Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is some margin for people to interpret data differently but probably not as much as feared. If an instruction were handed down by a governor or the head of a state health department to "cook the books" to paint a rosier picture, or a bleaker picture, there would be leaks, the press would get ahold of the story, and the instigator would be hounded or demolished. It's far more likely that variations in reporting/tabulating are good faith differences in how jurisdictions or entities or individuals do things. As we've noted before, there is merit in the statistics, especially as long as a given jurisdiction is consistent in reporting. Thus, if Belgium reports 200 deaths on April 15 and 25 today, it means something, even if Belgium counts differently than Denmark.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The nurse works at a Tula medical center.

In the mini-series about Chernobyl, the rough-and-ready miners are from Tula - the ones who end up working in the nude. It must be a regional "dialect."

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Guys, it's beyond Flu Season so of course we will see 'numbers' lesson. Regardless the 'curve' or '% detected' or 'numbers of ICU beds', I still see 40-70 people dieing each day in my home state. That is one State in the USA. So I can't buy into the Positive Side and don't see how anyone else can. Aren't we in the 'Lull in the Action' that we are all used to seeing on the front lines? Shouldn't we be preparing to protect our selves and especially our HQ's [Parents and Elderly] for when the enemy launches a new offensive? Shouldn't we be stocking up on ammo and conserving the rations? Giving our few vests to the women, children and elderly? Why are restaurants closed while some go hungry and some of us are paid to stay at home? Why not pay the reataurants to stay open so that they can deliver food to the hungry?
I wish there was, but it seems there is no SuperMan®. Who else can we rely on ?

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Guys, it's beyond Flu Season so of course we will see 'numbers' lesson. Regardless the 'curve' or '% detected' or 'numbers of ICU beds', I still see 40-70 people dieing each day in my home state. That is one State in the USA. So I can't buy into the Positive Side and don't see how anyone else can. Aren't we in the 'Lull in the Action' that we are all used to seeing on the front lines? Shouldn't we be preparing to protect our selves and especially our HQ's [Parents and Elderly] for when the enemy launches a new offensive? Shouldn't we be stocking up on ammo and conserving the rations? Giving our few vests to the women, children and elderly? Why are restaurants closed while some go hungry and some of us are paid to stay at home? Why not pay the reataurants to stay open so that they can deliver food to the hungry?
I wish there was, but it seems there is no SuperMan®. Who else can we rely on ?

It's a mindless and unrelenting microbe. It doesn't care what our opinion of it is and what numbers we report, what we open or what we close. If it can find a new host, it will. It certainly isn't gone. It just isn't spreading out of control in so many places. That doesn't mean it is under control. If it finds an uninfected population in a high enough concentration it will rampage. No, there is no Superman, there is only us, and that will have to be enough. Perhaps we are getting a bit closer to figure out how it best transmits. Our understanding of that has changed, hopefully evolved, over the last few months. So maybe not surface transmission or aerial transmission but person to person transmission? I think that is the latest understanding. OK, not sure I'm ready to get on an elevator with other people just yet. Hopefully we will get a better understanding of this before schools open. That is going to be a challenge because if it starts spreading through schools, even if the students are mostly carriers, its is going to be an ugly fall.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Guys, it's beyond Flu Season so of course we will see 'numbers' lesson. Regardless the 'curve' or '% detected' or 'numbers of ICU beds', I still see 40-70 people dieing each day in my home state. That is one State in the USA. So I can't buy into the Positive Side and don't see how anyone else can. Aren't we in the 'Lull in the Action' that we are all used to seeing on the front lines? Shouldn't we be preparing to protect our selves and especially our HQ's [Parents and Elderly] for when the enemy launches a new offensive? Shouldn't we be stocking up on ammo and conserving the rations? Giving our few vests to the women, children and elderly? Why are restaurants closed while some go hungry and some of us are paid to stay at home? Why not pay the reataurants to stay open so that they can deliver food to the hungry?
I wish there was, but it seems there is no SuperMan®. Who else can we rely on ?

It's a mindless and unrelenting microbe. It doesn't care what our opinion of it is and what numbers we report, what we open or what we close. If it can find a new host, it will. It certainly isn't gone. It just isn't spreading out of control in so many places. That doesn't mean it is under control. If it finds an uninfected population in a high enough concentration it will rampage. No, there is no Superman, there is only us, and that will have to be enough. Perhaps we are getting a bit closer to figure out how it best transmits. Our understanding of that has changed, hopefully evolved, over the last few months. So maybe not surface transmission or aerial transmission but person to person transmission? I think that is the latest understanding. OK, not sure I'm ready to get on an elevator with other people just yet. Hopefully we will get a better understanding of this before schools open. That is going to be a challenge because if it starts spreading through schools, even if the students are mostly carriers, its is going to be an ugly fall.

