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RE: The question to ask about The Italians

 
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RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 9:37:54 AM   
rico21


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Joined: 3/11/2016
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.


Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!





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(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 151
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 9:38:01 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: IslandInland

This thread gets better.

Absolute bullshit for the most part but it's fantastic!

I love it.


Keep it going....


Where's the monarch-worshipping warspite1 when you need him?



warspite1

Well I am glad you've had some enjoyment from this thread. Perhaps they will give us our own series and put it out on Dave.



_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to IslandInland)
Post #: 152
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 10:16:27 AM   
rico21


Posts: 2990
Joined: 3/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.


Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!










Attachment (1)

(in reply to rico21)
Post #: 153
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 10:50:52 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

[Turns to face camera] Well, that was an interesting set of posts wasn’t it boys and girls?

I note the following in particular:

quote:

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out. None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.


I was involved in a what-if back in the day in the WITP-AE thread and had this type of comment levelled in my direction. Funny because having so stated my shortcomings, the poster then proceeded to write his view which almost entirely copied what I’d said….
So the same in this thread. I am accused of:

quote:

“…completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints”


I am not really sure how many times I can raise these points in this thread – I am not going to go back and give every example of what I’ve discussed because you’ve not had the courtesy to acknowledge them at this stage so have no reason to believe you would do so, even when pointed out. But once Curtis Lemay came in with the ‘blitz’ post, I’ve been raising these issues (Posts 64, 77, 80, 85, 89, 90, 95, 102, 106, 108, 117, 122, 124 and 132 as well as mentioning them while this thread dealt with Italy initially).

quote:

“The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy”.


Not a claim I have in any way shape or form made. If you are going to pick up on people’s points then kindly take it up with them. Indeed I registered my disagreement to this methodology in Post 90.

There is a section headed Spain and a load of questions. As per post 134, having got at least a start of a timeline rather than some vague notion, I asked Curtis Lemay for his comments and he has not yet had a chance to answer (assuming of course that he wishes to).

But you’ve gone ahead anyway, and sought out questions yourself, which of course is absolutely fine – but in doing so please don’t suggest many have not been raised by me previously (with others to follow if Curtis Lemay responds). I mentioned in Posts 89 and 106 that all that has been given is a ‘broad brush blitzkrieg through Spain and Turkey’. I’ve asked for details and a case to be made.

quote:

“In 1940, a German attack on Spain can only be launched from the very narrow strip of French Atlantic coastline occupied by the Germans under their agreement with Vichy France”.


Please see Post 134. Point 6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?

quote:

“Assume against the facts, that the Iberian peninsula is fully captured (that includes Gibraltar) before the end of 1940. That definitely leaves the Azores. Madeira, Cape Verde Islands, and the Canaries out of German reach, Wouldn't be long before they were under British control”.


I have mentioned this (Post 89 amongst others) – and how the loss of Gibraltar isn’t necessarily the game changer people think it would be (it depends how Gibraltar is lost and whose side Spain is on).

As for Portuguese territory that would depend on how this plays out (mentioned in Post 102).

quote:

“Suggestion has been made that Spain would be pillaged…..Then there is the question of tungsten which Germany was heavily dependent on Spanish production”.


I’ve raised both the resources from Portugal/Spain (Post 85) and Turkey’s Chromium (Post 102)

quote:

“Things like food and petrol. Funny thing about a population which lacks food. The civilians tend to get very angry. These years are known in Spain as the hungry years for very good reason”.

I don’t know in how many posts I’ve raised food as an issue – both for Spain and indeed Vichy – Posts 89 and 124 being but two.

quote:

“utilising naval mobility”


Please see Post 134. Point 8. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence. This is also why the German anti-shipping squadrons – and their employment – is so vital in any discussion (Post 132 and others).

So, please don’t be so arrogant as to suggest that only you know what you are talking about when it comes to World War II.

[quote]None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding


Well you’ve repeated a lot of what I’ve said so if all I’ve written is amateurish and unrealistic, then I guess you are in good company.



warspite1,

This is so typical of you.

1. Not once have I mentioned your name.

2. Have I missed a claim from you that your comments are supported by commercial wargame designers? I don't think so which brings up the interesting psychological question; why are you taking credit for someone else's statement otherwise on what possible logical grounds can you find personal offence. That's 1 to me, 0 to you.

3. Not once did I say I'm the only one who knows WWII. However I will say this for the first time ever. Overall you certainly don't know more than me. Actually, you don't know more than many who post. Perhaps there exists a feeling of insecurity. It would explain your regular repetitive postings.

4. You don't hold copyright to ideas. Especially when you don't flesh them out with extensive specific supporting details. Perhaps you have not yet found them in a book. Augment your book reading with a visit to Spain to see first hand the terrain.

5. Essentially you believe you have been plagiarised. Well my post does not constitute how plagiarism works, not in academic circles and most certainly not on an internet forum. As any good novelist/playwright will admit there are only 7 stories in the world. How many novels and plays have been written over the millennia in all the different languages and cultures, all apparently by plagiarists according to your interpretation.

6. Yes, I remember that AE thread very well. You took umbrage at things which were not directed at you, and when your error was pointed out, for the only time I can recall on the Matrix forums, you did not insist on having the last word (which you always do repeating yourself if necessary) and quietly left the forum without an apology or any kind of follow up post. Too embarrassed to be caught out. Oh, and the thread was not at all how you present it; no one in that thread took any of your ideas. A real man does not sulk away when they are at fault.

7. The post of mine you quote is not full of questions. Quite the opposite. But for the sake of argument, let's say it is full of questions. That would be just like your own posts. Hypocrisy at play here. That's now 2 to me, 0 to you.

8. Sum of us try to be concise, whilst still being thorough, in our communications. I for one am certainly not paid by the word, however as Charles Dickens was paid by the word I can't discount the possibility that you are similarly paid. It would certainly explain the verbosity of your repetitive posts. Yes, report writers are trained to be as concise as possible as it helps to convey information to the reader. Nothing worse than reading a report by some who is trying to emulate the style of Joyce. The objective of trying to be concise is not advanced by specifically quoting every post in this long thread. You might care to take this objective onboard. A very good exemplar of concise writing in this very thread is found in the poster who has simply said in several of his posts that they must be good pharmaceuticals. See, very concise and very clearly conveys to the reader that posters view on the subject.

9. Several posters have made comments not a million miles from your own comments. Why the lack of petulance at them? You certainly haven't accused them of being arrogant. The answer is undoubtedly found in the allusions found in this post. They do not reflect well upon you.

Alfred

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 154
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 11:00:52 AM   
TulliusDetritus


Posts: 5521
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From: The Zone™
Status: offline
To me, the only alternative WWII in the ETO is the one in which the decisive events happen in the very heart, not in the periphery.

