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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 5:38:10 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline 		"How to Make China Pay" Nothing like a succinct headline, eh?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/how-to-make-china-pay/


From a geopolitical standpoint this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to hurt the CCP aspirations of owning the entire world and telling all the "big noses" what to do.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4321
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 5:46:35 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Another one I haven't seen, again with numbers by county on rollover. This is a per capita map of the US. Interesting that there are some real hotspots outside of major metropolitan areas.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html






Some of those hotspots are because people fled the urban areas to those places, bringing the virus with them.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4322
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 5:48:16 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Another one I haven't seen, again with numbers by county on rollover. This is a per capita map of the US. Interesting that there are some real hotspots outside of major metropolitan areas.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html




Some of those hotspots are because people fled the urban areas to those places, bringing the virus with them.


Undoubtedly. Or came back from college to their rural home. Or went on spring break. Or just decided it was a good idea to go to Mardi Gras or something.

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/10/2020 5:49:12 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4323
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 5:52:35 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Six homeowners, who reside the rest of the time in South Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, have backed the complaint, claiming the ban violates the "privileges and immunities" clause of the U.S. Constitution, which states that "The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several states."


What did I tell you? I saw this coming and I'm not even an American citizen.

Sadly, people everywhere (not only in the USA) fail to understand how with freedom comes responsibility. If you worsen this emergency because of your "freedoms", that's on you. "Freedom" is not a "Get out from jail for free" card.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4324
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 5:53:23 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"How to Make China Pay" Nothing like a succinct headline, eh?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/how-to-make-china-pay/


From a geopolitical standpoint this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to hurt the CCP aspirations of owning the entire world and telling all the "big noses" what to do.


How about requiring any defense items be made either in the US or its allies? How about requiring any Federal expenditures for medical items and such like also be included? With treaties so that the producers of such items not be allowed to be shut down like the Chinese did for the medical supply items that were exported?

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4325
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 5:57:05 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Six homeowners, who reside the rest of the time in South Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, have backed the complaint, claiming the ban violates the "privileges and immunities" clause of the U.S. Constitution, which states that "The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several states."


What did I tell you? I saw this coming and I'm not even an American citizen.

Sadly, people everywhere (not only in the USA) fail to understand how with freedom comes responsibility. If you worsen this emergency because of your "freedoms", that's on you. "Freedom" is not a "Get out from jail for free" card.


I agree. Citizenship also has obligations. Even noncitizens have obligations to whatever country that they are living in, for whatever reason that they are there.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to RFalvo69)
Post #: 4326
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:00:30 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"How to Make China Pay" Nothing like a succinct headline, eh?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/how-to-make-china-pay/


From a geopolitical standpoint this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to hurt the CCP aspirations of owning the entire world and telling all the "big noses" what to do.


How about requiring any defense items be made either in the US or its allies? How about requiring any Federal expenditures for medical items and such like also be included? With treaties so that the producers of such items not be allowed to be shut down like the Chinese did for the medical supply items that were exported?


Japan is paying a lot of money to bring a bunch of industry out of China.

Why is it in China in the first place?

Some may think the ubiquity of Chinese products is due to the abundance of cheap Chinese labor that brings down the production costs, but there is much more to it than that. In addition to its low labor costs, China has become known as "the world's factory" because of its strong business ecosystem, lack of regulatory compliance, low taxes and duties, and competitive currency practices. Here we review each of these key factors.

So is it actually feasible to bring industry back to the US or any country from the most important producer of goods in the world? In a free market the best quality at least expense usually wins.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 4/10/2020 6:05:42 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4327
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:00:48 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		Fauci: Coronavirus immunity cards for Americans are 'being discussed'

The proposal, already being implemented by German researchers, is under consideration in the United Kingdom and Italy.

04/10/2020

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/10/fauci-coronavirus-immunity-cards-for-americans-are-being-discussed-178784


"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, revealed Friday the federal government is considering issuing Americans certificates of immunity from the coronavirus, as the Trump administration works to better identify those who have been infected and restart the U.S. economy in the coming weeks.

"You know, that's possible," Fauci told CNN's "New Day," when asked whether he could imagine a time when people across the country carry such forms of identification."


"Asked Thursday about various methods of monitoring Americans who have come into contact with those who are infected, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said "people are looking at all the different modern technology that could be brought to bear to make contact tracing more efficient and effective."

"Are there more, if you will, say, tech-savvy ways to be more comprehensive in contact tracing versus the old fashioned way? You know, currently, these things are under aggressive evaluation," Redfield told NPR. "

_____________________________


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4328
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:02:13 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake




When the virus quiets down and becomes an established permanent reality there are going to be some turbulent times ahead



Yes.

