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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 4:04:14 AM

Cap Mandrake

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are ****ty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

Excellent point.

(in reply to pontiouspilot)

Post #: 7111

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 6:53:33 AM

BBfanboy

Posts: 18046
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Sure, just open the meat processing plant. 1,000 positive tests? Who cares, we need our meat. https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/496844-coronavirus-cases-at-iowa-meat-plant-top-1000-same-day

How do meat processing plants test so highly? I have posted some articles about jails testing very highly too. Could it be because they are being tested in much higher numbers than the general population?

Masks, gloves, sanitary standards are pretty decent.

From the article: Local officials Thursday identified 1,031 workers from Tyson's Waterloo, Iowa plant who tested positive for coronavirus or for antibodies that show they were previously infected.

That is the same language the articles I linked to with respect to prisons.

I think it might give more credence to the theory that covid was here much earlier than we thought and spread thru the population at large much more than we thought.

They work in shoulder to shoulder conditions (assembly line meat trimming), get covered in blood and gore (which would helps sustain the virus), are not allowed to leave the line just because they have a cough, are paid minimum wage with no benefits so they can't afford to miss work, and the employer does nothing to try and suppress the virus or the transmission possibilities. Masks are an employee responsibility. And because the workers are poor, they suffer the nutrition and obesity issues of other poor populations - too much salty/fatty cheap food and not enough veggies etc. to bolster their systems.

One plant said it would test everyone before opening (after over a hundred were critically ill and it shut for a couple of weeks). VP Pence said he would ensure they got tests. The company tested supervisors and management and had an 80% positive rate, so they decided not to bother testing the workers and still made them come to work as "essential workers". They still have not been tested. This is the plant in Waterloo, Iowa that the CDC inspected after the initial outbreak and wrote a lengthy list of things required before it should reopen again. But before the report was released the flavour was changed from mandatory requirements to "suggestions". The plant owners (who are friends of the President) did nothing on the list.

Anyone suggesting too much is being made of the situation in meat packing plants is not paying attention, IMO.

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Post #: 7112

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 6:58:21 AM

BBfanboy

Posts: 18046
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quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are ****ty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

The poor immigrant meme that you describe is not unique to meat packing - so why are meat packing plants so bad in comparison to other places where these people work? The working conditions are a powerful contributor to the spread of the virus. It was detected very broadly in the plants before it was rampant among their families.

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Post #: 7113

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 7:55:05 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

So, in watching the Neil Furgeson interview I got sidetracked. A very interesting watch, BTW, thanks Lowpe.

This is what I wanted to post.

A business acquaintance of my wife is Chinese, from Sian. He said he had the worst case of coughing and flu he's ever had, got pneumonia, and it took him a month to get rid of it.

This is the kicker. He had that in September. He said it was going around then.

Firstly, that is a very early start to the flu season in a place where average temperature in Aug is 30C(86F) and in Sept is 26C(79F).

Secondly, that is a very bad and strangely familiar sounding case of the flu.

No, You Did Not Get COVID-19 in the Fall of 2019
https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-circulating-california-2019-bunk.html

first detected strain in US

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/north-america?s=USA/WA1/2020

Very good Slate article and it shows exactly why these things need a lot of fact checking. Hanson, quoted in the article about Fall spread in the US, is not a doctor and has an agenda relating to opening up the economy very soon regardless of "science" modelling, (which apparently he derides by putting it in quotes to call it into question, and that he wants fewer Chinese to study and travel to the US.

Due to this thread and it's many resources we've gone through the virus genetic tracing studies earlier, and know of the Nov 17 date of the earliest known case in China. I remember that date well because my wife returned from Xian that day.

My posting of this annecdotal story is to offer a possible extension to that. Not being a scientist, I don't know if some of these genetic studies have an error factor of a month or two, or if they're rock solid. It was obviously transmitting before the known case on Nov 17 was seen in hospital due to the gestation period for him and possibly whoever he caught it from. We've also read studies saying this is a slowly mutating virus genetically, so I wondered if in the initial phase, when the earlier strain was not transmitting as readily, before it's mutation, it slowly spread across pockets of the Chinese population.

I look forward to learning more.

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Post #: 7114

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 10:18:38 AM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are ****ty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

Excellent point.