I -and you- don't know how many more Soviet divisions needed to be destroyed or how many more cities had to be taken to knock the USSR out of the war. It's pure speculation so let's forget it. But imagine Hitler somehow succeeds *in the very heart*

He is the master of the huge Eurasian landmass (the Japanese might be "allowed" to swallow the oriental chunk up to let's say Irkutsk). Now the raw numbers. The Wehrmacht is a 150-200 divisions strong beast minimum. Not counting the possible (in this scenario) satellites, allies, puppets, proxies.

The British *decided aka political decision* (before the fall of France) this war (the real WWII) would be fought with circa 40 divisions... So what's going to happen? We know this was basically like the WWI plan or idea. But that war was not over by christmas 1914 therefore the plan needed to be revised. A *90* divisions British Army was raised then... simply put, the fighting French would not have accepted a ridiculously small BEF aka the islanders fighting to the last drop of blood of the continentals' soldiers.

Sooo... The British should be raising minimum a similar army with both France and the USSR out of the war. Problem is -you don't need to be Clausewitz to understand this- 90 vs 150-200 divisions is a crazy challenge *and please spare me the ludicrous on paper hordes of colonials coming to the rescue and other fantasies*

In this scenario (and the US not involved), the *periphery you're talking about* is going to follow sooner or later like a ripe fruit (even without a fight, who knows). Spain, Turkey, the whole Mediterranean basin, the Middle East *and* the real India.

In other words we have the classic Mackinder's ideas at work. The "World Island" naturally swallowing its satellites.

Now let's drag the US into this epic struggle. I assume -like the British in WWI- they'd need minimum a 90 divisions army too eh. And that's when the huge bar brawl starts. Basically a 1:1 ratio in divisions. Countless options, ideas from this point. Interior lines vs maritime powers free to concentrate forces wherever they want etc etc

Or alternatively... we know the guy with the funny moustache in fact admired and just wanted to emulate the imperial British. *IF* he doesn't touch India he might propose "leave me alone in my World Island and I will let you enjoy your maritime empire"...

And that's of course the UNCONFESSED wet dream of the panzers' fetishists, assorted reactionaries and closet post WWII *neo* nazis XDXDXD

In the end, my friends, Dr Morell failed to fix the most important problem here: herr Hitler never stopped sniffing glue -tons of it- and thus he lead his "one thousand years reich" to utter annihilation. Serves these clowns right.

< Message edited by TulliusDetritus -- 8/16/2020 11:06:46 AM >


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Post #: 155
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 11:02:55 AM   
rico21


Posts: 2990
Joined: 3/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21


quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.


Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!










The Luftwaffe can also send a message!




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Post #: 156
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 11:20:37 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1. Not once have I mentioned your name.

warspite1

You said in opening your post:

All I see in this thread is thought bubble after thought bubble thrown out. None based on any reality. All demonstrating extreme amateur understanding of military considerations, completely overlooking the political, economic and geographic constraints which good professional military planners incorporate into action.

If you did not mean me (and certain others) then why the words None and All? Surely you know words have meaning right? Surely in digital communication, where there is no mannerisms or the chance to quickly pick up on possible areas of mis-understanding, properly explaining oneself is pretty important. Are you just lazy or do you not feel that proper communication is for you?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

2. Have I missed a claim from you that your comments are supported by commercial wargame designers? I don't think so which brings up the interesting psychological question; why are you taking credit for someone else's statement otherwise on what possible logical grounds can you find personal offence.

warspite1

In posting as you did, there is no reference to who made that claim; but I repeat you used the words None and All and in so doing just dismissed everyone else that had posted. That is what you said.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

3. Not once did I say I'm the only one who knows WWII. However I will say this for the first time ever. Overall you certainly don't know more than me.

warspite1

This has been mentioned too many times now. Your posting style betrays something else.

Do I know more than you? Do you know more than me? I have no idea and I have no room for such playground questions. If you know more than me (and quite clearly on some things you do) then fine. I can learn from your posts on those subjects. Same as you can from me - not that you would ever admit that of course.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

4. You don't hold copyright to ideas. Especially when you don't flesh them out with extensive specific supporting details. Perhaps you have not yet found them in a book. Augment your book reading with a visit to Spain to see first hand the terrain.

warspite1

And here is a classic example of your tone. I don't own copyright to ideas? Where did that nonsense come from? You can repeat what I've said all you like - believe it or not I generally take comfort in your affirming what I've said because I know you do know what you are talking about most of the time. But in saying All and None - if you understood what your words actually mean in the way you relate to people - you were effectively saying "this is what I think and everything else written previously is wrong". You see throwing words like ALL and NONE around mean something.

Just so arrogant.... firstly the 'blitz through Spain and Turkey' is Curtis Lemay's idea. He therefore has to provide the details (if he wants to defend his view and bring others around). It's not for me to tell him what he thinks. I've been asking him repeatedly to give a timeline and some detail. Once he's done that, I can provide detail of my own based on whether I think what he's saying sounds feasible or not. But I am not sitting here guessing what he's going to come up with am I?? Secondly thank you for telling me I haven't visited Spain. Funny, I thought I had. Care to tell me where else I have/haven't been??

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

5. Essentially you believe you have been plagiarised.

warspite1

What a truly bizarre comment; one that betrays a total lack of understanding about what has just taken place. That statement is just wrong on every level.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

6. Yes, I remember that AE thread very well.

warspite1

Quite clearly you don't remember that thread at all.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

7. The post of mine you quote is not full of questions. Quite the opposite. But for the sake of argument, let's say it is full of questions. That would be just like your own posts. Hypocrisy at play here. That's now 2 to me, 0 to you.

warspite1

Firstly what's with the 1-0, 2-0 nonsense? How old are you? So at the end of this post if I say its 5-0 to me, triple stampsy's, no erases, do I win???? WTH is that all about?

Secondly, if you say there were no questions when you were (quite correctly) asking things like, Then what? and How long? (being just two of them) in trying to get detail on the Spanish operation then fine. I know what a question is and they were questions. If you say they weren't then we'll leave it there to avoid embarrassment.

I have no idea what non-point you are trying to make regarding me asking questions and hypocrisy - no clue whatsoever but I suspect it means something to you.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

8. Sum of us try to be concise, whilst still being thorough, in our communications.

warspite1

...Well aren't you the perfect communicator then? That was concise sarcasm. Is that comment better in terms of length?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

A very good exemplar of concise writing in this very thread is found in the poster who has simply said in several of his posts that they must be good pharmaceuticals. See, very concise and very clearly conveys to the reader that posters view on the subject.

warspite1

Yes and those comments, repeated, added so much to further the discussion didn't they?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

9. Several posters have made comments not a million miles from your own comments. Why the lack of petulance at them? You certainly haven't accused them of being arrogant.

warspite1

Do you think that may have something to do with the fact that in stating such they didn't self-importantly rubbish ALL previous comments as amateur, with None based in reality?

