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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 7:27:05 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Social Barometer:

Are the Californian Koreans on their rooftops?

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Post #: 2011
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 7:46:19 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Brazil's Bolsonaro again says Coronavirus concern overblown
March 24, 2020

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/brazils-bolsonaro-coronavirus-concern-overblown-69782788


"President Jair Bolsonaro on Tuesday stuck with his contention that concern about the new coronavirus is overblown, and accused Brazilian media of trying to stoke nationwide hysteria.

Bolsonaro said in a nationally televised address that the media had seized on the death toll in Italy, which he said is suffering so severely because of its elderly population and colder climate.

“The virus arrived, we are confronting it, and it will pass shortly. Our lives have to continue, jobs should be maintained,” the president said."

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Post #: 2012
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 7:51:17 PM   
MakeeLearn


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'DEVASTATING' First US child to ‘die from Coronavirus’ was only diagnosed after his death as he ‘did not meet COVID-19 test criteria’
Mar 25 2020

https://www.the-sun.com/news/585672/first-us-minor-not-meet-criteria-coronavirus-test/


"THE FIRST US child to succumb to Coronavirus was only diagnosed with the deadly infection after he died as he did not “meet the criteria” for the test, the Sun has learned.

Lancaster, Los Angeles, Mayor Rex Parris said Wednesday that the teenager "did not meet the criteria for public health to OK a test and the only time he was tested was after he died.""


"He then went to Antelope Valley Hospital which is where he ultimately died of septic shock, before he was diagnosed with Coronavirus post-mortem."

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Post #: 2013
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 7:51:53 PM   
traskott


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From: Valladolid, Spain
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Olders one are going to die by droves, guys. Period. No enough medical staff to support the massive arrival of infected people, and medics and doctors ( and policemans ) are getting infected at a very high rate.

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Post #: 2014
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 7:55:25 PM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

I use data diffused everyday at 1800 by Protezione Civile, the state's entity managing the emergency. I do not know where worldometers takes its data, but I strongly believe that the ones given by Protezione Civile are the correct ones.

I think also Kull had the same problem of worldometer giving other data for yesterday.


Given the situation, I suppose Protezione Civile's data are for sure more accurate than the ones given by anyone else.


Worldometers has the same source you do. The problem is the way Protezione Civil has been defining "new cases", which is different from the WHO standard followed by every other country in the world:

quote:

5210 new cases and 683 new deaths in Italy. 4th day in a row with daily new cases below the 6557 peak reached on March 21. Protezione Civile chief Borrelli, the person usually holding the daily press conference, is at home with a fever, while the former chief Bertolaso is now hospitalized in Milan after having tested positive to the virus

During the press conference, Protezione Civile officials were asked to clarify what the "change in active cases" ("incremento delle persone attualmente positive") really represents, after our website had raised the issue of Italian media reporting the change in active cases (a lower number) rather than the change in total cases (a higher number), incorrectly representing it as "newly infected" when, in fact, it represents the "change in active cases"

Newly infected, meaning the number of people who have tested positive to the virus in the last day, corresponds to the number Worldometer has always reported, which is the change in total cases in accordance with the international standards set by the WHO and followed by all countries. An important figure which can be compared to newly recovered, as we do in our charts.

The change in active cases (what most Italian media incorrectly label as "newly infected") is the result of the following formula: (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries).

Sharing the goal of providing the correct interpretation of data, we are pleased to notice that a few days ago, one of the leading Italian newspapers, Corriere della Sera, began reporting the figures correctly


To repeat, "New Cases" is most definitely NOT determined by this formula: New Cases = (newly infected) - (new deaths) - (new recoveries)

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Post #: 2015
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 9:03:54 PM   
alanschu

 

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EDIT: LMAO make sure to refresh before responding to something lest the post immediately above yours from hours ago say the exact same thing!

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/25/2020 9:04:46 PM >

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Post #: 2016
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 9:10:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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It's encouraging to see the "flattening of the curve" for new cases in Italy. Today's number, which isn't shown on this chart, is essentially the same as yesterday's. A good trend now.**

**assuming the reporting is accurate




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Post #: 2017
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 9:55:41 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
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30 days to reach a maximum. Ouch..that is painful.

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Post #: 2018
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 10:16:52 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.


The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.



I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.


I dunno, Cap. In an endemic virus pattern, serology is only good for decisions at the moment the sample is pulled from your arm. At any point after that (including a presumptive delay while it's tested) a "negative" person can become exposed, rendering the sample invalid for predictive or treatment value prospectively. And what surety that a seropositive person is 'subclinical' versus 'resolved and no longer infectious'? Still too many questions about the predictive value of seropositivity, let alone its value in subjecting people to additional scrutiny.