_____________________________


(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4329
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:09:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		People must comply with the law, but what's wrong with anyone petitioning a court for a ruling on a contention about rights under the law? A judge should be able to determine if the complaint is legit or not. If the judge screws it up, there is the appeals process. This is one of the ways our constitutional republic works. I can't see anything wrong with homeowners anywhere filing a lawsuit to assert a sincerely held right, subjecting it to judicial scrutiny and rule.



quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Six homeowners, who reside the rest of the time in South Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, have backed the complaint, claiming the ban violates the "privileges and immunities" clause of the U.S. Constitution, which states that "The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several states."


What did I tell you? I saw this coming and I'm not even an American citizen.

Sadly, people everywhere (not only in the USA) fail to understand how with freedom comes responsibility. If you worsen this emergency because of your "freedoms", that's on you. "Freedom" is not a "Get out from jail for free" card.


I agree. Citizenship also has obligations. Even noncitizens have obligations to whatever country that they are living in, for whatever reason that they are there.


(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4330
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:14:30 PM   
RFalvo69


Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-coronavirus-pandemic-will-forever-alter-the-world-order-11585953005



Post-corona world order: What was, is not what will be
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/post-corona-world-order-what-was-it-not-what-will-it-be-622967



After The Coronavirus Passes, Your World Will Not Go Back To Normal
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/after-coronavirus-it-will-not-go-back-to-normal


"AIDS is trying to teach us a lesson. The lesson is that a health problem in any part of the world can rapidly become a health threat to many or all. A worldwide “early-warning system” is needed to detect quickly the eruption of new diseases or the unusual spread of old diseases. Without such a system, operating at a truly global level, we are essentially defenseless, relying on good luck to protect us."

Garrett, Laurie. The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance (p. 2). Macmillan (1994).

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4331
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:16:56 PM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
Status: offline 		The weather will help people stay inside for parts of the United States. Possibly Canada land as well although they like the cold there.

Snowstorm to unfold from Rockies to Great Lakes as temperatures plunge

quote:

Another plunge of cold, snowy weather across the northern tier of the United States this weekend will be Mother Nature's not-so-subtle reminder that winter isn't ready to quit just yet.

"Arctic air will spread across a large portion of the country by Monday," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. "The core of the cold will be just east of the Continental Divide across the Front Range and Plains into the Midwest, where temperatures will average 10-20 degrees below normal."

Temperatures may approach 30 degrees below normal in places such as Rapid City, South Dakota, and Denver, where forecasters say Easter Sunday will be colder than New Year's Day. Both cities had a high of 50 degrees Fahrenheit on Jan. 1, but are likely to have highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Sunday, April 12.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/snowstorm-to-unfold-from-rockies-to-great-lakes-as-temperatures-plunge/717575

Spring weather is so nice. April showers bring May flowers.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4332
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:17:02 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Fauci: Coronavirus immunity cards for Americans are 'being discussed'

The proposal, already being implemented by German researchers, is under consideration in the United Kingdom and Italy.

04/10/2020

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/10/fauci-coronavirus-immunity-cards-for-americans-are-being-discussed-178784


"Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, revealed Friday the federal government is considering issuing Americans certificates of immunity from the coronavirus, as the Trump administration works to better identify those who have been infected and restart the U.S. economy in the coming weeks.

"You know, that's possible," Fauci told CNN's "New Day," when asked whether he could imagine a time when people across the country carry such forms of identification."


"Asked Thursday about various methods of monitoring Americans who have come into contact with those who are infected, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said "people are looking at all the different modern technology that could be brought to bear to make contact tracing more efficient and effective."

"Are there more, if you will, say, tech-savvy ways to be more comprehensive in contact tracing versus the old fashioned way? You know, currently, these things are under aggressive evaluation," Redfield told NPR. "


Whatever it is, my bet is that it has a chip or a digital component, possibly a scannable code, to check the profile if questioned for any reason. Could be another way our data is collected and distributed, used, abused.

The UK's health secretary, Matt Hancock, has suggested "something like an immunity certificate or a wristband" in the future. The premise is that those who have already contracted and overcome the virus are no longer at risk of spreading it and should be free to work, and would get some proof of this.

That is why biometric ID cards have been proposed. However, the UK doesn't have an identity card system.