You see, I don't have copyright (stupid thing to suggest) - and there are people on here who's opinion I greatly respect. If they say the same thing as me - and you are right, there were one or two who did that on this thread (at least one acknowledged what I said), then its no problem, who cares? If you did it (which you did) then again, no problem, who cares? - because, as said, regardless of what I think of your communication problems, I do believe in general you know what you are talking about. All you had to do was explain yourself properly. Now, re-read what you wrote - which was directed to all and contained None and All - no exceptions, just your pronouncements on all previous commentary. But you won't because you can never accept you've done anything wrong.


< Message edited by warspite1 -- 8/17/2020 6:34:20 AM >


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 157
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 12:19:58 PM   
rico21


Posts: 2990
Joined: 3/11/2016
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21


quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21


quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: rico21

It lacks the German paratroopers who are able to capture Franco to explain him what is expected of him.
This is why we entrust the design of wargames to professionals and not to the militaries.


Ah yes, a very good point but ...

How would the paratroopers find him? There is no schloss in Spain therefore someone would have to start looking for a castillo. There are an awful lot of castillos in Spain, it wasn't called Castilla y Leon for nothing.

Plus you can only pull that stunt once. If they do it in 1940 with Franco they won't be able to do it in 1943 with Mussolini.

It is a maxim of show business to let the audience want more. No point in showing the highlights of the show in the first 20 minutes. This ain't the Three Penny Opera with Mack the Knife.

Alfred

Send Fallschirmjagers in any spanish post office!










The Luftwaffe can also send a message!




The Kriegsmarine too!




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Post #: 158
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 2:47:39 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

For example I mentioned at the outset about the potential limitations of the German anti-shipping units – not ability, but number – and what that limitation meant for the actual Med War. But apparently this is not considered important to debate – despite the fact there is factual evidence to show how effective the Germans were….. but how stretched to.


They make more of them.

quote:

Stalin proved to be remarkably short-sighted when it came to the build-up to Barbarossa and who knows, he may have continued to be so in this alternate 1941. But as a wise man once said, past performance is no guarantee of the future. As said, Turkey – and specifically the Straits – was raised by the Soviets during and post the NS Pact. This is a BIG issue for the USSR - very big, survival big and pact or no pact, Hitler and Stalin do not trust each other.

No, there is no guarantee when Stalin would wake up and smell the coffee. But just look at what the Straits meant, look at the geographical position of Turkey. Look at what the Germans were doing. If I had to lay money on it, then yes I believe that this would be the straw that broke the camel’s back.


Let's see, he allows Germany to move its Polish border over 400 km closer to Moscow in 1939. He allows Germany to focus almost its entire armed forces against France and knock the only other major power on the continent out. Both of those moves far exceed the threat to Russia that German possession of the straits does.

Nevertheless, whatever he chooses to do works for the Germans.

quote:

So, forget Barbarossa, forget what the Soviets are doing. The US has told Japan, get out of China or you will be out of oil in 18 months maximum. And you believe that – even based on everything we know about Japan in 1941 - you believe they are going to simply exit China?


German action against Spain will telegraph that Barbarossa is off and the Japs will better wait to invade French Indochina. That was what triggered the embargo.

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(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 159
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 3:07:46 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I don’t understand what Rommel is doing at this point, why he is in Tripoli? and having fallen back from where?? And I'm sorry but I don’t get the de Gaulle reference either, but I'll ignore them for now and try and get started on the blitz through Spain and Turkey scenario.


Rommel knows what's coming. So, he will want to lure the 8th Army into Libya so it will be trapped there. De Gaulle was the one who harangued them into invading Syria.

quote:

So you believe the ‘blitz’ through Spain happens in 1940. When? How do you see this as coming about?

The defeat of France, in the timescale achieved, just isn’t expected by anyone. Here the Germans are in mid-June and French forces are being overrun everywhere. Reynaud hopes to get agreement for the government and as much of the military as possible to get to French North Africa, where General Nogues is itching to continue the fight. This would be based around the fleet (pretty much intact), an air force (essentially just as numerous as it was on May 10th) and as many of the circa 500,000 troops still free from German capture as would be possible to get away – plus whatever units are in other overseas territories. But Petain and Weygand have other ideas.

Hitler can’t believe his luck. He desperately wants to come to an agreement – one that will give the French a degree of sovereignty and so give French overseas possessions a legitimate government to rally to – and stay out of the clutches of Britain - but at the same time a large part of Northern France will be occupied in order to give the Germans a base from which to take the war to the British.

An armistice is agreed that takes effect on the 25th June 1940.

So, first questions/thoughts.

1. Everything has happened very fast since May 10th, and even quicker since the start of June. So what happens now? And I hope we can be realistic in timescales here. Hitler won't (as per historical) get his head around what is happening to the French, much less plan out his next moves. So he doesn't give his mind to this until the armistice is signed. Agreed?

2. In deciding on this Mediterranean strategy, are you suggesting that Hitler immediately realises that Britain can’t be invaded?

3. Presumably the German army and air force need time for rest and refit, replenishment etc.

4. Hitler will also need his generals to come up with plans for this Mediterranean strategy. Hitler will need to see Franco as clearly (as in real life) his initial wish would be for Franco to join the Axis.

5. We know that Franco can’t/won’t agree to Hitler’s request. So when are the German army sufficiently recuperated to take up their next assignment? What are we talking about – late July / early August?

6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?

7. What is happening in Britain at this point? There are no preparations being made for Sea Lion (and that is a welcome saving for Germany because the requisitioning of so many barges (largely from the River Rhine) was to have an adverse impact on the German economy that won’t now happen.

8. But this leaves Britain to re-build largely un-molested. Getting wind of German troop movements to southwest France, it seems likely that two things will happen. A) Reinforcement of Gibraltar with aircraft and troops. B) As British units are brought back up to strength, a reserve can be brought together to assist the Spanish as soon as the Germans set foot in the peninsular. Spanish Morocco could be used as a base for operations. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence.

9. With a battle to be fought for Spain/Gibraltar, ill-advised side shows like Menace likely won’t happen in September.

10. So let’s say it’s July 1940. What do you envisage is happening in the Mediterranean east of Gibraltar?


As I said at the start, this is the plan from the beginning. Once Vichy is in place, overwhelming force will be made ready for Spain. They will have the rest of the Summer and Fall to complete the operation.

Spain is at peace - with a peace-time army. Once invaded they may be too far gone to even get their reserves called up.

Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?

