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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 1:45:19 PM

warspite1

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The Swedish experiment is interesting. And now the numbers are starting to rise.....

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Post #: 4051

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 2:06:31 PM

Canoerebel

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There have been many media stories the past ten days that the American South is taking it on the chin, including the one excerpted below. To an extent this has been reflected in here with numerous comments, contentions and viewpoints.

Turns out the contention is mostly wrong.

Georgia, our 8th most populous state, is currently 10th in mortality per million. Florida, 3rd most populous, is 21st. North Carolina, 9th most populous, is 42nd.

Louisiana is problematic: 25th most populous but 3rd highest mortality per million. And Mississippi is taking a hit: 35th but 17th highest mortality.

The other southern states are doing comparatively well, very well or about even (population rank/morality per M):

Alabama, at 24 is 26th.
Kentucky, at 26 is 24th
South Carolina, at 23 is 28th.
Tennessee, at 16 is 31st.
Arkansas, at 34 is 43rd.
Virginia, at 12 is 35th.

These numbers will fluctuate but, as they currently stand, the narrative presented has been wrong. Very wrong.

As we progress through this thing here in the US, I'm more thankful than ever that we have a federal system that somewhat pushes down power and responsibility. I'm glad my county called shots for me for a long time; then my state; and that the situation hasn't reached the point where a nationwide one-size-fits-all mandate had to be imposed.

The South is doing doggone well.

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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/9/2020 2:13:02 PM >

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Post #: 4052

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 2:25:31 PM

Canoerebel

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One more example: https://undark.org/2020/03/23/in-the-american-south-covid-19-could-find-fertile-ground/

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Post #: 4053

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 2:29:03 PM

Wuffer

Posts: 402
Joined: 6/16/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Coronavirus And National Parks: What's Closed
April 8th, 2020 6:37pm

https://www.nationalparkstraveler.org/2020/04/coronavirus-and-national-parks-whats-closed

I read a article yesterday that stated there was trespassing and vandalism going on in some parks.

This is what I fear most: Some a$$holes hiding in the spawning areas while killing and selling everything.

In Berlin fishing was first allowed, than banned the next day, than again allowed but only spinfishing and moving around until finally they capitulated and everything is as usual :-))

Friends confirmed that the huge population of the city's wild boars are in the gardens every night, while we have another severe swine flu outbreak some 200 km/miles away in western Poland. Nature strikes back.

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Post #: 4054

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 2:40:20 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

There have been many media stories the past ten days that the American South is taking it on the chin, including the one excerpted below

I read the article and it seems to be about the unique threat to the age of the victims, not so much as the numbers of the victims and uses statistics to back up their assertions. Additionally, the article is over a week old, and speculative. As usual solid reporting from the Atlantic.

"The same age range in Georgia accounts for 17 percent of all deaths. By comparison, the same age group accounts for only about 10 percent of all deaths in Colorado, and 6 percent of all deaths in Washington State. These statistics suggest that middle-aged and working-age adults in the two southern states are at much greater risk than their counterparts elsewhere; for some reason, they are more likely to die from COVID-19."

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 4/9/2020 2:42:25 PM >

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Post #: 4055

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 2:43:53 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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The article is wide ranging but includes assertions like this: "The coronavirus is advancing quickly across the American South." Only it hasn't, from a death/M measure.

Other articles have done the same. The media has picked up the narrative and portrayed it in that general way rather than in more narrowly confined way. They're just wrong. I wonder if anybody will simply say, "You know, that has been out there and it does appear to be wrong."

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/9/2020 2:51:01 PM >

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Post #: 4056

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 2:47:01 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

"You know, that has been out there and it does appear to be wrong."

So a higher percentage of young people are not dying in the south than in other parts of the country? Cite your source please

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Post #: 4057

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 2:48:26 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Another quote from The Atlantic: "The slow response from those [Southern] governors will be even more ruinous in a region with so many challenges." That was with reference to many of the states we now now are doing comparatively well. Those kinds of reports helped foster the discussion in here last week about how the states were responding, with various strong expressions of opinion about Georgia and others.

Ruinous?

Based on the current data, they got it wrong.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/9/2020 3:21:44 PM >

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Post #: 4058

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:05:39 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

"The slow response from those [Southern] governors will be even more ruinous in a region with so many challenges."

Well Louisiana let Mardi Gras go on and is reaping the whirlwind and Florida was among the last states to impose strict isolation restrictions so I think that we might want to let this play out, no? Or are you ready to declare victory for Louisiana and Florida?

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Post #: 4059

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:12:36 PM

witpqs

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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I just found a nugget I thought would be too elusive for retrieval. A memory from more than 15 years ago, but I found it in the dusty archives of the internet. It flies contrary to expectations, and relates to some of our previous discussions, so here it is.

The Drudge Report (for those of you unfamiliar) posts an accumulation of links to news stories from various sources. For much of its existence it was widely perceived as right wing. But UCLA and other schools did a study (in 2003, I just learned) that rated it as centrist, of all things. Other sources (New York Times) received different ratings.

