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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 6:56:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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The projection for New York. Note the level of mortality by May 1.

Many states (not all) are showing similar results. At or near zero by May 1.




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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:03:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Georgia was just revised, bumping up in projections for (1) peak day - now 17 days away instead of 12; and (2) mortality - now 336/M, which is something like 100 over where it was.

I think the NC and NY graphs, posted above, also reflect recent revisions, meaning they may be current. But other states may have been just updated or in the process of doing so. Check states of interest, here: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4768436&mpage=146&key=




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Post #: 4352
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:04:58 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Just noticed the U. Washington projects today to be the peak day in the US. See chart posted on previous page.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4353
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:08:22 PM   
JohnDillworth


Posts: 3100
Joined: 3/19/2009
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quote:

I don't mean finished in that sense. I mean new cases down to nil or next to it. States or portions thereof will gradually ease restrictions around then - or as soon as NYC is doing okay.


As long as we stay vigilant. I mean the whole country. I fear whats going to happen is we are going to try and open the country up again too soon and this is going to flare up again. I not only fear that, I fear that is likely. The only way out I see is to have a antibody test and test EVERYBODY, or at least everybody that wants to mingle in polite society. We can stop, start, fuss, think we know better but that is the only certain way out.....or at least until we have a vaccine. So you take a test, you get some sort of proof, you are clear to go to a place where, and this is where it gets funny......someone checks you for your certificate. Counterfeits are the least of our problems. This country has an independence streak that is going to be impossible to overcome. The Government taking your blood, issues certificates and keeping records? Can't see that really working. OK, plan B, keep things locked down until we get a vaccine. Vaguely possible but no guarantee you can make a vaccine for this. Heck, the pneumonia vaccine is fairly recent and they were looking for that a 100 years ago. Even if possible best case is 12-18 months and then you have to manufacture billions of doses .........so plan B is not terrific. So now we are up to plan C........Heard immunity. That will absolutely work, hell, it's going to happen anyway. But at what cost? Sorry, having a perfectly ****ty shift but I'm really struggling to see whats next and be happy about it. And then there is the economy

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

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Post #: 4354
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:22:00 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Hey, we're pulling for you here (you'd see if you had time to scroll through 8k posts).


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Post #: 4355
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:24:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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We're going to have to balance things and come to decisions that may not be perfect. If new cases are low/zilch, if we monitor carefully for hot spots and re-institute full countermeasures when they occur, if the affected medical community could handle those, and if the most vulnerable population is those of certain categories (aged, complications, etc.), we're going to have to ease restrictions and resume things.

That's why Denmark, Austria (and possibly Italy, from what I've heard) will be so important to our understanding over coming weeks.

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Post #: 4356
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:31:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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A quick spin through the Univ. of Washington site suggested that there were revisions to projections for the US and the states today.

Due to time constraints, I've only looked at about 20 states. Quick glances at those suggested that there weren't major changes for NY, NJ or California, either for total mortality or for peak day. That's good!

In the southern states, there were some revisions. Many of them had peak days pushed further into the future (darn it). A number of them dropped in total mortality. Georgia got bumped the wrong way in both categories.

Since we discussed southern states yesterday, here's my quick notes (total mortality and then mortality/Million:

Tennessee: 612; 90/M
South Carolina: 572; 112/M
Alabama: 431; 88/M
Georgia: 3564; 336/M
Florida: 3999; 186/M
Mississippi: 407; 135/M
North carolina: 416; 40/M
Kentucky: 933; 307/M
Louisiana: 1,125; 245/M
Virginia: 830; 98/M
Arkansas: 199; 66/M

Take Arkansas, for example. If there are 199 total mortality; if cases per day drops to zero; if the 199 killed are high proportion elderly and co-morbid; if Denmark, Austria and others show that easing restrictions doesn't result in massive flair ups; if Arkansas medical community and emergency folks are ready to monitor hot spots and have capacity to handle them; and if the population understands countermeasures will be re-instated to handle hot spots...it would be hard to keep that state in lock down.

This assumed gradual easing, in all likelihood. Not, "Hey, lets go back to normal in fifteen days."

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4357
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:35:44 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Hey, we're pulling for you here (you'd see if you had time to scroll through 8k posts).


yeah you check out for a day and your a hundred post behind. I'm feeling the love, thanks

_____________________________

Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4358
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:37:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
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We love JohnD!


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Post #: 4359
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:42:19 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/nearly-90percent-of-people-hospitalized-for-covid-19-have-underlying-conditions-says-cdc/ar-BB12pf0p?li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."


Do you know how this and the previous post compare to Influenza mortality rates?


Given that ~60,000 people don't die from the flu in less than 6 months: higher.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4360
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:46:50 PM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nomad


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1


Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.


