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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:06:14 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

When the US imposed a travel ban on China early on (January 29), Joe Biden and many other Democrat politicians and the press said the President was racist and xenophobic. (By the way, now that they are all calling for that level of response, they haven't apologized but instead criticize the president for not acting earlier.)

warspite1

And one wonders why politicians of all denominations get such a bad press. Same as it ever was and will be - different country, same dumb, narrow-minded focus.

It's why I no longer have any faith in this self-indulgent, self-centred, uncaring (except about No.1) mob of charlatans.


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3391
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:06:18 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 2024
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline


quote:

warspite1

Why is the US States situation more complicated than the German Lander?

For the avoidance of doubt that is a genuine question.


Constitution at a guess.

But I really don't know, but Germany hasn't had any issues at all with the German governments decisions.



_____________________________


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Post #: 3392
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:13:57 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Are all of the EU 'states' acting as one?

warspite1

No one appears to be acting as one - and that is a big part of the problem. Not within Republics, within the EU - hell, not even within a 'United' Kingdom. A new member of the Labour party is elected and all he wants to do is slag off the mistakes of the past; while this thing is busting world economies, hey let's all waste time blaming China instead of focusing all energies on the problem.... the blame and recrimination can follow AFTER this thing gets sorted. But this needs to be sorted quickly because at the moment the cure is just as frightening as the disease.


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



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Post #: 3393
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:14:48 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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Plasma transfusion. A very old idea.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763983

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 3394
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:15:28 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled



quote:

warspite1

Why is the US States situation more complicated than the German Lander?

For the avoidance of doubt that is a genuine question.


Constitution at a guess.

But I really don't know, but Germany hasn't had any issues at all with the German governments decisions.


warspite1

But my understanding (I may be wrong) is that the Lander all go off and do their own thing too - Federal Government input is more limited. And Germany appear to be doing okay (certainly if measured by the death count).


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 3395
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:17:26 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
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Busted.

https://twitter.com/CathCalderwood1/status/1246740796763787266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fworld%2Fscottish-medical-officer-cautioned-after-breaking-her-own-lockdown-advice

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 3396
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:19:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Here's the situation with respect to leading countries.

The USA currently has 28 deaths per million.

We are BENEATH the curve on the model posted by Erik Rutens a few days back that shows a total of 93k mortalities over five months.

That will be about the same as the 2018-19 five-month flu season (80k, per Chickenboy's posts some days back).

That's more than 10x less than early estimates. Others (I think JohnD) have noted that's because of the countermeasures in place. IE, in our federal system, the steps taken have had a dramatic impact.






Attachment (1)

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Post #: 3397
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:20:10 PM   
ITAKLinus

 

Posts: 630
Joined: 2/22/2018
From: Italy
Status: offline
Today's data from Italy:

- +525 deaths
- +2.972 infected
- -61 people with symptoms
- -17 people in ICUs

_____________________________

Francesco

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 3398
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:21:02 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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Study identifies characteristics of patients with fatal COVID-19
·April 4, 2020

Summary: Based on data from COVID-19 patients from Wuhan, China, that died as a result of the infection, researchers have identified many symptom commonalities the patients shared.
Source: American Thoracic Society

quote:

“The greatest number of deaths in our cohort were in males over 50 with non-communicable chronic diseases,” stated the authors. “We hope that this study conveys the seriousness of COVID-19 and emphasizes the risk groups of males over 50 with chronic comorbid conditions including hypertension (high blood pressure), coronary heart disease and diabetes.”

The researchers examined the medical records of 85 patients who had died, and recorded information on their medical histories, exposures to coronavirus, additional chronic diseases they had (comorbidities), symptoms, laboratory findings, CT scan results and clinical management. Statistical analyses were then done.

The median age of these patients was 65.8, and 72.9 percent were men. Their most common symptoms were fever, shortness of breath (dyspnea) and fatigue.

Hypertension, diabetes and coronary heart disease were the most common comorbidities. A little over 80 0 percent of patients had very low counts of eosinophils (cells that are reduced in severe respiratory infections) on admission. Complications included respiratory failure, shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and cardiac arrhythmia, among others. Most patients received antibiotics, antivirals and glucocorticoids (types of steroids). Some were given intravenous immunoglobulin or interferon alpha-2b.

The researchers noted: “The effectiveness of medications such as antivirals or immunosuppressive agents against COVID-19 is not completely known. Perhaps our most significant observation is that while respiratory symptoms may not develop until a week after presentation, once they do there can be a rapid decline, as indicated by the short duration between time of admission and death (6.35 days on average) in our study.”


https://neurosciencenews.com/fatal-coronavirus-characteristics-16077/

It seems to me that part of the problem with the treatment was the use of steroids which is now known to be contraindicated for CoViD-19.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Footslogger)
Post #: 3399
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:24:26 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Busted.

https://twitter.com/CathCalderwood1/status/1246740796763787266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fworld%2Fscottish-medical-officer-cautioned-after-breaking-her-own-lockdown-advice
warspite1

Please see post 3355


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 3400
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:24:58 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Here's the New York chart from the site linked to by Erik Rutens: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Five days to peak. Good luck, Empire Staters! All of us are pulling for you.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/5/2020 4:25:47 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3401
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:29:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Daily totals for Italy just posted. Significant drop in mortality!

