Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

I think it absurd to believe that a German ‘Army Group’ and many squadrons of Luftwaffe fighters and bombers moving into southwest France, won’t be noticed.

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Their reason for being there would be equally hard to disguise given that Germany has just demanded access for its troops through Spain to grab Gibraltar, and Spain has had to refuse….

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Name me an attack in Europe in WW2 that was a total surprise?

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I believe it was more than that - although these will not all be mobilised at the outset of any fighting. That said, I have no idea where the idea that Spain’s army would provide the most significant opposition yet, comes from. Yes, the Spanish army will contain many veterans of the civil war and will be experienced in combat (never to be under-estimated), but the army is also:

- relatively small (circa 250,000 men) although increasing. A lot will depend on long the Germans can be delayed in their initial attack, and thus how many men can be mobilised and the cadre’s filled out.
- almost entirely an infantry force
- what tanks and vehicles there are have been kept working by cannibalisation of tanks and vehicles beyond repair
- besides oil is a major problem – even if they had more tanks and vehicles (the British will seek to assist in this regard of course).
- the air force suffers from the same problems, and spare parts for the hotch-potch of largely German and Italian machines are not going to be in rich supply….

The terrain does favour the defenders and it can be expected that such a stab in the back by Germany will be greeted with all the murderous vigour that the French were on the receiving end of 130-odd years before. For a people that were constantly living in poverty, with starvation a very real threat and trying to re-build after the horrors of civil war, I don’t think the Germans are in for an easy ride. The British will be stirring the pot and providing any and all assistance they can.

The weather will also be a factor (1940-41 another bad winter) – as any attack is unlikely to have got started before late September.

But the ultimate defeat of Spain is not in doubt, what I don’t have any real feel for is how long it will take the Germans to secure the country such that they can set about Gibraltar (which after all is the only reason Hitler has embarked on this ridiculous affair).

The folly of what the Germans have done will manifest itself once the fighting eventually finishes (and indeed is exactly the reason real life Hitler didn’t invade Spain). But for the moment, Germany has to get the job done, how are they going to do that and what can the British help with?



Can you confirm:

- what are the Italian 10th Army doing at this stage? Sitting tight in Cyrenaica?

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- what are the Germans doing in Northern France?

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- a sensible, realistic timescale for the German attack on Spain to start,

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allowing for Hitler to be persuaded to leave the USSR alone initially, to formulate plans against the British once France is defeated, negotiating with Franco over getting his assistance, negotiations between Mussolini and Franco, after Hitler fails, and then the orders to go.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

How is the Luftwaffe supposed to get more suddenly trained aircrew and ground crew for this anti-shipping strike force? Where is the rubber coming from? The Soviet Union who got it from Malaya? Where are the airfields? Are there enough in that part of France? If not, don't you think that the Spanish would find out about the construction of new ones and act accordingly?

Are you seriously saying that Germany will not be able to produce any more aircraft for the duration of the war? Think of the savings from not having a BoB. Germany was making artificial rubber via coal. There are airfields in France. Close enough to support the initial invasion. From that point, fields could be captured or built.

The production was limited and difficult to expand due to costs and the lack of materials such as building steel. It was also more expensive than natural rubber. Where were those airfields located and what was their condition? Grass or concrete. Savings from the Battle of Britain? What would the RAF be doing, playing bridge?

The Spanish would expect some German troops in the area. Impossible to discern their magnitude or intent. Remember the 1st Airborne was dropped on top of the II SS Panzer Corps later.

But how many, where, and what type of units? That much armour would send up red flags. It is possible to determine magnitude or intent based on what the units are doing and what equipment they have. Obviously you have had no training in that regard. What does the operations Market and Garden have to do with this? Remember that the anti-Fascists were working with the French resistance.

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Any bridges would then have explosives ready to be emplaced and used on the main roads to best effect as well as for the bridges. No panzers can easily move through big road craters in roads, Not to mention a sudden fall of big rocks when moving through any narrow passages and the engineers would have a hard time repairing bridges or building new ones while under fire. To move the enemy away, infantry would have to move across any river/stream which, if it rains in the mountains, can easily and quickly reach the dangerous flood stage. That is not to mention that if there are any dams that their water could be released on demand - carrying logs other debris with the water to injure/kill any enemy soldiers. Flash floods carrying debris with it are not fun.

The terrain in the corridor looks like hills. Mountains are to the east of it. Regardless, this is standard warfare. Bridges are blown and repaired. Nevertheless, strategic surprise will lessen that.