And the narrow frontage is no worse than invading France through the Ardennes - bypassing the Maginot line.

In North Africa, the Italians know what is coming, so they fall back out of the trap that they were in for Compass.

What is the UK doing? They barely got their BEF back - without heavy equipment. They don't know Sealion is off.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 8/16/2020 3:35:59 PM >


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(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 160
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 3:14:50 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy.  Commercial war game designers are not professional military planners.


But they are superior to wargame players. I'm not debating professional military planners. Of course, if anybody here achieved General rank I'd be happy to hear from you.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 8/16/2020 3:33:52 PM >


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Post #: 161
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 4:58:48 PM   
rico21


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Professional military planners?
The same people who had not foreseen that the Germans would pass through the Ardennes in 1940 or those who had not understood that the bocage would hamper the tanks in Normandy in 1944?

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Post #: 162
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 5:38:40 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I don’t understand what Rommel is doing at this point, why he is in Tripoli? and having fallen back from where?? And I'm sorry but I don’t get the de Gaulle reference either, but I'll ignore them for now and try and get started on the blitz through Spain and Turkey scenario.


Rommel knows what's coming. So, he will want to lure the 8th Army into Libya so it will be trapped there. De Gaulle was the one who harangued them into invading Syria.

quote:

So you believe the ‘blitz’ through Spain happens in 1940. When? How do you see this as coming about?

The defeat of France, in the timescale achieved, just isn’t expected by anyone. Here the Germans are in mid-June and French forces are being overrun everywhere. Reynaud hopes to get agreement for the government and as much of the military as possible to get to French North Africa, where General Nogues is itching to continue the fight. This would be based around the fleet (pretty much intact), an air force (essentially just as numerous as it was on May 10th) and as many of the circa 500,000 troops still free from German capture as would be possible to get away – plus whatever units are in other overseas territories. But Petain and Weygand have other ideas.

Hitler can’t believe his luck. He desperately wants to come to an agreement – one that will give the French a degree of sovereignty and so give French overseas possessions a legitimate government to rally to – and stay out of the clutches of Britain - but at the same time a large part of Northern France will be occupied in order to give the Germans a base from which to take the war to the British.

An armistice is agreed that takes effect on the 25th June 1940.

So, first questions/thoughts.

1. Everything has happened very fast since May 10th, and even quicker since the start of June. So what happens now? And I hope we can be realistic in timescales here. Hitler won't (as per historical) get his head around what is happening to the French, much less plan out his next moves. So he doesn't give his mind to this until the armistice is signed. Agreed?

2. In deciding on this Mediterranean strategy, are you suggesting that Hitler immediately realises that Britain can’t be invaded?

3. Presumably the German army and air force need time for rest and refit, replenishment etc.

4. Hitler will also need his generals to come up with plans for this Mediterranean strategy. Hitler will need to see Franco as clearly (as in real life) his initial wish would be for Franco to join the Axis.

5. We know that Franco can’t/won’t agree to Hitler’s request. So when are the German army sufficiently recuperated to take up their next assignment? What are we talking about – late July / early August?

6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?

7. What is happening in Britain at this point? There are no preparations being made for Sea Lion (and that is a welcome saving for Germany because the requisitioning of so many barges (largely from the River Rhine) was to have an adverse impact on the German economy that won’t now happen.

8. But this leaves Britain to re-build largely un-molested. Getting wind of German troop movements to southwest France, it seems likely that two things will happen. A) Reinforcement of Gibraltar with aircraft and troops. B) As British units are brought back up to strength, a reserve can be brought together to assist the Spanish as soon as the Germans set foot in the peninsular. Spanish Morocco could be used as a base for operations. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence.

9. With a battle to be fought for Spain/Gibraltar, ill-advised side shows like Menace likely won’t happen in September.

10. So let’s say it’s July 1940. What do you envisage is happening in the Mediterranean east of Gibraltar?


As I said at the start, this is the plan from the beginning. Once Vichy is in place, overwhelming force will be made ready for Spain. They will have the rest of the Summer and Fall to complete the operation.

Spain is at peace - with a peace-time army. Once invaded they may be too far gone to even get their reserves called up.

Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?

And the narrow frontage is no worse than invading France through the Ardennes - bypassing the Maginot line.

In North Africa, the Italians know what is coming, so they fall back out of the trap that they were in for Compass.

What is the UK doing? They barely got their BEF back - without heavy equipment. They don't know Sealion is off.
warspite1

Okay can we step back please?

There is no 8th Army at this point.

I need to understand why you are talking about Rommel. You said it's 1940. We have literally just got to the armistice. What is Rommel doing in Libya. How is he luring the WDF back into into Libya when Graziani hasn't even moved into Egypt at this point?

Why are you talking about Syria at this point?

Can we please re-wind to Post 134. If Rommel is in Libya - deep into Libya (with what?) then I feel there are about a million steps that have been glossed over here?

How are the British aware Sea Lion is even being contemplated? There is no build up of barges, there (seemingly) is no Luftwaffe action in the Channel.

Sorry Curtis Lemay, but this is not a good start.



< Message edited by warspite1 -- 8/16/2020 8:24:41 PM >


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Post #: 163
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 6:50:44 PM   
RangerJoe


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How is the Luftwaffe supposed to get more suddenly trained aircrew and ground crew for this anti-shipping strike force? Where is the rubber coming from? The Soviet Union who got it from Malaya? Where are the airfields? Are there enough in that part of France? If not, don't you think that the Spanish would find out about the construction of new ones and act accordingly?

Is Rommel vacationing in Libya in 1940 and not seeing to his Panzer division that was in France?

How could Spain not detect the build up of supplies in Basque country in France? The movement of the forces into that very narrow corridor? A simple map reconnaissance can tell a person the general area where to place units for defence, then a more detailed look on the ground would find the exact locations to build the bunkers that would blend into the surrounding terrain. Find out from the locals where any caves are and utilize those as well.

Any bridges would then have explosives ready to be emplaced and used on the main roads to best effect as well as for the bridges. No panzers can easily move through big road craters in roads, Not to mention a sudden fall of big rocks when moving through any narrow passages and the engineers would have a hard time repairing bridges or building new ones while under fire. To move the enemy away, infantry would have to move across any river/stream which, if it rains in the mountains, can easily and quickly reach the dangerous flood stage. That is not to mention that if there are any dams that their water could be released on demand - carrying logs other debris with the water to injure/kill any enemy soldiers. Flash floods carrying debris with it are not fun.

In the meantime, the RAF and the RN are not sitting around. Even DDs coming in to bombard along the coast could be a problem. Those ships are fast and hard to hit. Add in some cruisers for even more damage. Some Commandos or their forerunners could come in quick and start doing damage to roads, railroads, and bridges in SW France hindering the movement of units,and supplies.

