Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oh, I get it. Thanks.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I think some folks find references to American exceptionalism to be something that is linked to all sorts of other connotations and emotions, making them feel that they are under attack.

As far as evidence, I think there is some evidence that the US might stay under the "Italian curve" long term, but I think the most likely explanation for this is not that the US health care system is better (although it does have more intensive care beds per capita than any other country, save for Germany*). The other Occam's razor explanation (beds being the first) for why we might be under the curve is geography.

* Germany may also be under the Italian curve, although not by much. It could also just be noise in early data.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't wish to sidetrack this thread with lengthy political and personal disagreements and long posts and counter-posts of "you said this" and "I said that." I see no profit in doing so when discussing things not pertinent to the topic of this thread. With that in mind, I replied to his three "American exceptionalism" assertions with as much brevity as possible. We'd do well to let this go and move back to the main topic.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Worldometers just added Italy's data. The number of deaths and number of new cases are essentially identical to yesterday's numbers. The encouraging aspect is that this solidifies the strong trend that the number of new cases has flattened or started down. This graph shows the numbers as of yesterday. When added to the chart, today's number will be just a bit lower than that of the 30th.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I posted recently a finding that the virus is mutating slowly. It has as many as 100+ variants now but they differ only in a few genes each, and so the supposition is that the immunity and the vaccine would be longer term. They equated it with something like a measles vaccine.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This article on the missing doctor in China also had this in it. More and more confirmation that the Chinese numbers are not only off, but off by design.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/concerns-03302020150737.html

Hubei resident Feng Jianbin said many people worried about the continued spread of COVID-19 by people with no symptoms.

"Asymptomatic carriers, as they're called, are defined by the government, who just keep on redefining the parameters and then say that there are no confirmed cases," Feng said. "The aim is mainly to cover up the reality."

"The day before yesterday there was a case like this in Jingmen city, who had traveled through Wuhan and stayed there for two days," he said. "That was two-and-a-half months ago, and they've only just discovered him, which is terrifying."

News website Caixin called on health officials to release official figures for the number of asymptomatic cases, who are not treated by the authorities as confirmed COVID-19 cases, even if they test positive for the virus.

What is amazing now is that so much of this is coming from the Chinese people. I could see this being a turning point in China, a time when people began to stand up to the Government and demand more freedoms.

There are reports of people on the border of Hubei tossing over police cars and otherwise being civilly disobedient. More than that though the tide of information is nearly impossible for even the Chinese government to stop without turning ff the internet alltogether.

quote:

ORIGINAL: alanschu

USA had a very large spike in deaths (almost eclipsing Italy's peak number with 912 vs 919)

Spain's numbers (new cases and deaths) seem to be flattening (definitely are logarithmically).

France is still accelerating but looks to be linearly. UK and Germany both had big jumps. One interesting thing I see about Germany is that their first death came almost a full month after their first tests. They do seem to have gotten an early start on the testing, as opposed to other places which seem to have ramped up the testing once critical patients were being hit.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The term "American exceptionalism" isn't threatening, it's just a broad word, recently created, that means different things to different people.

Some folks in here have said that there have been "American exceptionalism" posts in here. I made three of the posts referenced. They were certainly not "American excpetionalism" claims, as I understand them. Certainly when you read my comments in context with all my posts, you know I'm not claiming America is somehow better than other countries. We are more fortunate to be facing this later than others, thus able to learn from them. And we are fortunate to have resources that other countries don't have. This doesn't make us somehow superior to anybody else, but it does give us advantages in dealing with this.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I guess I don't find polite discussion, assumption of good intent in said discussions, and self-examination to be political in nature. I suppose YMMV.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The term "American exceptionalism" isn't threatening, it's just a broad word, recently created, that means different things to different people.

