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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 9:41:20 AM

mind_messing

Posts: 3393
Joined: 10/28/2013
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Essential reading for anyone trying to interpret the numbers on this:

https://www.statslife.org.uk/features/4474-a-statistician-s-guide-to-coronavirus-numbers

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 3061

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 9:43:49 AM

obvert

Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Essential reading for anyone trying to interpret the numbers on this:

https://www.statslife.org.uk/features/4474-a-statistician-s-guide-to-coronavirus-numbers

Very useful, thanks. I've learned most of that here actually, but there were still a few tidbits that helped fill some gaps and help me understand what I'm looking at better.

Also useful to snd on to students right now.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 3062

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 9:47:35 AM

Sardaukar

Posts: 9847
Joined: 11/28/2001
From: Finland/Israel
Status: offline

If someone is interested about how things are in Finland and measures, this is a good site:

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/

It is bit like our "BBC".

So far (this morning) 1615 confirmed corona cases, 19 dead. Testing is limited mostly to those at heightened risk, health and other professionals that have to be in contact with people etc. Mass testing is not yet done.

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Post #: 3063

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 9:58:48 AM

RFalvo69

Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
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And now I found these news dating back to March, 30th. It seems that the USS Ronald Reagan too could be facing the Coronavirus.

https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/report-two-yokosuka-sailors-who-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-are-assigned-to-uss-ronald-reagan-1.624166

Two sailors tested positive while in Yokosuka. Since her Captain didn't write a letter (and the new rules forbid for military personnel to give this kind of info to the public), it is impossible to say if they dodged a bullet or if there is a second "Theodore Roosevelt" situation.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to RFalvo69)

Post #: 3064

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 9:59:35 AM

Wuffer

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Joined: 6/16/2011
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In the beginning of february, around the first week, I remember strongly the news about 'leaked numbers' in China, but most sources including the SCMP (which evolves with hindsight as an astonishing reliable newspaper) didn't list them any longer.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7971401/Have-real-coronavirus-death-figures-leaked-Chinese-conglomerate-lists-death-toll-24-589.html

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 3065

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 10:08:14 AM

warspite1

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Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Well I haven't been buying the comments re Germany. And suddenly their critical cases seem to have exploded from a consistently tiny figure (I don't believe the UK critical figure either - or the recovered number come to that).

If the reasons given for such a low German death rate were to be believed, surely there is no reason - following even tighter lock down measures - that their deaths and criticals should suddenly start rising? Even for a country as efficient as Germany, those numbers (compared to all those around them) just didn't stack up. Or maybe this is just a blip. I watch this with interest. For the avoidance of doubt I don't think there is anything sinister here - I just think there may have been a difference in procedure (how deaths are checked for Corona) and reporting.

It's been posted numerous times on this thread and there is abundant info on Germany available with a quick search.

1. Case age average up until about 3-4 days ago was 46 years old. Very low
2. This was caused mainly by skiing crowd picking it up and coming back, then partying at Carnival.
3. Older people told early on to isolate, no visits to care homes, etc.
4. Extensive testing and case tracking early.
5. Extensive testing finds more mild or asymptomatic cases bring the mortality rates down.

There are a lot of reports that now it's finding a way into care homes and other vectors to the more vulneable, so as seen elsewhere, this would bring up critical cases and mortality.

In the UK London is the centre of this so far and only 11% of Londoners are over 70, IIRC. There are obviously other risk factors though, and low testing means mortality rates will at least seem higher until we know more about who has or has had this.

warspite1

Yes I know. I do take the time to read (most peoples) comments on here. The fact that explanations (which are often not fact but opinion and guesswork) have been given doesn't mean that I, or anyone else, has to agree with them. In particular the idea that Germany got the disease largely (though of course not entirely) as a result of fit and healthy young skiers coming back to Germany and then, apparently, not having any relatives, friends or work colleagues - old or young - to spread the virus too is to my mind absurd. Many won't have known they had the virus in the early days and besides, many, many people were not taking it seriously then - even now there are a great many who aren't.

And as queried, if Germany has done such a fantastic job of containing the virus and protecting the elderly in the early days then why, in a climate where lock downs and awareness is even greater, does the virus only now start "finding its way into care homes and other vectors to the more vulnerable"? Knowing the German way of going about business I fully expect that they have been far more organised than say the British or French (to name just two) and had they not been, things could have been a whole lot worse. But despite this, I just think those numbers are too low given what we know about the voraciousness with which it spreads.

I may be way off base, but my gut feel is that they've not been measuring the way others have - and as said I am not suggesting for one moment this is for any sinister reason.