During this time, some of the looted gold was sold by Germany through Spain. I recall reading that it was at least 50 tons. How does Germany now sell that to purchase necessary materials in the world markets?

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Post #: 164
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 7:09:50 PM   
Bo Rearguard


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?



Through Admiral Canaris for one. Hitler's spymaster and the head of the Abwehr who did everything he could to frustrate Operation Felix. Conversations from this period between Franco and Admiral Canaris remain a mystery since none were recorded, but the Spanish government later expressed gratitude to the widow of Canaris at the conclusion of the Second World War by paying her a pension.

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)
Post #: 165
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 8:19:49 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

They make more of them.

warspite1

Okay, so in getting Hitler to change his mind in order to explore this Mediterranean strategy, you are also suggesting that Goering be allowed to completely change his view on the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine. Sorry but I'm not feeling this is a sensible what-if, but instead is starting to become fantasy. Are the British commanders allowed to completely act opposite to how they went about things historically too? Goering is NOT going to be persuaded to build more aircraft that make the Kriegsmarine look good, and even if he did, what happens about their torpedoes?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Let's see, he allows Germany to move its Polish border over 400 km closer to Moscow in 1939. He allows Germany to focus almost its entire armed forces against France and knock the only other major power on the continent out. Both of those moves far exceed the threat to Russia that German possession of the straits does.

Nevertheless, whatever he chooses to do works for the Germans.

warspite1

Nope. This is using hindsight. Stalin chose to do a deal because a) he got territory to use as a buffer with Germany (remember Germany and Poland had a non-aggression pact at one point) and b) his thinking was perfectly reasonable. There was no one on god's sweet earth that believed the French would be destroyed by the Germans in six weeks. Stalin's view, that the western powers would fight each other to exhaustion a la WWI, was perfectly reasonable.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

German action against Spain will telegraph that Barbarossa is off and the Japs will better wait to invade French Indochina. That was what triggered the embargo.

warspite1

But according to your timescale its July 1940. How does the Germans preparing to attack Spain telegraph to Japan that Barbarossa (that plans for aren't even started to be drawn up for until August!) is postponed?

Are you also saying that these incredibly well clued up Japanese knew that if they invade French Indo-China, that will bring an oil embargo? They can't have, because it didn't.


< Message edited by warspite1 -- 8/17/2020 6:50:39 AM >


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Post #: 166
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/16/2020 8:30:20 PM   
MrRoadrunner


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I think that the Brits and French should have invaded Poland before Hitler. Then what would the Germans do if they are tied up in Spain, Portugal and Gibraltar?

Oh,wait. Most games prohibit that?

Meep Meep!

RR

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Post #: 167
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 2:45:29 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Okay can we step back please?

There is no 8th Army at this point.

I need to understand why you are talking about Rommel. You said it's 1940. We have literally just got to the armistice. What is Rommel doing in Libya. How is he luring the WDF back into into Libya when Graziani hasn't even moved into Egypt at this point?

Why are you talking about Syria at this point?

Can we please re-wind to Post 134. If Rommel is in Libya - deep into Libya (with what?) then I feel there are about a million steps that have been glossed over here?


There are two threads to this discussion: Spain and Turkey. You've got to be able to keep them separate in your head somehow. The Rommel thing was related to the operation in Turkey. That's in 1941.

quote:

How are the British aware Sea Lion is even being contemplated? There is no build up of barges, there (seemingly) is no Luftwaffe action in the Channel.


How would they know it's not? There's a huge army staring across the channel from them. And, if they want to, some barges could be positioned - or faked, like with Patton - to trick them.


< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 8/17/2020 3:15:47 PM >


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Post #: 168
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 2:57:57 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Okay, so in getting Hitler to change his mind in order to explore this Mediterranean strategy, you are also suggesting that Goering be allowed to completely change his view on the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine. Sorry but I'm not feeling this is a sensible what-if, but instead is starting to become fantasy. Are the British commanders allowed to completely act opposite to how they went about things historically too? Goering is NOT going to be persuaded to build more aircraft that make the Kriegsmarine look good, and even if he did, what happens about their torpedoes?


Of course if circumstances change production decisions will change. It's absurd to think otherwise. And, since the BoB isn't going to take place, plenty of spare aircraft production. All they're going to build are stukas anyway. Perfectly useful for the army, too.

quote:

Nope. This is using hindsight. Stalin chose to do a deal because a) he got territory to use as a buffer with Germany (remember Germany and Poland had a non-aggression pact at one point) and b) his thinking was perfectly reasonable.


He had Poland as a buffer before. Much better. No question that he was worse off after Poland.

quote:

There was no one on god's sweet earth that believed the French would be destroyed by the Germans in six weeks. Stalin's view, that the western powers would fight each other to exhaustion a la WWI, was perfectly reasonable.


But allowing almost the entire Wehrmacht to be used? It can only be explained by Stalin not thinking he was on the menu. He still thought they were a team.

quote:

But according to your timescale its July 1940. How does the Germans preparing to attack Spain telegraph to Japan that Barbarossa (that plans for aren't even started to be drawn up for until August!) is postponed?

Are you also saying that these incredibly well clued up Japanese knew that if they invade French Indo-China, that will bring an oil embargo? They can't have, because it didn't.


Regardless, there is no way the Rising Sun offensive takes place with Russia unencumbered.

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 8/17/2020 3:18:28 PM >


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Post #: 169
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 3:00:13 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bo Rearguard


quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?



Through Admiral Canaris for one. Hitler's spymaster and the head of the Abwehr who did everything he could to frustrate Operation Felix. Conversations from this period between Franco and Admiral Canaris remain a mystery since none were recorded, but the Spanish government later expressed gratitude to the widow of Canaris at the conclusion of the Second World War by paying her a pension.


Would that be the same Canaris who alerted the Allies that the Germans were attacking through the Ardennes?

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Post #: 170
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 3:14:48 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

How is the Luftwaffe supposed to get more suddenly trained aircrew and ground crew for this anti-shipping strike force? Where is the rubber coming from? The Soviet Union who got it from Malaya? Where are the airfields? Are there enough in that part of France? If not, don't you think that the Spanish would find out about the construction of new ones and act accordingly?


Are you seriously saying that Germany will not be able to produce any more aircraft for the duration of the war? Think of the savings from not having a BoB. Germany was making artificial rubber via coal. There are airfields in France. Close enough to support the initial invasion. From that point, fields could be captured or built.