I read Rick Atkinson's wonderful, "The British are Coming" last year-an excellent review the first couple years of the Revolutionary War. When the siege of Boston was broken, Washington's first troops to enter the city were handpicked smallpox survivors. The colonists were concerned that the Brits had pox-trapped the city, so the logical front-line troops were those that had endured the ravages of smallpox. Their scars (and presumptive protection from the disease) made them highly prized for this role.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 3/25/2020 10:18:55 PM >


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Post #: 2019
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/25/2020 10:53:06 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.


The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.



I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.


I dunno, Cap. In an endemic virus pattern, serology is only good for decisions at the moment the sample is pulled from your arm. At any point after that (including a presumptive delay while it's tested) a "negative" person can become exposed, rendering the sample invalid for predictive or treatment value prospectively. And what surety that a seropositive person is 'subclinical' versus 'resolved and no longer infectious'? Still too many questions about the predictive value of seropositivity, let alone its value in subjecting people to additional scrutiny.

I read Rick Atkinson's wonderful, "The British are Coming" last year-an excellent review the first couple years of the Revolutionary War. When the siege of Boston was broken, Washington's first troops to enter the city were handpicked smallpox survivors. The colonists were concerned that the Brits had pox-trapped the city, so the logical front-line troops were those that had endured the ravages of smallpox. Their scars (and presumptive protection from the disease) made them highly prized for this role.


From what I read (I no longer have the book but it covered the year 1776) smallpox had been going around in Boston during the siege.

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Post #: 2020
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 12:00:45 AM   
Ian R

 

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.


The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.



I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.


Haven't testing numbers also exponentially ramped up in at least some countries recently? Perhaps there is a correlation? I am not sure you can make the deduction that C19 is only just entering the population from that in isolation. I agree that there are quite probably a significant number of subclinical cases, including some recovered cases, that are unknown/unrecorded.

In any event, the sooner the tests that Obvert mentions are able to clear recovered people back to work so as to stave off economic disaster, the better.




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Post #: 2021
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 12:25:38 AM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline
Dr. Birx (White House corona virus coordinator) made a few interesting comments the other day:

1) They will soon deploy a "self-test" swab kit for use at the drive through testing facilities (and presumably other places) which individuals will use to take their own swabs. The benefit is that it does not require a person in full PPE to contact the individual, so they don't use up a full set of PPE with every swab. This is not a "home test".

2) The types of mutation (and rate) for the coronavirus make it unlike the flu, in that once a vaccine is developed it should work on all varieties of SARS-CoV-2:

quote:

“At this point, the mutation rate of the virus would suggest that the vaccine developed for SARS-CoV-2 would be a single vaccine, rather than a new vaccine every year like the flu vaccine.” Rather, a potential coronavirus vaccine would act more like those for the measles or chicken pox, in which one shot grants immunity for a substantial amount of time.


3) They are working to review and approve a fingertip pri-ck test for Covid-19 antibodies, which would vastly improve the ability to identify those who have had the virus. Such a kit will be deployed in the UK "in days".

(To avoid politicization, all links are to other sources)

< Message edited by Kull -- 3/26/2020 12:26:04 AM >


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Post #: 2022
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 12:27:05 AM   
RangerJoe


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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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What you need to know about Minnesota's 'stay-at-home' order
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz issued an order for Minnesotans to stay at home unless absolutely necessary.

quote:


more

Gov. Tim Walz is asking Minnesotans to stay at home unless absolutely necessary in order to slow the spread of coronavirus in the state.

The “stay-at-home” order is his most dramatic executive action yet, asking Minnesotans to partake in a form of extreme social distancing as the virus spreads to a growing number of people in the state and hospitals prepare for more patients.

But it’s far from a total lockdown of the state.

What does Walz’s new order say?

On Wednesday, the governor issued an executive order that asks Minnesotans to stay home except for essential needs and services starting at 11:59 p.m. on Friday, March 27 until at least April 10, with more limited social distancing plans to follow with a focus on people at greatest risk of COVID-19 complications — mostly people who are elderly or have underlying health conditions.

What are considered essential needs and services?

The order still allows people to leave the house for things like groceries, gas, emergency medical services or supplies, caring for family members, friends or pets and moving between emergency shelters for those who are homeless.