Here's the link to the study: https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty_pages/romain.wacziarg/mediapapers/GrosecloseMilyo.pdf

For clarity: I am not a fan of The Drudge Report.

That paper is almost old enough to vote. I don't think it should be used in a current context.

No, things are even more extreme now. It's so obvious just reading and listening to them.

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Post #: 4060

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:12:47 PM

Canoerebel

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I clearly qualified my assessment (above) regarding the possibility that things are subject to change. They are, no doubt.

But it's been a week since we discussed this first and things haven't fluctuated much if at all. The situation is basically the same. The South is doing comparatively well. And according to the University of Washington projections, that won't change. Including Florida, which is projected to have 4,357 deaths. That's 207/M. If that holds it can finish no worse than 2nd (it's population rank is #3) even if no other states have a single additional mortality. It's likely to finish considerably down the list.

The narrative has been wrong and is projected to be wrong.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/9/2020 3:27:19 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:14:10 PM

MakeeLearn

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M*I*SS*I*SS*I*PP*I

https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:17:40 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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The WHO head.
World Health Organisation's 'China centric' leader launches bizarre attack on Taiwan

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:23:23 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

The WHO head.
World Health Organisation's 'China centric' leader launches bizarre attack on Taiwan

quote:

�This (racial) attack came from Taiwan,� he said.

I could not find it.???

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Post #: 4064

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:35:40 PM

MakeeLearn

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The South is fully prepared...

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:38:39 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Coronavirus May �Reactivate� in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says
April 9, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

"The coronavirus may be �reactivating� in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea�s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC."

My understanding is that they still have the virus but are not infectious.

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Post #: 4066

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:39:50 PM

MakeeLearn

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Coronavirus May �Reactivate� in Cured Patients, Korean CDC Says
April 9, 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/09/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

"The coronavirus may be �reactivating� in people who have been cured of the illness, according to Korea�s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

About 51 patients classed as having been cured in South Korea have tested positive again, the CDC said in a briefing on Monday. Rather than being infected again, the virus may have been reactivated in these people, given they tested positive again shortly after being released from quarantine, said Jeong Eun-kyeong, director-general of the Korean CDC."

My understanding is that they still have the virus but are not infectious.

Here to stay.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/9/2020 3:40:20 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:53:45 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

The WHO head.
World Health Organisation's 'China centric' leader launches bizarre attack on Taiwan

quote:

�This (racial) attack came from Taiwan,� he said.

I could not find it.???

They played a video of his remarks which I did not watch.

The background is that he was elected to head WHO on the backing of China, and WHO has been refusing to work with Taiwan since. A week or two ago there was a news item where one of the top doctors with WHO was being interviewed and was asked a question about Taiwan. He literally ignored the question, as in silence, no response. When asked to respond he suggested they just move on with the next question. Given China's years-long campaign around the world to induce (usually financially) countries to break ties with Taiwan, and China's key role in getting the current WHO head into that position, it's pretty clear this is just a manifestation of that same effort in the WHO. Quite shameful.

< Message edited by witpqs -- 4/9/2020 3:54:28 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:54:03 PM

durnedwolf

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From: USA
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A few maps to ponder for the US of A:

Attachment (1)

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:55:29 PM

durnedwolf

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Here's the link to the maps: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/time-series/demo/older-population/Figure%201%20Population%20Aged%2065%20and%20Over.pdf

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Post #: 4070

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:56:28 PM

durnedwolf

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From: USA
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https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-cities/

Texas will be interesting to watch. They have 4 cities in the top 20 and they did not implement the stay-@-home until April 2nd.

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Post #: 4071

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 3:58:53 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Thanks, DW. By this map you wouldn't expect the NYC metro area to be particularly vulnerable, making me think other factors (population density, in particular) were primary culprits.

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

A few maps to ponder for the US of A:

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Post #: 4072

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:05:34 PM

22sec

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From: Jackson, MS
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

"The slow response from those [Southern] governors will be even more ruinous in a region with so many challenges."

Well Louisiana let Mardi Gras go on and is reaping the whirlwind and Florida was among the last states to impose strict isolation restrictions so I think that we might want to let this play out, no? Or are you ready to declare victory for Louisiana and Florida?

Fat Tuesday was February 25, which if I�m remembering correctly there was no concern expressed anywhere that we needed to shut down anything. It was fifteen days before the President�s Oval Office speech. Also, if the disease was already spreading during the height of Mardi Gras can we not speculate that it has been here for a while, and that we were surviving just fine before the widespread implementation of testing?

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Post #: 4073

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:06:42 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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This map adds a lot of context when paired with the preceding one. Elderly population in NYC metro doesn't appear that high from a percentage standpoint but the gross numbers are high.

quote:

ORIGINAL: durnedwolf

Here's the link to the maps: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/time-series/demo/older-population/Figure%201%20Population%20Aged%2065%20and%20Over.pdf

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Post #: 4074

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:07:17 PM

durnedwolf

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To Canoe regarding http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4792154

Look at the 8+ million for New York City...

Things that make me go hmmmm.

My WAG is that the cities will get hit the hardest. 8 million in New York and then LA @ 4 million. After that the size of the cities drop off markedly.

