Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: 39battalion


I was surprised to see somebody in an earlier post citing The Guardian as a source of reliable non-political information.

I lived in London for many years (most recently in 2017) and I am familiar with the British press. The Guardian is not an authoritative, objective source of information. It is the paper of choice for those with left wing, and sometimes extreme left wing, views.

It promotes identity politics, victimhood and cancel culture. In these respects it is a print version of the twitter sewer.

In this discussion it is best to reference reputable medical sources of information.

This is the kind of comment we don't need. You can choose your information sources as you wish, but this is not a thread about media slant. Please leave this out and if you have information to contradict something that is posted please offer it with sources.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

So people have rights until there is a pandemic or another emergency.

The right to life is listed before liberty and happiness in the constitution.

Also pretty hard to have the last two without the first :)

Then the ability to earn a living which makes it hard to have a complete shutdown. That is why what the medical doctors recommend can't always happen.

It can happen. It has in the UK.

It is ideologically unappealing to some to do so, however.

It did not happen in the UK or elsewhere. A lockdown, a complete shutdown, means that no one at all leaves their dwelling. Not for any reason at all. That would be best to prevent the spread but it won't happen.

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Within countries there has been considerable variation in mortality; in the UK, every local authority area (NUTS3) experienced excess mortality during the peak weeks of excess mortality (week ending 3 April to week ending 8 May 2020), while other Western European countries experienced more geographically localised excess mortality.

Analysis of Weeks 8 to 24 (week ending 21 February to week ending 12 June) at local authority level (NUTS3) across Europe shows that the highest rates of excess mortality were in areas in Central Spain and Northern Italy; Bergamo (Northern Italy) had the highest peak excess mortality of 847.7% (week ending 20 March) compared with the highest in the UK, Brent at 357.5% (week ending 17 April).

Looking at major cities, the highest peak excess mortality was in Madrid at 432.7% (week ending 27 March) while in the UK, Birmingham had the highest peak excess mortality of any major British city at 249.7% (week ending 17 April).

Of the four nations of the UK, England had the highest peak excess mortality (107.6% in week ending 17 April).

England saw the second highest national peak of excess mortality during Weeks 8 to 24 (week ending 21 February to week ending 12 June), compared with 21 European countries, with only Spain seeing a higher peak; at the equivalent of local authority level, areas of Central Spain and Northern Italy saw the highest peaks of excess mortality and exceeded any parts of the UK.

While England did not have the highest peak mortality, it did have the longest continuous period of excess mortality of any country compared, resulting in England having the highest levels of excess mortality in Europe for the period as a whole.

This article looks at all-cause mortality as a comparable international indicator of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and does not specifically analyse deaths involving COVID-19; deaths are shown for the UK countries by date of registration.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

So people have rights until there is a pandemic or another emergency.

The right to life is listed before liberty and happiness in the constitution.

Also pretty hard to have the last two without the first :)

Then the ability to earn a living which makes it hard to have a complete shutdown. That is why what the medical doctors recommend can't always happen.

It can happen. It has in the UK.

It is ideologically unappealing to some to do so, however.

It did not happen in the UK or elsewhere. A lockdown, a complete shutdown, means that no one at all leaves their dwelling. Not for any reason at all. That would be best to prevent the spread but it won't happen.

It happened in Spain and Italy, with police enforcement in Spain.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

In an effort to move the discussion onto a fairly safe ground, ONS put out a publication yesterday doing some European comparisons for excess mortality for the first six months of 2020.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/comparisonsofallcausemortalitybetweeneuropeancountriesandregions/januarytojune2020

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Within countries there has been considerable variation in mortality; in the UK, every local authority area (NUTS3) experienced excess mortality during the peak weeks of excess mortality (week ending 3 April to week ending 8 May 2020), while other Western European countries experienced more geographically localised excess mortality.

Analysis of Weeks 8 to 24 (week ending 21 February to week ending 12 June) at local authority level (NUTS3) across Europe shows that the highest rates of excess mortality were in areas in Central Spain and Northern Italy; Bergamo (Northern Italy) had the highest peak excess mortality of 847.7% (week ending 20 March) compared with the highest in the UK, Brent at 357.5% (week ending 17 April).

Looking at major cities, the highest peak excess mortality was in Madrid at 432.7% (week ending 27 March) while in the UK, Birmingham had the highest peak excess mortality of any major British city at 249.7% (week ending 17 April).

Of the four nations of the UK, England had the highest peak excess mortality (107.6% in week ending 17 April).

England saw the second highest national peak of excess mortality during Weeks 8 to 24 (week ending 21 February to week ending 12 June), compared with 21 European countries, with only Spain seeing a higher peak; at the equivalent of local authority level, areas of Central Spain and Northern Italy saw the highest peaks of excess mortality and exceeded any parts of the UK.

