Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.

Yes, Freedom comes with consequences and risks.

I, for one, hope we never become obedient drones.


and p.s.....if you felt the need to qualify up front that your weren't engaging in an attack then you probably were......

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Much of the original outbreak in South Korea was specific to one large church, which lent itself to effective contact tracing. The leader of the church was forced to apologize on live TV. To say there are no cultural reasons for their success is idiotic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-a-south-korean-church-was-the-perfect-petri-dish-for-coronavirus-11583082110

quote:

ORIGINAL: 22sec

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.

If it did arrive and go unnoticed in December through February what does that imply about the measures implemented starting in March? If we make the presumption that it was here then we functioned just fine - the healthcare system barely noticed, and we didn’t force millions to suddenly become unemployed.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Much of the original outbreak in South Korea was specific to one large church, which lent itself to effective contact tracing. The leader of the church was forced to apologize on live TV. To say there are no cultural reasons for their success is idiotic.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-a-south-korean-church-was-the-perfect-petri-dish-for-coronavirus-11583082110

Who said there are no cultural reasons for their success? Or are you saying other countries are incapable of doing what they're doing because of a lack of these "cultural reasons?"

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: 22sec

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

As I said for NYC, "We thought we had 2 weeks only to find it had been here for a month already". It was everywhere before we knew what hit us. We didn't stand a chance. I think when we get a good count of things we will find out it was here in late 2019. Many fatalities were probably written off to the flu. Starting to see it from the nursing homes. Hundreds if not thousands were dead and they were not counted as Covid. Hope that is not true across the country. As a society we did not do well with the nursing homes.

If it did arrive and go unnoticed in December through February what does that imply about the measures implemented starting in March? If we make the presumption that it was here then we functioned just fine - the healthcare system barely noticed, and we didn’t force millions to suddenly become unemployed.

NY functioned just fine? You're responding to a frontline worker fro NYC in case you weren't aware. He can probably relay a lot more about how NY was not just fine.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

SF confirms it's giving drugs to homeless in hotels in 'limited quantities'
4 hrs ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sf-confirms-its-giving-drugs-to-homeless-in-hotels-in-limited-quantities/ar-BB13KdcS?li=BBnb7Kz


"The San Francisco Department of Public Health said in a statement that in some cases "limited quantities" of alcohol, marijuana and tobacco are being provided through private funding to addicts in isolation and quarantine under the city's program housing homeless people in hotels. The substances are administered with the guidance of licensed physicians.

"Managed alcohol and tobacco use makes it possible to increase the number of guests who stay in isolation and quarantine and, notably, protects the health of people who might otherwise need hospital care for life-threatening alcohol withdrawal," SFDPH said in a statement."

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

SF confirms it's giving drugs to homeless in hotels in 'limited quantities'
4 hrs ago


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sf-confirms-its-giving-drugs-to-homeless-in-hotels-in-limited-quantities/ar-BB13KdcS?li=BBnb7Kz


"The San Francisco Department of Public Health said in a statement that in some cases "limited quantities" of alcohol, marijuana and tobacco are being provided through private funding to addicts in isolation and quarantine under the city's program housing homeless people in hotels. The substances are administered with the guidance of licensed physicians.

"Managed alcohol and tobacco use makes it possible to increase the number of guests who stay in isolation and quarantine and, notably, protects the health of people who might otherwise need hospital care for life-threatening alcohol withdrawal," SFDPH said in a statement."

OK...201 wants Jim Beam, full handle...302 ordered Grey Goose...give him the Popov in the Grey Goose bottle...he'll never tell the difference...304 want a Long Island Iced Tea and an order of onion rings....

quote:

If it did arrive and go unnoticed in December through February what does that imply about the measures implemented starting in March? If we make the presumption that it was here then we functioned just fine - the healthcare system barely noticed, and we didn’t force millions to suddenly become unemployed.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm posting this not as an attack but because I feel based on all of the evidence over the past nearly four months, South Korea is the model to follow until a vaccine is developed (if that ever does get developed successfully).