And people who work in “critical sectors” are exempt from the stay at home order, including health care workers, emergency responders, law enforcement, shelters, child care facilities, food production, utilities, the news media and critical manufacturing. Other workplaces are asked to shift to a telework and work from home model under the order.


https://www.startribune.com/stay-at-home-order-minnesota-what-you-need-to-know-twin-cities-minneapolis-walz/568484941/

quote:

Due to a nationwide shortage of COVID-19 testing supplies, MDH announced March 17 that the state's public health lab would restrict testing to health care workers, hospitalized patients and residents of long-term care facilities. As a result, people experiencing milder symptoms will not be tested, and people with respiratory illnesses are asked to remain isolated for at least seven days after symptoms first appear or at least three days after being fever-free, whichever is longer. The state will rely on ongoing influenza surveillance as a proxy for whether the coronavirus is spreading, MDH officials said.

The number of tests conducted reflect those reported by MDH. On March 25, the department reported a large number of tests completed by other laboratories, such as the Mayo Clinic. Previously, MDH did not consistently include outside tests in its totals.


https://www.startribune.com/coronavirus-covid-19-minnesota-tracker-map-county-data/568712601/

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Post #: 2023
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 12:30:04 AM   
RangerJoe


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From the wayback machine:

Minnesota Disease Expert Says Coronavirus Spread Unlikely But Would Have High Consequence

quote:

“Today in the modern world of transportation where millions of people are on airplanes flying on any one moment flying around the world its not at all a surprise it would show up in potentially many different countries,” Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the center for infectious disease research and policy at the University of Minnesota, said.

Osterholm says, if Coronavirus is anything like its relatives SARS and MERS, “we can expect to see ongoing transmission by humans to humans and that’s what really concerns us.”


_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


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Post #: 2024
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 12:35:48 AM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
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Large Chinese study. Time from exposure to symptoms about 2 to 11 days with a mean of 5 days and 95% will become symptomatic by 11 days (this is where they got the 14 day quarantine figure)

Then there is another lag until patients develop more severe illness.

Amazing and utterly convincing map of the transmission of Covid-19 based on the amazing 111 genotypes identified so far. I saw this same damn thing in "Contagion" in December on Netflix. It is absolutely prescient.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

(in reply to Ian R)
Post #: 2025
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 12:49:23 AM   
Cap Mandrake


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From: Southern California
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The first human-derived isolate is from Dec 3, 2019

This does NOT mean the first human infection was from that date. It took some time for the infection to amplify and come to the attention of doctors in Wuhan. It takes 1 or 2 or 3 doctors talking to each other over lunch. "Man that guy could not take a joke! His O2 sat is 95% and then 8 hrs later he is dead!"

I know it sounds cynical but that's how it is....then the second guys says...."****, that sounds like SARS!" because he is a bit older and remembers SARS...and then they all leave their food on the table.

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Post #: 2026
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 12:57:46 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull
3) They are working to review and approve a fingertip pri-ck test for Covid-19 antibodies, which would vastly improve the ability to identify those who have had the virus. Such a kit will be deployed in the UK "in days".


I guess that's my point. Little is known about typical 'clearance' of the virus relative to production of detectable antibodies. Is it possible that someone that is seropositive has a titer that is insufficient to protect against future challenges? Yes. Is it possible that someone that thinks they're antibody negative has only started with the disease and therefore hasn't had time to produce a detectable serologic response (this takes several days)? Yes. Is it possible that someone that is antibody positive could be shedding virus? Yes.

*Maybe* paired samples-RT-PCR and simultaneous antibody screening could provide a more useful picture. Antibody positive and simultaneous virus negative is a greater margin of safety IMO.

We run into this from time to time with animal disease outbreaks. Serosurveillance is nice for planned, routine screens of a population for diseases that one should not find antibody (or to quality check vaccination strategies when a titer *is* expected). But there is an inherent delay between the introduction of a pathogen (e.g., avian influenza) and production of detectable antibodies. Depending on the test and the disease, this could be 48-96 hours or more.

Performing antibody serosurveillance as a quasi-realtime diagnostic tool in a rapidly evolving disease outbreak is usually selecting the wrong tool for the task. Unless there was considerable (2+ days) delay in getting antigen testing results back, there are better choices.

Rapid antigen (read: virus) detection kits can be used as a proxy for virus isolation or PCR in a pinch. But antibody detection tests require too many assumptions about temporal exposure to be proactive in a timely fashion, IMO.

Lots of folks / companies trying to dump test kits or treatments or cures on a panicked public. I question the rationale of this antibody detection implementation without deeper thought about whether some better choices may exist.

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Post #: 2027
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:11:11 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
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From: Southern California
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The Covid 19 genotype maps to bat and pangolin hybridization of the species-specific Cornavirus viral genome.