While England did not have the highest peak mortality, it did have the longest continuous period of excess mortality of any country compared, resulting in England having the highest levels of excess mortality in Europe for the period as a whole.

This article looks at all-cause mortality as a comparable international indicator of the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and does not specifically analyse deaths involving COVID-19; deaths are shown for the UK countries by date of registration.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Tough one. Generally speaking, most govts could could have done a better job IMO. But I agree with RJ - there is no reason for the govts to take on overly OTT restrictions on activity. I know the side effects of lockdown are killing people. Not hitting the news yet for some reason but it is happening.

Hopefully that is not considered political.

Actually it's all over the news that there are negative effects from lockdowns. Just do some searching. It might not be in the top three articles, but there is something virtually every day.

There are also some benefits to reduced mobility, industrial output and other effects of measures put in place. I've posted a number of studies in both threads on this subject showing evidence of health improvements for those vulnerable to pollution, reduction in stress levels and overall better physical health from getting exercise and using physical rather than mechanical mass transport.

It's hard to know how it all balances out and we likely won't know until much later if at all the real balancing of effects.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Tough one. Generally speaking, most govts could could have done a better job IMO. But I agree with RJ - there is no reason for the govts to take on overly OTT restrictions on activity. I know the side effects of lockdown are killing people. Not hitting the news yet for some reason but it is happening.

Hopefully that is not considered political.

Actually it's all over the news that there are negative effects from lockdowns. Just do some searching. It might not be in the top three articles, but there is something virtually every day.

There are also some benefits to reduced mobility, industrial output and other effects of measures put in place. I've posted a number of studies in both threads on this subject showing evidence of health improvements for those vulnerable to pollution, reduction in stress levels and overall better physical health from getting exercise and using physical rather than mechanical mass transport.

It's hard to know how it all balances out and we likely won't know until much later if at all the real balancing of effects.

Well Obvert we are in disagreement here. I know what is going on, and you confirm that it is really not being reported on and placed front and center in the press/media with your 'just search for it' comment. And lower stress? Most people I speak with are highly stressed. Lost jobs, lower income (in some cases higher income, but whatever). I agree on the physical exercise thing. My dogs are driving me nuts because we have so many more cyclists, joggers, walkers going by the house each day and they like to warn me of the danger.

And we will never really know how it balances out because the data will be twisted by whoever does the study and what their goals are.

Lower industrial output is wonderful. Trying to buy an appliance or building materials today. Good luck.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Tough one. Generally speaking, most govts could could have done a better job IMO. But I agree with RJ - there is no reason for the govts to take on overly OTT restrictions on activity. I know the side effects of lockdown are killing people. Not hitting the news yet for some reason but it is happening.

Hopefully that is not considered political.

Actually it's all over the news that there are negative effects from lockdowns. Just do some searching. It might not be in the top three articles, but there is something virtually every day.

There are also some benefits to reduced mobility, industrial output and other effects of measures put in place. I've posted a number of studies in both threads on this subject showing evidence of health improvements for those vulnerable to pollution, reduction in stress levels and overall better physical health from getting exercise and using physical rather than mechanical mass transport.

It's hard to know how it all balances out and we likely won't know until much later if at all the real balancing of effects.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Yes I recall you like hunting in packs. Maybe makes you feel big.

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As for your post, if you want to comment on someone's post have the common courtesy to understand the point first.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Tough one. Generally speaking, most govts could could have done a better job IMO. But I agree with RJ - there is no reason for the govts to take on overly OTT restrictions on activity. I know the side effects of lockdown are killing people. Not hitting the news yet for some reason but it is happening.

Hopefully that is not considered political.

Actually it's all over the news that there are negative effects from lockdowns. Just do some searching. It might not be in the top three articles, but there is something virtually every day.

There are also some benefits to reduced mobility, industrial output and other effects of measures put in place. I've posted a number of studies in both threads on this subject showing evidence of health improvements for those vulnerable to pollution, reduction in stress levels and overall better physical health from getting exercise and using physical rather than mechanical mass transport.

It's hard to know how it all balances out and we likely won't know until much later if at all the real balancing of effects.

Well Obvert we are in disagreement here. I know what is going on, and you confirm that it is really not being reported on and placed front and center in the press/media with your 'just search for it' comment. And lower stress? Most people I speak with are highly stressed. Lost jobs, lower income (in some cases higher income, but whatever). I agree on the physical exercise thing. My dogs are driving me nuts because we have so many more cyclists, joggers, walkers going by the house each day and they like to warn me of the danger.

And we will never really know how it balances out because the data will be twisted by whoever does the study and what their goals are.

Lower industrial output is wonderful. Trying to buy an appliance or building materials today. Good luck.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you want to see the results of me using physical transport instead of a mechanical transport, how about I just post a picture or more of my right foot?