< Message edited by durnedwolf -- 4/9/2020 4:09:58 PM >

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Post #: 4075

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:11:20 PM

Lokasenna

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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"I think what we're going to have embedded and imprinted in us forever is the realization that something as catastrophic as what the world is experiencing now can happen," Fauci said.

WHAT THE #$@%. Have you ever read a history book?!

catastrophic????????????????? REALLY?

"embedded and imprinted" Now we are getting to the point!

The impacts are (relatively) catastrophic. When you're forced to choose between government spending at levels not seen since WW2 (would that classify as "catastrophic" to you?) so that people can feasibly practice social distancing (which is itself an extreme behavioral change) without starving to death, or door #2 with the realistic potential for a few million deaths (>0.5% of the population) over the course of a few months - those are catastrophic stakes. For reference, the total American dead in WW2 was just over 400,000 which was 0.32% of the total population.

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Post #: 4076

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:11:24 PM

Canoerebel

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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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22sec, that's a good point.

In the same vein, Albany, GA, has received scrutiny, including in here. In Albany, everything began with two widely attended funerals that took place before anybody had a grip on this thing (a bunch of siblings from out of state came). It spread from there giving that corner a notable outbreak. It was more a timing issue rather than a countermeasures issue, because at that early date widespread or major countermeasures weren't really in place in most of the US.

One of the funerals was on 2/29. See NYT story here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html

quote:

ORIGINAL: 22sec

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

"The slow response from those [Southern] governors will be even more ruinous in a region with so many challenges."

Well Louisiana let Mardi Gras go on and is reaping the whirlwind and Florida was among the last states to impose strict isolation restrictions so I think that we might want to let this play out, no? Or are you ready to declare victory for Louisiana and Florida?

Fat Tuesday was February 25, which if I�m remembering correctly there was no concern expressed anywhere that we needed to shut down anything. It was fifteen days before the President�s Oval Office speech. Also, if the disease was already spreading during the height of Mardi Gras can we not speculate that it has been here for a while, and that we were surviving just fine before the widespread implementation of testing?

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/9/2020 4:13:56 PM >

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Post #: 4077

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:13:21 PM

Lokasenna

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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

What part of 'self' having nothing to do with 'we' is too complex a concept for you?

I understood fully the context in which you were incorrectly applying the term 'self moderating'.

Regardless of any need, your presumption that it needs to be you assuming the mantle of moderator is what you fail to grasp as being just as inappropriate as the behavior you are assailing.

I'm not, for a minute, disputing the inappropriateness of some posts, including mine, just taking strong exception with your self appointment as sheriff.

1) "Self" was in reference to the full group, not me (or anyone else) as an individual. "We" are self-moderating is still correct. I don't understand how this is a complex concept.

2) I'm not the only person to have "self appointed" as (a) sheriff. Others have done so, in a far nastier manner than I have done. By your own admission, some of your own posts have been sheriff-like (OK, you didn't just say this in so many words, but they were). Calling me out for providing pushback, even if it is just lampshading a post, is intrinsically hypocritical.

We are self moderating is an inane statement that has no meaning.

The correct structure for what you are failing miserably to convey is 'each of us is (are/should be/needs to be) self moderating'.

Individual actions can only be taken by individuals, not groups.

'We' can't be doing anything that is self actionable.

As I am contributing nothing of value to this thread and find myself reacting negatiively to provocations I have blocked the provacatuers and will endeavour to remain silent from here on.

You are taking an extremely narrow definition of the word "self" to mean one individual only. A community can absolutely be "self-(verb)." I don't know why you are disputing this.

Later tater.

(in reply to HansBolter)

Post #: 4078

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:15:58 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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Slightly OT: I know we are all keeping open more tabs than usual due to following all this news. There are updates to both Chrome and Firefox. Set your configuration to re-open tabs when starting your browser and update/re-launch your browser to get the upgrades. They are security fixes.

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Post #: 4079

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/9/2020 4:16:39 PM

Lokasenna

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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

This is a novel situation, so we've had to err on the side of caution.

But we've lost a fair bit of context, judging from some of the quotes and headlines posted today and in past days.

During the Spanish Flu pandemic, the US scuffered 195,000 mortalities in October 1918. That's well over 15x the number lost thus far and 3x the number we're projected to lose through August. In the 1918-19 pandemic, the US suffered around 675k mortality, 10x the projection for this outbreak through August. And we were involved in WWI at the same time.

I haven't crunched the numbers for UK, France, Belgium, Germany and other countries but the hunch is that Flu and battle casualties far exceeded what we're enduring here.

This has been the single most gripping news event in decades. For Americans under 50, probably second only to 9-11 (and maybe, for some or many, this will eclipse that). It's a major event but too many drawing on the news and social media reports lack the proper context to measure this by.

I think it's important to note the differences in medical practice since then, and I think it's unwise to minimize either the danger of this virus or the extreme measures we have had to take so that it didn't kill even more people.

I submit that for Americans over the age of 40 but under the age of 50, the Berlin Wall coming down and everything to do with the "end of history" in 1990ish may have been a bigger news event.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 4080