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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:28:45 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The first human-derived isolate is from Dec 3, 2019

This does NOT mean the first human infection was from that date. It took some time for the infection to amplify and come to the attention of doctors in Wuhan. It takes 1 or 2 or 3 doctors talking to each other over lunch. "Man that guy could not take a joke! His O2 sat is 95% and then 8 hrs later he is dead!"

I know it sounds cynical but that's how it is....then the second guys says...."****, that sounds like SARS!" because he is a bit older and remembers SARS...and then they all leave their food on the table.


They traced case zero to Nov 17. The first case who presented in a hospital which they diagnosed retroactively. I remember distinctly as that is the day my wife returned from a trip to China. However a geneological study on the virus went back to mid-late-October for its origin.

This was some of what fed the hype of it being a military developed virus, as there was a military games in Wuhan in mid-October. Since also disproven.

As I recall reading they do not believe that person was the first infected ("patient zero"), that was simply as far back as they could find.

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Post #: 2071
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:29:53 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		Mortality is a lagging indicator and will actually change in the next months and years. Reported infections is probably the best number for predictive analysis

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Post #: 2072
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:35:15 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Wow. That sounds near apocalyptic. What about sending hospitalized patients not yet in respiratory failure to outlying hospitals (50-70 miles away..Philadelphia, Baltimore, CT) via ambulance BEFORE they need a vent?.


They will not have the ventilators either soon enough. The war for containment is lost. We barely understand the exact transmission methods and duration on surfaces. We had a few precious weeks and we didn't use them as well as we should of. That is for another time. Again, we lost the containment war. We are on to the next fight


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Post #: 2073
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:38:09 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		We've been monitoring this chart of mortality in Italy for quite awhile. It seemed to plateau a few days back, and the Italian members of this group have expressed some degree of confidence that this is the case.

If so, it also bears on related numbers and trends - the exponential increase period in Italy's deaths lasted about two weeks (roughly beginning 3/8). There should also be a correlation between onset of drastic countermeasures and the flattening of the curve. I can't remember exactly when Italy imposed those, but I think around 3/12 or 3/14?) And Italy's outbreak is fairly clumped geographically. There are concerns whether new bell curves will ensue in the other regions.

There are then interesting possible correlations between Italy and China/South Korea, including the limited geographical extent of the outbreaks, the number of days of exponential increases, the effect of drastic countermeasures (which varied in extent from country to country), etc.

For so many reasons, I'm anxious to see Italy's numbers each day (hoping always that the trend is true and not anomalous or deceiving).




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/26/2020 1:42:40 PM >

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Post #: 2074
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:39:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Mortality lags, but you can allow for the lag in the calculations/interpretations.

Pardon my layman's ignorance, but I have much more confidence in the utility and reliability of mortality numbers.


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Mortality is a lagging indicator and will actually change in the next months and years. Reported infections is probably the best number for predictive analysis


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Post #: 2075
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 1:43:53 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Be human to each other.

+1

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Post #: 2076
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:14:12 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Post #: 2077
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:19:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's South Korea's situation.

When Korea's numbers were first listed here a few weeks ago, the totals included 51 deaths and 118 recoveries. Since then 80 deaths and 4,000 recoveries. Using those two figures yields a 0.2% mortality rate.**

South Korea's daily new case numbers are down but never to zero. Curiously, the number of daily deaths has remained fairly level - fluctuating greatly from day to day but always around 3 to 8.

If a key is flattening out the curve, Korea seems to have accomplished that. Long term, will that be a benefit (I'd think so) or a detriment (a possibility, but isn't it better to deal with small numbers over time, if possible, so that the system isn't overwhelmed and labs can develop vaccines, etc.?)

**That number typically decreases over time.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/26/2020 2:22:16 PM >

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Post #: 2078
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:21:36 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Wow. That sounds near apocalyptic. What about sending hospitalized patients not yet in respiratory failure to outlying hospitals (50-70 miles away..Philadelphia, Baltimore, CT) via ambulance BEFORE they need a vent?.


They will not have the ventilators either soon enough. The war for containment is lost. We barely understand the exact transmission methods and duration on surfaces. We had a few precious weeks and we didn't use them as well as we should of. That is for another time. Again, we lost the containment war. We are on to the next fight



Right. The containment fight was lost in December in Wuhan as Chicom authorities tried to cover it up and the WHO was their willing enabler. Now we are on to the ICU bed fight.

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Post #: 2079
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:30:49 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Status: offline 		https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-everything-we-know-deadly-2019-ncov-wuhan-spread-2020-1#based-on-unesco-estimates-more-than-15-billion-students-have-had-their-education-disrupted-18

Total Cases: 463,761
0.0059% of Humanity

Deaths: 21,089
0.0003% of Humanity




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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/26/2020 2:31:53 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:33:58 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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Status: offline 		Sweet Gaia, beautiful goddess of the planet which we despoil by our mere presence, please crank up the global warming right now. About 95F in the entire Northern Hemipshere. Thanks.

