Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

I'd like to see how many current vs how many previous cases though.

Me too. But we aren't seeing a high death count or hospitalization level because you would think that would be reported. 1,000 infected means how many dead: 1%; well that would be 10. Half a percent, that would mean 5. I think that would make the story.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
For more recent information watch this interview of Ferguson (35 minutes). april 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev8

Watching it. Here are the main points:


Lockdown reduced transmission to 0.6 in the UK by May.

Every country has failed to shield the old and vulnerable.

We should be looking at South Korea as a model. The only way to use their model is to get case numbers low enough to help shield vulnerable better, use tracking and isolation.

Also, once case numbers are low other medical issues can be treated more effectively again, reducing non-Covid excess deaths.

If lockdown had not occurred health system would be overwhelmed and both Covid deaths and those from other treatable conditions would have been higher.

Once case numbers are low relaxing more areas of the economy will be possible.

Some social distancing will be necessary until a vaccine is developed.

Some hospitals were at capacity in London during the peak, but the lockdown prevented the overall system being overwhelmed, unlike NYC, which was worse.

There is a tradeoff now as we open between what is able to open and the goal of lowering case numbers, as pointed out above.

If you run a higher transmission rate than Ro = 1 then you will have a higher mortality rate. They've run scenarios for higher transmission rates and it would be very hard to shield the vulnerable in these scenarios. Sceptical it's achievable, and there might be more than 100k deaths in those situations by the end of the year in the UK.

Middle and lower income people much more vulnerable. Hard to protect them for multiple reasons. Same is true for many developing countries around the world.

Worried science will be distorted to support different political agendas, negating it's objective findings.

It is a good interview, I like this interviewer, I have watched two of his other interviews (well, listened to them while I cut the grass).

I would like to have seen more talk of South Korea, and also more of a discussion of his disagreement with Sweeden's route.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Obvert,
Sorry, haven't been in the forum much the last few weeks. I understand you had a blessed event? Congratulations!

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


He seems to say enough to understand their death rate, at the time the same per capita as NYC apparently, was very high compared to other strategies. I thought his stance on Korea being the model to follow implied what he thought of the Swedish choice. You have to get case numbers down to follow that model, and Sweden's course is to allow a (hopefully) slow burn through the population.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I am not trying to prove a position to or disprove. I simply want to understand what goes into the decision making and I like to question.

Ok. There does though seem to be an anti-lockdown trend to your posts. Isn't that true?

Not really. I would say I am anti-death though.

That's a very cryptic statement. Any explanation?

It is a ridiculous question. Labeling anyone anti- something is very derogatory.

I didn't label you. I noticed may of your posts trend toward articles and other that are anti-lockdown, and asked about that. It's just above. It's a question.

I'm also confused by your response. So asked about that too. Sorry.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.

This is what I wanted to post.

A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.

This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.

Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).

Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The genomic mutation rate data are EXTREMELY powerful and convincing. Not only that, they can identify the individual mutations budding up over time and precisely identify the strain of origin of each new mutation, thereby tracing it back to the original strain of origin recovered from a patient in Wuhan in Late December. It's impossible for this virus to have been in the US since the Fall, given it's extremely aggressive transmission behavior.
,
In the US we ALWAYS see an uptick in respiratory illnesses in September when school starts. Adenovirus, parainfluenza, RSV, mycoplasma etc. etc.

It's my understanding the CCP had the samples from early patients destroyed.