1) it comes from the National Review op-ed pages, so...

and

2) What a weird set of terms to use for a metaphor. First choosing bizarre images for comparison, and second setting up a false dichotomy.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4361
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:52:44 PM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?


A cry-baby no doubt.

The US as we knew them (pre-2008) are finished. You want to stop historical processes and that is not going to work eh. Yes, sure, an asteriod could hit Shanghai tomorrow. Or a mega tsunami swallow the whole US continental landmass for that matter. Or the aliens... or whatever...

The basic historical process is that capitalism has already migrated to the east. Do I need to say it? Power and strenght are where capitalism flourishes (China as we speak, are you following me, captain knucklehead?). Many people don't get this massive geopolitical shift going on under our very eyes. We are living interesting times no doubt.

There were various US. Pre civil war, you had a nation of free farmers. Post civil war, a robber barons' industrialised state. After FDR and WW2, the golden age, a nation with flourishing working and middle classes ;)

Well, reaganomics brought in fact the future proletarisation of these two classes (the middle class is in fact going to extinction as we speak). On the other hand US plutocrats made obscene fortunes, as per the plan eh.

So you're talking about an US that do not exist anymore in the first place. It's finito, kaputt, over. You seem to not grasp the most basic capitalist concepts. Capitalism demands one thing above everything else: cheap labour. No Chinese wall can stop this drive rofl Manufactures are not coming back, you naive souls... unless you accept Chinese (or Vietnamese, Mexican etc) wages. The most ironic fact is that ONLY socialism would have stopped this historical process. You're gunna luv capitalism's tendencies (which you do not even understand).

I have not the slightest doubt that your oligarchic masters will keep thriving selling their slices of paper until the world says "hey man, we don't want your slices of paper anymore" (munching their caviar with their Chinese, European counterparts), but the conditions that made possible post FDR's golden age have already disappeared: a healthy, sane working and middle classes. That WAS the real backbone of US prosperity and grandeur.

Oh, the last sign (of a serie of many signs). China knocks US from top spot in global patent race...

But perhaps the most clear sign of the state of decay is Mr Maduro's affair. It is well known that the Caribbean Sea always was a vital strategic zone. Well, looks like the US cannot even impose their will on this critical area (their hilarious puppet Guaidollar that is). Houston, we have a problem! And funny ignorant captain knucklehead here wants to force the Chinese to pay trillions HAHAHAHAHA poor troll who's not understood anything... keep braying, bigmouth, you're hilarious!



The Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing, and they've got a whole host of problems (economic and otherwise) domestically. Among other things.

You see this skepticism about anybody overtaking American dominance (no longer hegemony, if hegemony is even possible in the information age) reflected in the fact that one of the safest places (if not the safest place) for investors' money has been and remains US federal government bonds. Similarly, the US dollar remains strong.

Admittedly, this is probably more of an indictment of the economic attractiveness of other countries than it is a case of the US having no warts.

It doesn't look like the COVID-19 pandemic is going to change any of these dynamics, and may end up increasing the disparity between the US and other countries in the short term (and possibly medium term) as far as soft power is concerned.

(in reply to TulliusDetritus)
Post #: 4362
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 7:54:39 PM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

captain knucklehead


Is that not insulting?


Knucklehead has all kinds of definitions, not all of them insulting.

One can infer from the rest of the post what the poster thinks of certain issues and politicians, but there wasn't anything particularly combative about the content.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4363
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:00:25 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

There is a more deadly virus,,,

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.





https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2020/2/3/coronavirus-traffic-deaths-and-building-a-strong-town

I'll quote from his post (which is more about traffic fatalities than about viral pandemics):

quote:


If I told you that 32,000 died in auto-related incidents last year, we could all agree that was a senseless tragedy, something we should be doing far more to address. If I told you that, if we didn’t do anything, deaths would rise to 35,000 this year, you’d probably join me in dismay at this needless loss of life. However, if I told you that there was a chance that next year 10 million people would die from auto crashes, you (along with everyone else) would lose your mind. And you’d probably never drive or even go near a car.

Statistically, there is essentially zero chance that auto deaths will climb into the millions next year, and everyone understands that. Auto deaths are non-scalable. They can be quantified, understood, and even predicted from year-to-year with a respectable level of macro-precision.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4364
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:08:26 PM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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California might peak in the next few days.

Re-linking as the site is even more useful today - they added "scale to highlight" as an option.

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/




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Post #: 4365
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:23:10 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Smoking weed and coronavirus: Even occasional use raises risk of COVID-19 complications

quote:

If you're smoking weed to ease your stress during the coronavirus pandemic, experts say it's time to think twice.