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Post #: 2081
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:34:45 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Status: offline 		https://www.businessinsider.com/china-virus-everything-we-know-deadly-2019-ncov-wuhan-spread-2020-1#coronavirus-patients-with-underlying-health-problems-are-also-more-likely-to-die-than-otherwise-healthy-people-26

"The study looked at 44,000 confirmed patients in China. The data suggests that patients in their 50s had a death rate about three times as high as patients in their 40s."

"Patients with heart disease had a 10% death rate, according to the same Chinese CDC study. The death rate for patients who reported no preexisting conditions was less than 1%."

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Post #: 2082
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:52:33 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		South Korea and the Untied States found their first case on the same day. We are lagging and yet Japan and South Korea are winning their containment fight. If only we had done something with the last 3 weeks in February yet we did little. If only we had not cut the CDC office in China by 75% ......if only......but we didn't. We lost our containment fight. Other are winning their so I suspect there are things others did better than us. You can point all the finders you want at any country you want and science just laughs in your face. This is all over the world

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 3/26/2020 2:55:59 PM >

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Post #: 2083
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:54:56 PM   
Uncivil Engineer

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When Korea's numbers were first listed here a few weeks ago, the totals included 51 deaths and 118 recoveries. Since then 80 deaths and 4,000 recoveries. Using those two figures yields a 0.2% mortality rate.**




** 80/4000 = .02 or 2%, NOT 0.2%

or is this not the calculation you did?

I think it actually should be calculated 80/4080, deaths/total = .0196 or 1.96%






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Post #: 2084
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:55:50 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I guess that's my point. Little is known about typical 'clearance' of the virus relative to production of detectable antibodies. Is it possible that someone that is seropositive has a titer that is insufficient to protect against future challenges? Yes. Is it possible that someone that thinks they're antibody negative has only started with the disease and therefore hasn't had time to produce a detectable serologic response (this takes several days)? Yes. Is it possible that someone that is antibody positive could be shedding virus? Yes.

*Maybe* paired samples-RT-PCR and simultaneous antibody screening could provide a more useful picture. Antibody positive and simultaneous virus negative is a greater margin of safety IMO.

We run into this from time to time with animal disease outbreaks. Serosurveillance is nice for planned, routine screens of a population for diseases that one should not find antibody (or to quality check vaccination strategies when a titer *is* expected). But there is an inherent delay between the introduction of a pathogen (e.g., avian influenza) and production of detectable antibodies. Depending on the test and the disease, this could be 48-96 hours or more.

Performing antibody serosurveillance as a quasi-realtime diagnostic tool in a rapidly evolving disease outbreak is usually selecting the wrong tool for the task. Unless there was considerable (2+ days) delay in getting antigen testing results back, there are better choices.

Rapid antigen (read: virus) detection kits can be used as a proxy for virus isolation or PCR in a pinch. But antibody detection tests require too many assumptions about temporal exposure to be proactive in a timely fashion, IMO.

Lots of folks / companies trying to dump test kits or treatments or cures on a panicked public. I question the rationale of this antibody detection implementation without deeper thought about whether some better choices may exist.

Is this true of any antibody test? Is it a well understood percentage of results? Would such a test still be useful for determining who *very likely* has immunity?

Thanks.


Not all serologic titer profiles are the same. In animal populations with 'typical' vaccine regimens, we look for what is a consistent vaccination response relative to what they have been vaccinated with and the portional dose/strain/methodology of vaccine/vaccination. Massive titer spikes beyond the norm typically reflect either vaccination errors or 'field strain' exposure. In diseases for which we do not vaccinate, *any* serologic response is a de facto field strain exposure.

Not all serologic responses are the same to exposure to field strains. Some animals that get really sick from a virus and recover will likely have a more robust serologic response to that agent than those whose immune system barely 'recognizes' the virus as a credible threat upon initial exposure. Same if they're immunocompromised.

It would not surprise me if asymptomatic COVID-19 patients had a different serologic profile than those that got really sick and recovered. In the case of COVID-19 seroconversion, I haven't heard 'boo' about comparing and contrasting expected serologic responses to different patients' clinical presentation. And nothing more substantive on differentiating a protective anamnestic response versus reaction to initial exposure.

So, yeah-it's entirely possible (maybe even likely?) that someone could have detectable antibodies (depending on the sensitivity of the test) for COVID-19, but not be effectively immunized against future challenge.

Without further clarification, use of quickie antibody 'snap' kits that give a binary "Yes/No" answer about the presence of antibodies to COVID-19 provides, at best an unfounded confidence in their value. At worst, it's a serious misuse of manpower, scarce assets and public confidence.