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you want to see the results of me using physical transport instead of a mechanical transport, how about I just post a picture or more of my right foot?

You're a very insignificant point of data. People who have similar mobility concerns are a larger data point, but still not what we're talking about, but I think you know that and you're simply deflecting.

Anyway. Here is some evidence that people are taking this seriously.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720333842

In preliminary evaluations, a decline in anthropogenic air pollution has been observed in nations responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. The NASA earth observatory found satellite derived concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in eastern and central China from early 2020 were 10–30% lower than comparable periods in 2019 (Patel, 2020). The European Environment Agency found a similar large drop in air pollution across European cities (European Environmental Agency, 2020). From March 16–22, 2020, it was reported that Bergamo, Italy and Barcelona, Spain showed NO2 declines of 47% and 55% compared to the same dates in 2019. However, while remote sensed air pollution levels provide a valuable estimate of broad exposures, there is an inherent value for corroboration of pollution trends using in-situ measurements (Bechle et al., 2013). Ground-based measurements represent gold standards for pollutant concentrations and are the tool for regulatory compliance. Measured concentrations should be used to evaluate air pollution changes, particularly where robust monitoring networks exist.

Our investigation explores the real-time impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on measured U.S. air pollution using the federal air monitoring network. We hypothesize sharp decreases in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and NO2 during COVID-19 pandemic corresponding with reduced traffic and mandated business closures.

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

69 - I think you are missing the fact that govts have proven they have no better access to data than individuals. Actually, they do, but have demonstrated they don't know how to use that data. So people are a bit disdainful of their their directives, particularly when you have the minister in the UK clearly ignoring them. leadership at its best. and I feel people will give up certain liberties as long as it is proven that it will help. But faith in leadership over here is really low now, and wasn't great to start with. And if you don't think govt won't use use this as an opportunity to impose more 'rules' on behaviour, well I think that might might be naive.

Beware the Navy cook. Watched the Hunt this week, I enjoy that movie. Didn't Steven S play a cook on one of the Iowas a while back as well (not a movie even remotely as good as the Hunt).

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

I still have my first 'new' car, an 88 SAAB 900 turbo. It is basically my pick-up. It can haul almost anything. Makes the newer Audi SQ5 look near useless when it comes to cargo. And the SAAB is a stick. I love driving manual. In any case it would allow me to drive the 10 klicks and pick up the freezer. But if you are not going to pay for delivery it sounds like you need to borrow a friend's vehicle. I had an AC unit keel over a few weeks ago - no replacements to be found. Not a biggie since it is a guest bedroom and for this human there are only a few nights in the the summer where AC is needed (desired). I find a night of sleeping in AC leaves me quite sniffly in the AM.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: fcooke

Tough one. Generally speaking, most govts could could have done a better job IMO. But I agree with RJ - there is no reason for the govts to take on overly OTT restrictions on activity. I know the side effects of lockdown are killing people. Not hitting the news yet for some reason but it is happening.

Hopefully that is not considered political.

Actually it's all over the news that there are negative effects from lockdowns. Just do some searching. It might not be in the top three articles, but there is something virtually every day.

There are also some benefits to reduced mobility, industrial output and other effects of measures put in place. I've posted a number of studies in both threads on this subject showing evidence of health improvements for those vulnerable to pollution, reduction in stress levels and overall better physical health from getting exercise and using physical rather than mechanical mass transport.

It's hard to know how it all balances out and we likely won't know until much later if at all the real balancing of effects.

Well Obvert we are in disagreement here. I know what is going on, and you confirm that it is really not being reported on and placed front and center in the press/media with your 'just search for it' comment. And lower stress? Most people I speak with are highly stressed. Lost jobs, lower income (in some cases higher income, but whatever). I agree on the physical exercise thing. My dogs are driving me nuts because we have so many more cyclists, joggers, walkers going by the house each day and they like to warn me of the danger.

And we will never really know how it balances out because the data will be twisted by whoever does the study and what their goals are.

Lower industrial output is wonderful. Trying to buy an appliance or building materials today. Good luck.

When you say "I know what is going on" that's not a definitive well-supported and backed up argument, so provide your evidence. And balance it with evidence about the positive effects of reduced movement, industry, pollution, and other surprisingly positive outcomes from this past few months.

We aren't in disagreement yet because you haven't really made a valid argument yet.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If you want to see the results of me using physical transport instead of a mechanical transport, how about I just post a picture or more of my right foot?

You're a very insignificant point of data. People who have similar mobility concerns are a larger data point, but still not what we're talking about, but I think you know that and you're simply deflecting.

