Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer



No need to apologize, CR, please.
It's over a decade now that I follow your adventures and while we would probably disagree on a lot of political issues I am very fine with this, as I have never been in the States and therefore a bit reluctant to spread advise over the pond. :-)
In this context I might add that any supposed 'hate' against the American people is comically exaggerated from our side, not to say borderline propaganda with an obvious aim to divide.

But you get what you pay for, as we are both publishers we know that good, as objective as possible journalism can't be made for free, so it isn't astonishing at all to realize how much free stuff in the Internet is a best clickbait or sometimes driven by a hidden agenda.

Haha, your idea to divide Germany into a system of federal states was great, allthough some folks may argue we had been grow a little bit to fat in the last time :-)

Good luck to everyone,
especially best wishes for everyone with kids - you have my support in this times.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


There are no digs. The personnel stuff is because I'm fed up with the BS you and others throw ardour at anyone who presents something slightly different than your world view, and is met with outrage without any foundation in fact. My default is to look widely for expert advice, objective information and base my posts on the best science has to offer in the moment. There are no politics in that, no agenda, just trying to understand.

This is objective information I'm getting from sources that are verified. How do you explain what Fauci said in this interview?

Have a look. One week to have 60% less deaths in this phase. Two weeks earlier to have 90% less. Even if there is some error margin in those projections, I'd certainly take 40-50% less deaths. Wouldn't you?

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


After recent events, my interest was taken with the decision making at the top levels of US government.

From this, and the recent interaction between Trump and Dr Brix, I am of the opinion that Fauci, Brix (and likely anyone else involved in the process) would say the sky is green if it kept Trump on side.

Trump's comments (well, tweets) on the subject are in the public domain.

If you read those comments as the comments of a leader that takes the situation and the advice seriously, then perhaps get your eyes tested.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mind_Messing offers the kind of contemptuous analysis that we've discussed the past week or so. He believes in his positions passionately but expresses himself in a manner that is off-putting ("get your eyes tested" and many, many other statements) to those Americans who support Trump. They support him for diverse, disparate reasons, ranging from the Supreme Court to deeply held Pro-Life convictions to opposition to liberal ideologies to a distaste for the smug eliteness that too often permeates the left ("Deplorables," etc.). If the left really wants to beat Trump, they'd be better served by not continuously overplaying their hands, driving swing voters and swing states to the Red. Democrat strategist James Carville had it exactly right in February, as quoted in here the middle of last week. Smugness and contemptuousness are remarkably irritating.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mind_Messing offers the kind of contemptuous analysis that we've discussed the past week or so. He believes in his positions passionately but expresses himself in a manner that is off-putting ("get your eyes tested" and many, many other statements) to those Americans who support Trump. They support him for diverse, disparate reasons, ranging from the Supreme Court to deeply held Pro-Life convictions to opposition to liberal ideologies to a distaste for the smug eliteness that too often permeates the left ("Deplorables," etc.). If the left really wants to beat Trump, they'd be better served by not continuously overplaying their hands, driving swing voters and swing states to the Red. Democrat strategist James Carville had it exactly right in February, as quoted in here the middle of last week. Smugness and contemptuousness are remarkably irritating.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Too many economic illiterate people posting in this thread.

Income will not quickly recover fully and that will directly feed into suppressing aggregate demand.

1.  Some parts of the economy will witnessed an explosion in inventory numbers.  Two major ones are oil and aircraft.

The reason why oil futures recently went into negative te4rritory was not primarily due to production but a lack of oil storage facilities.  The substantial downturn in oil demand combined with the continued production means that oil inventories are high.  People forget that the northern summer season witnesses a drop in oil demand so they're aren't coming down soon.  Even the total collapse of the North American fracking industry won't bring supply into equilibrium with demand.