Well, as they say in the Wisconsin Supreme Court: "(The surge) was due to the meatpacking � that's where Brown County got the flare," "It wasn't just the regular folks in Brown County." . Not in the "REGULAR FOLKS"......wonder what that judge meant?
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2020/05/06/wisconsin-supreme-court-justice-called-racist-meatpacking-remark/5175593002/
Almost like some "folks" are more disposable than others. Well good morning America, it's in the White House too. Not so sure mass reopening are the best idea but we are about to find out. I would not be surprised if real numbers start to get harder to find and maybe even questions as to if the exiting numbers are real at all. I hope for our country we know what we are doing

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 5/9/2020 10:20:54 AM >

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Post #: 7115

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 10:41:26 AM

JohnDillworth

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In many parts of the Northeast the Saturday before Mothers day is the traditional start of the Little League season starting with the morning parades. Kind of a small town America thing. Another silly thing we lost this year. All for the best as it is barely above freezing and we had just a touch of snow last night. Someone needs to unplug 2020, wait 2 minutes, and plug it back in again. Hard Reboot

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Post #: 7116

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 10:52:40 AM

MakeeLearn

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A meat giant is anxious as virus shuts two Brazil chicken plants
5 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-meat-giant-is-anxious-as-virus-shuts-two-brazil-chicken-plants/ar-BB13Owvi?li=BBnb7Kz

"Bloomberg) -- Two giant meat companies in Brazil, the world�s top chicken exporter, were ordered to shut a poultry plant in the past 24 hours, and analysts warned more closures loom as the coronavirus threatens food supplies."

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Post #: 7117

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 10:56:35 AM

MakeeLearn

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Some See Plot To Create 'World Government' In Coronavirus Restrictions
May 8, 2020

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/08/853110793/some-see-plot-to-create-world-government-in-coronavirus-restrictions

"In the latest example, a manifesto promoted by conservative Catholics alleges that the Covid-19 pandemic is being used as a "pretext" to deprive citizens around the world of their fundamental freedoms and promote "a world government."

The appeal, led by Archbishop Carlo Vigan�, a former apostolic nuncio to the United States, was released Thursday in Rome and includes the signatures of at least two cardinals and a U.S. bishop, Joseph Strickland of Tyler, Texas, as well as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the son of Robert F. Kennedy and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy. The manifesto cites "growing doubts ... about the actual contagiousness, danger, and resistance of the virus.""

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Post #: 7118

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 10:59:35 AM

MakeeLearn

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THE CORONAVIRUS HAS WRECKED THE ECONOMY
May 8, 2020

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/05/08/the-coronavirus-has-wrecked-the-economy/#4426647836da

"he U.S. Department of Labor released April�s job report this morning and it was the worst one-month report ever. There were 20.5 million jobs lost and the unemployment rate skyrocketed from 4.4% in March to 14.7% in April, which is the highest rate and the largest month-to-month increase in the history of the report.

It is a stunning number that�s only topped by levels reached during the Great Depression (there was no official unemployment report at the time but the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates unemployment may have reached 25%). The largest decrease in employment on record occurred in September 1945 when 1.96 million people lost their jobs affecting 3.3% of the workforce. "

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Post #: 7119

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 11:04:00 AM

MakeeLearn

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....Creepy...

"We are businesses, nonprofits, governments and individuals...working in collaboration to ensure that the future of digital identity is, indeed, #goodID."

https://id2020.org/

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 5/9/2020 11:05:41 AM >

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Post #: 7120

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:03:51 PM

Canoerebel

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Almost a week ago, IHME significantly revised its mortality projections. A quick look shows that the US is beneath the projection but within the margin of error, and Georgia is beneath the projection and outside the margin of error. A quick look around the map shows that these states are also under: New York, Texas, Ohio, Minnesota, Colorado. These a bit over: Missouri and Florida.

Historically, over the past six weeks, IHME would revise projections regularly, usually about twice a week. The last change resulted in such consternation (change is by itself unsettling) that I wondered if the group would try to refrain from doing so for awhile. In this case, there probably isn't a need to do so yet. Unless things were really spiraling downward (or, less likely, drastically improving), give the new projections some time to establish a track record.

There may be uncertainties about reported numbers, but we've been using IHME and Worldometers from the start (or since it began, in the case of IHME). There is some merit in consistency, hopefully.

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Post #: 7121

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:16:23 PM

Canoerebel

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Shortly after my state began easing countermeasures 15 days ago, John Dillworth (from NYC) posted to this effect (paraphrasing): "Good luck to Georgia as it begins serving as a test case for the rest of us." His comment was good-natured but certainly made a key point. We'd want to monitor the vanguard carefully to see how things went.

Denmark began easing in mid-April, Germany and Georgia later in the month. To this point, there haven't been statewide/nationwide spikes in any of these places. Cases and mortalities have dropped in Germany and Denmark, though with the stubborn "comet tail" feature that Lokasenna introduced into the conversation. Georgia is earlier in the curve, having started and sustained an encouraging (but still early) downward trend. These places should have reached, or should be reaching, points where problems begin popping up if even "any easing" is going to be an issue. Stay tuned, but so far, so good.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 5/9/2020 12:22:23 PM >

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Post #: 7122

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:16:53 PM

obvert

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This article from the The Spectator feels like an interesting and balanced take on the Neil Ferguson code and his role as an advisor to the UK government. It does criticise the code, but in spite of the linked anonymous analysis, as I've read on multiple sites now, the main issue with the code as they used it at Imperial is not that it's actually inaccurate, it's simply unintelligible to others to confirm those results using other systems.