Anyway. Here is some evidence that people are taking this seriously.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720333842

In preliminary evaluations, a decline in anthropogenic air pollution has been observed in nations responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. The NASA earth observatory found satellite derived concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in eastern and central China from early 2020 were 10–30% lower than comparable periods in 2019 (Patel, 2020). The European Environment Agency found a similar large drop in air pollution across European cities (European Environmental Agency, 2020). From March 16–22, 2020, it was reported that Bergamo, Italy and Barcelona, Spain showed NO2 declines of 47% and 55% compared to the same dates in 2019. However, while remote sensed air pollution levels provide a valuable estimate of broad exposures, there is an inherent value for corroboration of pollution trends using in-situ measurements (Bechle et al., 2013). Ground-based measurements represent gold standards for pollutant concentrations and are the tool for regulatory compliance. Measured concentrations should be used to evaluate air pollution changes, particularly where robust monitoring networks exist.

Our investigation explores the real-time impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on measured U.S. air pollution using the federal air monitoring network. We hypothesize sharp decreases in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and NO2 during COVID-19 pandemic corresponding with reduced traffic and mandated business closures.

I am not an insignificant point of data. I am unique and I am very significant. There are many people as well who have mobility issues - whether they know them or not. Just like people with hardening of the arteries and high blood pressure who take unprescribed narcotics and meth then have a heart attack. Or the person who celebrated being drafted to the NBA who snorted cocaine for the first time ever - he did not know that he was allergic to cocaine and it ruined his whole day.

As far as NO2, it combines with H2O and forms nitric acid which falls to earth and is a plant fertilizer. Just like SO2 becomes SO3, combines with water which falls to earth and is a fertilizer. Both of those contribute to plant growth, absorbing CO2 and helping to produce food.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

This looks very interesting. A very clear breakdown of how immunity works, how vaccines can be developed to take advantage of weak points in a virus, and how we shouldn't worry that we won't have immunity if we've recently had this particular disease.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response.

Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand.

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ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

This looks very interesting. A very clear breakdown of how immunity works, how vaccines can be developed to take advantage of weak points in a virus, and how we shouldn't worry that we won't have immunity if we've recently had this particular disease.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response.

Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand.

I had reported on the B cells earlier but this adds new information. Thank you.

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ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

I'd not mind some Aliens...would be welcome break from Covid, locusts, murder hornets etc.....

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Long Island checking in......Sharks, way more sharks than a normal year. Ocean beaches closed to swimming multiple times a day. Bull sharks so far, which are nasty. Great Whites usually are here in numbers in August.

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: obvert

This looks very interesting. A very clear breakdown of how immunity works, how vaccines can be developed to take advantage of weak points in a virus, and how we shouldn't worry that we won't have immunity if we've recently had this particular disease.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response.

Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand.

I had reported on the B cells earlier but this adds new information. Thank you.

The damn virus has a bad habit of mutating frequently. I haven't seen any research on whether antibodies are still effective on all the variants. Since it would be unethical to give someone all the virus variants, we would have to do a huge amount of research on large pools of people who have had the virus. That won't likely happen soon - too many more urgent things for scientists to look at right now. Not trying to be a killjoy on our hopes, but we need to temper our expectations and not assume that those who have had it can go about with no precautions.

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ORIGINAL: obvert

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

This looks very interesting. A very clear breakdown of how immunity works, how vaccines can be developed to take advantage of weak points in a virus, and how we shouldn't worry that we won't have immunity if we've recently had this particular disease.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/opinion/coronavirus-antibodies-immunity.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

That antibodies decrease once an infection recedes isn’t a sign that they are failing: It’s a normal step in the usual course of an immune response.

Nor does a waning antibody count mean waning immunity: The memory B cells that first produced those antibodies are still around, and standing ready to churn out new batches of antibodies on demand.

I had reported on the B cells earlier but this adds new information. Thank you.

The damn virus has a bad habit of mutating frequently. I haven't seen any research on whether antibodies are still effective on all the variants. Since it would be unethical to give someone all the virus variants, we would have to do a huge amount of research on large pools of people who have had the virus. That won't likely happen soon - too many more urgent things for scientists to look at right now. Not trying to be a killjoy on our hopes, but we need to temper our expectations and not assume that those who have had it can go about with no precautions.

It is actually showing to mutate much less quickly than other viruses. In the article it mentions how it's not HIV, which does have such quick mutations it's impossible to create a vaccine.

The variants that exist now don't differ enough in ways that would inhibit current vaccines in trials from working. In fact vaccines are being made for virtually all areas and methods of fighting the virus, and there are many parts that can be used. Only very minor mutations are happening with Coronavirus and in areas that would not change either natural or vaccine immunity as scientists now see it, from what I've read.

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

I'd not mind some Aliens...would be welcome break from Covid, locusts, murder hornets etc.....

Long Island checking in......Sharks, way more sharks than a normal year. Ocean beaches closed to swimming multiple times a day. Bull sharks so far, which are nasty. Great Whites usually are here in numbers in August.