There will be airline collapses, it is just a matter of time.  Even without them, there is an absolute glut of parked aircraft.  It costs a lot of money every single day to have a parked aircraft.  This will result in two bad outcomes.  It will see the market for new aircraft destroyed as everyone will be trying to off load their parked aircraft.  Very bad news for Boeing and Airbus and all their component supplies.  The employment knock on effect will be huge.  Nor will the aircraft leasing companies come through unscathed.

2.  The airline downturn will not just be the result of the collapse of international air travel for the foreseeable future, it directly disrupts the supply chain.  It isn't just international tourists who are aren't going anywhere and that has very significant employment and income repercussions on many economies, international air freight is largely kaput too.  That has serious repercussions on trade and production which of course reduces international income.

3.  Even were the lockdowns totally removed today, most companies are going to experience a minimum of 2 quarters ( the past quarter and the current quarter) of depressed earnings.  My money is that  earnings will not recover before Q4 in 2021.  At some stage, the depressed earnings will result in reduced dividends.  that will have repercussions on 401 schemes and shareholder incomes.

4.  Most business fixed costs are still incurred during the lockdown.  Lost business income is just that, lost.  Removal of lockdowns will, at the absolute best if one is an optimist, see demand recover to former levels.  It wont exceed past levels which leaves a significant period with lost demand.  Those inventories will take some time to reduce, and then by reducing forward orders to producers.  Again diminishing future income levels.

Government budgets, ahh I won't even touch them now but there is a world of future pain being stored up.

Alfred 

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

My fish still drink like fish.....and a good source of 'supply' should it get to that

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

My fish still drink like fish.....and a good source of 'supply' should it get to that

There are two movies scenes, both involving Humphrey Bogart, which I find very relevant to this.

1. The Maltese Falcon. The "Fat Man" offers Sam Spade a drink. When the offer is accepted the "Fat Man" says with approval "Good. Never trust a man who doesn't drink".

2. The Big Sleep. Philip Marlowe is in the hothouse with the Colonel. Marlowe accepts a drink and is looked on enviously by the Colonel who explains that nowadays he drinks vicariously.

Absolutely no Shirley Temples involved in either scene, just neat spirit, bourbon IIRC. Ah those were the days when Americans drank bourbon neat, not the hipster craft beers in Irish pubs of today, pre lockdown of course.

Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


After recent events, my interest was taken with the decision making at the top levels of US government.

From this, and the recent interaction between Trump and Dr Brix, I am of the opinion that Fauci, Brix (and likely anyone else involved in the process) would say the sky is green if it kept Trump on side.

Trump's comments (well, tweets) on the subject are in the public domain.

If you read those comments as the comments of a leader that takes the situation and the advice seriously, then perhaps get your eyes tested.

I understand and agree that is a possibility, but I don't think so. For one thing, I don't think any such thing would keep Trump on side.

Trump is quite unusual, that's for sure. His manner of lashing out is probably not unique among US Presidents (thinking of Andrew Jackson for one example), but now we have Twitter, etc.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

They support him for diverse, disparate reasons, ranging from the Supreme Court to deeply held Pro-Life convictions to opposition to liberal ideologies to a distaste for the smug eliteness that too often permeates the left ("Deplorables," etc.).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mind_Messing offers the kind of contemptuous analysis that we've discussed the past week or so. He believes in his positions passionately but expresses himself in a manner that is off-putting ("get your eyes tested" and many, many other statements) to those Americans who support Trump. They support him for diverse, disparate reasons, ranging from the Supreme Court to deeply held Pro-Life convictions to opposition to liberal ideologies to a distaste for the smug eliteness that too often permeates the left ("Deplorables," etc.). If the left really wants to beat Trump, they'd be better served by not continuously overplaying their hands, driving swing voters and swing states to the Red. Democrat strategist James Carville had it exactly right in February, as quoted in here the middle of last week. Smugness and contemptuousness are remarkably irritating.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Let's use precise language: it would be more accurate to write that they support him to use the Supreme Court to roll back the power of federal agencies to regulate air/water standards, deny women their reproductive rights and a general desire to "own the libs" following years of frustration and establishment politics.