Hey, Italy, everyone's pulling for you!**

**As repeatedly said in here, "As Italy goes, so goes the world." First Italy flattened yet the numbers held stubbornly high. Finally, finally, a marked trend of decline.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3402
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:31:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Daily mortality chart in Italy, through yesterday. Today's 525 is a big step in the right direction.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 3403
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:46:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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That's the lowest mortality level since March 19 in Italy.

The worst of Italy's bell curve began around March 15. IIRC, Italy regally began imposing countermeasures around March 10-12 or thereabouts. Not early enough to stop what was coming but no doubt having a major affect.

To an extent, the chart shows that after imposition of strict countermeasures there was a period of about four really tough weeks (allowing for high tallies, though hopefully declining, in days to come).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3404
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:46:55 PM   
durnedwolf


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What I also like about this link https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections is that it shows what the states are implementing and when they implemented it. There will be an opportunity later to do a good after-action report on what worked best and perhaps identify a best strategy for our states in the case of future pandemics.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by durnedwolf -- 4/5/2020 4:47:31 PM >


_____________________________


DW

I try to live by two words - tenacity and gratitude. Tenacity gets me where I want to go and gratitude ensures I'm not angry along the way. - Henry Winkler.

The great aim of education is not knowledge but action. - Herbert Spencer

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3405
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:53:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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New York is projected to have 16,250 mortalities (per the Erik Rutens-linked site, given above), peaking in about five days. I think that's about 833/M. They're fighting hard and facing some real hurdles given population density.

Georgia is projected to have 3,250 mortalities, or about 306/M.






(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3406
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 4:56:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
California is projected to have 5,068 deaths, or about 127.7/M.

California got bushwhacked early and is doing comparatively remarkably.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3407
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:00:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Just for the heck of it, I also checked a random state mentioned earlier. Oklahoma is projected to have 1,419 deaths, or 32/M.

Given that, Oklahoma seems capable of handling it's situation. It's going better than California, Georgia and New York.**

**There are complicating factors - perhaps OK's mortality would be lower if it did differently. But it is doing things it deems prudent and is outperforming some other jurisdictions. Seemingly, they've earned the right to handle it as they see fit.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3408
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:12:03 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You're pulling long hours. Good luck. Keep safe. No quarantine for you!


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Er, do you mean John Dillworth, or is there a John Dillman?



YES. Thanks, 16hr workday.




Thankyou CR. Evey time I feel the slightest discomfort or cough I think Yep I got it. I tell staff and patients "No Sad Talk." I tell myself that even more. I even feel ANGER. Not sure at who or what.

Anger comes from fear. In this case, the fear comes from our feeling of helplessness - that we have little or no control over what happens.
This is more pronounced in people like medical personnel who feel responsible for others. In contrast, I feel little fear or anger because I am responsible for only myself and I think I am keeping myself safe.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 3409
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:15:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Excerpt from NPR show a couple of days ago, given below with link here: https://www.npr.org/2020/04/03/826522334/states-without-coronavirus-lockdown-orders-are-under-scrutiny

Those are states with a few big cities and a lot of open land. Projected mortality rates for them:

1. Arkansas - 206/M
2. Iowa - 480/M
3. Nebraska - 235/M
4. North Dakota - 221/M
5. South Dakota - 231/M

Four of these five are doing better than Georgia and all are doing better than New York.

I'm glad Georgia has a statewide mandate but I don't see any evidence presented here or in preceding posts that people in, say, North Dakota aren't capable of handling this as they see fit.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/5/2020 5:20:12 PM >

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Post #: 3410
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:18:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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I did those calculations by hand, searching the COVID-19 website for mortality projections and Google for state populations (as of 2019). The info doesn't come already-prepared from a source. It took a long time but I believe the calculations are accurate.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/5/2020 5:19:02 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3411
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:20:55 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Did Bill Gates Just Reveal the Reason Behind the Lock-Downs?
Apr 4, 2020


https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/04/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-the-reason-behind-the-lock-downs/


"On March 24 Bill Gates gave a highly revelatory 50-minute interview (above) to Chris Anderson. Anderson is the Curator of TED, the non-profit that runs the TED Talks."