Smoking marijuana, even occasionally, can increase your risk for more severe complications from Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

"What happens to your airways when you smoke cannabis is that it causes some degree of inflammation, very similar to bronchitis, very similar to the type of inflammation that cigarette smoking can cause," said pulmonologist Dr. Albert Rizzo, chief medical officer for the American Lung Association. "Now you have some airway inflammation and you get an infection on top of it. So, yes, your chance of getting more complications is there."
.
.
.
"Because it attacks the lungs, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 could be an especially serious threat to those who smoke tobacco or marijuana or who vape," the NIH said in its announcement.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/smoking-weed-and-coronavirus-even-occasional-use-raises-risk-of-covid-19-complications/ar-BB12qSZf

Maybe this is why some young people have problems with CoViD-19.


Uh huh...

Just smoking in general is a higher risk factor. Anything that negatively impacts your lungs, really.

(in reply to RangerJoe)
Post #: 4366
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:25:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Thanks for linking to that site.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

California might peak in the next few days.

Re-linking as the site is even more useful today - they added "scale to highlight" as an option.

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/



(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 4367
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:30:34 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

People must comply with the law, but what's wrong with anyone petitioning a court for a ruling on a contention about rights under the law? A judge should be able to determine if the complaint is legit or not. If the judge screws it up, there is the appeals process. This is one of the ways our constitutional republic works. I can't see anything wrong with homeowners anywhere filing a lawsuit to assert a sincerely held right, subjecting it to judicial scrutiny and rule.



quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Six homeowners, who reside the rest of the time in South Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, have backed the complaint, claiming the ban violates the "privileges and immunities" clause of the U.S. Constitution, which states that "The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several states."


What did I tell you? I saw this coming and I'm not even an American citizen.

Sadly, people everywhere (not only in the USA) fail to understand how with freedom comes responsibility. If you worsen this emergency because of your "freedoms", that's on you. "Freedom" is not a "Get out from jail for free" card.


I agree. Citizenship also has obligations. Even noncitizens have obligations to whatever country that they are living in, for whatever reason that they are there.




In general, I agree. And agree in this specific case as well.

Doesn't mean we can't all tut-tut at these folks if so inclined. Personally, I don't think there's anything wrong with going to your second house if you want to, as long as you're not coming into contact with people outside of your household. Get into car, drive without stopping, get out of car. All you touched was you and yours.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4368
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:31:34 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There isn't time to implement a major new program (creating, printing, distributing cards, for instance) in the U.S. before this season's pandemic ends, per current projections.

Most states are projected to be finished around or shortly after May 1. There's not enough time to do much between now and then. There will be moves to gradually ease restrictions in coming weeks. Slowly at first, then more quickly. Nobody will get too frisky before the situation in NYC metro is under control. That's the country's nerve center - we're not going to be at ease as long as it's locked in mortal battle.

Gradually, restrictions will ease. Authorities will look for any signs of flare-ups. The key will be to have enough medical capacity to jump on any eruptions.

During the summer, a lot of thought will be given to more long term solutions, especially if it seems likely another outbreak will occur in the fall.

There may be long term financial/economic/medical community repercussions beyond measure...or maybe not. I don't know. Barring a cascade effect - this triggering some kind of war - I don't foresee major lifestyle changes in my region.



Keep a eye on left field.


I will - if you promise me that Ray Liotta is going to walk out of the corn.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4369
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:31:37 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

I don't mean finished in that sense. I mean new cases down to nil or next to it. States or portions thereof will gradually ease restrictions around then - or as soon as NYC is doing okay.


As long as we stay vigilant. I mean the whole country. I fear whats going to happen is we are going to try and open the country up again too soon and this is going to flare up again. I not only fear that, I fear that is likely. The only way out I see is to have a antibody test and test EVERYBODY, or at least everybody that wants to mingle in polite society. We can stop, start, fuss, think we know better but that is the only certain way out.....or at least until we have a vaccine. So you take a test, you get some sort of proof, you are clear to go to a place where, and this is where it gets funny......someone checks you for your certificate. Counterfeits are the least of our problems. This country has an independence streak that is going to be impossible to overcome. The Government taking your blood, issues certificates and keeping records? Can't see that really working. OK, plan B, keep things locked down until we get a vaccine. Vaguely possible but no guarantee you can make a vaccine for this. Heck, the pneumonia vaccine is fairly recent and they were looking for that a 100 years ago. Even if possible best case is 12-18 months and then you have to manufacture billions of doses .........so plan B is not terrific. So now we are up to plan C........Heard immunity. That will absolutely work, hell, it's going to happen anyway. But at what cost? Sorry, having a perfectly ****ty shift but I'm really struggling to see whats next and be happy about it. And then there is the economy


It's back to this. Management. Containment through testing, case tracking, contact tracing. The dance.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to JohnDillworth)
Post #: 4370
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:35:10 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

How about predictions for new cases in NC?


Here ya go. https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

2 weeks from now, total cases projected to be about 15K in NC.




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Post #: 4371
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:37:03 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/nearly-90percent-of-people-hospitalized-for-covid-19-have-underlying-conditions-says-cdc/ar-BB12pf0p?li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."