New reports suggesting children are about half as likely to contract Coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/22/children-covid-19-adults-data-coronavirus

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Will NYC become a ghost town? 80% of one landlord's retail tenants skipped April and May rent as companies 'take a field day' from office lease payments while weighing permanently working from home - triggering an 'alarming' drop in tax revenue

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8345543/NYC-businesses-companies-skip-rent-payments-shutdown-drags-on.html

The headline is a bit loaded. I'm sure one landlord has 80% of his retail tenants skipping payments. That does not mean that 80% of all retail tenants are skipping payments. One of my complaints about NYC is that in he last 10 years gentrification has eliminated so many mom and pop stores and along with that much of the street level charm of the city. So many small shops with charterer have been replaced by blocks of generic chain stores. I'd say that 60% of NYC's store front retail consists of chain stores. A typical block will have a Chase Bank, a CVS store, 2 or 3 chain fast food store (some are high end fast food but chains nonetheless), a TD Bank, A Duane Reade a Gap, a Sephora ect, ect,ect. The point is these are corporate entities and they are paying rent. So when this is all said and done there will be more chain stores and even less mom and pop stores. Add in restaurants and bars that will not make it through and you get more gentrification and homogenization. Manhattan and half of Brooklyn was already a lost cause before this started. Now commercial real estate is another thing entirely. In the short run things won't change much financially because big tenants are locked into long term leases (10 years is not unusual). Once those leases are however, who knows? The world will not be the same. The world of millions of people getting on trains and commuting into the city to sit at millions of cubes and then go out to restaurants and bars after work died in early 2020 and is never coming back. Another thing that will die is high rise condominiums full of tiny apartments that cost a fortune but you get to live in the city. Nobody wants those anymore. Commuter suburbs will be the big winner. After being locked in their tiny spaces for a few months the prospect of a house and yard is suddenly appealing. In this shattered economy house prices in the nicer suburbs have gone up instantly and some never even hang a shingle out saying for sale. It goes on the market and sells well above the asking price. Problem is those suburbs are well served by trains but people are not going to be comfortable getting on trains to commute but driving was impossible before so that is not really an option. They need to restore confidence in mass transit. NYC and the suburbs are coming back to life. The virus is on the run, hot spots get knocked down quickly, folks are good wearing masks and we have solid testing and contract tracing programs in place. Not quite there yet and we have to figure out how to reopen lots of stuff but the aggressive steps taken are staring to pay off in a big way. I'm looking forward to a few months of enjoying some of the museums and such before the tourists come back and clog everything up again. Tourism is one of he big industries here and it will be back all too soon. A necessary evil

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is some margin for people to interpret data differently but probably not as much as feared. If an instruction were handed down by a governor or the head of a state health department to "cook the books" to paint a rosier picture, or a bleaker picture, there would be leaks, the press would get ahold of the story, and the instigator would be hounded or demolished. It's far more likely that variations in reporting/tabulating are good faith differences in how jurisdictions or entities or individuals do things. As we've noted before, there is merit in the statistics, especially as long as a given jurisdiction is consistent in reporting. Thus, if Belgium reports 200 deaths on April 15 and 25 today, it means something, even if Belgium counts differently than Denmark.

I'm not suggesting that anyone is purposely cooking books or anything like that. I'm just saying this is a group that loves numbers, and just cautioning you that the basis for the numbers being released is NOT consistent and this is known. If you understand that statement, then you understand why I am urging caution.

The data is being released because of the need to provide something to the public that they can understand. It isn't being done to intentionally mislead, its just that at this point even the Wharton graduates need another couple of months to get all the data onto a consistent basis, and then it will take another month to get the required 3-4 peer comparables to confirm. My guess on this is Aug, but it might slip another month or two.

Until then, we use other, more consistent data to infer what we need to know. You can't explain this to the masses, it isn't that it's rocket science, it actually is considerably more advanced mathematics than that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Guys, it's beyond Flu Season so of course we will see 'numbers' lesson. Regardless the 'curve' or '% detected' or 'numbers of ICU beds', I still see 40-70 people dieing each day in my home state. That is one State in the USA. So I can't buy into the Positive Side and don't see how anyone else can. Aren't we in the 'Lull in the Action' that we are all used to seeing on the front lines? Shouldn't we be preparing to protect our selves and especially our HQ's [Parents and Elderly] for when the enemy launches a new offensive? Shouldn't we be stocking up on ammo and conserving the rations? Giving our few vests to the women, children and elderly? Why are restaurants closed while some go hungry and some of us are paid to stay at home? Why not pay the reataurants to stay open so that they can deliver food to the hungry?
I wish there was, but it seems there is no SuperMan®. Who else can we rely on ?