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England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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Post #: 3066

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 10:12:00 AM

warspite1

Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Are you angry at the Chicoms yet?

How about this? 760,000 people flooded into the US from China AFTER the CCP knew about the deadliness and alarming infectiousness of the virus.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625

If you ask me, the f****** did that on purpose

But travel is a different thing altogether. This article mentions also that about 1/3 of that number were Americans returning home from travelling in China. All you have to do is look at the number of normally scheduled fights around the world to see that this stuff will spread regardless of intent.

warspite1

I completely agree. If allowing people to fly around the world (into and out of the country) is a sign of guilt then that's just about every world leader in the dock.

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 3067

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 10:58:00 AM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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United Nations wants 10% of entire planet�s annual income in fund for coronavirus response
Apr 1, 2020

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/united-nations-wants-10-of-worlds-annual-income-in-fund-for-coronavirus-response

"April 1, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) � The United Nations Secretary-General, Ant�nio Guterres, has announced the creation of a fund for addressing the global coronavirus pandemic � and he is simultaneously asking nations to contribute the equivalent of at least 10 percent of the annual income of the entire planet to a massive �human-centered, innovative and coordinated stimulus package� that would be administered at the international level."

"f countries were to accept the plan, the United Nations or some similar coordinating agency would be given the equivalent of approximately 8.7 trillion USD, an unprecedented amount that would be 2,900 times greater than the UN�s annual budget of 3 billion USD."

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Post #: 3068

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:05:14 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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University of Pittsburgh scientists believe they found potential coronavirus vaccine
April 2, 2020

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/

"Scientists at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine believe that they�ve found a potential vaccine for the new coronavirus."

"�We knew exactly where to fight this new virus.�

The vaccine follows the traditional approach of ordinary flu vaccines, using lab-made pieces of viral protein to build immunity.

While the mice have not been studied over a long period of time, the vaccine was able to deliver enough antibodies against the coronavirus within two weeks, according to the researchers.

The study�s authors are now applying for an investigational new drug approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. They hope to start human clinical trials within the next few months."

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Post #: 3069

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:09:15 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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WHO: Nearly All Coronavirus Deaths in Europe Are People Aged 60 and Older
The World Health Organization also said that more than 50% of all deaths there were people aged 80 or older.
April 2, 2020,

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-04-02/who-nearly-all-coronavirus-deaths-in-europe-are-people-aged-60-and-older

"The head of the World Health Organization said that almost everyone who has died of the coronavirus in Europe has been over the age of 60.

Dr. Hans Kluge, the regional director for WHO Europe, said in a virtual press briefing that 95% of COVID-19 fatalities on the continent have been people older than 60. Additionally, more than 50% of all deaths in Europe were people aged 80 or older.

However, younger people are not immune. Ten to 15% of people under 50 with the coronavirus have developed moderate or severe infection."

"It isn't all bad news though, Kluge said.

"On a positive note," he added, "there are reports of people over the age of 100 who were admitted to hospital for COVID-19 and have now � since � made a complete recovery.""

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Post #: 3070

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:14:13 AM

JohnDillworth

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Joined: 3/19/2009
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We are never going to get outside again. The MTA, who runs the subways in NYC, has many employees out with Covid adding to the previous service cuts. Subways are sometimes erratic, and some folks are continuing to work and commute, probably by necessity. I won't go near the things myself, but if this continues (an isolated incident I hope) this wont end. The subways need to be shut down.

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Post #: 3071

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:19:12 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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The 1,000-Bed Comfort Was Supposed to Aid New York. It Has 20 Patients.
April 2, 2020

�It�s a joke,� said a top hospital executive, whose facilities are packed with coronavirus patients.

"On Thursday, though, the huge white vessel, which officials had promised would bring succor to a city on the brink, sat mostly empty, infuriating executives at local hospitals. The ship�s 1,000 beds are largely unused, its 1,200-member crew mostly idle.

Only 20 patients had been transferred to the ship, officials said, even as New York hospitals struggled to find space for the thousands infected with the coronavirus. Another Navy hospital ship, the U.S.N.S. Mercy, docked in Los Angeles, has had a total of 15 patients, officials said.

�If I�m blunt about it, it�s a joke,� said Michael Dowling, the head of Northwell Health, New York�s largest hospital system. �Everyone can say, �Thank you for putting up these wonderful places and opening up these cavernous halls.� But we�re in a crisis here, we�re in a battlefield.�"

"On top of its strict rules preventing people infected with the virus from coming on board, the Navy is also refusing to treat a host of other conditions. Guidelines disseminated to hospitals included a list of 49 medical conditions that would exclude a patient from admittance to the ship."