So it is standard warfare and there is no guarantee of strategic surprise. How easy is it to repair a bridge when the troops are being killed and wounded? I don't think that it would be very easy but first, troops have to reach the other side and secure it. all that takes time away and it is not longer a fast advance.

Furthermore, Vichy was negotiated without intent to invade Spain. If that was the plan, a larger corridor could have been bargained for in exchange for terrain somewhere else.

No corridor was bargained for, it was to the extent of the German advance and they had to rush to get that far. The Germans did not want any Vichy territory on the Atlantic coast.

Furthermore, SPI's War in Europe has a Spanish army of 9, not very powerful, divisions. Only one in the corridor area. As I've said, the professionals are on my side.

Who gives a rat's posterior about SPI's War in Europe? You don't need much power in that type of terrain, units can be relocated, the locals would be coming out after the Germans as well. Don't you think that the veteran guerillas would be helping Franco, even if they fought against him?

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In the meantime, the RAF and the RN are not sitting around. Even DDs coming in to bombard along the coast could be a problem. Those ships are fast and hard to hit. Add in some cruisers for even more damage. Some Commandos or their forerunners could come in quick and start doing damage to roads, railroads, and bridges in SW France hindering the movement of units,and supplies.

A fantasy. They would not risk their fleet or their aircraft to save Spain with an invasion staring at them. And the area is going to be far too dense with troops to allow commandos.

Your fantasy to think that the British and Commonwealth would not since they would see the target would be The Rock. It would not be that great a risk. It was more of a risk to help the Greeks which they did later at the expense of the North Afrikan campaign and more of a risk to help Norway.

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During this time, some of the looted gold was sold by Germany through Spain. I recall reading that it was at least 50 tons. How does Germany now sell that to purchase necessary materials in the world markets?

Gold is fungible. The Swiss?

They were using the Swiss as well but the Swiss would/could only do so much. Spain was where a lot of resources came in from South America enroute to Germany.

Even hills have defensive benefits, it is hard to see around them or behind them, attacking uphill against a determined enemy is difficult. Panzers? Any anti-armour fire would be directed more at the top than the front. There is a lot of armour up there, especially on half tracks. The defender gets to see where the enemy is coming from and gets the pleasure of calling artillery and mortar fire on the enemy. And who does the enemy shoot at?

A local shepherd on a hill firing on a German column, an army sniper firing on a German column, or is it an infantry unit up there? Stop the column, dismount infantry, and find out. That takes time. The enemy might be gone by then, artillery/mortar fire might start raining down on the column, men are killed and wounded while vehicles are being destroyed. The burning vehicles are in the way, some of them have ammunition and/or explosives, would you try to move them without an armoured vehicle or an armoured bulldozer? How about your armoured vehicle that is moving a burning vehicle gets enveloped wen the fuel cell explodes? Or the extra fuel that it is carrying explodes?

A steeper slope or a cliff might have people with gasoline bombs to drop on the enemy. A ravine might have bundles of brush with pitch and oil ready to be lit to be dropped in front of, in the middle of, and behind a German column. Do you want to be in a halftrack, a SiG, or an open topped armoured car with one of those landing on top of it? Also, be careful of any cow pies on the road, they might hide a land mine.

Your Germany invasion would also be attacking in the fall when it tends to rain more and there is less daylight. Attacking at night is more difficult. The locals would know the terrain and have knives. Even behind the lines in the rear areas you would not be safe unless you kill ALL of the locals. Culverts could be easily blown making a road impassible. You would have a lot of work crews repairing roads. It is easy to drive fast during road construction when there are big holes running across the road, is it not? The work crews would still be working when they are shot and killed or wounded, correct?

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

But why would you possibly approach it from that angle? We are looking at a what-if that involves a German Mediterranean first strategy. In order to put forward a case one needs to work through what happens from the defeat of the French to the launch of Barbarossa 1942. How would this possibly work otherwise? An extreme example to prove a point; Suppose we both agreed that the German naval air took a total pasting over Gibraltar. This would impact the use of Malta, it would likely impact operations in the Eastern Mediterranean. But you seem to be wanting to say whatever happens in 1941 is totally separate to anything that happens in 1940. Well the Commonwealth forces in Egypt/Libya that are required to meet any advance from Turkey, will be affected by what happens in 1940. You can't separate, into hermetically sealed time capsules, Spain from Malta from Libya from Yugoslavia/Greece from Turkey and whatever else comes into play as a result.