""It appears that rather than let the population be exposed to the virus and most develop antibodies that give them natural, long-lasting immunity to COVID-19, Gates and his colleagues far prefer to create a vast, hugely expensive, new system of manufacturing and selling billions of test kits, and in parallel very quickly developing and selling billions of antivirals and vaccines." "

" It appears" marks the story as an opinion piece. Unless Gates came right out and said that is a business strategy they were following, I highly doubt the veracity of the claim. The "pro-herd immunity" crowd seem to discount the cost in deaths, sometimes because of ageism.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 3412
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:20:56 PM   
RangerJoe


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Don’t Believe the COVID-19 Models
That’s not what they’re for.
April 2, 2020
the Atlantic

quote:

Modeling an exponential process necessarily produces a wide range of outcomes. In the case of COVID-19, that’s because the spread of the disease depends on exactly when you stop cases from doubling. Even a few days can make an enormous difference. In Italy, two similar regions, Lombardy and Veneto, took different approaches to the community spread of the epidemic. Both mandated social distancing, but only Veneto undertook massive contact tracing and testing early on. Despite starting from very similar points, Lombardy is now tragically overrun with the disease, having experienced roughly 7,000 deaths and counting, while Veneto has managed to mostly contain the epidemic to a few hundred fatalities. Similarly, South Korea and the United States had their first case diagnosed on the same day, but South Korea undertook massive tracing and testing, and the United States did not. Now South Korea has only 162 deaths, and an outbreak that seems to have leveled off, while the U.S. is approaching 4,000 deaths as the virus’s spread accelerates.


https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3413
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:24:03 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

When the US imposed a travel ban on China early on (January 29), Joe Biden and many other Democrat politicians and the press said the President was racist and xenophobic.

No, Biden did no such thing. Trump said Biden did that, but he didn't. Please source the quote Dan, because it didn't happen. Since you opened that can of worms I got a flash for you. Trump lies......every day, almost every time he opens his mouth. He lies. https://www.statesman.com/news/20200330/fact-check-did-biden-call-trump-lsquoxenophobicrsquo-for-china-travel-restrictions

BTW, what would you think if I told you Trump is golfing, right now.....not 100% sure, but they put a lid on the press for the day. We shall know soon enough.

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3414
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:24:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
[To Ranger:] Right, projections are projections. But that's the one many seem to be relying on. And, so far, the daily totals have mostly come in UNDER the projection.'

Since the original projection was 1.7 million, then 100k to 240k, and now 93k, I think they're zeroing in better and better.

Things may change, for better or worse, but that seems to be a respected source at the moment.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/5/2020 5:25:41 PM >

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 3415
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:25:18 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

When the US imposed a travel ban on China early on (January 29), Joe Biden and many other Democrat politicians and the press said the President was racist and xenophobic.

No, Biden did no such thing. Trump said Biden did that, but he didn't. Please source the quote Dan, because it didn't happen. Since you opened that can of worms I got a flash for you. Trump lies......every day, almost every time he opens his mouth. He lies. https://www.statesman.com/news/20200330/fact-check-did-biden-call-trump-lsquoxenophobicrsquo-for-china-travel-restrictions

BTW, what would you think if I told you Trump is golfing, right now.....not 100% sure, but they put a lid on the press for the day. We shall know soon enough.



BTW, here is Bidens quote “We are in the midst of a crisis with the coronavirus. We need to lead the way with science — not Donald Trump’s record of hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering. He is the worst possible person to lead our country through a global health emergency.”

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 3416
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:31:11 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
John, I haven't listened to Trump, except a couple of news blurbs some weeks ago. I was relying upon reports I've heard but they may not have gotten it exactly right. I apologize if it wasn't exactly right but they semed to at least be in the ballpark: "...Biden has not directly said that the travel restriction was xenophobic. He has used that phrase in reference to Trump and his handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Biden’s campaign told PolitiFact that Biden’s tweets were not specific to the restrictions on people coming from China."

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200330/fact-check-did-biden-call-trump-lsquoxenophobicrsquo-for-china-travel-restrictions

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 3417
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:32:19 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[To Ranger:] Right, projections are projections. But that's the one many seem to be relying on. And, so far, the daily totals have mostly come in UNDER the projection.'

Since the original projection was 1.7 million, then 100k to 240k, and now 93k, I think they're zeroing in better and better.

Things may change, for better or worse, but that seems to be a respected source at the moment.


True, actual numbers are down but that is because of the actions that have been taken. That is in the article. It gives various estimates bases on no activity or various activities. But some salacious people take the extreme numbers and quote those without the context. In other words, since the estimates are going down, what is being done is working. As well as better treatment protocols.

Joe

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3418
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:33:36 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
Status: offline
quote:

least be in the ballpark:
Except you reported the word racist was used. Now racist is a pretty charged word and you reported that it was used.....See the difference?

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 3419
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/5/2020 5:34:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Right. That's why I'm using that source. It takes into account current countermeasures to adjust projections. So it's the best date we have to go on, to my knowledge.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 3420
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