Theresa May, then the Home Secretary, repealed the legislation, telling parliament: "The national identity card scheme represents the worst of government. "It is intrusive and bullying, ineffective and expensive. It is an assault on individual liberty which does not promise a greater good." Introducing such a system today - even to help find a way through the devastating coronavirus crisis - would be likely to again face significant opposition.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-could-biometric-id-cards-offer-the-uk-a-lockdown-exit-strategy-11970628



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4333
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:24:39 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

"How to Make China Pay" Nothing like a succinct headline, eh?

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/how-to-make-china-pay/


From a geopolitical standpoint this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to hurt the CCP aspirations of owning the entire world and telling all the "big noses" what to do.


How about requiring any defense items be made either in the US or its allies? How about requiring any Federal expenditures for medical items and such like also be included? With treaties so that the producers of such items not be allowed to be shut down like the Chinese did for the medical supply items that were exported?


Japan is paying a lot of money to bring a bunch of industry out of China.

Why is it in China in the first place? Labor costs and quality.

So is it actually feasible to bring industry back to the US or any country from the most important producer of goods in the world? In a free market the best quality at least expense usually wins.


This is true but there are "strategic stockpiles" and there are many defense-related products that aren't allowed to be manufactured overseas.

The US needs a petroleum reserve (we have one)

Reserves of N-95 masks and face shields and gowns (we don't have one anymore)

Rare Earth minerals reserve (germanium, yttrium etc. etc) (we don't have)

Bombs, GPU units, cruise missiles (got those)

Nukes (got those)

Medicines (not enough)

Ventilators (not enough)


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4334
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:25:36 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		There isn't time to implement a major new program (creating, printing, distributing cards, for instance) in the U.S. before this season's pandemic ends, per current projections.

Most states are projected to be finished around or shortly after May 1. There's not enough time to do much between now and then. There will be moves to gradually ease restrictions in coming weeks. Slowly at first, then more quickly. Nobody will get too frisky before the situation in NYC metro is under control. That's the country's nerve center - we're not going to be at ease as long as it's locked in mortal battle.

Gradually, restrictions will ease. Authorities will look for any signs of flare-ups. The key will be to have enough medical capacity to jump on any eruptions.

During the summer, a lot of thought will be given to more long term solutions, especially if it seems likely another outbreak will occur in the fall.

There may be long term financial/economic/medical community repercussions beyond measure...or maybe not. I don't know. Barring a cascade effect - this triggering some kind of war - I don't foresee major lifestyle changes in my region.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/10/2020 6:26:52 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4335
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:29:51 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There isn't time to implement a major new program (creating, printing, distributing cards, for instance) in the U.S. before this season's pandemic ends, per current projections.

Most states are projected to be finished around or shortly after May 1. There's not enough time to do much between now and then. There will be moves to gradually ease restrictions in coming weeks. Slowly at first, then more quickly. Nobody will get too frisky before the situation in NYC metro is under control. That's the country's nerve center - we're not going to be at ease as long as it's locked in mortal battle.

Gradually, restrictions will ease. Authorities will look for any signs of flare-ups. The key will be to have enough medical capacity to jump on any eruptions.

During the summer, a lot of thought will be given to more long term solutions, especially if it seems likely another outbreak will occur in the fall.

There may be long term financial/economic/medical community repercussions beyond measure...or maybe not. I don't know. Barring a cascade effect - this triggering some kind of war - I don't foresee major lifestyle changes in my region.



Keep a eye on left field.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4336
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:32:48 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		China will emerge from the coronavirus crisis stronger than the U.S., experts warn
March 28, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-will-emerge-from-the-coronavirus-crisis-stronger-than-the-us-experts-warn-2020-03-24

"The Chinese are in a much stronger position than they have been coming out of any recent global crisis,” Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, told MarketWatch.

“They own most of the global medical supply chain. They’ve basically contained the virus through technology-powered, authoritarian surveillance, and they’ve leveraged this success by providing aid to Europe and emerging markets,” in the fight against COVID-19.

Even as China’s economy has taken a large hit from the outbreak, and will continue to suffer from falling global demand as it spreads throughout Europe and the United States, the country does appear to be opening for business, with the city of Wuhan — where the outbreak began in December — scheduled to lift its lockdown next week. "

_____________________________


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4337
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:33:52 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

Most states are projected to be finished around or shortly after May 1.