Just keep 1941 stuff separate from 1940 stuff in your head. If I'm talking about Rommel in North Africa, it's 1941. Don't make that same mistake again.

Don't make the mistake of not putting in the date. That way you can keep the dreams straight.

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The deception that was FUSAG was an enormous undertaking using false radio comms and thousands upon thousands of dummy tanks, aircraft, trucks etc. Something that the resources available to the allies allowed them to undertake, even in 1944. Are you suggesting the Germans could just take 'some' old barges and what? deposit them in Boulogne and expect the British to think "Lumme! there's an invasion due!". You don't think perhaps the Germans would actually need to put a bit of effort into it? I am quite sure they were also sufficiently capable of doing a good deception job, but that is going to take resource and, perhaps more importantly, time. Besides which, do you not think that Dowding would be just a little perplexed by having no Luftwaffe interference over the Channel or the southeast of England?

And so, in addition to a strange lack of action or lack of anything really along the Channel coast, there are reports of a German "Army Group" and a large number of Luftwaffe units heading to Bordeaux and environs.....

The Germans will have an enormous force staring across the channel at them - even with the Spanish operation. No deception will be necessary. The barges could be real - everything in France if necessary. And it would be months before the British could be sure that it was off. Air activity could be simulated over the channel - just no BoB. Remember, the BoB wasn't even launched till September. Spain will probably be long gone by then.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Just keep 1941 stuff separate from 1940 stuff in your head. If I'm talking about Rommel in North Africa, it's 1941. Don't make that same mistake again.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Remember, the BoB wasn't even launched till September. Spain will probably be long gone by then.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

That doesn't make the Kriegsmarine look good. It makes the Luftwaffe look good! Why would Goering object to that?

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No. It's not hindsight. Anyone could see that this gets the Germans closer to Moscow.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

He really thought they were a team. It was going to be the two totalitarians taking on those decadent Western democracies.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

If they have to, they go without oil…….. Are you saying that the embargo was equivalent to a declaration of war?! The Japanese had no choice but to attack us?

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Falling back to Tripoli.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

What!?! No such ultimatum would take place. They would, of course, try to persuade the Spanish, but that's it.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Denmark. Norway. Yugoslavia. Greece. The Ardennes. Soviet Union. Name any attack in 1941 that was tipped off.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

About July, I would think.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

After 6 weeks of maneuvering, the panzers would have to refit. That takes awhile. So you skip that and have broken panzers littering the roadways?

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

After 6 weeks of maneuvering, the panzers would have to refit. That takes awhile. So you skip that and have broken panzers littering the roadways?

warspite1

Apparently not, these are super panzers, driven by Robert Shaw clones. As Gordon Gekho once said, Rest and Refit is for wimps... or was that lunch?

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Alternatively of course you could take the obvious, sensible, and straightforward approach and deal with the scenario chronologically….. but why would anyone take that approach.

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September…………

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.....following hard on the heals of BoB starting in September (who knew right?) we now have this. Curtis Lemay you do know who Goering was right?

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Yes it does…. But you continue to ignore why Stalin would think that is acceptable given that the Germans are going into WWI revisited and about to lose millions of men.

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Well the evidence of this ‘team’ taking on the Western Democracies isn’t really there is it? So Germany take on Britain and France and all the minors that look to them and the Soviets take on…. The Finns, half of Poland (but only after the Germans have done the hard work), the Baltics and some Romanian territory. Great team. Perfect division of labour….

....or maybe he didn't for one second consider them as a team and he was getting Hitler to do all the dirty work so he would pick up the pieces...

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No, not at all. Look at the Japanese in WWII, looked at the way they went about just about everything they did. Face was everything. Let me be clear. You think they will not quit China, and they will not invade the NEI. They will simply ground down their reserves of oil until they work themselves back into the stoneage? Okay. So the upshot is, basically everyone acts like total numpty's to make your plan work. Got it.....

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....and speaking of numpty's right on cue.... only this time its the numpty Mussolini who, like Hitler, like Goering, like Stalin, like Hirohito, is not acting as per real life in order to make the German plan work.

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Sure. So in real life he tried to persuade, he got Mussolini to talk to him southern European to southern European and you concede this would happen here, but you don’t consider the possibility that Hitler would actually try and avoid war? Hitler is just gagging for more losses to his finite resourses.