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Post #: 3072

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:20:31 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

... we�re in a battlefield.�

No you are not.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/3/2020 11:21:38 AM >

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(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 3073

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:28:04 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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Billions in virus aid aim to shelter, test the homeless
yesterday

https://apnews.com/f3ed59186bbf1a6b2dd84a2c8ebb933f

"WASHINGTON (AP) � The Trump administration said Thursday it is distributing about $3 billion in the first round of coronavirus aid to help the homeless find emergency shelter and communities expand testing and treatment.

Advocacy groups say the homeless population is particularly at risk during the pandemic. Many already have health problems such as heart disease or diabetes, and live in conditions that do not allow for frequent hand washing and social distancing."

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Post #: 3074

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:36:54 AM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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quote:

While China now carries a big stick to go along with it's focus on commerce, it's essentially a mercantile empire, not a military expansionist one.

You might want to talk to the Indians or Vietnamese about that. Then there is the small matter of Korea. Also, I would say the Taiwanese and Japanese don't share your confidence. Neither does the Dalai Lama

They are just getting ready.

(in reply to obvert)

Post #: 3075

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:37:04 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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Israeli coronavirus fatalities are mostly elderly men, average age 79.8
2 April 2020,

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-coronavirus-fatalities-mostly-elderly-men-average-age-79-8/

"64% of dead are male, only 6% under 60, in line with global averages; 50,000 now deceased worldwide, with nearly a million infections"

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Post #: 3076

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:38:51 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

While China now carries a big stick to go along with it's focus on commerce, it's essentially a mercantile empire, not a military expansionist one.

You might want to talk to the Indians or Vietnamese about that. Then there is the small matter of Korea. Also, I would say the Taiwanese and Japanese don't share your confidence. Neither does the Dalai Lama

They are just getting ready.

We come in peace!

Words can be so pretty.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/3/2020 11:40:43 AM >

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Post #: 3077

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:43:05 AM

MakeeLearn

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Joined: 9/11/2016
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Hospitalizations, deaths higher for coronavirus patients with diabetes
CDT April 2, 2020
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/hospitalizations-deaths-higher-for-coronavirus-patients-with-diabetes/287-bae9a254-cf39-44dd-9731-947b3d285f95

"DALLAS � According to Dallas County Health and Human Services, 28% of COVID-19 patients who have required hospitalization in Dallas County are diabetic.

While the state of Texas says it does not yet have data to provide trends showing diabetes and coronavirus complications, Louisiana does.

Data released by the state health department on Monday shows 40% of Louisiana patients who died from COVID-19 had diabetes. "

_____________________________

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Post #: 3078

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:44:02 AM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

But travel is a different thing altogether. This article mentions also that about 1/3 of that number were Americans returning home from travelling in China. All you have to do is look at the number of normally scheduled fights around the world to see that this stuff will spread regardless of intent.

I didn't make myself clear. I'm not saying they intentionally manufactured the virus or even ordered infected people to leave. What they did was not warn the rest of the world in a timely fashion as was their negotiated obligation. That has to be either extreme negligence or intent. The obvious cover-up and laughable propaganda claims since makes me think it was the latter.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 3079

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:46:11 AM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

Disaster in motion: 3.4 million travelers poured into US as coronavirus pandemic erupted
April 2, 2020, 11:19 AM

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/disaster-motion-34-million-travelers-poured-us-coronavirus/story?id=69933625

" An ABC News investigation offers sobering insight into how COVID-19 has spread and penetrated so broadly, so deeply and so quickly in the United States. It also helps explain why Americans, no matter where they live, must continue to heed the warnings of health officials to self distance and why the virus likely was here far earlier than first realized.

With the advent of COVID-19, the world has officially entered a dangerous new phase where a surge in international travel in recent decades served as the springboard -- jet fuel, really -- for an infectious disease potentially to kill hundreds of thousands in the U.S. and infect the global economy at breathtaking speed."

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Post #: 3080

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:46:54 AM

warspite1

Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

We are never going to get outside again. The MTA, who runs the subways in NYC, has many employees out with Covid adding to the previous service cuts. Subways are sometimes erratic, and some folks are continuing to work and commute, probably by necessity. I won't go near the things myself, but if this continues (an isolated incident I hope) this wont end. The subways need to be shut down.

warspite1

Sadly London is the same.....

Some people still need to work and can't work from home. So what do they do? Cut down on the number of trains and tubes running. Okay.....

