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RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:40:59 PM

Macclan5

Posts: 1065
Joined: 3/24/2016
From: Toronto Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I think, this being such an erudite group, we are the exception that proves the rule. My monitoring of the local situation here in Pennsylvania there is scant discussion.

To a degree, I think you hit the nail on the head with point one:

Will there be a great business and human migration? Of course.

How in the world can anyone start a new business especially in a shutdown state? The simple answer is a business that can weather another shutdown or even profit by it. Other business will see wholesale business model changes as you allude to. I suspect starting a new business will be put off by those not independently wealthy, perhaps this leads to a huge restructuring of small business equity positions. The underground economy will certainly thrive.

Point three will surely be offset by increased cost of doing business including but not limited to additional employees to sanitize and additional insurance expense. I can only shudder at what that will cost, I also shudder to think how the states will change the unemployment insurance programs (which here in Pennsylvania is very fraudulent). In PA you will be able to continue collecting unemployment insurance even if offered your job back...the Gov'r's advice is for companies to simply pay more.

Anyhow, I see very little discussion of any of this.

Fair - I enjoy such discussions and this group may be the exception. This type of discussion is readily available for those that read "The Economist / Forbes / Barons" but that is a finite population.

(i) Starting a new business is subject to 'barriers of entry' or the economic cost to start up. Some industries are prohibitively high ( Oil refinery ) and some are very low ( Local Restaurant ).

With small scale business dramatically hurt - others will see a need unfulfilled. Especially in low barrier to entry industries and even more especially if 'local sourcing' and a de-coupling of the integrated Global supply chain becomes a Business imperative or (politically) is legislated.

(iii) Additional costs born by disinfecting or 'new business practices' may indeed offset the seeds sown by inexpensive energy.

However additional costs will be inexact - non uniform - uncertain for a time.

The oil glut and the corresponding decrease in energy prices is a massive - generally non inflationary - global economic stimulus. It feeds through the entire supply chain. Parts produced in Mexico - shipped to Penn - assembled - shipped California. Think of ~ 6 - 12% every step along a chain - not necessarily 1 step at consumer delivery (??)

Everything is touched by energy / oil - at least until Mr Elon Musk has a 80% Market Share in locomotives, semi-trucks and cars.

_____________________________

A People that values its privileges above it's principles will soon loose both. Dwight D Eisenhower.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 5581

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 2:46:10 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

The oil glut and the corresponding decrease in energy prices is a massive - generally non inflationary - global economic stimulus. It feeds through the entire supply chain. Parts produced in Mexico - shipped to Penn - assembled - shipped California. Think of ~ 6 - 12% every step along a chain - not necessarily 1 step at consumer delivery (??)

Everything is touched by energy / oil - at least until Mr Elon Musk has a 80% Market Share in locomotives, semi-trucks and cars.

The price of oil will rebound very quickly, making this savings very short term. In addition, our leaders will see a lower oil price even more reason for raising taxes on it. For example, my best local gas price is 2.19, off from 2.40 before the virus....since taxes make up the lion share of the cost of gasoline in PA. Not much relief for the local businesses.

(in reply to Macclan5)

Post #: 5582

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:01:59 PM

RFalvo69

Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Constantly trumpeting your political position is irrelevant and boring.

Frankly I find it to be a refreshing counterpoint to the never ending drivel of blithering village idiocy coming from the leftists.

A fine example of how one can strive to keep this thread "non political".

We all understand all too well that your interpretation of keeping the thread "non political" is allowing the leftists to get in their digs without the conservatives being allowed to offer any counter.

The delicate balancing act in this thread is that we speak about the better way to tackle this pandemic both on a personal and governmental level - and this, unavoidably, can get political. If I say "Approach XY is not only wrong - it can be dangerous." I implicitly criticise the political figures who are following it (and possibly the political beliefs of other posters). We strive to stay factual, but political/non political post are not separate by a white/black line. It is a gray area we strive to stay within.

Having said that, I see that you can post your Breibart News just fine, so I don't see what your problem is - unless you are standing in front of a mirror.

quote:

Note: where was your criticism of the post I responded to?

listening to the crickets........

