to quality check vaccination strategies when a titer *is* expected). But there is an inherent delay between the introduction of a pathogen (e.g., avian influenza) and production of detectable antibodies. Depending on the test and the disease, this could be 48-96 hours or more.

Performing antibody serosurveillance as a quasi-realtime diagnostic tool in a rapidly evolving disease outbreak is usually selecting the wrong tool for the task. Unless there was considerable (2+ days) delay in getting antigen testing results back, there are better choices.

Rapid antigen (read: virus) detection kits can be used as a proxy for virus isolation or PCR in a pinch. But antibody detection tests require too many assumptions about temporal exposure to be proactive in a timely fashion, IMO.

Lots of folks / companies trying to dump test kits or treatments or cures on a panicked public. I question the rationale of this antibody detection implementation without deeper thought about whether some better choices may exist.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Covid 19 genotype maps to bat and pangolin hybridization of the species-specific Cornavirus viral genome.

Somebody in Wuhan thought it was a good idea to eat one of these.

Maybe they will finally get serious on banning the trade of these cuddly creatures.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Yummy! Maybe about 6 hrs of smoking after a nice rub!

Thanks Wuhan!

Now, in fairness, it might be that a pangolin shat on a fruit that that bat ate and then someone in Wuhan had some delicious bat cioppino but I favor the former.

This is interactive.

click on the vertical red dots in the middle to view the Covid-19 phylogeny

https://nextstrain.org/groups/blab/sars-like-cov?c=host

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Covid 19 genotype maps to bat and pangolin hybridization of the species-specific Cornavirus viral genome.

Somebody in Wuhan thought it was a good idea to eat one of these.

Maybe they will finally get serious on banning the trade of these cuddly creatures.

Yes! Hop up here scaly-boy! That's a good pangolin!

You see something like that in Louisiana or East Texas you TRY to run over it. Am I right? You certainly don't EAT it

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You see something like that in Louisiana or East Texas you TRY to run over it. Am I right? You certainly don't EAT it

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.

The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.

I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The first human-derived isolate is from Dec 3, 2019

This does NOT mean the first human infection was from that date. It took some time for the infection to amplify and come to the attention of doctors in Wuhan. It takes 1 or 2 or 3 doctors talking to each other over lunch. "Man that guy could not take a joke! His O2 sat is 95% and then 8 hrs later he is dead!"

I know it sounds cynical but that's how it is....then the second guys says...."****, that sounds like SARS!" because he is a bit older and remembers SARS...and then they all leave their food on the table.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The first human-derived isolate is from Dec 3, 2019

This does NOT mean the first human infection was from that date. It took some time for the infection to amplify and come to the attention of doctors in Wuhan. It takes 1 or 2 or 3 doctors talking to each other over lunch. "Man that guy could not take a joke! His O2 sat is 95% and then 8 hrs later he is dead!"

I know it sounds cynical but that's how it is....then the second guys says...."****, that sounds like SARS!" because he is a bit older and remembers SARS...and then they all leave their food on the table.