That is a problem, but not one that has somehow changed the course of the decisions of several governments alone, as some are now very dramatically stating in links posted earlier from sources such as Breitbart.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/forget-ferguson-s-personal-failures-it-s-his-science-that-needs-scrutiny

Ferguson�s model has not led the UK down a drastically different path from that of many other countries � indeed, it only recommended lockdown relatively late versus those used by other countries. It likely contains errors, but it�s hardly a huge outlier from the international consensus. Those looking for anything to show lockdown is an error should search for another straw to grasp.

We should, though, welcome the efforts to test and even to tear down the Imperial model. This is what the scientific process is � a spirited and often fractious public debate, a battle place of ideas. It is rarely as high-minded and public-spirited as those who place it on a pedestal would hope.

Peer reviewers savage a paper because it contradicts their own research, or because they�ve guessed who the author is and can�t stand them. Institutions battle for fame and for funding. People hold grudges. Personality, like politics, doesn�t stop at the water�s edge � good work comes out of dubious motivations.

The interview posted by Lowpe also much more thoroughly explains reasons for lockdowns and getting Ro low, then getting case numbers low as economies reopen.

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Post #: 7123

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:23:46 PM

obvert

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Testing again here. The UK seems to be consistently dropping 0.4% per day now in percentage positive in testing. The US holding about the same. Not many other updated reports form countries I've been looking at.

Attachment (1)

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Post #: 7124

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:35:00 PM

JohnDillworth

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tick, tick, tick 2 days ago only 1 state exceed the R0 infection value of 1.0 This morning, 3 states exceed the value and many others have increased. Now more and more states are opening up. https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/
Instead of any semblance of a unified policy we have now entered "Choose Your Own Adventure" land.

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Post #: 7125

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:36:30 PM

HansBolter

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

....Creepy...

"We are businesses, nonprofits, governments and individuals...working in collaboration to ensure that the future of digital identity is, indeed, #goodID."

https://id2020.org/

Never trust a guy who wants everyone on the planet to have a vaccine verification card, but REFUSED to have his own children vaccinated.

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Hans

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Post #: 7126

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:40:44 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Mutation rate analysis absolutely has an error range because you are talking about a biological process which is the result of random events but, even so, it is pretty solid science given the thousands of genome sequencings already done on the demon virus.

The only data point one can offer with certitude is the earliest patient with a proven recovery of the viral genome from specimens. Even with Wuhan doctors on the lookout for SARS-like diseases, it is almost inevitable there would be no identification of patient zero clinically because there was no test at the time. The human brain recognizes patterns. It takes a second or third patient to recognize the pattern.

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Post #: 7127

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:44:39 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Fortunately, climate models suffer no such shortcomings and are able to predict what kind of shirt I should wear on March 28, 2050 (if I am lucky enough to still need a shirt)

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Post #: 7128

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 12:48:18 PM

Canoerebel

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We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too. I don't have a problem with that, though I know others prefer a different model. I'm glad my governor made the calls both ways, rather than a higher-up, more remote, and possibly more detached and less real-world politician.

It's probably too early for most other states that have begun easing to see any results, positive or negative, given the two- to three-week lag. So my first hunch would be that any statistically meaningful rises or falls in Ro rates would be due to local factors apart from easing. We're not even sure if the two additional states you're referring to have eased off - that would be the first thing to check.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

tick, tick, tick 2 days ago only 1 state exceed the R0 infection value of 1.0 This morning, 3 states exceed the value and many others have increased. Now more and more states are opening up. https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/
Instead of any semblance of a unified policy we have now entered "Choose Your Own Adventure" land.

(in reply to JohnDillworth)

Post #: 7129

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:01:40 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too.

There are 2 words in the name of our country and only one of them is "States". We need a little more work on the other word. Imagine fighting a World War and every State went into it with it's own army and it's own plan? We would be routed in short order. This is not a State problem. They entire country is threatened.

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 5/9/2020 1:24:31 PM >

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Post #: 7130

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:03:05 PM

witpqs

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On YouTube from the BBC.
Coronavirus: Is the government really �following the science�? - BBC Newsnight

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Post #: 7131

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:24:06 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too.

There are 2 words in the name of our country and only one of them is "States". We need a little more work on the other word.

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?

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Post #: 7132

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:26:11 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?

I amended above Imagine fighting a World War and every State went into it with it's own army and it's own plan? We would be routed in short order. This is not a State problem. The entire country is threatened. This is a global threat and our entire country is under attack. Do you think 50 individual efforts would work better than one united effort? Why do we have a Republic at all? If not for common defense then for what?