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Erm…… is it me or are these answers getting sillier? Just take the first two - you really should read a book or two. How many tips offs, from how many sources are needed, in order to count as a tip off in your view?

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Okay, so I tried to be reasonable. But you won’t even consider meeting half way. Sure, the Germans don’t need R+R after France. July it is. What do you reckon? Gibraltar wrapped up just after lunch?

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The Battle of Britain started on 10 July 1940, how does that make it September?

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If you make the airfields in Northern France, how will you make the airfields in Southwestern France?

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If you move the Rhine barges, how does that impact war production? Oh wait, you just willed the materials to be moved where they were needed.

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How can you simulate air activity with no air force? With kites and balloons? 99 Air Balloons maybe? Release 99 air balloons, let them float across the English Channel and expect the RAF to respond?

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The Battle of Britain started on 10 July 1940, how does that make it September?

August 13th was the start of AS operations over England.
Both the British and the Germans state that the battle started in July. You tell them that they are wrong. Do so personally.

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If you make the airfields in Northern France, how will you make the airfields in Southwestern France?

France has airfields. Single engine aircraft just need a grass field. Bombers have the range to not need close airfields.

The Bf-109 has a small space between the wheels, any bump could cause a crash. So much for the airplane and possibly the pilot. Many were lost that way. If the field gets wet, then you have mud and/or water puddles, also fun for air operations. The farther than bombers fly , the lighter the load, the more wear and tear on the air frames, the more tiring for the crew.

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If you move the Rhine barges, how does that impact war production? Oh wait, you just willed the materials to be moved where they were needed.

French barges. Didn't the Germans actually do this historically? But now it's impossible!!

They took many barges from Germany. Many were damaged or sunk.

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How can you simulate air activity with no air force? With kites and balloons? 99 Air Balloons maybe? Release 99 air balloons, let them float across the English Channel and expect the RAF to respond?

Right. The entire Luftwaffe will be needed against the puny Spaniards.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Alternatively of course you could take the obvious, sensible, and straightforward approach and deal with the scenario chronologically….. but why would anyone take that approach.

I am dealing with it chronologically. You just need to pay attention.

You are not dealing with it chronologically, otherwise you would state the dates. You are dealing with it pharmaceuticly.

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September…………

Alright, AS operations began August 13th. I misremembered a little.

You misremembered a lot, it started in July according to both the British and the Germans. Your brain fried like an egg?

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.....following hard on the heals of BoB starting in September (who knew right?) we now have this. Curtis Lemay you do know who Goering was right?

Head of the Luftwaffe. Now explain why more planes and victories by planes are against his interests. I'm really stumped on this one.

He was also an important Nazi as well. He could have succeeded Hitler.

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Yes it does…. But you continue to ignore why Stalin would think that is acceptable given that the Germans are going into WWI revisited and about to lose millions of men.

Or that he thought they were a team.

So Stalin was deluded - for a time.

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Well the evidence of this ‘team’ taking on the Western Democracies isn’t really there is it? So Germany take on Britain and France and all the minors that look to them and the Soviets take on…. The Finns, half of Poland (but only after the Germans have done the hard work), the Baltics and some Romanian territory. Great team. Perfect division of labour….

....or maybe he didn't for one second consider them as a team and he was getting Hitler to do all the dirty work so he would pick up the pieces...

I remind you of his post-war quote about what they would have done together. And his shock at being betrayed.

Again, he was deluded.

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No, not at all. Look at the Japanese in WWII, looked at the way they went about just about everything they did. Face was everything. Let me be clear. You think they will not quit China, and they will not invade the NEI. They will simply ground down their reserves of oil until they work themselves back into the stoneage? Okay. So the upshot is, basically everyone acts like total numpty's to make your plan work. Got it.....

What does the US do with its oil? Eventually, the oil tanks are going to be filled. And they are still in a depression economy. They are going to try to find new buyers for that oil, and that is going to supplant some other producer's oil output. That will then go looking for buyers. Eventually, the Japanese are going to look like white knights coming to everyone's rescue to buy their oil. That's why embargos eventually fail.



Us industry was ramping up production. Cash and carry before Lend Lease. The US was selling weapons before Hitler invaded Poland. There were other buyers for that oil.

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....and speaking of numpty's right on cue.... only this time its the numpty Mussolini who, like Hitler, like Goering, like Stalin, like Hirohito, is not acting as per real life in order to make the German plan work.