Somebody in Wuhan thought it was a good idea to eat one of these.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 2028
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:18:06 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
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From: Southern California
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Yummy! Maybe about 6 hrs of smoking after a nice rub!

Thanks Wuhan!

Now, in fairness, it might be that a pangolin shat on a fruit that that bat ate and then someone in Wuhan had some delicious bat cioppino but I favor the former.

This is interactive.

click on the vertical red dots in the middle to view the Covid-19 phylogeny

https://nextstrain.org/groups/blab/sars-like-cov?c=host

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2029
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:18:12 AM   
MakeeLearn


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EVERYTHING in China is on the menu.

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Post #: 2030
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:19:35 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Covid 19 genotype maps to bat and pangolin hybridization of the species-specific Cornavirus viral genome.

Somebody in Wuhan thought it was a good idea to eat one of these.





Maybe they will finally get serious on banning the trade of these cuddly creatures.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2031
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:19:56 AM   
Kull


Posts: 2625
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull
3) They are working to review and approve a fingertip pri-ck test for Covid-19 antibodies, which would vastly improve the ability to identify those who have had the virus. Such a kit will be deployed in the UK "in days".


I guess that's my point. Little is known about typical 'clearance' of the virus relative to production of detectable antibodies. Is it possible that someone that is seropositive has a titer that is insufficient to protect against future challenges? Yes. Is it possible that someone that thinks they're antibody negative has only started with the disease and therefore hasn't had time to produce a detectable serologic response (this takes several days)? Yes. Is it possible that someone that is antibody positive could be shedding virus? Yes.

*Maybe* paired samples-RT-PCR and simultaneous antibody screening could provide a more useful picture. Antibody positive and simultaneous virus negative is a greater margin of safety IMO.

We run into this from time to time with animal disease outbreaks. Serosurveillance is nice for planned, routine screens of a population for diseases that one should not find antibody (or to quality check vaccination strategies when a titer *is* expected). But there is an inherent delay between the introduction of a pathogen (e.g., avian influenza) and production of detectable antibodies. Depending on the test and the disease, this could be 48-96 hours or more.

Performing antibody serosurveillance as a quasi-realtime diagnostic tool in a rapidly evolving disease outbreak is usually selecting the wrong tool for the task. Unless there was considerable (2+ days) delay in getting antigen testing results back, there are better choices.

Rapid antigen (read: virus) detection kits can be used as a proxy for virus isolation or PCR in a pinch. But antibody detection tests require too many assumptions about temporal exposure to be proactive in a timely fashion, IMO.

Lots of folks / companies trying to dump test kits or treatments or cures on a panicked public. I question the rationale of this antibody detection implementation without deeper thought about whether some better choices may exist.


My impression was the CDC is not looking at home use (although undoubtedly that will happen too), but using these as part of a contact tracing regimen, along with randomized regional checks to ascertain how much infection really has occurred (i.e. all the asymptomatic/minor symptom folks who currently aren't on the radar). Also, apparently their current system requires drawing venous blood, which once again uses one set of PPE for every test, and requires a lab to run the test.

_____________________________


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Post #: 2032
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:25:57 AM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Covid 19 genotype maps to bat and pangolin hybridization of the species-specific Cornavirus viral genome.

Somebody in Wuhan thought it was a good idea to eat one of these.





Maybe they will finally get serious on banning the trade of these cuddly creatures.


Yes! Hop up here scaly-boy! That's a good pangolin!

You see something like that in Louisiana or East Texas you TRY to run over it. Am I right? You certainly don't EAT it

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 2033
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:31:20 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Yummy! Maybe about 6 hrs of smoking after a nice rub!

Thanks Wuhan!

Now, in fairness, it might be that a pangolin shat on a fruit that that bat ate and then someone in Wuhan had some delicious bat cioppino but I favor the former.

This is interactive.

click on the vertical red dots in the middle to view the Covid-19 phylogeny

https://nextstrain.org/groups/blab/sars-like-cov?c=host



What's a little Transfer of RNA among friends.

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(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2034
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:58:04 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The Covid 19 genotype maps to bat and pangolin hybridization of the species-specific Cornavirus viral genome.

Somebody in Wuhan thought it was a good idea to eat one of these.





Maybe they will finally get serious on banning the trade of these cuddly creatures.


Yes! Hop up here scaly-boy! That's a good pangolin!

