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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:14:45 AM

Cap Mandrake

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Send them to Nauru

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 4:36:33 AM

Ian R

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That's for people who need to be sent to jail without trial indefinitely for daring to attempt to enter this country without a visa.

The two weekers are just a government ploy to not only mitigate the spread of the virus, but also to directly pay otherwise empty hotels to keep employing staff and maintain a thin facade of economic activity.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 7:29:32 AM

obvert

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This article on the missing doctor in China also had this in it. More and more confirmation that the Chinese numbers are not only off, but off by design.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/concerns-03302020150737.html

Hubei resident Feng Jianbin said many people worried about the continued spread of COVID-19 by people with no symptoms.

"Asymptomatic carriers, as they're called, are defined by the government, who just keep on redefining the parameters and then say that there are no confirmed cases," Feng said. "The aim is mainly to cover up the reality."

"The day before yesterday there was a case like this in Jingmen city, who had traveled through Wuhan and stayed there for two days," he said. "That was two-and-a-half months ago, and they've only just discovered him, which is terrifying."

News website Caixin called on health officials to release official figures for the number of asymptomatic cases, who are not treated by the authorities as confirmed COVID-19 cases, even if they test positive for the virus.

What is amazing now is that so much of this is coming from the Chinese people. I could see this being a turning point in China, a time when people began to stand up to the Government and demand more freedoms.

There are reports of people on the border of Hubei tossing over police cars and otherwise being civilly disobedient. More than that though the tide of information is nearly impossible for even the Chinese government to stop without turning ff the internet alltogether.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/1/2020 8:07:07 AM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 7:34:38 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Dunno if you listen to James O'Brien on LBC mate, but he had a succession of very clued up callers who explained rather well (and bloody worryingly) why we are not ramping up the testing.

We just don't have the capacity, and the government are making sweeping statements every day about it rather than talking to the experts......something the UK is becoming ridiculously good at ignoring recently.

I'm sure we will get there, but Germany doing 500,000 and we can't do 10,000 suggests something is badly wrong somewhere

I don't listen much to anyone. I read various articles and sometimes watch the BBC news.

So why are we not ramping up the testing? Did they explain other reasons besides the lack of enough chemicals to do the lab tests?

Germany is planning to do 200k a day, but currently has by all reports done somewhere over 500k total. The UK isn't bad now, but it's not doing enough of the most critical people, the NHS workers, and other necessary staff.

Found out last night my wife's business partner has it. Feeling rough, all of the symptoms. We're worried. She's only 39, but it's still a concern. Our children go to the same nursery, and the vector was their child. He is in a younger room, but this proves definitively that the virus was moving through the nursery.

So hard to distinguish symptoms in young ones, as they're similar to a number of other diseases that are going through all of the time, like hand, foot and mouth, which was there also. Our daughter had no symptoms, and neither have we, and it's been over two weeks since she was in nursery.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/1/2020 8:57:22 AM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 9:24:53 AM

JohnDillworth

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Ah, now the Yellowstone super volcano is waking up. It's pretty much the largest dormant volcano on earth. It goes off it's game over. New theory, this is the rapture and the dead are the ones called to heaven and the rest of us.....not so much. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 9:34:08 AM

obvert

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The FT have updated their US map to show what restrictions are in place state by state in the US. There are still a lot of states without any order to stay home it seems, and yet those all show cases present. Some quite a few, like Florida. Has there been informal suggestion to stay at home and isolate in these areas, or what is the message from local and state governments?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 9:37:57 AM

obvert

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A new cases chart. They've extended to show the uptick in China, but not on top to indicate actual US numbers. Still interesting. Italy especially showing flattening now.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 9:40:56 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Ah, now the Yellowstone super volcano is waking up. It's pretty much the largest dormant volcano on earth. It goes off it's game over. New theory, this is the rapture and the dead are the ones called to heaven and the rest of us.....not so much. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

This appears to show some quakes in Idaho, not at Yellowstone, which is farther NE mostly in Wyoming with some in Montana. By all accounts Yellowstone is due an eruption (in the next 1,000 years or so), so yes, it could happen anytime, or so far in the future we'll be long past worrying about it. Now though would be very bad.

There is one small quake in the Yellowstone area.

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< Message edited by obvert -- 4/1/2020 1:12:23 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 9:42:03 AM

alanschu

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USA had a very large spike in deaths (almost eclipsing Italy's peak number with 912 vs 919)

Spain's numbers (new cases and deaths) seem to be flattening (definitely are logarithmically).

France is still accelerating but looks to be linearly. UK and Germany both had big jumps. One interesting thing I see about Germany is that their first death came almost a full month after their first tests. They do seem to have gotten an early start on the testing, as opposed to other places which seem to have ramped up the testing once critical patients were being hit.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 11:00:05 AM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Dunno if you listen to James O'Brien on LBC mate, but he had a succession of very clued up callers who explained rather well (and bloody worryingly) why we are not ramping up the testing.

We just don't have the capacity, and the government are making sweeping statements every day about it rather than talking to the experts......something the UK is becoming ridiculously good at ignoring recently.