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 5/9/2020 1:31:18 PM >

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Post #: 7133

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:26:45 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Fortunately, climate models suffer no such shortcomings and are able to predict what kind of shirt I should wear on March 28, 2050 (if I am lucky enough to still need a shirt)

I haven't actually seen the documentary but this is interesting. I think that the reason for the windmills at sea is so the birds that get killed by the windmill will get eaten by fish and won't get counted:

The Left 'has attacked' Michael Moore for his 'Planet Human' documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzQxaUVtmUA

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Post #: 7134

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:26:57 PM

witpqs

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

We went into this with federalism, and we're coming out with it that way too.

There are 2 words in the name of our country and only one of them is "States". We need a little more work on the other word.

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?

We don't. We have plenty of that already.

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Post #: 7135

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:43:22 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

The real issue with Cndn meat packing plants (maybe everywhere??) is not even so much the work environment as the the social setting for the workers. These are ****ty jobs and the workers are predominantly poorer immigrant populations. These populations are tight knit, often travelling together, socializing together and in many instances sharing cramped accommodations. Language and education only add more problems to efforts to stem the virus.

My German opponent says that is exactly the make-up of meat-packing there also.

Alberta would pretty much have this licked were it not for several large meat plant out-breaks.

Excellent point.

I thought that there were enough American high school dropouts that could do this work so that the US would not have to import un/undereducated people to do this work. Then the worker should be able to understand English, American style.

I understand that in big Canada land that they do have a guest/temporary worker program so they could ensure that those legal temporary/guest workers could understand enough English, Canadian style. One point of emphasis would be for those workers from a warm climate would be that they should procure and wear a good, warm touk.

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Post #: 7136

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 1:43:31 PM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

May I ask why we need a little more work on the other word?
I amended above Imagine fighting a World War and every State went into it with it's own army and it's own plan? We would be routed in short order. This is not a State problem. They entire country is threatened. This is a global threat and our entire country is under attack. Do you think 50 individual efforts would work better than one united effort?

The United States does have an Army with a unified leadership. Are you stating otherwise? Did you ever serve in the New York State army or the army of any state that you lived in?

Thee is nothing wrong with every state having its own plan, that way each state can decide what to do according to its own unique situation. Then the best things from each state can be seen and utilized by all of them.

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

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Post #: 7137

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 2:03:40 PM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

Nice straw man but I said nothing of the sort. All attacks are not military in nature. I submit to you that the country is under attack from a virus. This attack is killing 4 times as many Americas a day as died in WWII. This is an attack on our country. Are you stating that 50 different strategies to combating this attack will be more successful than one, united strategy or do you dispute the notion that we are under attack?

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 5/9/2020 2:06:01 PM >

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Post #: 7138

RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 2:15:00 PM

witpqs

Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

Nice straw man but I said nothing of the sort. All attacks are not military in nature. I submit to you that the country is under attack from a virus. This attack is killing 4 times as many Americas a day as died in WWII. This is an attack on our country. Are you stating that 50 different strategies to combating this attack will be more successful than one, united strategy or do you dispute the notion that we are under attack?

Your own straw man.

Would you extend the 'one' strategy approach to the world?

Protecting those most at risk makes more sense than increasing deaths and disease from other causes with too long and too severe a lock down for all. I saw the photos taken of the crowded NYC subway, a sure place to exchange the pathogen, while at the same time people were being vilified for 'violating quarantine' by venturing into the open air.

Presenting the virus pandemic as an 'attack' is, like all analogies, useful only to a point. Carrying that too far only serves to mandate emotion over reason.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 5/9/2020 2:15:15 PM

RangerJoe

Posts: 13450
Joined: 11/16/2015
From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Or would you rather have a top down mandate that nursing homes and assisted living facilities must take potentially positive COVID-19 patients with no knowledge of whether or not that they have it and place them with people who do not have it? How did that work for the state that did that? Do you know what state that is? Or is that just an attempt to dispose of the high risk people who have higher medical costs?

Nice straw man but I said nothing of the sort. All attacks are not military in nature. I submit to you that the country is under attack from a virus. This attack is killing 4 times as many Americas a day as died in WWII. This is an attack on our country. Are you stating that 50 different strategies to combating this attack will be more successful than one, united strategy or do you dispute the notion that we are under attack?

Nice name calling there for no reason. I am definitely not a scarecrow.

But you stated Army, that implies a military attack.

Yes, I would rather have 50 different strategies to find the best one than to have one imposed upon me. Especially when no one knew exactly the best way to fight this new coronavirus.

You never did state anything about the imposition of potentially positive COVID-19 patients being forced upon nursing homes and assisted living homes. Was your name calling an attempt to deflect from that?

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 5/9/2020 2:37:09 PM >

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Post #: 7140