The Spanish would expect some German troops in the area. Impossible to discern their magnitude or intent. Remember the 1st Airborne was dropped on top of the II SS Panzer Corps later.

quote:

Any bridges would then have explosives ready to be emplaced and used on the main roads to best effect as well as for the bridges. No panzers can easily move through big road craters in roads, Not to mention a sudden fall of big rocks when moving through any narrow passages and the engineers would have a hard time repairing bridges or building new ones while under fire. To move the enemy away, infantry would have to move across any river/stream which, if it rains in the mountains, can easily and quickly reach the dangerous flood stage. That is not to mention that if there are any dams that their water could be released on demand - carrying logs other debris with the water to injure/kill any enemy soldiers. Flash floods carrying debris with it are not fun.


The terrain in the corridor looks like hills. Mountains are to the east of it. Regardless, this is standard warfare. Bridges are blown and repaired. Nevertheless, strategic surprise will lessen that.

Furthermore, Vichy was negotiated without intent to invade Spain. If that was the plan, a larger corridor could have been bargained for in exchange for terrain somewhere else.

Furthermore, SPI's War in Europe has a Spanish army of 9, not very powerful, divisions. Only one in the corridor area. As I've said, the professionals are on my side.

quote:

In the meantime, the RAF and the RN are not sitting around. Even DDs coming in to bombard along the coast could be a problem. Those ships are fast and hard to hit. Add in some cruisers for even more damage. Some Commandos or their forerunners could come in quick and start doing damage to roads, railroads, and bridges in SW France hindering the movement of units,and supplies.


A fantasy. They would not risk their fleet or their aircraft to save Spain with an invasion staring at them. And the area is going to be far too dense with troops to allow commandos.

quote:

During this time, some of the looted gold was sold by Germany through Spain. I recall reading that it was at least 50 tons. How does Germany now sell that to purchase necessary materials in the world markets?


Gold is fungible. The Swiss?

< Message edited by Curtis Lemay -- 8/17/2020 3:27:47 PM >


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Post #: 171
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 3:20:55 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

There are two treads to this discussion: Spain and Turkey. You've got to be able to keep them separate in your head somehow. The Rommel thing was related to the operation in Turkey. That's in 1941.

warspite1

But why would you possibly approach it from that angle? We are looking at a what-if that involves a German Mediterranean first strategy. In order to put forward a case one needs to work through what happens from the defeat of the French to the launch of Barbarossa 1942. How would this possibly work otherwise? An extreme example to prove a point; Suppose we both agreed that the German naval air took a total pasting over Gibraltar. This would impact the use of Malta, it would likely impact operations in the Eastern Mediterranean. But you seem to be wanting to say whatever happens in 1941 is totally separate to anything that happens in 1940. Well the Commonwealth forces in Egypt/Libya that are required to meet any advance from Turkey, will be affected by what happens in 1940. You can't separate, into hermetically sealed time capsules, Spain from Malta from Libya from Yugoslavia/Greece from Turkey and whatever else comes into play as a result.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

How would they know it's not? There's a huge army staring across the channel from them. And, if they want to, some barges could be positioned - or faked, like with Patton - to trick them.

warspite1

The deception that was FUSAG was an enormous undertaking using false radio comms and thousands upon thousands of dummy tanks, aircraft, trucks etc. Something that the resources available to the allies allowed them to undertake, even in 1944. Are you suggesting the Germans could just take 'some' old barges and what? deposit them in Boulogne and expect the British to think "Lumme! there's an invasion due!". You don't think perhaps the Germans would actually need to put a bit of effort into it? I am quite sure they were also sufficiently capable of doing a good deception job, but that is going to take resource and, perhaps more importantly, time. Besides which, do you not think that Dowding would be just a little perplexed by having no Luftwaffe interference over the Channel or the southeast of England?

And so, in addition to a strange lack of action or lack of anything really along the Channel coast, there are reports of a German "Army Group" and a large number of Luftwaffe units heading to Bordeaux and environs.....



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Post #: 172
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 3:37:33 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Of course if circumstances change production decisions will change. It's absurd to think otherwise. And, since the BoB isn't going to take place, plenty of spare aircraft production. All they're going to build are stukas anyway. Perfectly useful for the army, too.

warspite1

Within reason yes, because its not much of a 'what-if' if everyone has to act in accordance with their historical behaviour. That said, there has to be limitations or the whole thing becomes meaningless. "Right, let's see what happens if the Germans never make a mistake and, regardless of what they do, the allies are bound to recreate theirs".

In coming up with this we've made a massive alteration in Hitler's raison d'etre - but sorry, changing everyone's behaviour so that regardless of their limitations or deep-seated hatreds, or simple short comings in ability and judgement, they now act for the good of the 1,000 year Reich?? This needs to be tempered.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

He had Poland as a buffer before. Much better. No question that he was worse off after Poland.

warspite1

Hindsight. He could not guarantee he had Poland as a buffer. When he did - because the NS Pact told him German intentions he, not unreasonably expected the Germans and Western Allies to fight each other to exhaustion - or if there was a winner then that winner would be exhausted.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

But allowing almost the entire Wehrmacht to be used? It can only be explained by Stalin not thinking he was on the menu. He still thought they were a team.

warspite1

Hindsight. a) how could he TELL Hitler what he could and couldn't use against the west, and b) there was potentially almost as big a danger for him that the Western Allies destroyed Hitler.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Regardless, there is no way the Rising Sun offensive takes place with Russia unencumbered.

warspite1

So you are saying the Japanese back down and leave China with all that means in terms of loss of face? And despite what happens in Europe you are certain the US won't at any point think "Do you know what? I think we've got this wrong......"?


< Message edited by warspite1 -- 8/17/2020 3:39:10 PM >


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Post #: 173
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 4:55:58 PM   
RangerJoe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

How is the Luftwaffe supposed to get more suddenly trained aircrew and ground crew for this anti-shipping strike force? Where is the rubber coming from? The Soviet Union who got it from Malaya? Where are the airfields? Are there enough in that part of France? If not, don't you think that the Spanish would find out about the construction of new ones and act accordingly?


Are you seriously saying that Germany will not be able to produce any more aircraft for the duration of the war? Think of the savings from not having a BoB. Germany was making artificial rubber via coal. There are airfields in France. Close enough to support the initial invasion. From that point, fields could be captured or built.

The production was limited and difficult to expand due to costs and the lack of materials such as building steel. It was also more expensive than natural rubber. Where were those airfields located and what was their condition? Grass or concrete. Savings from the Battle of Britain? What would the RAF be doing, playing bridge?

The Spanish would expect some German troops in the area. Impossible to discern their magnitude or intent. Remember the 1st Airborne was dropped on top of the II SS Panzer Corps later.