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 3081

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:47:12 AM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Hospitalizations, deaths higher for coronavirus patients with diabetes
CDT April 2, 2020
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/hospitalizations-deaths-higher-for-coronavirus-patients-with-diabetes/287-bae9a254-cf39-44dd-9731-947b3d285f95

"DALLAS � According to Dallas County Health and Human Services, 28% of COVID-19 patients who have required hospitalization in Dallas County are diabetic.

While the state of Texas says it does not yet have data to provide trends showing diabetes and coronavirus complications, Louisiana does.

Data released by the state health department on Monday shows 40% of Louisiana patients who died from COVID-19 had diabetes. "

Sounds plausible. Chronic diabetes causes multiple and cumulative end organ injuries, especially to the heart and kidneys.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 3082

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:50:06 AM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Hospitalizations, deaths higher for coronavirus patients with diabetes
CDT April 2, 2020
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/hospitalizations-deaths-higher-for-coronavirus-patients-with-diabetes/287-bae9a254-cf39-44dd-9731-947b3d285f95

"DALLAS � According to Dallas County Health and Human Services, 28% of COVID-19 patients who have required hospitalization in Dallas County are diabetic.

While the state of Texas says it does not yet have data to provide trends showing diabetes and coronavirus complications, Louisiana does.

Data released by the state health department on Monday shows 40% of Louisiana patients who died from COVID-19 had diabetes. "

Sounds plausible. Chronic diabetes causes multiple and cumulative end organ injuries, especially to the heart and kidneys.

It's one of the reasons it's going to hit the US hard. I do believe.
Look at Louisiana and it's numbers.

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Post #: 3083

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:57:59 AM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

Iam having problems finding US deaths by age, preexisting conditions. Anyone have that?

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Post #: 3084

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 11:58:34 AM

Uncivil Engineer

Posts: 1014
Joined: 2/22/2012
From: Florida, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

United Nations wants 10% of entire planet�s annual income in fund for coronavirus response
Apr 1, 2020

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/united-nations-wants-10-of-worlds-annual-income-in-fund-for-coronavirus-response

"April 1, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) � The United Nations Secretary-General, Ant�nio Guterres, has announced the creation of a fund for addressing the global coronavirus pandemic � and he is simultaneously asking nations to contribute the equivalent of at least 10 percent of the annual income of the entire planet to a massive �human-centered, innovative and coordinated stimulus package� that would be administered at the international level."

"f countries were to accept the plan, the United Nations or some similar coordinating agency would be given the equivalent of approximately 8.7 trillion USD, an unprecedented amount that would be 2,900 times greater than the UN�s annual budget of 3 billion USD."

Yeah, that's not going to happen. In fact, the head of WHO, which I believe is run by the UN, should be fired for spreading ChiCom propaganda about the virus back in January. Big help he was!

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 3085

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 12:02:15 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

United Nations wants 10% of entire planet�s annual income in fund for coronavirus response
Apr 1, 2020

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/united-nations-wants-10-of-worlds-annual-income-in-fund-for-coronavirus-response

"April 1, 2020 (LifeSiteNews) � The United Nations Secretary-General, Ant�nio Guterres, has announced the creation of a fund for addressing the global coronavirus pandemic � and he is simultaneously asking nations to contribute the equivalent of at least 10 percent of the annual income of the entire planet to a massive �human-centered, innovative and coordinated stimulus package� that would be administered at the international level."

"f countries were to accept the plan, the United Nations or some similar coordinating agency would be given the equivalent of approximately 8.7 trillion USD, an unprecedented amount that would be 2,900 times greater than the UN�s annual budget of 3 billion USD."

Yeah, that's not going to happen. In fact, the head of WHO, which I believe is run by the UN, should be fired for spreading ChiCom propaganda about the virus back in January. Big help he was!

Many "Power Plays" are happening.

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Post #: 3086

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 12:03:55 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Uncivil Engineer
Yeah, that's not going to happen. In fact, the head of WHO, which I believe is run by the UN, should be fired for spreading ChiCom propaganda about the virus back in January. Big help he was!

China OWNS a lot of people.

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(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 3087

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 12:08:44 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

One of the Coronavirus jokes going around is:

Coronavirus causes a loss of smell.

Yea, so you can't smell a rat!

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Post #: 3088

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 12:12:45 PM

JohnDillworth

Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

Sadly London is the same..... Some people still need to work and can't work from home. So what do they do? Cut down on the number of trains and tubes running. Okay.....

Kinda startin to wonder if we either do just that now, or do it later.................

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Post #: 3089

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/3/2020 12:19:20 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Sadly London is the same..... Some people still need to work and can't work from home. So what do they do? Cut down on the number of trains and tubes running. Okay.....

Kinda startin to wonder if we either do just that now, or do it later.................