You see something like that in Louisiana or East Texas you TRY to run over it. Am I right? You certainly don't EAT it


Some people eat them. But they can carry the bacteria for Hansen's disease:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/how-armadillos-can-spread-leprosy-180954440/

https://www.cdc.gov/leprosy/transmission/index.html

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(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2035
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:19:19 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

You see something like that in Louisiana or East Texas you TRY to run over it. Am I right? You certainly don't EAT it



No FFS! They don't need help gittin' run over. They kind of do it by themselves. Plus, who wants all that gristle and goop on your (truck) front grill.

Talking with some of the USDA folks about the prevalence of Brucellosis in feral hogs around these here parts. About 50%. 50%? That's shoot 'em and leave 'em numbers, not eatin' numbers.

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(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2036
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:14:14 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

Interesting sounding article in the LA times, but unfortunately behind a paywall, if anyone has access could they post a short summary.

What is really needed is a test that tells you if you already had it and recovered without even noticing.


The UK just bought 3.5 million of those. Anti-body tests. They're going to try to start the testing by the end of the week, according to the Health minister.

The whole idea is trying to see who has had to let those NHS workers and other frontline personnel deal with the most difficult areas, where they're at risk. The larger goal is to see how much herd-immunity has been achieved as there are now some odd outlying studies (like he one I linked from Oxford yesterday) that buck the trend of saying this is just beginning. Some think it's been moving around for a good while undetected as it was among young healthy populations.

EDIT: just listened to the live press conference on this. First go to NHS and critical workers. Then probably other priority personnel. Eventually it'll run out to the public and then will become part of a study to determine how many have had it.

Also said trying to ramp up basic testing still. At 97k as of now.



I think you can deduce from the ramping up of cases in country after country it is just entering the population but a study to look at the prevalence of antibody levels would be very useful. It would tell you about subclinical cases, which are likely substantial.

For example, in the Seattle-area nursing home, it was discovered after the seniors began falling like flies that HALF THE STAFF were already infected and the great majority were still working.

Also, a single Connecticut birthday party gave rise to FIFTY infected individuals, with quite a few just having mild disease. Whoever made the bean dip should have washed their hands better.

TV News tonight said that a Biotech company in Colorado has offered to do 100% blood sample antibody tests on the residents of the county it is in. County officials have agreed and as soon as it can be arranged, they will do the tests (door-to-door presumably) and another set 14 days later. As Chickenboy pointed out, it takes time to develop the antibodies and the amount of antibody will help establish a timeline for when the positive test people got the virus.

The epidemiologists are excited about being able to use the data to get a handle on the real number of cases (including the no-symptom ones). It could also show who has some immunity to the disease and can begin working in public again. This will be especially useful for medical staff. (No mask for you, antibody man!)

EDIT to add: The Biotech company is doing the tests for free. Their motivation must be to develop creds for their test and data analysis methods afterward. The test is said to be much cheaper than the ones being done to determine infection at the time of infection and results much faster to produce.

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 3/26/2020 5:30:40 AM >


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(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2037
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 5:24:49 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The first human-derived isolate is from Dec 3, 2019

This does NOT mean the first human infection was from that date. It took some time for the infection to amplify and come to the attention of doctors in Wuhan. It takes 1 or 2 or 3 doctors talking to each other over lunch. "Man that guy could not take a joke! His O2 sat is 95% and then 8 hrs later he is dead!"

I know it sounds cynical but that's how it is....then the second guys says...."****, that sounds like SARS!" because he is a bit older and remembers SARS...and then they all leave their food on the table.

Medical humour! I was married to a nurse so I heard a bit of it ...

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No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 2038
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:17:30 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
One reason why Italy got so bad so fast.

https://sports.yahoo.com/italian-mayor-health-officials-link-champions-league-game-to-coronavirus-outbreak-a-biological-bomb-224218347.html

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(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 2039
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 7:22:18 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The first human-derived isolate is from Dec 3, 2019

This does NOT mean the first human infection was from that date. It took some time for the infection to amplify and come to the attention of doctors in Wuhan. It takes 1 or 2 or 3 doctors talking to each other over lunch. "Man that guy could not take a joke! His O2 sat is 95% and then 8 hrs later he is dead!"

I know it sounds cynical but that's how it is....then the second guys says...."****, that sounds like SARS!" because he is a bit older and remembers SARS...and then they all leave their food on the table.


They traced case zero to Nov 17. The first case who presented in a hospital which they diagnosed retroactively. I remember distinctly as that is the day my wife returned from a trip to China. However a geneological study on the virus went back to mid-late-October for its origin.

This was some of what fed the hype of it being a military developed virus, as there was a military games in Wuhan in mid-October. Since also disproven.

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(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
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