Then there's the underlying theme of racism that has ran through the Republican party for the past few years.

Yes, the US right has lofty and noble aspirations indeed.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Let's use precise language: it would be more accurate to write that they support him to use the Supreme Court to roll back the power of federal agencies to regulate air/water standards, deny women their reproductive rights and a general desire to "own the libs" following years of frustration and establishment politics.

Then there's the underlying theme of racism that has ran through the Republican party for the past few years.

Yes, the US right has lofty and noble aspirations indeed.

Wow. I admit I don't know Trump personally. The closest I ever was to him, was once in the 1980's I was one hole behind him on a golf course. But I know plenty of people that do in the business world. He has an enviable record of hiring minorities and putting women in charge and compensating them very highly. Before he ran for President he received accolades and awards for it from those communities.

I have never seen overt racism in my business life exhibited by a business. I am not saying it doesn't happen. Once, in the 80's I heard of a local police officer refusing to give mouth to mouth to an accident victim, in about six months that officer was fired. Of course I have heard stories of refusal to seat people in a restaurant, but I have also heard about the same number of stories discriminating against police officers.

I am old enough to remember what real pollution looked like the US. You could walk on Lake Erie, coke mills leaving a dusting on cars and window sills. Lead gasoline and lead paint. Strip mining. I feel bad for countries like China, Indonesia and India, you must really dislike them.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

quote:

ORIGINAL: fcooke

My fish still drink like fish.....and a good source of 'supply' should it get to that

There are two movies scenes, both involving Humphrey Bogart, which I find very relevant to this.

1. The Maltese Falcon. The "Fat Man" offers Sam Spade a drink. When the offer is accepted the "Fat Man" says with approval "Good. Never trust a man who doesn't drink".

2. The Big Sleep. Philip Marlowe is in the hothouse with the Colonel. Marlowe accepts a drink and is looked on enviously by the Colonel who explains that nowadays he drinks vicariously.

Absolutely no Shirley Temples involved in either scene, just neat spirit, bourbon IIRC. Ah those were the days when Americans drank bourbon neat, not the hipster craft beers in Irish pubs of today, pre lockdown of course.

Alfred

Hammett and Chandler. LA vs San Francisco. I think I liked the Continental Op best, short and pudgy for the time. Of course, you can't talk drinking without mentioning the Thin Man. Staggering amounts of drinking.

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


There are no digs. The personnel stuff is because I'm fed up with the BS you and others throw ardour at anyone who presents something slightly different than your world view, and is met with outrage without any foundation in fact. My default is to look widely for expert advice, objective information and base my posts on the best science has to offer in the moment. There are no politics in that, no agenda, just trying to understand.

This is objective information I'm getting from sources that are verified. How do you explain what Fauci said in this interview?

Have a look. One week to have 60% less deaths in this phase. Two weeks earlier to have 90% less. Even if there is some error margin in those projections, I'd certainly take 40-50% less deaths. Wouldn't you?

I posted Fauci's own comments quite a while back. CNN asked a hypothetical question, then used his answer far, far out of context. You cite an NYT article which compounds the same untruth. When one lies and the other swears to it, well, I guess you are right - that's verified!

You present the hypothetical as though fact. I presented that which has actually happened and you call it "without any foundation in fact".

Bye.

quote:

ORIGINAL: fabertong

I did ask Bill, our moderator, to have a look at this thread.

I suspect he may not have had time.....but I think it is a shame that this thread has become more than somewhat politically toxic.

I joined this community 16 years ago......it has made me laugh, enlightened me, entertained me...and even occasionally moved me...... from people from all countries/backgrounds/creeds/etc......but always people passionate about WitP.

The recent turn this thread has taken means I feel I must step away from the WitP family......except perhaps to look for future opponents.

Keep safe......be kind to each other.