It's a mindless and unrelenting microbe. It doesn't care what our opinion of it is and what numbers we report, what we open or what we close. If it can find a new host, it will. It certainly isn't gone. It just isn't spreading out of control in so many places. That doesn't mean it is under control. If it finds an uninfected population in a high enough concentration it will rampage. No, there is no Superman, there is only us, and that will have to be enough. Perhaps we are getting a bit closer to figure out how it best transmits. Our understanding of that has changed, hopefully evolved, over the last few months. So maybe not surface transmission or aerial transmission but person to person transmission? I think that is the latest understanding. OK, not sure I'm ready to get on an elevator with other people just yet. Hopefully we will get a better understanding of this before schools open. That is going to be a challenge because if it starts spreading through schools, even if the students are mostly carriers, its is going to be an ugly fall.

New reports suggesting children are about half as likely to contract Coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/22/children-covid-19-adults-data-coronavirus

Perhaps their theory is correct. In practice, school employees that come in contact with school children die in large numbers. 65 in NYC including 28 teachers. They closed he schools fairly early but if you knowingly open them again and the virus is still around should we expect a different outcome? Can you test and protect 1 million students and teachers? Not perfectly. And when there seems to be some new pathology that effects children https://abc7ny.com/teacher-deaths-by-covid-19-teachers-killed-coronavirus-department-of-education-nyc/6133083/

quote:

The coronavirus pandemic has resulted in stay-at-home orders that are putting young children at risk of contracting measles, polio and diphtheria, according to a report released Friday by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Routine childhood immunizations in at least 68 countries have been put on hold due to the unprecedented spread of COVID-19 worldwide, making children under the age of one more vulnerable.

More than half of 129 counties, where immunization data was readily available, reported moderate, severe or total suspensions of vaccinations during March and April.

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is some margin for people to interpret data differently but probably not as much as feared. If an instruction were handed down by a governor or the head of a state health department to "cook the books" to paint a rosier picture, or a bleaker picture, there would be leaks, the press would get ahold of the story, and the instigator would be hounded or demolished. It's far more likely that variations in reporting/tabulating are good faith differences in how jurisdictions or entities or individuals do things. As we've noted before, there is merit in the statistics, especially as long as a given jurisdiction is consistent in reporting. Thus, if Belgium reports 200 deaths on April 15 and 25 today, it means something, even if Belgium counts differently than Denmark.

I'm not suggesting that anyone is purposely cooking books or anything like that. I'm just saying this is a group that loves numbers, and just cautioning you that the basis for the numbers being released is NOT consistent and this is known. If you understand that statement, then you understand why I am urging caution.

The data is being released because of the need to provide something to the public that they can understand. It isn't being done to intentionally mislead, its just that at this point even the Wharton graduates need another couple of months to get all the data onto a consistent basis, and then it will take another month to get the required 3-4 peer comparables to confirm. My guess on this is Aug, but it might slip another month or two.

Until then, we use other, more consistent data to infer what we need to know. You can't explain this to the masses, it isn't that it's rocket science, it actually is considerably more advanced mathematics than that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Guys, it's beyond Flu Season so of course we will see 'numbers' lesson. Regardless the 'curve' or '% detected' or 'numbers of ICU beds', I still see 40-70 people dieing each day in my home state. That is one State in the USA. So I can't buy into the Positive Side and don't see how anyone else can. Aren't we in the 'Lull in the Action' that we are all used to seeing on the front lines? Shouldn't we be preparing to protect our selves and especially our HQ's [Parents and Elderly] for when the enemy launches a new offensive? Shouldn't we be stocking up on ammo and conserving the rations? Giving our few vests to the women, children and elderly? Why are restaurants closed while some go hungry and some of us are paid to stay at home? Why not pay the reataurants to stay open so that they can deliver food to the hungry?
I wish there was, but it seems there is no SuperMan®. Who else can we rely on ?