Some folks in here have said that there have been "American exceptionalism" posts in here. I made three of the posts referenced. They were certainly not "American excpetionalism" claims, as I understand them. Certainly when you read my comments in context with all my posts, you know I'm not claiming America is somehow better than other countries. We are more fortunate to be facing this later than others, thus able to learn from them. And we are fortunate to have resources that other countries don't have. This doesn't make us somehow superior to anybody else, but it does give us advantages in dealing with this.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

I am going to Smart and Final after work and buying about 5 restaurant size bags of Starbucks french roast. I'll throw out the frozen chicken in the fridge.

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Like 22sec's report about Mississippi, the situation in Georgia isn't quite what you'd take from the map (though we don't have a statewide shelter-in-place edict).

Here, the state mostly allowed local governments to handle regulations and ordinances. They did so surprisingly quickly. Schools closed, social distancing regulations were enacted, and some jurisdictions issued stay-at-home orders much earlier than other states and many European countries. (As noted before this is because the US had the benefit of going "last," learning from others.)

To this point, the local discretion seems to be working well. High density populations tend to have much stricter policies, while rural ones are a bit more relaxed. But even in the rural counties, the schools closed before those in England did, which seems counterintuitive to what would've been expected.

There will be many ways to look at this in the future. Among the more puzzling aspects is how Washington and California have done comparatively well, considering they were bushwhacked early in the process.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The term "American exceptionalism" isn't threatening, it's just a broad word, recently created, that means different things to different people.

Some folks in here have said that there have been "American exceptionalism" posts in here. I made three of the posts referenced. They were certainly not "American excpetionalism" claims, as I understand them. Certainly when you read my comments in context with all my posts, you know I'm not claiming America is somehow better than other countries. We are more fortunate to be facing this later than others, thus able to learn from them. And we are fortunate to have resources that other countries don't have. This doesn't make us somehow superior to anybody else, but it does give us advantages in dealing with this.

1. The notion of "American exceptionalism" is not that America is de facto "better" or superior, but that America is different (or the exception, so to speak) from the rest of the world in a particular context (originally in political and historical contexts).

2. My original statement was referring to the exceptionalism in the views expressed in the thread that the US was going to be global exception because of two reasons:
i) the advanced sight of COVID-19 in other countries
ii) quality of healthcare in the US vs the rest of the world
iii) actions taken by the US to mitigate the spread.

3. I presented evidence that challenged the assumptions underpinning 2(i). We've still not got to a discussion of the evidence presented (and I am open to challenge on it).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I guess I don't find polite discussion, assumption of good intent in said discussions, and self-examination to be political in nature. I suppose YMMV.

I'm good with self-examination and polite discussion. And we all give others an assumption of good intent. But when a person consistently deviates from the norm, exception may be taken.

The most offensive posts I've seen here (those clearly contrary to the Forum rules) have been political in nature. Many of those floated by without notice or objection from the folks now objecting to references to "American exceptionalism" (which, as you've noted, have been rather vague and uncertain).

It would be very easy for this thread to veer off course and crash. This community is diverse, with every kine of political persuasion present. Many feel very strongly and will rise to the occasion if in disagreement with assertions by others. The General Forum discussion on the virus dried up and died because of disagreement. I'd rather not see that happen here. I think you and most everyone else agrees. Politics is sure to drive the fatal wedge and is contrary to the Forum decorum rules to boot.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The term "American exceptionalism" isn't threatening, it's just a broad word, recently created, that means different things to different people.

Some folks in here have said that there have been "American exceptionalism" posts in here. I made three of the posts referenced. They were certainly not "American excpetionalism" claims, as I understand them. Certainly when you read my comments in context with all my posts, you know I'm not claiming America is somehow better than other countries. We are more fortunate to be facing this later than others, thus able to learn from them. And we are fortunate to have resources that other countries don't have. This doesn't make us somehow superior to anybody else, but it does give us advantages in dealing with this.

1. The notion of "American exceptionalism" is not that America is de facto "better" or superior, but that America is different (or the exception, so to speak) from the rest of the world in a particular context (originally in political and historical contexts).

2. My original statement was referring to the exceptionalism in the views expressed in the thread that the US was going to be global exception because of two reasons:
i) the advanced sight of COVID-19 in other countries
ii) quality of healthcare in the US vs the rest of the world
iii) actions taken by the US to mitigate the spread.