This Penguin has to fly......bugger....I'm flightless!

quote:

ORIGINAL: fabertong

I did ask Bill, our moderator, to have a look at this thread.

I suspect he may not have had time.....but I think it is a shame that this thread has become more than somewhat politically toxic.

I joined this community 16 years ago......it has made me laugh, enlightened me, entertained me...and even occasionally moved me...... from people from all countries/backgrounds/creeds/etc......but always people passionate about WitP.

The recent turn this thread has taken means I feel I must step away from the WitP family......except perhaps to look for future opponents.

Keep safe......be kind to each other.

This Penguin has to fly......bugger....I'm flightless!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Let's use precise language: it would be more accurate to write that they support him to use the Supreme Court to roll back the power of federal agencies to regulate air/water standards, deny women their reproductive rights and a general desire to "own the libs" following years of frustration and establishment politics.

Then there's the underlying theme of racism that has ran through the Republican party for the past few years.

Yes, the US right has lofty and noble aspirations indeed.

Wow. I admit I don't know Trump personally. The closest I ever was to him, was once in the 1980's I was one hole behind him on a golf course. But I know plenty of people that do in the business world. He has an enviable record of hiring minorities and putting women in charge and compensating them very highly. Before he ran for President he received accolades and awards for it from those communities.

quote:

I have never seen overt racism in my business life exhibited by a business. I am not saying it doesn't happen. Once, in the 80's I heard of a local police officer refusing to give mouth to mouth to an accident victim, in about six months that officer was fired. Of course I have heard stories of refusal to seat people in a restaurant, but I have also heard about the same number of stories discriminating against police officers.

quote:

I am old enough to remember what real pollution looked like the US. You could walk on Lake Erie, coke mills leaving a dusting on cars and window sills. Lead gasoline and lead paint. Strip mining. I feel bad for countries like China, Indonesia and India, you must really dislike them.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Let's use precise language: it would be more accurate to write that they support him to use the Supreme Court to roll back the power of federal agencies to regulate air/water standards, deny women their reproductive rights and a general desire to "own the libs" following years of frustration and establishment politics.

Then there's the underlying theme of racism that has ran through the Republican party for the past few years.

Yes, the US right has lofty and noble aspirations indeed.

Wow. I admit I don't know Trump personally. The closest I ever was to him, was once in the 1980's I was one hole behind him on a golf course. But I know plenty of people that do in the business world. He has an enviable record of hiring minorities and putting women in charge and compensating them very highly. Before he ran for President he received accolades and awards for it from those communities.

I have never seen overt racism in my business life exhibited by a business. I am not saying it doesn't happen. Once, in the 80's I heard of a local police officer refusing to give mouth to mouth to an accident victim, in about six months that officer was fired. Of course I have heard stories of refusal to seat people in a restaurant, but I have also heard about the same number of stories discriminating against police officers.

I am old enough to remember what real pollution looked like the US. You could walk on Lake Erie, coke mills leaving a dusting on cars and window sills. Lead gasoline and lead paint. Strip mining. I feel bad for countries like China, Indonesia and India, you must really dislike them.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Let's use precise language: it would be more accurate to write that they support him to use the Supreme Court to roll back the power of federal agencies to regulate air/water standards, deny women their reproductive rights and a general desire to "own the libs" following years of frustration and establishment politics.

Then there's the underlying theme of racism that has ran through the Republican party for the past few years.

Yes, the US right has lofty and noble aspirations indeed.

Wow. I admit I don't know Trump personally. The closest I ever was to him, was once in the 1980's I was one hole behind him on a golf course. But I know plenty of people that do in the business world. He has an enviable record of hiring minorities and putting women in charge and compensating them very highly. Before he ran for President he received accolades and awards for it from those communities.

Can you provide evidence regarding promoting women and hiring minorities? If the awards are as you say they are (and given some of the background reading I've done regarding employment at Trump properties, I am somewhat cautious).