It's a mindless and unrelenting microbe. It doesn't care what our opinion of it is and what numbers we report, what we open or what we close. If it can find a new host, it will. It certainly isn't gone. It just isn't spreading out of control in so many places. That doesn't mean it is under control. If it finds an uninfected population in a high enough concentration it will rampage. No, there is no Superman, there is only us, and that will have to be enough. Perhaps we are getting a bit closer to figure out how it best transmits. Our understanding of that has changed, hopefully evolved, over the last few months. So maybe not surface transmission or aerial transmission but person to person transmission? I think that is the latest understanding. OK, not sure I'm ready to get on an elevator with other people just yet. Hopefully we will get a better understanding of this before schools open. That is going to be a challenge because if it starts spreading through schools, even if the students are mostly carriers, its is going to be an ugly fall.

New reports suggesting children are about half as likely to contract Coronavirus.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/22/children-covid-19-adults-data-coronavirus

Perhaps their theory is correct. In practice, school employees that come in contact with school children die in large numbers. 65 in NYC including 28 teachers. They closed he schools fairly early but if you knowingly open them again and the virus is still around should we expect a different outcome? Can you test and protect 1 million students and teachers? Not perfectly. And when there seems to be some new pathology that effects children https://abc7ny.com/teacher-deaths-by-covid-19-teachers-killed-coronavirus-department-of-education-nyc/6133083/

Believe me I think about these things; I'm a teacher. In a school of 1400+ kids from K-12. Another 200+ adults in the building.

So 65 adults died I nNYC from exposure in schools, but is this a higher percentage than the rate of mortality for all adults of those age groups in NYC during the last three months? Those teachers probably also took the subway and did a lot of other things that could expose them, just like teachers here in London.

Schools have been opened elsewhere without difficulty. If case numbers are low then all of this gets easier with testing, tracing and tracking. If case numbers are high then anyone going back to work anywhere into an interior space with a lot of other people would be in danger.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yesterday, radio news said that the Mall of American had missed a mortgage payment or two. The loan is more than a billion dollars.

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There is some margin for people to interpret data differently but probably not as much as feared. If an instruction were handed down by a governor or the head of a state health department to "cook the books" to paint a rosier picture, or a bleaker picture, there would be leaks, the press would get ahold of the story, and the instigator would be hounded or demolished. It's far more likely that variations in reporting/tabulating are good faith differences in how jurisdictions or entities or individuals do things. As we've noted before, there is merit in the statistics, especially as long as a given jurisdiction is consistent in reporting. Thus, if Belgium reports 200 deaths on April 15 and 25 today, it means something, even if Belgium counts differently than Denmark.

I'm not suggesting that anyone is purposely cooking books or anything like that. I'm just saying this is a group that loves numbers, and just cautioning you that the basis for the numbers being released is NOT consistent and this is known. If you understand that statement, then you understand why I am urging caution.

The data is being released because of the need to provide something to the public that they can understand. It isn't being done to intentionally mislead, its just that at this point even the Wharton graduates need another couple of months to get all the data onto a consistent basis, and then it will take another month to get the required 3-4 peer comparables to confirm. My guess on this is Aug, but it might slip another month or two.

Until then, we use other, more consistent data to infer what we need to know. You can't explain this to the masses, it isn't that it's rocket science, it actually is considerably more advanced mathematics than that.

quote:

SARS-CoV-2 RNA (COVID-19)
SARS-CoV-2 RNA absent. This result does not rule out
COVID-19 in the patient, as the sensitivity of the test
depends on the timing of the specimen collection and the
quality of the specimen. Result should be correlated with
patient's history and clinical presentation.

This test using the cobas SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche Molecular
Systems, Inc.) performed on the cobas 6800 System
.
.
.
Test Performed by:
Mayo Clinic Laboratories

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

My test:

quote:

SARS-CoV-2 RNA (COVID-19)
SARS-CoV-2 RNA absent. This result does not rule out
COVID-19 in the patient, as the sensitivity of the test
depends on the timing of the specimen collection and the
quality of the specimen. Result should be correlated with
patient's history and clinical presentation.

This test using the cobas SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche Molecular
Systems, Inc.) performed on the cobas 6800 System
.
.
.
Test Performed by:
Mayo Clinic Laboratories

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The report you linked to (by Channel 11 news) is incorrect or incomplete and therefore misleading.

The increase in positive test results (new cases) has been modest and seems to be tied to an increase in testing rather than widespread outbreaks. The number of hospitalizations (serious cases) and deaths continue to decline. As for the 78 deaths referred to in the linked story, that doesn't match the state department of health statistics, which currently shows 11 on the day in question, May 22 (and a high of 55 on April 16).

Here's a CNN report yesterday that gives a pretty good overview of the situation here, which continues to be encouraging: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/georgia-coronavirus/index.html