But how many, where, and what type of units? That much armour would send up red flags. It is possible to determine magnitude or intent based on what the units are doing and what equipment they have. Obviously you have had no training in that regard. What does the operations Market and Garden have to do with this? Remember that the anti-Fascists were working with the French resistance.

quote:

Any bridges would then have explosives ready to be emplaced and used on the main roads to best effect as well as for the bridges. No panzers can easily move through big road craters in roads, Not to mention a sudden fall of big rocks when moving through any narrow passages and the engineers would have a hard time repairing bridges or building new ones while under fire. To move the enemy away, infantry would have to move across any river/stream which, if it rains in the mountains, can easily and quickly reach the dangerous flood stage. That is not to mention that if there are any dams that their water could be released on demand - carrying logs other debris with the water to injure/kill any enemy soldiers. Flash floods carrying debris with it are not fun.


The terrain in the corridor looks like hills. Mountains are to the east of it. Regardless, this is standard warfare. Bridges are blown and repaired. Nevertheless, strategic surprise will lessen that.

So it is standard warfare and there is no guarantee of strategic surprise. How easy is it to repair a bridge when the troops are being killed and wounded? I don't think that it would be very easy but first, troops have to reach the other side and secure it. all that takes time away and it is not longer a fast advance.

Furthermore, Vichy was negotiated without intent to invade Spain. If that was the plan, a larger corridor could have been bargained for in exchange for terrain somewhere else.

No corridor was bargained for, it was to the extent of the German advance and they had to rush to get that far. The Germans did not want any Vichy territory on the Atlantic coast.

Furthermore, SPI's War in Europe has a Spanish army of 9, not very powerful, divisions. Only one in the corridor area. As I've said, the professionals are on my side.

Who gives a rat's posterior about SPI's War in Europe? You don't need much power in that type of terrain, units can be relocated, the locals would be coming out after the Germans as well. Don't you think that the veteran guerillas would be helping Franco, even if they fought against him?

quote:

In the meantime, the RAF and the RN are not sitting around. Even DDs coming in to bombard along the coast could be a problem. Those ships are fast and hard to hit. Add in some cruisers for even more damage. Some Commandos or their forerunners could come in quick and start doing damage to roads, railroads, and bridges in SW France hindering the movement of units,and supplies.


A fantasy. They would not risk their fleet or their aircraft to save Spain with an invasion staring at them. And the area is going to be far too dense with troops to allow commandos.

Your fantasy to think that the British and Commonwealth would not since they would see the target would be The Rock. It would not be that great a risk. It was more of a risk to help the Greeks which they did later at the expense of the North Afrikan campaign and more of a risk to help Norway.

quote:

During this time, some of the looted gold was sold by Germany through Spain. I recall reading that it was at least 50 tons. How does Germany now sell that to purchase necessary materials in the world markets?


Gold is fungible. The Swiss?

They were using the Swiss as well but the Swiss would/could only do so much. Spain was where a lot of resources came in from South America enroute to Germany.


Even hills have defensive benefits, it is hard to see around them or behind them, attacking uphill against a determined enemy is difficult. Panzers? Any anti-armour fire would be directed more at the top than the front. There is a lot of armour up there, especially on half tracks. The defender gets to see where the enemy is coming from and gets the pleasure of calling artillery and mortar fire on the enemy. And who does the enemy shoot at?

A local shepherd on a hill firing on a German column, an army sniper firing on a German column, or is it an infantry unit up there? Stop the column, dismount infantry, and find out. That takes time. The enemy might be gone by then, artillery/mortar fire might start raining down on the column, men are killed and wounded while vehicles are being destroyed. The burning vehicles are in the way, some of them have ammunition and/or explosives, would you try to move them without an armoured vehicle or an armoured bulldozer? How about your armoured vehicle that is moving a burning vehicle gets enveloped wen the fuel cell explodes? Or the extra fuel that it is carrying explodes?

A steeper slope or a cliff might have people with gasoline bombs to drop on the enemy. A ravine might have bundles of brush with pitch and oil ready to be lit to be dropped in front of, in the middle of, and behind a German column. Do you want to be in a halftrack, a SiG, or an open topped armoured car with one of those landing on top of it? Also, be careful of any cow pies on the road, they might hide a land mine.

Your Germany invasion would also be attacking in the fall when it tends to rain more and there is less daylight. Attacking at night is more difficult. The locals would know the terrain and have knives. Even behind the lines in the rear areas you would not be safe unless you kill ALL of the locals. Culverts could be easily blown making a road impassible. You would have a lot of work crews repairing roads. It is easy to drive fast during road construction when there are big holes running across the road, is it not? The work crews would still be working when they are shot and killed or wounded, correct?

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Post #: 174
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 7:45:07 PM   
RangerJoe


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This is reference to Turkey. You could hide an army in these caves:

Derinkuyu: The Tumultuous History of Turkey’s Underground City

quote:

Derinkuyu is the deepest excavated underground city in Cappadocia in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. A beautiful natural wonder with impressive fairy chimneys and eroded caverns, Cappadocia is an amazing geological spectacle. It is also riddled with extensive subterranean dwellings and secret tunnel passages that various people utilized for shelter across the centuries. There are hundreds of these homes in the region, and Derinkuyu is the most famous. At a depth of more than 250 feet with a capacity of up to 20,000 people, this multi-leveled city contained everything an entire population would need to survive a history riddled with invasions.


https://www.historicmysteries.com/derinkuyu-underground-city-cappadocia/

That is only one city, there are more of them.

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Post #: 175
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 8:06:20 PM   
Orm


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So if Germany had as a primary war goal to take Gibraltar they couldn't have taken that in consideration on how to deal with Spain, and the French peace talks?

Germany couldn't have put an ultimatum saying, for example, we will pass a certain number of troops through Vichy France to enter Spain that way. And we will send supply for them through that route as long as need be? Or to put it to Spain that they are either allowing the German forces to pass on through to Gibraltar or facing the consequences of non-compliance. Either way we will march through Spain to take Gibraltar. Germany would be pleased if Spain would join in and take back what is theirs. But if not...

AH, and thus Germany, didn't have that goal at that time so didn't plan for it.

AH, and Germany, had not really planned on how to end the war with the CW when their stunning success in France. I think AH was a bit like Napoleon in Moscow... just waiting for it to happen without having to make any further effort.

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Post #: 176
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 11:49:01 PM   
warspite1


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Nevertheless, strategic surprise will lessen that

warspite1

I think it absurd to believe that a German ‘Army Group’ and many squadrons of Luftwaffe fighters and bombers moving into southwest France, won’t be noticed.

Their reason for being there would be equally hard to disguise given that Germany has just demanded access for its troops through Spain to grab Gibraltar, and Spain has had to refuse….