Mussolini will be privy to the Spain and Turkey operations.

Then Spain and Turkey would have found out the starting time for the festivities.

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Sure. So in real life he tried to persuade, he got Mussolini to talk to him southern European to southern European and you concede this would happen here, but you don’t consider the possibility that Hitler would actually try and avoid war? Hitler is just gagging for more losses to his finite resourses.

Strategic surprise trumps that.

It does not. Strategic surprise does not give more resources. It just make what you have more effective for a short period of time and it is never as long as the initiator plans on.

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Erm…… is it me or are these answers getting sillier? Just take the first two - you really should read a book or two. How many tips offs, from how many sources are needed, in order to count as a tip off in your view?

I count a tip off as information good enough to actually be actionable by the target. It doesn't count as a tip off if it isn't believed. Seeing a tank on a photo isn't the same as the intel chief walking into Monty's HQ and telling him that the drop into Arnhem must be called off because the II SS Panzer Corps is sitting in it. If you see a tank in a photo all you saw was a tank in a photo.

The officer who suggesting changing the operation was sent on leave because they believed that his nerves were shot. Also unbelieved was the Dutch underground who informed the Allies of the SS Panzer divisions. The plan was also flawed as far as the ground offensive went. It was a case of victory disease at the top level.Also to be considered was the failure to stop the evacuation of German forces from the Schelde estuary.

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Okay, so I tried to be reasonable. But you won’t even consider meeting half way. Sure, the Germans don’t need R+R after France. July it is. What do you reckon? Gibraltar wrapped up just after lunch?

Continuous offensive in 1941 in Russia from June to November. There was a short stop after the opening victories, but that was due to victory disease, not actual need.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I am dealing with it chronologically. You just need to pay attention.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Alright, AS operations began August 13th. I misremembered a little.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Head of the Luftwaffe. Now explain why more planes and victories by planes are against his interests. I'm really stumped on this one.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Or that he thought they were a team.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

What does the US do with its oil? Eventually, the oil tanks are going to be filled. And they are still in a depression economy. They are going to try to find new buyers for that oil, and that is going to supplant some other producer's oil output. That will then go looking for buyers. Eventually, the Japanese are going to look like white knights coming to everyone's rescue to buy their oil. That's why embargos eventually fail.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Mussolini will be privy to the Spain and Turkey operations.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Strategic surprise trumps that.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I count a tip off as information good enough to actually be actionable by the target. It doesn't count as a tip off if it isn't believed.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Continuous offensive in 1941 in Russia from June to November. There was a short stop after the opening victories, but that was due to victory disease, not actual need.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Both the British and the Germans state that the battle started in July. You tell them that they are wrong. Do so personally.

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The Bf-109 has a small space between the wheels, any bump could cause a crash. So much for the airplane and possibly the pilot. Many were lost that way. If the field gets wet, then you have mud and/or water puddles, also fun for air operations. The farther than bombers fly , the lighter the load, the more wear and tear on the air frames, the more tiring for the crew.

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You use the entire might of the Luftwaffe available to achieve air superiority. The British would be helping in Spain.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

You obviously know nothing about armoured warfare. The "short stop" was due to the need for maintenance on the vehicles. It would help if you personally knew something about the subject.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

I do hope for the sake of your credibility AS doesn’t mean anti-shipping - please tell me it doesn't mean anti-shipping....

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Again, you miss the point. Please have a look at the interest Goering took in a naval air arm. Please have a look at the interest Goering showed in ensuring there was a decent German aerial torpedo and also have a look at the stocks of said torpedoes. But in your scenario this man will magically change tack and order the building of as many aircraft as necessary, he will improve the torpedo and will, of course, ensure enough are built given the Mediterranean strategy to be employed. But this is a recurring theme - all German commanders who made mistakes - even major strategic, economic and politcal errors - are to be allowed miraculous Road to Damascus type conversions - unlike the plodding enemy who are strait-jacketed by history.

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We’ve done this to death.

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warspite1

And that is the basis for the Japanese policy of running down stocks of oil to critical levels? A gamble that the US - regardless of what is happening in Europe - will decide to back down. Wow Curtis Lemay. Just wow.

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warspite1

Of course he will. Again as we know from history, Hitler trusted the Italians implicitly and kept them informed of his every move. Except of course that is nonsense and it’s because he didn’t that Mussolini attacked Greece without telling Hitler first. But once again, the Axis do everything right in this scenario…..