As amazing as it may sound, I have things to do. I appear online because I always keep my MacBook Pro on, with this thread open in the background, but when I check it I usually see that the debate has created another dozen of pages, and I usually only skim them looking for things that I feel being interesting.

Please, point me to where I ignored you or PM me, and I'll see if I can give some sort of rational answer.

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to HansBolter)

Post #: 5583

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:03:14 PM

Cap Mandrake

Posts: 23184
Joined: 11/15/2002
From: Southern California
Status: offline

Hey! How are all the boomers? Everyone take your stool softener and rub on your shark oil? Me and the boys broke into my dad's tequila and then jumped of the 2nd story balcony into the pool. Then we played X-box until 3 AM. It was rad.

Hans is right. "non political" here doesn't really mean "non political". A more apt description would be "conformity". Answer a question about of left-leaning source and one has descended to an earlier developmental stage. Post something from National Review. AVERT YOUR EYES!

It's like a bunch of Muslim grannies shunning the village girl for flirting with the Jewish boy.

As the Pigs say..."Some animals are more equal than others"

Vaya con Dios! Hope everyone makes it through.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 5584

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:04:55 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
These are not dumb people, none of them want people to die, and all of them are trying to navigate uncharted waters.

You clearly don't watch C-span!

Perhaps illustrated best by stationing more troops on Guam will cause it to tip over. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cesSRfXqS1Q

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 5585

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:08:51 PM

Zorch

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

It's time this thread was locked.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 5586

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:11:41 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Nah, we can handle it. There are bumps and bruises, because the topic (coronavirus and strategies to handle it) necessarily bleeds over into politics. But mostly people self regulate and move on. There is the occasional thunder and lightning but then people willingly move on (mostly).

(in reply to Zorch)

Post #: 5587

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:13:58 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

US: Mayor offers Las Vegas as coronavirus control group
23.04.2020

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-mayor-offers-las-vegas-as-coronavirus-control-group/1816069

"The mayor of Las Vegas has offered the city as a social distancing control group to see if the measures really work against coronavirus, a controversial move slammed by many residents of Nevada state's economic powerhouse.

Mayor Carolyn Goodman told Anderson Cooper of CNN during an interview Wednesday that she would accept the city becoming a control group without social distancing measures to compare against other regions with strict coronavirus guidelines.

Goodman said she wanted all businesses in Las Vegas to be up and running again, mentioning that the city had only seen 150 COVID-19 deaths so far, out of a total population of 2.3 million. Cooper then asked her if the low death rate might have been due to people committing to the guidelines."

_____________________________

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Post #: 5588

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:15:52 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Hey! How are all the boomers?

Doing great, don't need stool softener yet.

Always wanted to jump into the pool from the 2nd floor but never had the chance. In my fraternity days, we had parties for Halloween where we piled hay onto the front patio (large house, large patio) and jumped down into it from a 2nd floor balcony (complete with greek columns of course). We always had beer on tap, and at parties garbage bags full of grain alcohol and grape bug juice.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5589

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:16:23 PM

Ian R

Posts: 3420
Joined: 8/1/2000
From: Cammeraygal Country
Status: offline

The Australia report:

We have spiders and snakes and jellyfish and ccorcs and sharks and stuff that kill you for fun, and drop bears and Tassie Tigers that will bite you cause they don't like how you looked at them, but we don't have much covid.

Must be doing something right down here.

quote:

As at 3:00pm on 23 April 2020, there have been 6,661 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 12 new cases since 3:00pm yesterday.

These figures are of course B/S because according to worldometers, Australia has had 6,661 cases, of which 5,045 have recovered, 75 unfortunately died, and the other about 1500 are recovering.

It just hasn't been much of an issue here.

_____________________________

"I am Alfred"

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 5590

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:17:39 PM

Macclan5

Posts: 1065
Joined: 3/24/2016
From: Toronto Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

The oil glut and the corresponding decrease in energy prices is a massive - generally non inflationary - global economic stimulus. It feeds through the entire supply chain. Parts produced in Mexico - shipped to Penn - assembled - shipped California. Think of ~ 6 - 12% every step along a chain - not necessarily 1 step at consumer delivery (??)

Everything is touched by energy / oil - at least until Mr Elon Musk has a 80% Market Share in locomotives, semi-trucks and cars.