3. I presented evidence that challenged the assumptions underpinning 2(i). We've still not got to a discussion of the evidence presented (and I am open to challenge on it).

I don't understand Point 1. Every country is unique. Every country is different. America too.

I don't understand Point 2i. What is "advanced sight of COVID-19"?


The US has taken countermeasures. And, since we had the advantage of reacting later, some of those countermeasures were taken earlier in our cycle. I noted that Georgia closed its schools earlier than England, which struck me as suprising. I also made it clear that was because we were lucky to see what was going on elsewhere; not because we were somehow "better."

quote:

To my knowledge, no one compared the healthcare in the US with the rest of the world. I wrote that the US has good healthcare [I think it does] and I did state that our healthcare combined with other factors (going later in the cycle) should give us advantages that might help us in fighting COVID-19. That makes sense.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I guess I don't find polite discussion, assumption of good intent in said discussions, and self-examination to be political in nature. I suppose YMMV.

I'm good with self-examination and polite discussion. And we all give others an assumption of good intent. But when a person consistently deviates from the norm, exception may be taken.

The most offensive posts I've seen here (those clearly contrary to the Forum rules) have been political in nature. Many of those floated by without notice or objection from the folks now objecting to references to "American exceptionalism" (which, as you've noted, have been rather vague and uncertain).

It would be very easy for this thread to veer off course and crash. This community is diverse, with every kine of political persuasion present. Many feel very strongly and will rise to the occasion if in disagreement with assertions by others. The General Forum discussion on the virus dried up and died because of disagreement. I'd rather not see that happen here. I think you and most everyone else agrees. Politics is sure to drive the fatal wedge and is contrary to the Forum decorum rules to boot.

Naturally, given your repeated attempts to control the discussion, you are in the position to define what the "norm" is?

There is a repeating pattern of behaviour on your part: when your claims are challenged with evidence, the evidence is ignored, the intent behind the post is demeaned and the poster disparaged, and negative labels attached.

This is evident in this thread, and on previous occasions on the forum. It has been noted, both by myself and other members of the forum.

For you to attempt to take this position as a "moderator for civility" is exceptionally hypocritical. John 8:7

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The term "American exceptionalism" isn't threatening, it's just a broad word, recently created, that means different things to different people.

Some folks in here have said that there have been "American exceptionalism" posts in here. I made three of the posts referenced. They were certainly not "American excpetionalism" claims, as I understand them. Certainly when you read my comments in context with all my posts, you know I'm not claiming America is somehow better than other countries. We are more fortunate to be facing this later than others, thus able to learn from them. And we are fortunate to have resources that other countries don't have. This doesn't make us somehow superior to anybody else, but it does give us advantages in dealing with this.

1. The notion of "American exceptionalism" is not that America is de facto "better" or superior, but that America is different (or the exception, so to speak) from the rest of the world in a particular context (originally in political and historical contexts).

2. My original statement was referring to the exceptionalism in the views expressed in the thread that the US was going to be global exception because of two reasons:
i) the advanced sight of COVID-19 in other countries
ii) quality of healthcare in the US vs the rest of the world
iii) actions taken by the US to mitigate the spread.

3. I presented evidence that challenged the assumptions underpinning 2(i). We've still not got to a discussion of the evidence presented (and I am open to challenge on it).

I don't understand Point 1. Every country is unique. Every country is different. America too.

I don't understand Point 2i. What is "advanced sight of COVID-19"?


The US has taken countermeasures. And, since we had the advantage of reacting later, some of those countermeasures were taken earlier in our cycle. I noted that Georgia closed its schools earlier than England, which struck me as suprising. I also made it clear that was because we were lucky to see what was going on elsewhere; not because we were somehow "better."

1. The point was that the view was being expressed that America would not follow the emerging international trends for a variety of reasons proposed. I challenged one of those reasons.