Like many other diagnostic tools-making the test isn't the hard part. It's getting the right test into the hands of the right people, who can then use it to make the right decisions from the results gleaned. Using the wrong test to measure the wrong thing at the wrong time can really only lead to wrong decisions.

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Post #: 2085
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:57:01 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

Further confirmation for the high quantity of asymtomatic cases came from Iceland, with some 360 000 citizen they started random screening (will includes the source lster)
And that's explain Germany's quite low fatalities too, they capture a lot of these mild cases too.

" Currently, Germany is doing more than half a million Corona Tests per week. The Head of the Charite, Heyo Kroemer adds that Germany started testing earlier than most of the countries hit by the pandemic."

Later on, they are explaining a new research network with the Government to get a better overview of the patient's health and conditions."
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/corona-krise-virologe-liefert-erste-erklaerungen-zu-niedrigen-todeszahlen-in-deutschland-a-c8fef5d1-9c8e-4e9d-b8cc-3f85c6b00282 (in German)

Found s translation: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/com mensch/fp9v7y/germany_is_doing_more_than_500000_covid_19_tests/

AND there was also a Chinese paper which confirms this, too.

Although they warned that these cases are ticking timebombs, as 3 up to 10 % later developed symptomatics and will become potentiel spreaders. (Link to follow)



Yes, Iceland might test everyone I the doing weeks, which would give another, much larger, Diamond Princess style (almost) closed system view at this disease.

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Post #: 2086
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:58:05 PM   
Uncivil Engineer

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

South Korea and the Untied States found their first case on the same day. We are lagging and yet Japan and South Korea are winning their containment fight. If only we had done something with the last 3 weeks in February yet we did little. If only we had not cut the CDC office in China by 75% ......if only......but we didn't. We lost our containment fight. Other are winning their so I suspect there are things others did better than us. You can point all the finders you want at any country you want and science just laughs in your face. This is all over the world


But how much worse would it be if air travel from China had not been stopped on Jan 31?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 2:59:16 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

South Korea and the Untied States found their first case on the same day. We are lagging and yet Japan and South Korea are winning their containment fight. If only we had done something with the last 3 weeks in February yet we did little. If only we had not cut the CDC office in China by 75% ......if only......but we didn't. We lost our containment fight. Other are winning their so I suspect there are things others did better than us. You can point all the finders you want at any country you want and science just laughs in your face. This is all over the world


With all due respect, noone is winning the 'containment' fight. Some are winning the 'reporting' fight or the 'response' fight better than others though.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:02:17 PM   
witpqs


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Status: offline 		Thanks.

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Post #: 2089
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:04:50 PM   
JohnDillworth


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ntainment' fight. Some are winning the 'reporting' fight or the 'response' fight better than others though.

quote:

With all due respect, noone is winning the 'containment' fight. Some are winning the 'reporting' fight or the 'response' fight better than others though.


I'd swap place with Japan and South Korea right now. I'd question Russia and Irans reporting but I suspect South Korea and Japan are reporting good numbers. Japan has 10 cases per million population and the Untied States has 208 per million. Japan has a a denser population. They are doing something right

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 2090
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:06:57 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Mortality is a lagging indicator and will actually change in the next months and years. Reported infections is probably the best number for predictive analysis


It would be if testing were in the range of South Korea or Germany early on in the battle. The US is now taking the lead in testing numbers, but SK and Germany are still ahead for testing per/1,000 population.

In most places that are overwhelmed the testing ends up being only those interring hospitals and not the mild or medium but unhospitalized cases. So mortality actually can be used to find possible case numbers in the past and extrapolate current or future numbers, somewhat.

We all have heard experts, including Neil (not Niall) Fueguson here from Imperial mention that there is a likelihood of 10x published case numbers actually positive.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:07:48 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I'd swap place with Japan and South Korea right now. I'd question Russia and Irans reporting but I suspect South Korea and Japan are reporting good numbers. Japan has 10 cases per million population and the Untied States has 208 per million. Japan has a a denser population. They are doing something right


If you believe the verity of Japan's reporting, you should read the Asia Times article posted here yesterday, John. It's a very "Japanese" way of dealing with the disease that leans very heavily on the (lack of) testing and reporting. Is what they're doing 'right'? Time will tell.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 3/26/2020 3:08:02 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:10:15 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:


ntainment' fight. Some are winning the 'reporting' fight or the 'response' fight better than others though.

quote:

With all due respect, noone is winning the 'containment' fight. Some are winning the 'reporting' fight or the 'response' fight better than others though.