The price of oil will rebound very quickly, making this savings very short term. In addition, our leaders will see a lower oil price even more reason for raising taxes on it. For example, my best local gas price is 2.19, off from 2.40 before the virus....since taxes make up the lion share of the cost of gasoline in PA. Not much relief for the local businesses.

Here I disagree. I cannot foresee a price rebound in the world price immediately or in the short term.

Especially if social distancing - travel - tourism are slow to recover. If consumer uses are slow to ramp up. No planes flying on high processed fuel. No cars driving to work. No cars driving on vacation ? Production is not zero and we have no more room to store it.

I Concur at the consumer level limited relief.

$2.19 seems very high as CNN is speaking about USD $1.00 in 'some US Locations'.

The relief is not even.

The tax stays the same or actually increases as a percentage the overall cost ; however that does fund state spending in Penn - whether you agree or disagree with that spending.

Business will deduct as a cost of business / net profit loss. Certain industries - Farming - globally qualify for fuel tax rebates.

Every acre of land farmed in Pennsylvania - those local business people must be thrilled ?? Assuming weather cooperates and they have demand for their produce.

_____________________________

A People that values its privileges above it's principles will soon loose both. Dwight D Eisenhower.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 5591

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:21:09 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nah, we can handle it. There are bumps and bruises, because the topic (coronavirus and strategies to handle it) necessarily bleeds over into politics. But mostly people self regulate and move on. There is the occasional thunder and lightning but then people willingly move on (mostly).

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 5592

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:28:10 PM

HansBolter

Posts: 7704
Joined: 7/6/2006
From: United States
Status: offline

It has already dropped below $1.00 a gallon in some parts of Florida.

Boss traveled to Leesburg last week for a construction site meeting and noted that he saw gas for 86 cents a gallon.

Was talking about this with our two 'youngsters' in the office.

I told them how my father used to tell me how he could remember when a loaf of bread cost a nickle.
Of, course as kids we laughed.

Boss and I both told the youngsters we could remember when gas was 25 cents a gallon.
And of course, they laughed.

Late boomer here. Space Age baby born the year Sputnik was launched.

_____________________________

Hans

(in reply to Macclan5)

Post #: 5593

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:28:18 PM

Zorch

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nah, we can handle it. There are bumps and bruises, because the topic (coronavirus and strategies to handle it) necessarily bleeds over into politics. But mostly people self regulate and move on. There is the occasional thunder and lightning but then people willingly move on (mostly).

Attachment (1)

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 5594

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:33:18 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Macclan5

Every acre of land farmed in Pennsylvania - those local business people must be thrilled ?? Assuming weather cooperates and they have demand for their produce.

PA dairy farmers are dumping milk, even as places like Philly are having milk shortages. So, yeah, PA farmers are thrilled.

Holds true for lots of agricultural products.

https://www.inquirer.com/economy/coronavirus-supply-chain-disruption-dairy-farmers-dump-milk-20200421.html

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 4/23/2020 3:36:21 PM >

(in reply to Macclan5)

Post #: 5595

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:35:52 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Boss and I both told the youngsters we could remember when gas was 25 cents a gallon.
And of course, they laughed.

Late boomer here. Space Age baby born the year Sputnik was launched.

I can remember seeing 22cents, perhaps at a Sinclair?

(in reply to HansBolter)

Post #: 5596

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:47:00 PM

RFalvo69

Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nah, we can handle it. There are bumps and bruises, because the topic (coronavirus and strategies to handle it) necessarily bleeds over into politics. But mostly people self regulate and move on. There is the occasional thunder and lightning but then people willingly move on (mostly).

+1

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 5597

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:48:39 PM

Zorch

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Boss and I both told the youngsters we could remember when gas was 25 cents a gallon.
And of course, they laughed.

Late boomer here. Space Age baby born the year Sputnik was launched.

I can remember seeing 22cents, perhaps at a Sinclair?

And you had to remember to push the button to reset the pump, else you'd be charged for the previous person's gas.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 5598

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 3:52:04 PM

RFalvo69

Posts: 1380
Joined: 7/11/2013
From: Lamezia Terme (Italy)
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nah, we can handle it. There are bumps and bruises, because the topic (coronavirus and strategies to handle it) necessarily bleeds over into politics. But mostly people self regulate and move on. There is the occasional thunder and lightning but then people willingly move on (mostly).