2(i) refers to the ability to observe and learn from the international experience of COVID (Italy, China, Japan etc)

quote:

To my knowledge, no one compared the healthcare in the US with the rest of the world. I wrote that the US has good healthcare [I think it does] and I did state that our healthcare combined with other factors (going later in the cycle) should give us advantages that might help us in fighting COVID-19. That makes sense.

I refer you to post 2414 - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4784923

Where you stated "We took countermeasures earlier in our cycle than Italy did theirs; we are blessed with a a more robust nationwide healthcare system that's had more time to gear up and develop treatments and ideas; we have a much bigger (but also more dispersed) population than Italy's. But I can't envision a scenario where we fail utterly in comparison. "

I presented evidence to challenge that.

This is supported by an earlier posts: 910 (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4776343), 1074 (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4777489) and 2561 (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4785787)

You can throw in our earlier discussion where you dismissed my points about the structural issues about American healthcare out of hand (again, with zero engagement with evidence) with some handwaving to the list, but there's a lot to index there.

I should point out that this isn't aimed at you singularly. I had felt that Chickenboy was expressing the same (excessive?) optimism in the thread, but his recent post (2656 -http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4785787) has made me refrain from challenging that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

In that Michael Osterholm interview posted yesterday, he made a comment about how much virus is present in samples from patients' throats (throat cultures taken). On day sick, patients have 1,000 times as many virus particles there as did patients with SARS when the SARS patients were at their most contagious. The amount decreased day by day after; samples were not available from the study group on days -1 or -2 but it's presumed the amount of virus particles was even greater. This might be part of why it's so contagious as virus gets out there from patients just talking.

Note: I corrected this post after finding the section in the audio (a little after 1 hour 3 minutes)

I have a questions for the experts here. Since the virus seems to multiply fast before symptoms appear, would good oral hygiene either help keep one for getting sick by reducing the viral load and/or not get as sick since there would be fewer viruses? I mean not just brushing ones teeth, but using a mouthwash and gargle with it as well. That should help reduce the numbers of the viruses available to spread to other people or infect more cells in that person.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

BBfanboy, no state is "playing 'business as usual." 30 states have state-mandated rules that apply across the board; most or all of the other 20 have variations or have allowed local governments to handle the declarations. As noted above, Georgia is one of the latter. Many counties and municipalities in Georgia were way ahead of other states and countries in implementing countermeasures.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"American exceptionalism"

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I just read this, with the size of this thread I can't be sure it hasn't already been posted.

Coronavirus: The California Herd

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Before I get caught up on the 6 pages I've missed since checking in yesterday (I'm taking the opportunity to get stuff done around the property since I don't have to commute anymore), here's a really cool link.

Note that it assumes our current measures of extreme social distancing will remain in place through all of May. Its projection (which should be a median projection) is for 93,765 deaths in the US from COVID-19 by August 4 (the error bar covers 41K to 177K, so not too different from Fauci's comments on Sunday).

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Hey Chickenboy - got thoughts?

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I guess I don't find polite discussion, assumption of good intent in said discussions, and self-examination to be political in nature. I suppose YMMV.

I'm good with self-examination and polite discussion. And we all give others an assumption of good intent. But when a person consistently deviates from the norm, exception may be taken.

The most offensive posts I've seen here (those clearly contrary to the Forum rules) have been political in nature. Many of those floated by without notice or objection from the folks now objecting to references to "American exceptionalism" (which, as you've noted, have been rather vague and uncertain).

It would be very easy for this thread to veer off course and crash. This community is diverse, with every kine of political persuasion present. Many feel very strongly and will rise to the occasion if in disagreement with assertions by others. The General Forum discussion on the virus dried up and died because of disagreement. I'd rather not see that happen here. I think you and most everyone else agrees. Politics is sure to drive the fatal wedge and is contrary to the Forum decorum rules to boot.

Naturally, given your repeated attempts to control the discussion, you are in the position to define what the "norm" is?

There is a repeating pattern of behaviour on your part: when your claims are challenged with evidence, the evidence is ignored, the intent behind the post is demeaned and the poster disparaged, and negative labels attached.