Trumps recent comments on minorities and women are both in the public domain. Let me say if he was what you claimed he was, then he has fallen far.

quote:

I have never seen overt racism in my business life exhibited by a business. I am not saying it doesn't happen. Once, in the 80's I heard of a local police officer refusing to give mouth to mouth to an accident victim, in about six months that officer was fired. Of course I have heard stories of refusal to seat people in a restaurant, but I have also heard about the same number of stories discriminating against police officers.

Rather than the double negative, try just the straight fact - racism does happen.

quote:

I am old enough to remember what real pollution looked like the US. You could walk on Lake Erie, coke mills leaving a dusting on cars and window sills. Lead gasoline and lead paint. Strip mining. I feel bad for countries like China, Indonesia and India, you must really dislike them.

Glad you agree the need to keep the legislation.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


It is a question of perspective.

My mother-in-law, if she was still alive, would have slapped you for suggesting that we were able to put things back together quickly...with respect to the great depression or the inflation of the 70s. Reuse, repair or do without, and sometime in the 70s she added recycle. A mindset that is totally alien to almost everyone alive today in the US.

Nothing wrong with being an optimist.

I lived with my grandmother from age 5 to 12 after my parents split. She was born in 1912 and went through the depression in her prime years of marriage and having kids. When I lived with her nearly half a century later she was still hoarding canned foods, clipping coupons, saying nearly everything she could use, sewing her own clothes and mending mine. She was the most positive person I have ever been around, and she knew how to have some fun.

So this is not alien to me, unfortunately. I still struggle not to "collect" too many interesting things I might use later, or scraps I could make into something else. I've just been remaking my garden shed and I took out a greenhouse. I sat on the glass for a long time, not knowing how I'd use it. I ended up raising the roof to put a clear-story in and learned to put glass, rout window frames and install them up high to give more light into the two rooms.

Just this week I cut down some of the excess to be recycled, but still kept eight sheets in case I need them. Silly, but it's my grandma in me.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


There are no digs. The personnel stuff is because I'm fed up with the BS you and others throw ardour at anyone who presents something slightly different than your world view, and is met with outrage without any foundation in fact. My default is to look widely for expert advice, objective information and base my posts on the best science has to offer in the moment. There are no politics in that, no agenda, just trying to understand.

This is objective information I'm getting from sources that are verified. How do you explain what Fauci said in this interview?

Have a look. One week to have 60% less deaths in this phase. Two weeks earlier to have 90% less. Even if there is some error margin in those projections, I'd certainly take 40-50% less deaths. Wouldn't you?

I posted Fauci's own comments quite a while back. CNN asked a hypothetical question, then used his answer far, far out of context. You cite an NYT article which compounds the same untruth. When one lies and the other swears to it, well, I guess you are right - that's verified!

You present the hypothetical as though fact. I presented that which has actually happened and you call it "without any foundation in fact".

Bye.

I did use those as examples, but it's easy to find the interview where he is responding to the NY Times article and confirms recommendations were given in late Feb.

Fauci does not deny when asked that he recommended social distancing guidelines in late February. He says they made a health recommendation. "Sometimes it's taken, sometimes it's not."

He was clearly saying the Science team had made a recommendation.

This is a larger version of the original quoted interview. Here is the interview:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/politics/anthony-fauci-pushback-coronavirus-measures-cnntv/index.html

By the third week of February, advisers had drafted a list of measures they believed would soon be necessary, like school closures, sports and concert cancellations and stay-at-home orders, but the president did not embrace them until mid-March.

Dr. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, said on Sunday that earlier imposition of such policies would have made a difference.

“I mean, obviously, you could logically say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives,” he said on “State of the Union” on CNN. “Obviously, no one is going to deny that. But what goes into those kinds of decisions is complicated. But you’re right. Obviously, if we had, right from the very beginning, shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different. But there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down.”

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Have you ever tried to load a dishwasher with someone? .

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Have you ever tried to load a dishwasher with someone?