I'm sure we will get there, but Germany doing 500,000 and we can't do 10,000 suggests something is badly wrong somewhere

I don't listen much to anyone. I read various articles and sometimes watch the BBC news.

So why are we not ramping up the testing? Did they explain other reasons besides the lack of enough chemicals to do the lab tests?

Germany is planning to do 200k a day, but currently has by all reports done somewhere over 500k total. The UK isn't bad now, but it's not doing enough of the most critical people, the NHS workers, and other necessary staff.

Found out last night my wife's business partner has it. Feeling rough, all of the symptoms. We're worried. She's only 39, but it's still a concern. Our children go to the same nursery, and the vector was their child. He is in a younger room, but this proves definitively that the virus was moving through the nursery.

So hard to distinguish symptoms in young ones, as they're similar to a number of other diseases that are going through all of the time, like hand, foot and mouth, which was there also. Our daughter had no symptoms, and neither have we, and it's been over two weeks since she was in nursery.

There is a pretty good Chinese study showing the range of time between exposure and development of symptoms. That is between about 2 and 11 days with a mean of 5.5 days. 95% of symptomatic individuals will become symptomatic by 11 days post exposure.

This is where the 14 d quarantine came from

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 11:49:55 AM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

The FT have updated their US map to show what restrictions are in place state by state in the US. There are still a lot of states without any order to stay home it seems, and yet those all show cases present. Some quite a few, like Florida. Has there been informal suggestion to stay at home and isolate in these areas, or what is the message from local and state governments?

Many states that don't have a Federal or State mandated stay at home order per se, but these states have county-by-county or city restrictions. For example, Texas doesn't have a stay at home order, but the bigger counties (with the bigger cities) do. Harris county (Houston), Travis (Austin), Bexar (San Antonio) have county or city ordinances that are coordinated with neighboring counties. I think it's working pretty well for us-in a Texan way.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 11:56:14 AM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

It's the Apocalypse...

Mountain goats take over Welsh town in coronavirus lockdown

31 Mar 2020
https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/31/mountain-goats-take-welsh-town-coronavirus-lockdown-12483098/

"Goats have been defying the lockdown in a North Wales town by taking advantage of the quiet streets to mount a takeover. Empty roads in Llandudno proved a tempting habitat for the animals, who have been gorging on hedges and gardens."

I for one welcome our new goat overlords

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:07:28 PM

MakeeLearn

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"The US has more confirmed cases than any other country � more than 185,400, according to a CNN count.

More than 3,800 people have died in the US.

Between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die in the coming weeks, according to US government modeling.'

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-01-20-intl/index.html

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:09:52 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

USA had a very large spike in deaths (almost eclipsing Italy's peak number with 912 vs 919)

Spain's numbers (new cases and deaths) seem to be flattening (definitely are logarithmically).

France is still accelerating but looks to be linearly. UK and Germany both had big jumps. One interesting thing I see about Germany is that their first death came almost a full month after their first tests. They do seem to have gotten an early start on the testing, as opposed to other places which seem to have ramped up the testing once critical patients were being hit.

For the UK some of the jump was counting cases that never made it to hospital, which were not in the count before.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:11:21 PM

MakeeLearn

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Coronavirus death rate may be lower than previously thought
18 hours ago

https://www.livescience.com/death-rate-lower-than-estimates.html

"A group of researchers analyzed data from China and found that the overall mortality rate of COVID-19 was 1.38%. But if they adjusted for cases that likely went unaccounted for due to their mild or asymptomatic nature, the overall mortality rate decreased to around 0.66%, they reported on March 30 in journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases."

"The researchers also found that nearly 1 in 5 people over the age of 80 infected with COVID-19 were likely to require hospitalization whereas only 1% of people under 30 were likely to be hospitalized."

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:12:27 PM

Chickenboy

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Damnit. Why'd they have to mess up that nice curve from yesterday?

What looked like a clearly plateauing trendline yesterday is showing a very troubling spike today. My 'call' of an imminent peak was way off. Mea culpa. I was wrong.

Also hearing anecdotal reports from friends in the medical field that are being treated poorly at work with poor biosecurity protocols and supplies for frontline workers and rough mandates for work in a very hazardous environment. Combined with sporadic reports domestically about poor social distancing practices and still limited testing, my recent optimism has flatlined.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:15:30 PM

MakeeLearn

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Coronavirus (COVID-19) death rate in Italy as of March 31, 2020, by age group

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:18:08 PM

MakeeLearn

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More than 50% of Coronavirus patients in Mass. are under age 50, data shows
March 31, 2020
https://whdh.com/news/more-than-50-of-coronavirus-patients-in-mass-are-under-age-50-data-shows/

"BOSTON (WHDH) - While many coronavirus deaths in Massachusetts have involved individuals over the age of 60 with preexisting conditions, the majority of those who are getting infected are under the age of 50, state data shows.

Statistics shared by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health show 53 percent of all confirmed coronavirus cases in the state involve residents under the age of 50.

As of Monday afternoon, there were a total of 5,752 confirmed cases across the Commonwealth and 4,142 were people under the age of 50.