It's simply a coincidence that the first known case in the US was nearly at the same time as the first in South Korea. From what I've heard now about cases being active in France in December and in NY in January. I think many more cases were active in the US in these early months than we now know, growing fast and with stealth in less vulnerable populations.

The difference in the US and Korean methods of reaction are not due to just a difference in the situation or the populace and habits. We've know this for a while from our local there Commander Cody. This means though that every country could do what they're doing. We just have to do it.

This article expounds on their methods and the reason they were so ready for this pandemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/

In the time that South Korea righted its course, the United States veered into disaster. In mid-March, the U.S. and South Korea had the same number of coronavirus-caused fatalities—approximately 90. In April, South Korea lost a total of 85 souls to COVID-19, while the U.S. lost 62,000—an average of 85 deaths every hour. That the U.S. population is approximately six times larger than South Korea’s does little to soften the horror of the comparison.

Juxtaposing the South Korean response with the American tragedy, some commentators have chalked up the difference to an ancient culture of docile collectivism and Confucianism across the Pacific. This observation isn’t just racist. It also exoticizes South Korea’s success and makes it seem like the inevitable result of millennia of cultural accretion, rather than something the U.S., or any other country, can learn from right now. The truth is that the Korean government and its citizens did something simple, admirable, and all too rare: They suffered from history, and they learned from it.

Yes, Freedom comes with consequences and risks.

I, for one, hope we never become obedient drones.


and p.s.....if you felt the need to qualify up front that your weren't engaging in an attack then you probably were......

Right on cue.

Your national stereotyping quickly confirms the need for this report. And my qualification of why I dared post it here.

Thanks again for sharing your self-proclaimed "correct" view, Hans.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

What the South Koreans did right:

1) Well organized game plan and DEDICATED, trained personnel ready on day 1

2) Effective testing roll-out

3) Top-down authoritarian measures not questioned

4) Tremendous geographic advantages

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

If it did arrive and go unnoticed in December through February what does that imply about the measures implemented starting in March? If we make the presumption that it was here then we functioned just fine - the healthcare system barely noticed, and we didn’t force millions to suddenly become unemployed.

The health care system is not integrated. There might be 230 hospitals, 8 of which are government run and the other might be in groups of 1-10 hospitals. They may have all saw an increase in deaths and attributed them to the flu. The nursing homes did that. We functioned for a while, but it got uncontrollable soon enough. Once it reached a certain critical mass the numbers doubled every 3 days. The exponential increase was impossible to miss or control. NYC is dense, in places unbelievably dense. We could not have continued to function without almost total and immediate lock-down. Once we acted it slowed down quickly, but if we open up again at where we were before we will have the same results. The surrounding suburbs are pretty bad too. We have an extensive transportation network. It tracked along that and infected the suburbs. Other parts of the country may fare better but cities are tough to manage and the country can't do without those cities. If places are lax and this thing gets a foothold it is the devil to beat back. NYC will just have to change and learn to live alongside this thing. If anybody thinks this thing is just going to go away some day I suspect they are mistaken. As for a vaccine? Maybe, but if we get one in the next 3 years it would be the fastest vaccine ever. 90% of new drugs fail clinical trials and vaccines are among the most complicated of drugs. Yes, there are 100+ trials. Most, if not all of them, will fail. Most will do nothing. Some will have unacceptable side effects. Some may partially work. Some may cause other problems down the line. And maybe, just maybe, one will work. And then the hard part starts. Manufacturing it in large quantities. Nobody is building a factory until they know their vaccine works. And even then there are moral dilemmas. What if we have, say 500,000 does the first year? Who gets those? Me? You? Hmmmmmmm, I suspect not

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

Probably cannot 'start' the eviction process till then, and in NY it takes about about a year for the process to work through the system. Most people will do what they can to 'be fair', but sadly some will take advantage of the situation if my experience is any guideline.....

quote:

Probably cannot 'start' the eviction process till then, and in NY it takes about about a year for the process to work through the system. Most people will do what they can to 'be fair', but sadly some will take advantage of the situation if my experience is any guideline.....