This is evident in this thread, and on previous occasions on the forum. It has been noted, both by myself and other members of the forum.

For you to attempt to take this position as a "moderator for civility" is exceptionally hypocritical. John 8:7

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The term "American exceptionalism" isn't threatening, it's just a broad word, recently created, that means different things to different people.

Some folks in here have said that there have been "American exceptionalism" posts in here. I made three of the posts referenced. They were certainly not "American excpetionalism" claims, as I understand them. Certainly when you read my comments in context with all my posts, you know I'm not claiming America is somehow better than other countries. We are more fortunate to be facing this later than others, thus able to learn from them. And we are fortunate to have resources that other countries don't have. This doesn't make us somehow superior to anybody else, but it does give us advantages in dealing with this.

1. The notion of "American exceptionalism" is not that America is de facto "better" or superior, but that America is different (or the exception, so to speak) from the rest of the world in a particular context (originally in political and historical contexts).

2. My original statement was referring to the exceptionalism in the views expressed in the thread that the US was going to be global exception because of two reasons:
i) the advanced sight of COVID-19 in other countries
ii) quality of healthcare in the US vs the rest of the world
iii) actions taken by the US to mitigate the spread.

3. I presented evidence that challenged the assumptions underpinning 2(i). We've still not got to a discussion of the evidence presented (and I am open to challenge on it).

I don't understand Point 1. Every country is unique. Every country is different. America too.

I don't understand Point 2i. What is "advanced sight of COVID-19"?


The US has taken countermeasures. And, since we had the advantage of reacting later, some of those countermeasures were taken earlier in our cycle. I noted that Georgia closed its schools earlier than England, which struck me as suprising. I also made it clear that was because we were lucky to see what was going on elsewhere; not because we were somehow "better."

1. The point was that the view was being expressed that America would not follow the emerging international trends for a variety of reasons proposed. I challenged one of those reasons.

2(i) refers to the ability to observe and learn from the international experience of COVID (Italy, China, Japan etc)

quote:

To my knowledge, no one compared the healthcare in the US with the rest of the world. I wrote that the US has good healthcare [I think it does] and I did state that our healthcare combined with other factors (going later in the cycle) should give us advantages that might help us in fighting COVID-19. That makes sense.

I refer you to post 2414 - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4784923

Where you stated "We took countermeasures earlier in our cycle than Italy did theirs; we are blessed with a a more robust nationwide healthcare system that's had more time to gear up and develop treatments and ideas; we have a much bigger (but also more dispersed) population than Italy's. But I can't envision a scenario where we fail utterly in comparison. "

I presented evidence to challenge that.

This is supported by an earlier posts: 910 (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4776343), 1074 (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4777489) and 2561 (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4785787)

You can throw in our earlier discussion where you dismissed my points about the structural issues about American healthcare out of hand (again, with zero engagement with evidence) with some handwaving to the list, but there's a lot to index there.

I should point out that this isn't aimed at you singularly. I had felt that Chickenboy was expressing the same (excessive?) optimism in the thread, but his recent post (2656 -http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4785787) has made me refrain from challenging that.

quote:

If by "controlling the discussion" you mean "trying to steer us away from politics," I've certainly done that. But the discussion in here has been robust, with very few "steerings" needed.

quote:

I don't ignore your post, but I don't like diverting the thread with lengthy chains of two parties posting "you said this" and "I said this" repeatedly. Already, that's what's happening here. Create another thread if you wish to go off on tangents. I've said that before. If that's controlling, so be it.

quote:

Our previous discussions have not gone well (Climate Change and some of the things in here), leading me to not want to get into lengthy discussions on tangential issues in here.

quote:

I disagreed with your comments about the poor in the US not having access to healthcare.

quote:

I pointed out the reasons for my thoughts.

quote:

How things have played out, at least to this point, have supported my views. There has been no evidence that the poor have been denied healthcare, at least to any statistically relevant extent.

quote:

Truly, I think we ought to take this elsewhere. Or, I can be excused, if there's a pressing need to engage in political discussion or contretemps in here.