Nothing is going to be "finished" in May. We probably don't have enough herd immunity yet. The virus will likely NEVER be eradicated from the human population but will become a permanent endemic coronavirus like the four we already have.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4338
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:35:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't mean finished in that sense. I mean new cases down to nil or next to it. States or portions thereof will gradually ease restrictions around then - or as soon as NYC is doing okay.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4339
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:35:42 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		China will emerge stronger after outbreak
2020-03-07

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/07/WS5e62f59ba31012821727d17f.html


"Despite my training and my profession pushing me to make assessments based on data, analysis and econometric models, for once I would like to rely on a set of intuitions and experiences, which derives from the 10 years I lived in China, and venture to make a prediction: China will not only rise from this health emergency stronger than before, but also take advantage of these months of crisis to accelerate its social and economic transformation."

"China does more and speaks less"

_____________________________


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4340
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:36:22 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

China will emerge from the coronavirus crisis stronger than the U.S., experts warn
March 28, 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-will-emerge-from-the-coronavirus-crisis-stronger-than-the-us-experts-warn-2020-03-24

"The Chinese are in a much stronger position than they have been coming out of any recent global crisis,” Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, told MarketWatch.

“They own most of the global medical supply chain. They’ve basically contained the virus through technology-powered, authoritarian surveillance, and they’ve leveraged this success by providing aid to Europe and emerging markets,” in the fight against COVID-19.

Even as China’s economy has taken a large hit from the outbreak, and will continue to suffer from falling global demand as it spreads throughout Europe and the United States, the country does appear to be opening for business, with the city of Wuhan — where the outbreak began in December — scheduled to lift its lockdown next week. "


In the short run that is true because we are at least 2 months behind but there is going to be a global price to pay for China

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4341
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:42:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		UK projections revised down substantially.

The likelihood of this was discussed right here a few hours ago.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4342
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:46:23 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		US military researchers call for use of privateers against China

10 Apr, 2020

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3079303/us-military-researchers-call-use-privateers-against-china

"The United States should encourage the use of privateers to fight Chinese aggression at sea, according to a pair of articles in magazine produced by the US Naval Institute.

The reports – titled “Unleash the Privateers!” and “US Privateering Is Legal”, and published in the April issue of Proceedings – suggest the US government issue letters of marque – a commission authorising privately owned ships (privateers) to capture enemy merchant ships.

The authors – Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Brandon Schwartz, a former CSIS media relations manager – said that China’s larger merchant fleet represented an asymmetric vulnerability with the US, and an attack on China’s global trade would undermine its entire economy and threaten its stability."

_____________________________


(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4343
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:46:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		US projection just revised, nudging up by about 1k.

Monday a.m. it dropped 10k; Wednesday a.m. it dropped another 20k; today it nudged up 1k.

Seemingly that indicates the model is currently handling data well.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4344
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:46:49 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't mean finished in that sense. I mean new cases down to nil or next to it. States or portions thereof will gradually ease restrictions around then - or as soon as NYC is doing okay.


NC is not projected to peak with new cases until April 26th. That's just over 2 weeks from now. If the peak is followed by a smooth, traditional bell curve in NC it means things will be the same as today on or around May 15th. That's not anywhere near over.

All of those projections rely, of course, on well behaved social distancing obedience. I strongly suspect that the compliance level a month from now will be significantly lower than today. I just don't see any reason to believe this (meaning severe restrictions on movement) will be a short term event.

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4345
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:49:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Univ. of Washington projections are bullish for NC - not zeroing out on May 1, but low and nearing zero a few days later.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 4346
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:50:35 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline 		How about predictions for new cases in NC?

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4347
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:52:07 PM   
USSAmerica


Posts: 18715
Joined: 10/28/2002
From: Graham, NC, USA
Status: offline 		The extremely good news for NC is that the predicted peaks should not overwhelm the hospital and ICU capacity. We're fortunate to have a large number of hospitals in the region.

_____________________________

Mike

"Good times will set you free" - Jimmy Buffett

"They need more rum punch" - Me


Artwork by The Amazing Dixie

(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 4348
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:52:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		We're going to have to ease off on restrictions gradually. Like Denmark and Austria are about to do (and they're efforts will serve as good pathfinder studies).

If new cases are down near zero, and if the situation is under control in most/all metro areas, folks will insist on a sensible easing of restrictions to get restarted. (How long would folks go with few or no new cases? Not long.)

The key will be the ability, or perceived ability, to spot hot spots and jump on them with plenty of medical capacity to handle things.

And if the virus continues to target mostly older folks and folks with underlying issues, that's part of the map to how we get where we need to be.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4349
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:53:20 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		That's included in the modeling, Mike. The zeroing out of mortality in May is a reflection that new cases drop in tandem.


quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

How about predictions for new cases in NC?


(in reply to USSAmerica)
Post #: 4350
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