Name me an attack in Europe in WW2 that was a total surprise? There will be plenty of Germans sick to the stomach at invading a fellow Fascist state. There is simply no question of surprise in any way shape or form.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

...Spanish army of 9, not very powerful, divisions

warspite1

I believe it was more than that - although these will not all be mobilised at the outset of any fighting. That said, I have no idea where the idea that Spain’s army would provide the most significant opposition yet, comes from. Yes, the Spanish army will contain many veterans of the civil war and will be experienced in combat (never to be under-estimated), but the army is also:

- relatively small (circa 250,000 men) although increasing. A lot will depend on long the Germans can be delayed in their initial attack, and thus how many men can be mobilised and the cadre’s filled out.
- almost entirely an infantry force
- what tanks and vehicles there are have been kept working by cannibalisation of tanks and vehicles beyond repair
- besides oil is a major problem – even if they had more tanks and vehicles (the British will seek to assist in this regard of course).
- the air force suffers from the same problems, and spare parts for the hotch-potch of largely German and Italian machines are not going to be in rich supply….

The terrain does favour the defenders and it can be expected that such a stab in the back by Germany will be greeted with all the murderous vigour that the French were on the receiving end of 130-odd years before. For a people that were constantly living in poverty, with starvation a very real threat and trying to re-build after the horrors of civil war, I don’t think the Germans are in for an easy ride. The British will be stirring the pot and providing any and all assistance they can.

The weather will also be a factor (1940-41 another bad winter) – as any attack is unlikely to have got started before late September.

But the ultimate defeat of Spain is not in doubt, what I don’t have any real feel for is how long it will take the Germans to secure the country such that they can set about Gibraltar (which after all is the only reason Hitler has embarked on this ridiculous affair).

The folly of what the Germans have done will manifest itself once the fighting eventually finishes (and indeed is exactly the reason real life Hitler didn’t invade Spain). But for the moment, Germany has to get the job done, how are they going to do that and what can the British help with?



Can you confirm:

- what are the Italian 10th Army doing at this stage? Sitting tight in Cyrenaica?
- what are the Germans doing in Northern France?
- a sensible, realistic timescale for the German attack on Spain to start, allowing for Hitler to be persuaded to leave the USSR alone initially, to formulate plans against the British once France is defeated, negotiating with Franco over getting his assistance, negotiations between Mussolini and Franco, after Hitler fails, and then the orders to go.

< Message edited by warspite1 -- 8/17/2020 11:58:47 PM >


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Post #: 177
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/17/2020 11:57:13 PM   
RangerJoe


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Not to mention that Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Finland, and even Italy will be wondering if they are next. Turkey would also increase its military. Sweden might also get concerned.

Portugal would probably, unofficially, eliminate any German spies as well as they can.

Then the Americas . . .

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Post #: 178
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/18/2020 2:13:43 PM   
Curtis Lemay


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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

But why would you possibly approach it from that angle? We are looking at a what-if that involves a German Mediterranean first strategy. In order to put forward a case one needs to work through what happens from the defeat of the French to the launch of Barbarossa 1942. How would this possibly work otherwise? An extreme example to prove a point; Suppose we both agreed that the German naval air took a total pasting over Gibraltar. This would impact the use of Malta, it would likely impact operations in the Eastern Mediterranean. But you seem to be wanting to say whatever happens in 1941 is totally separate to anything that happens in 1940. Well the Commonwealth forces in Egypt/Libya that are required to meet any advance from Turkey, will be affected by what happens in 1940. You can't separate, into hermetically sealed time capsules, Spain from Malta from Libya from Yugoslavia/Greece from Turkey and whatever else comes into play as a result.


Just keep 1941 stuff separate from 1940 stuff in your head. If I'm talking about Rommel in North Africa, it's 1941. Don't make that same mistake again.

quote:

The deception that was FUSAG was an enormous undertaking using false radio comms and thousands upon thousands of dummy tanks, aircraft, trucks etc. Something that the resources available to the allies allowed them to undertake, even in 1944. Are you suggesting the Germans could just take 'some' old barges and what? deposit them in Boulogne and expect the British to think "Lumme! there's an invasion due!". You don't think perhaps the Germans would actually need to put a bit of effort into it? I am quite sure they were also sufficiently capable of doing a good deception job, but that is going to take resource and, perhaps more importantly, time. Besides which, do you not think that Dowding would be just a little perplexed by having no Luftwaffe interference over the Channel or the southeast of England?

And so, in addition to a strange lack of action or lack of anything really along the Channel coast, there are reports of a German "Army Group" and a large number of Luftwaffe units heading to Bordeaux and environs.....


The Germans will have an enormous force staring across the channel at them - even with the Spanish operation. No deception will be necessary. The barges could be real - everything in France if necessary. And it would be months before the British could be sure that it was off. Air activity could be simulated over the channel - just no BoB. Remember, the BoB wasn't even launched till September. Spain will probably be long gone by then.

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Post #: 179
RE: The question to ask about The Italians - 8/18/2020 2:22:41 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Within reason yes, because its not much of a 'what-if' if everyone has to act in accordance with their historical behaviour. That said, there has to be limitations or the whole thing becomes meaningless. "Right, let's see what happens if the Germans never make a mistake and, regardless of what they do, the allies are bound to recreate theirs".

In coming up with this we've made a massive alteration in Hitler's raison d'etre - but sorry, changing everyone's behaviour so that regardless of their limitations or deep-seated hatreds, or simple short comings in ability and judgement, they now act for the good of the 1,000 year Reich?? This needs to be tempered.


Let's go back to your original issue: "Goering is NOT going to be persuaded to build more aircraft that make the Kriegsmarine look good"

That doesn't make the Kriegsmarine look good. It makes the Luftwaffe look good! Why would Goering object to that?

quote:

Hindsight. He could not guarantee he had Poland as a buffer. When he did - because the NS Pact told him German intentions he, not unreasonably expected the Germans and Western Allies to fight each other to exhaustion - or if there was a winner then that winner would be exhausted.


No. It's not hindsight. Anyone could see that this gets the Germans closer to Moscow. His option was to not join the NS Pact. Join the Allies.

quote:

warspite1

Hindsight. a) how could he TELL Hitler what he could and couldn't use against the west, and b) there was potentially almost as big a danger for him that the Western Allies destroyed Hitler.


No. I don't think it is hindsight. I think that's really how he was thinking. He was stunned when the Germans invaded - actually went into shock. He really thought they were a team. It was going to be the two totalitarians taking on those decadent Western democracies.

quote:

So you are saying the Japanese back down and leave China with all that means in terms of loss of face? And despite what happens in Europe you are certain the US won't at any point think "Do you know what? I think we've got this wrong......"?


If they have to, they go without oil. But, I'll just mention that oil, like gold, if fungible too. Are you saying that the embargo was equivalent to a declaration of war?! The Japanese had no choice but to attack us?

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Post #: 180
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