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warspite1

No. No it doesn't. It doesn't come close. Hitler doesn't really want Spain in the war, he sure as hell doesn't want them in as an enemy.

But you think surprise trumps common sense? Well then it's a shame they won’t even achieve surprise eh?

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warspite1

Oh….so its hope for the three wise monkeys time. The chances of surprise given the need for troop movements, supplies being stockpiled and aircraft flights - all through enemy territory is so small it is not worth taking about.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

You obviously know nothing about armoured warfare. The "short stop" was due to the need for maintenance on the vehicles. It would help if you personally knew something about the subject.

No. It was primarily due to victory disease. If a tank breaks down, you send it off for repair. That doesn't require stopping the entire operation.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Both the British and the Germans state that the battle started in July. You tell them that they are wrong. Do so personally.

The real battle, with flights over England, didn't start till mid-August. Prior to that was just minor coastal raids.

None of this makes any difference whatsoever. Even if there are no air actions, that doesn't tell the British that the invasion is off. In fact, just the barges by themselves tell them the opposite.

It does make a difference. That was still aerial fighting. You cant just change the historical date of something and be taken seriously.

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The Bf-109 has a small space between the wheels, any bump could cause a crash. So much for the airplane and possibly the pilot. Many were lost that way. If the field gets wet, then you have mud and/or water puddles, also fun for air operations. The farther than bombers fly , the lighter the load, the more wear and tear on the air frames, the more tiring for the crew.

Plenty of grass fields used in that fashion regardless. And this is mid-summer - dry weather.

It still caused problems. How is going into Spain, into mountainous and hilly country better? The weather patters are different due to the tpography.

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You use the entire might of the Luftwaffe available to achieve air superiority. The British would be helping in Spain.

The British would not be helping in Spain prior to the invasion. Up till then, Spain is a neutral. After the invasion begins the Spanish Airforce will be largely destroyed on the ground. And then, the Germans can grab airfields in Spain.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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Again, you miss the point. Please have a look at the interest Goering took in a naval air arm. Please have a look at the interest Goering showed in ensuring there was a decent German aerial torpedo and also have a look at the stocks of said torpedoes. But in your scenario this man will magically change tack and order the building of as many aircraft as necessary, he will improve the torpedo and will, of course, ensure enough are built given the Mediterranean strategy to be employed. But this is a recurring theme - all German commanders who made mistakes - even major strategic, economic and politcal errors - are to be allowed miraculous Road to Damascus type conversions - unlike the plodding enemy who are strait-jacketed by history.

I'm talking about Stukas. Dual purpose aircraft. Good against ships and ground. Why would Goering object to that??!! Why would he object to an obvious need to protect coastlines from naval assault??!!

Stukas are easy to kill!

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We’ve done this to death.

Agreed. And, in the end it is nothing but an opinion. Mine is that he will not attack preemptively for the myriad reasons I've stated. But, if he does, it's not all bad for the Axis due to the debilitating impact of his being the aggressor.

What debilitating impact? The Soviet Union is not a democracy. If there is a debilitating impact then the Germans would suffer it as well.

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warspite1

And that is the basis for the Japanese policy of running down stocks of oil to critical levels? A gamble that the US - regardless of what is happening in Europe - will decide to back down. Wow Curtis Lemay. Just wow.

I'm sure the US doesn't go to war without being attacked. That leaves the option to do to the Dutch East Indies what they did to French Indochina - just occupy them without attacking either the UK or the US.

That's assuming, of course that the embargo doesn't collapse first, or that they get some sort of diplomatic heads up from the Germans that they are off on a tangent for a year.

EDIT: I found this conversation between the commander of the Pacific Fleet and Roosevelt:

Richardson asked the President if the United States was going to war. Roosevelt's view was:

At least as early as October 8, 1940, ...affairs had reached such a state that the United States would become involved in a war with Japan. ... 'that if the Japanese attacked Thailand, or the Kra Peninsula, or the Dutch East Indies we would not enter the war, that if they even attacked the Philippines he doubted whether we would enter the war, but that they (the Japanese) could not always avoid making mistakes and that as the war continued and that area of operations expanded sooner or later they would make a mistake and we would enter the war.'

Get that? The US wouldn't even go to war if they attacked the Philippines!!

You are referring to something from the previous year that was before the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!

quote:

warspite1

No. No it doesn't. It doesn't come close. Hitler doesn't really want Spain in the war, he sure as hell doesn't want them in as an enemy.