There were 1,088 cases in people 50-59 years of age � the highest count of any age range. There were 1,031 cases in people 30-39 years of age � the second highest case count.

The full case breakdown by age range is as follows:

≤19 years of age � 122
20-29 years of age � 953
30-39 years of age -1031
40-49 years of age � 948
50-59 years of age � 1088
60-69 years of age � 802
≥ 70 years of age -801
Unknown � 7"

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:21:05 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
...
Combined with sporadic reports domestically about poor social distancing practices and ...

I've read that they are contemplating everyone wearing mask in public. USA.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:23:53 PM

MakeeLearn

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I would imagine that anyone regardless of age/health will be infected if within the proximity of the virus. How the virus will affect you is the key question.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:25:37 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
...
Combined with sporadic reports domestically about poor social distancing practices and ...

I've read that they are contemplating everyone wearing mask in public. USA.

Yup.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:28:08 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Virus�virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold
December 26, 2019 116 (52) 27142-27150; first published December 16, 2019

https://www.pnas.org/content/116/52/27142

A study in Scotland, from 2005 to 2013, where they did mass tests on the various forms of winter virus that cause the flu, and found that 7-15% of flu cases are caused by Coronaviruses. At least that was the case in Glasgow from 2005 to 2013.

"Our study provides strong statistical support for the existence of interactions among genetically broad groups of respiratory viruses at both population and individual host scales.

Our findings imply that the incidence of influenza infections is interlinked with the incidence of noninfluenza viral infections with implications for the improved design of disease forecasting models and the evaluation of disease control interventions.

Future experimental studies are required to decipher the biological mechanisms that underpin virus�virus interactions and their effects on the within-host dynamics of infection."

As per one of my previous posts, a Coronavirus was killing people from 2005 to 2013 and being labeled as THE FLU.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/1/2020 12:46:49 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:28:48 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Also hearing anecdotal reports from friends in the medical field that are being treated poorly at work with poor biosecurity protocols and supplies for frontline workers and rough mandates for work in a very hazardous environment. Combined with sporadic reports domestically about poor social distancing practices and still limited testing, my recent optimism has flatlined.

I don't think you're alone in that, to be honest. It is woven in to basic human nature to be optimistic, and has demonstrated psychological advantages (especially in stress-inducing situations).

From what I've seen there's been a growing acceptance that there won't be a short, sharp "shock therapy" but instead going to be a much more prolonged process. We're in it for the long-haul, so to speak.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:35:40 PM

MakeeLearn

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Underlying Health Disparities Could Mean Coronavirus Hits Some Communities Harder
April 1, 2020

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/824874977/underlying-health-disparities-could-mean-coronavirus-hits-some-communities-harde

"New data released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that COVID-19 patients with underlying health issues in the United States are more likely to need treatment in a hospital � or even in an intensive care unit. They are also at higher risk of dying, according to earlier epidemiological data from both China and the U.S."

"The elderly are the hardest hit by the disease, accounting for about 80% of fatal cases in China and the U.S., according to CDC data."

"More than three-quarters of the COVID-19 patients who required ICU treatment in the U.S. had underlying health issues, including heart disease, diabetes and chronic lung conditions, according to the new CDC data on 6,600 cases for which underlying conditions and hospitalization status were reported."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/1/2020 12:37:04 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:40:54 PM

JohnDillworth

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A cultural observation

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:52:24 PM

JohnDillworth

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As us civil servants like to say......close enough for Government work: Yellowstone Calderas

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:54:51 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

As us civil servants like to say......close enough for Government work: Yellowstone Calderas

And on top of that, the Universe is expanding!

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 12:57:03 PM

MakeeLearn

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�As a man who has devoted his whole life to the most clearheaded science, to the study of matter, I can tell you as a result of my research about the atoms this much: There is no matter as such! All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force which brings the particles of an atom to vibration and holds this most minute solar system of the atom together. . . . We must assume behind this force the existence of a conscious and intelligent Mind. This Mind is the matrix of all matter.� - Max Planck

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 1:03:43 PM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
...
Combined with sporadic reports domestically about poor social distancing practices and ...

I've read that they are contemplating everyone wearing mask in public. USA.

Yup.

The doctor in NY I posted for the second time in this thread mentioned that face masks are useful, but mostly to prevent the person wearing one not touching their face and not coughing on someone else. The most useful protocol is still being a fanatic about cleaning hands and not touching one's face unless you're in constant contact with someone with the disease. The aerosol transmission route is about as likely as catching this from someone flushing the toilet and walking into the flush plume. (So don't share a cubicle with anyone either).

He's a bit long-winded, but it's somewhere around minute 10-15

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxyH1rkuLaw

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/1/2020 1:06:00 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/1/2020 1:08:13 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

As us civil servants like to say......close enough for Government work: Yellowstone Calderas

And on top of that, the Universe is expanding!

There s a pretty concerted effort in science these days challenging the accepted interpretation of the meaning of the redshift. And theories of the electric universe are gaining traction in the face of the accepted model of gravitation dominance. Our understanding of the universe is woefully incomplete.

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