Do you know how this and the previous post compare to Influenza mortality rates?


Given that ~60,000 people don't die from the flu in less than 6 months: higher.


Also, they don't have complete social containment and distancing during each year's flu season. The flu has an RO (with implied vaccine use) of around 1.3. It's gone down to almost no cases now after this lockdown.



_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 4372
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:40:25 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Illinois is another state with unexpected success. It had two cases very early and yet has done well. It's projected to have just 777 deaths, reaching zero deaths on May 1. That's just 62 deaths/M.

If most deaths in Illinois are within a predictable population (elderly, sick, etc.) and if cases zero out in three weeks or so, it'll be hard to tell healthy 20-50 years olds restrictions can't be eased methodically to let them return to work.

I'm anxious to see how countries that ease restrictions do; and how states that haven't imposed strong restrictions continue to do.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/10/2020 8:42:24 PM >

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 4373
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:40:39 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Coronavirus is making couples sick — of each other: Lawyers see divorces surge
April 3, 2020


https://nypost.com/2020/04/03/sick-of-you-lawyers-see-coronavirus-divorce-uptick/

"Cooped-up New Yorkers are flooding lawyer phone lines with divorce inquiries — with an avalanche of filings expected once the courts re-open.

“People are realizing that they can’t stand each other,” said Manhattan lawyer Suzanne Kimberly Bracker, who like many in her field has already seen a coronavirus divorce uptick.

“In the middle of the night I got a call from a client who now realizes she has nothing in common with her husband but the children — and how he knows nothing about the children,” Bracker said of a marketing executive she reps."

_____________________________








(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 4374
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:44:22 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
A New Covid-19 Crisis: Domestic Abuse Rises Worldwide
April 6, 2020


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/world/coronavirus-domestic-violence.html


"Now, with families in lockdown worldwide, hotlines are lighting up with abuse reports, leaving governments trying to address a crisis that experts say they should have seen coming.

The United Nations called on Sunday for urgent action to combat the worldwide surge in domestic violence. “I urge all governments to put women’s safety first as they respond to the pandemic,” Secretary General António Guterres wrote on Twitter."


_____________________________








(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4375
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:47:43 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Federal projections suggest coronavirus infections would increase if stay-at-home orders are lifted at 30 days, NYT report says
April 10, 2020


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html


"New federal government projections indicate that coronavirus infections and deaths may dramatically increase if social distancing and other measures are lifted after only 30 days, The New York Times reported on Friday.
The projections, obtained by the Times, were drafted by the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Human Services and dated April 9. The projections don't indicate when those spikes would take place, the Times reported.

The Times reported that the documents outline three scenarios, including one where no restrictions are imposed and another where 25% of people telework, some social distancing continues, and schools remain closed until the summer months. The third scenario adds a 30-day shelter-in-place to the restrictions in the second scenario.

If stay-at-home orders are lifted after 30 days, report says, there would be a bump in the demand for ventilators and the death toll could reach 200,000, according to the Times. "

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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4376
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:49:11 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Coronavirus: Covid-19 outbreak 'levelling off in US'
45 minutes ago


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52249963


"Experts on the White House Covid-19 taskforce say the coronavirus outbreak is starting to level off across the US.

Dr Deborah Birx said there were good signs the outbreak was stabilising, but cautioned: "As encouraging as they are, we have not reached the peak."

President Donald Trump also said he expects the US to see a lower death toll than the initial predictions of 100,000 fatalities.

The US has over 475,000 confirmed cases and nearly 18,000 deaths so far."

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(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 4377
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:53:46 PM   
Cap Mandrake


Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline
40% of severe COVID survivors have neurological sequelae.

Ischemic injury perhaps or even viral encephalitis.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaneurology/fullarticle/2764549

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4378
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 8:55:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Cap, I've heard secondhand stories of serious complications, etc. like lung issues. Those weren't reliable sources and didn't mention whether the issues were temporary or permanent.

Do you have a shorthand synopsis of side effects (preferably in reasonable layman lingo)?

Thanks.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)
Post #: 4379
RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/10/2020 9:09:50 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline
Some Coronavirus Patients Show Signs of Brain Ailments
April 1, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/coronavirus-stroke-seizures-confusion.html




"Doctors have observed neurological symptoms, including confusion, stroke and seizures, in a small subset of Covid-19 patients."


"Although fever, cough and difficulty breathing are the typical hallmarks of infection with the new coronavirus, some patients exhibit altered mental status, or encephalopathy, a catchall term for brain disease or dysfunction that can have many underlying causes, as well as other serious conditions. These neurological syndromes join other unusual symptoms, such as diminished sense of smell and taste as well as heart ailments."

---------------



SO CV19 has variable/adaptable binding sites?

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/10/2020 9:10:10 PM >


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 4380
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