But you think surprise trumps common sense? Well then it's a shame they won’t even achieve surprise eh?

Of course it does. If there is an ultimatum it won't be issued far enough in advance for the Spanish to make any military reaction.

I guess that you are proof that common sense does not win . . .

Any ultimatum gives warning, it does not take much time to render roads/railroads impassible, especially in wooded, hilly, and/or mountainous terrain.

quote:

warspite1

Oh….so its hope for the three wise monkeys time. The chances of surprise given the need for troop movements, supplies being stockpiled and aircraft flights - all through enemy territory is so small it is not worth taking about.

Good, because you don't know what you are talking about.

My point is, if the reactions of the invaded are no different than they would be if they hadn't been warned, then we can conclude that the warning - if any - wasn't sufficient to count as a warning.

Tell that to the Kriegsmarine going to Oslo.

You don't need to know anything about any intel the Danes, Norwegians, Yugoslavs, Greeks, French, British, or Soviets had. Their behavior tells you all you need to know. How could the Germans amphibiously invade Narvik if the RN knew it was coming? The Greeks would have redeployed to their interior where their lines couldn't be rolled up like they were at their northern boundary. The French and British would have been waiting for that thrust through the Ardennes. The Soviets would not have been caught so flatfooted - despite the enormous force at their doorstep.

The beautiful weather off Norway at that time of year might have had something to do with it. Remember, the RAF used FROZEN LAKES for their aircraft.

And, let's go further: How about the failure to detect the Bulge offensive in 1944. Again, with total AS.

Winter weather, clouds and snow.

And, let's be clear. The Spanish don't even have aerial recon to help them. The presence of Germans in the area has to be expected - they're occupying the coastline. There's no way any ground observers are going to figure out the magnitude of what is in the area, or its intent. Just think: Monty had full air superiority over Holland plus the Dutch underground. He still dropped an airborne division on an SS Panzer Corps.

Monty did not listen to his intelligence officers, they British also discounted intelligence that did not fit what they wanted. He did not know that he had a British airborne division dropping onto an SS Panzer Corps.

The Spanish don't need aerial recon. Spaniards helped the French underground and were also in the French underground. The people on both sides of the border there are Basques with familial ties across the border. You can't seal the border good enough to prevent contact there nor among boats in the Bay of Biscay.

The Spaniards will be caught flatfooted, just like everyone else in this period.

Why? What proof do you have?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Air Superiority. Flights over England.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm talking about Stukas.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm sure the US doesn't go to war without being attacked.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Well, the Spanish operation will go off before Compass. So he will be aware of that. And therein would be the basis for falling back.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

If there is an ultimatum it won't be issued far enough in advance for the Spanish to make any military reaction.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Spaniards will be caught flatfooted, just like everyone else in this period.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Not sure why you can’t get the phases of such a key battle right but doesn’t bode well

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Okay, you go with the stukas. Ignore torpedo carrying aircraft, they weren’t important.

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Nice attempt at a side step there. The question was what does Japan do? Japan does what she did in real life. She is faced with having to withdraw from China. She won’t do that, she can’t do that. She needs oil and putting the US Fleet (so they hoped) out of action would give them time to do that.

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But you are desperate for this scenario to work, so you need everyone to act how they didn’t in the real war - with no plausible reason.

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What is the relevance of Spain before Compass?

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The relevance of the ultimatum is essentially that it all adds to the time before the Germans can begin their assault on Spain – and it ain’t gonna be in July. I don’t have what I would call a verified source for this, but I understand that Franco wasn’t stupid and as soon as Hitler started sniffing around, he increased the military presence on the Franco-Spanish border as a precaution. No reason to believe he wouldn’t do the same here.

quote:

No. You have a whole army group led by armoured formations heading into southwest France. For what? Occupation duty?? This is nominally neutral territory of course – but is nothing of the sort. Plenty of pro and anti-German as well as neutrals. The movement will be spotted and the Spaniards alerted. What the Spaniards will be able to do with that knowledge is of course limited, but they will have it nonetheless.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Stukas are easy to kill!

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What debilitating impact? The Soviet Union is not a democracy. If there is a debilitating impact then the Germans would suffer it as well.