I'd swap place with Japan and South Korea right now. I'd question Russia and Irans reporting but I suspect South Korea and Japan are reporting good numbers. Japan has 10 cases per million population and the Untied States has 208 per million. Japan has a a denser population. They are doing something right


I quoted an article that Beefhaeart linked yesterday about Japan. They're not really doing things right, they're just not reporting the wrong as much as others. They are doing some things very well, like treating pneumonia, but enjoying the annual cherry blossom festival while getting smashed under the falling petals with 5-10 of your best mates probably didn't bode well for the next phase.

A report just came out that they're now considering locking down Tokyo after a small surge in (listed) cases. They're trying to stay open and reduce public panic, but it looks like that's starting to fail even their cultural norms.

< Message edited by obvert -- 3/26/2020 3:27:50 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:11:54 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		Chickenboy, Not sure if you can help but I understand that developing a vaccine is one thing and manufacturing a vaccine in large quantities is a whole different problem. I'm digging into this now but is entirely possible that we may have a vaccine in 12-18 months but it will take much longer to manufacture it in large quantities. O

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Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:13:40 PM   
MakeeLearn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Sweet Gaia, beautiful goddess of the planet which we despoil by our mere presence, please crank up the global warming right now. About 95F in the entire Northern Hemipshere. Thanks.



It seems she has a different solution.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:16:23 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

but it looks like that's starting to fail even their cultural norms.


Well part of our American charm is out diversity. We got 50 different states doing 50 different things and in those 50 states lots of people are doing their own thing. A more uniform culture might be an an advantage here, as would a more controlled society, but I don't think Americans work that way. In the end we will be victorious, but at a price we can't imagine. Won't be the last one of these I suspect. Once we fix the problem we need to fix the response mechanism

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Post #: 2096
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:22:09 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Chickenboy, Not sure if you can help but I understand that developing a vaccine is one thing and manufacturing a vaccine in large quantities is a whole different problem. I'm digging into this now but is entirely possible that we may have a vaccine in 12-18 months but it will take much longer to manufacture it in large quantities. O


Yeah-those are two very distinct 'runways'. I agree that vaccinal mass production (say, for instance, approximately 7.5 billion doses) is a whole 'nuther problem beyond vaccine phased trials, approval and initial production.

I'm remembering the unfortunate chaos for the H1N1 'swine flu' vaccination in California in 2009-2010. Limited production runs led to rationing of vaccines at the point of delivery. Vaccines earmarked for pediatrics first were usurped by a panicked general public. IIRC, the state had to finally throw up their hands and give up on targeted vaccine delivery, because everyone wanted to be the first in line, and they were willing to lie, cheat, steal or fight to get there first.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:22:56 PM   
Yaab


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Status: offline 		Chematica software shows how to synthesise Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) bypassing patents.

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/Computer-Assisted_Planning_of_Hydroxychloroquine_s_Syntheses_Commencing_from_Inexpensive_Substrates_and_Bypassing_Patented_Routes_/12026439/1

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:26:01 PM   
obvert


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A massive field hospital is being built in a few days at the Excel Convention Center in the docklands. About 4,000 beds. Dyson is building 10k ventilators and is only awaiting approval of their finished design now to go into production.

A local council made the dubious decision to close one of the larger parks in London today in spite of the fact all other parks are open. This sent a storm of angry people onto twitter to complain, and essentially goes against the central govt's desire to keep parks open, people able to be out and getting some space to move into. It means that many people had to exercise and be outside in more restricted spaces, so was really counterproductive. It also goes against all reports I've read about transmission, which give 10.5% chance of transmission in direct extended contact and a 0.45% chance of transmission in limited contact INDOORS!

People are much more likely to catch this from touching a box delivered to their house than passing someone in a park, yet delivery is being touted as the preferred method of acquiring anything.

I had my first social distancing experience in a grocery setting yesterday, with mixed success. Two couples and an older woman in front of me distanced remarkably close to two meters, but a young man walked in while I waited and moved directly next to just about everyone in the store as he chose items. Then a middle aged man in his 50s came in and cut the queue to go right to the cashier and loudly announce he'd forgotten to pick up his lottery ticket. Anyone who tells you the British are good at queueing is a liar and has never been to a football match, a rush hour tube in central London or a summer music festival.

We are well, have spent a lot of time in the back garden today, and my daughter still believes we're all on holiday. We'll go out to ride our bikes by the river after her nap and see the duckies.

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Post #: 2099
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/26/2020 3:29:50 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


quote:

but it looks like that's starting to fail even their cultural norms.


Well part of our American charm is out diversity. We got 50 different states doing 50 different things and in those 50 states lots of people are doing their own thing. A more uniform culture might be an an advantage here, as would a more controlled society, but I don't think Americans work that way. In the end we will be victorious, but at a price we can't imagine. Won't be the last one of these I suspect. Once we fix the problem we need to fix the response mechanism


This is the article
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/

This is a new one out today.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/24/national/tokyo-governor-urges-cooperation-avoid-city-lockdown/#.XnzKXi2cbdd

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