Lokasenna
Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012 From: Iowan in MD/DC Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel The baseball economic model is probably too complex to solve right now, given the interplay between stadium occupancy, travel, television revenue, and lingering and increasing uncertainties about the virus. Even if baseball could figure out a way to balance decreases in revenue against payroll and related expenses, the possibility of a renewed outbreak shutting everything down again is a back-breaker. They'd restart if there was a way to figure things out, but they probably can't. Too many uncertainties in too complex a situation. It's not too complex - it's just too opaque. The owners refuse to let anyone see any of their books. It's pretty telling that they claimed they'd lose 640K per game with no fans in the stands, and when the MLBPA asked them for even basic accounting to back this up, MLB just ignored the request. Some of the writers over at Baseball Prospectus have dug into the economics with as much information as is publicly available and come to similar conclusions: essentially, that baseball is plenty profitable even if you ignore the non-liquid profits from the monopoly investment. But really, there's just one trend that you need to look at that explains what's going on with the MLBPA/MLB fight. There are all kinds of other details, like the trend towards exploiting young talent at low costs, service time manipulation to delay free agency, tanking and/or simply not trying to win (which includes spending a couple million bucks on a free agent who is otherwise going jobless and would make your team better), and so on. But all of those things really just add up to the share of MLB revenue that players take home: it's decreasing. The 30 (ish) billionaires who own the teams are sucking up an increasing share of the pie, even though the players are the product. Even as baseball has experienced record revenues (most recently in 2018 and 2019), the average MLB salary has decreased. FWIW, some solid numbers I've seen is that gate receipts + merchandise (which wouldn't be zero in fan-less games because online ordering is still a thing) makes up about 40% of MLB revenues. Keep in mind that fan-less games also cost much less to put on, because you don't need to pay thousands of employees $15/hr to staff the stadium. Further FWIW, the game Out Of The Park Baseball has a pretty good representation of actual baseball finances (as well as performance projection...). It's easy to see how ticket revenue isn't really that big of a deal, even for small market teams. quote:
ORIGINAL: fcooke I think the player's union and the owners are causing most of the grief. I think most of today's players (not all) would get out there and play, just like most of the legacy players would have. The players are remarkably united in this instance, actually.
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