Ending things not always ends well...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zB4I68XVPzQ&feature=youtu.be&t=96

_____________________________

"Yes darling, I served in the Navy for eight years. I was a cook..."
"Oh dad... so you were a God-damned cook?"

(My 10 years old daughter after watching "The Hunt for Red October")

(in reply to MakeeLearn)

Post #: 5599

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 4:58:45 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

Bad news from abroad. My Aunt (and Godmother) who was in a nursing home in Quebec has been moved to the hospital after testing positive for COVID-19. She is 91.

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Post #: 5600

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 5:03:15 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline

Ouch. That's a difficult combination. Since my mom is 90 and in assisted living, the vulnerability of her age group is always in mind.

How is it that you have an aunt in Canada?

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 5601

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 5:15:49 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Ouch. That's a difficult combination. Since my mom is 90 and in assisted living, the vulnerability of her age group is always in mind.

How is it that you have an aunt in Canada?

My mother is a first generation American, having been born and raised with her two sisters in Montreal. I'm 50% French- Canadian by blood.

I have a favor to ask the Canadian readers of this thread. Can you please point me towards the latest restrictions on Americans on travel to Canada? Last I heard, Canada was allowing Americans to travel there, but with a mandated 14 day quarantine upon arrival. Is that still in effect?

I need to think about travelling there within two weeks.

_____________________________

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Post #: 5602

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 5:24:49 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

Cuomo Says 21 Percent of Those Tested in N.Y.C. Had Virus Antibodies
Apr 23, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html

"About 21 percent of roughly 1,300 people in New York City who were tested for coronavirus antibodies this week tested positive, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Thursday.

The results come from a state program that randomly tested 3,000 supermarket customers across New York State. Nearly 14 percent of those tests came back positive, Mr. Cuomo said.

If those numbers translate to the true incidence of coronavirus, they would mean that more than 1.7 million people in New York City, and more than 2.6 million people statewide, have already been infected.

These numbers are far greater than the 250,000 confirmed cases of the virus itself that the state has recorded.

They would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus is relatively low � about 0.5 percent, Mr. Cuomo said."

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/23/2020 5:25:16 PM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 5603

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 5:51:29 PM

warspite1

Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm 50% French by blood.

warspite1

I am so very sorry....

_____________________________

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Post #: 5604

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 5:52:46 PM

warspite1

Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Bad news from abroad. My Aunt (and Godmother) who was in a nursing home in Quebec has been moved to the hospital after testing positive for COVID-19. She is 91.

warspite1

In all seriousness though I am sorry to hear this. I hope she's okay.

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 5605

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 6:06:20 PM

MakeeLearn

Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline

There sure are a lot of dancing nurses and doctors vids. By the ones that have not been laid-off. Some very well choreographed( lots of practice)

Must be from all that stress of being in DEVASTATING COMBAT ON THE FRONT LINES.

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 4/23/2020 6:16:16 PM >

_____________________________

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Post #: 5606

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 6:15:49 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm 50% French by blood.

warspite1

I am so very sorry....

_____________________________

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Post #: 5607

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 6:16:31 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: San Antonio, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Bad news from abroad. My Aunt (and Godmother) who was in a nursing home in Quebec has been moved to the hospital after testing positive for COVID-19. She is 91.

warspite1

In all seriousness though I am sorry to hear this. I hope she's okay.

Thanks mate. I'll post an update if relevant.

_____________________________

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Post #: 5608

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 6:16:56 PM

Zorch

Posts: 7087
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm 50% French by blood.

warspite1

I am so very sorry....

CB you're supposed to say, "Is not their climate foggy, raw, and dull?"

(in reply to warspite1)

Post #: 5609

RE: OT: Corona virus - 4/23/2020 6:22:13 PM

fcooke

Posts: 1156
Joined: 6/18/2002
From: Boston, London, Hoboken, now Warwick, NY
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The evil part of me typing here.....I think if you can get close enough by plane, a small chartered boat could get you in. But hopefully it does not get there....

(in reply to Zorch)

Post #: 5610