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You are referring to something from the previous year that was before the PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Again, you know nothing about armoured warfare nor PMCS.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The beautiful weather off Norway at that time of year might have had something to do with it. Remember, the RAF used FROZEN LAKES for their aircraft.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Eagle Day was mid-August. Regardless, they can't know the invasion if off till the weather breaks - sometime in October at the earliest.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I'm not ignoring torpedo elements. But you say they are impossible to obtain.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Circumstances have changed from historical. The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse. And we now know that Japanese occupation of the Dutch East Indies will not trigger war with the US!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The scenario does work. Plenty of wargames say so. The Spanish are supermen! 21st Century guerrilla warfare! On and on.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

It signals that the Germans are doing a Mediterranean plan. No point in a risky stab at the pyramids under those circumstances.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No ultimatum and no delay.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I've explained over and over how impossible to detect such movements are - especially without air superiority. And even if detected, the Spanish will have no way to determine intent. It is completely expected that the Germans will move to occupy that area.

The Spanish will be caught flat-footed, just like everyone else in this period.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

Okay, you go with the stukas. Ignore torpedo carrying aircraft, they weren’t important.

I'm not ignoring torpedo elements. But you say they are impossible to obtain. I think that's garbage, but Stukas are good enough for all shipping other than BBs. And they can damage BBs - which take a long time to repair. And they still have some torpedo elements. They will be located near Gibraltar.

Stukas are easy to kill, that is why they were withdrawn from the Battle of Britain. Are you incapable of comprehending that?

quote:

Nice attempt at a side step there. The question was what does Japan do? Japan does what she did in real life. She is faced with having to withdraw from China. She won’t do that, she can’t do that. She needs oil and putting the US Fleet (so they hoped) out of action would give them time to do that.

Circumstances have changed from historical. The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse. And we now know that Japanese occupation of the Dutch East Indies will not trigger war with the US!

Not true, we don't know that. The Pacific Fleet was moved to Hawaii for a reason. The DEI was not like Vichy Indochina.

quote:

But you are desperate for this scenario to work, so you need everyone to act how they didn’t in the real war - with no plausible reason.

The scenario does work. Plenty of wargames say so. You're the one who's desperate. The Spanish are supermen! 21st Century guerrilla warfare! On and on.

Wargames that we play are not real life. They can't make such a game true to life, it would be too complex and it would never sell.

quote:

What is the relevance of Spain before Compass?

It signals that the Germans are doing a Mediterranean plan. No point in a risky stab at the pyramids under those circumstances.

Little Bennie would still have done so. He did not want to be second fiddle nor irrevelant.

quote:

The relevance of the ultimatum is essentially that it all adds to the time before the Germans can begin their assault on Spain – and it ain’t gonna be in July. I don’t have what I would call a verified source for this, but I understand that Franco wasn’t stupid and as soon as Hitler started sniffing around, he increased the military presence on the Franco-Spanish border as a precaution. No reason to believe he wouldn’t do the same here.

No ultimatum and no delay.

But you previously stated ultimatum. There were only elements of a Panzer division on the border, you want them to attack? Why can't you get things straight? Oh, that's right, those good pharmaceuticals.

quote:

No. You have a whole army group led by armoured formations heading into southwest France. For what? Occupation duty?? This is nominally neutral territory of course – but is nothing of the sort. Plenty of pro and anti-German as well as neutrals. The movement will be spotted and the Spaniards alerted. What the Spaniards will be able to do with that knowledge is of course limited, but they will have it nonetheless.

I've explained over and over how impossible to detect such movements are - especially without air superiority. And even if detected, the Spanish will have no way to determine intent. It is completely expected that the Germans will move to occupy that area.

The Spanish will be caught flat-footed, just like everyone else in this period.

Not everyone was caught flat footed.

I explained to you that the movements would be detected. The Spanish Maquis would have told the Spanish government about them, no airplanes needed. Basques live on both sides of the border, they would communicate with each other. You don't need to know intent if you see an army moving towards you. Unless they are also taking the good pharmaceuticals that you seem to be consuming.

< Message edited by RangerJoe -- 8/21/2020 4:00:03 PM >

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child

(in reply to Curtis Lemay)

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

The British can know whether an invasion (which many didn't believe anyway) is serious, by the measures being taken by the enemy, the number of aircraft employed, the number of barges in the various channel ports etc.

How do the Germans prove to the British that they are serious without taking serious steps? You've said the Germans are going for a Mediterranean strategy but in real life the Germans got severely mauled using almost their entire Luftwaffe. Using less aircraft (an air fleet will be needed for Spain) as a decoy in half arsed attempts to make the British believe an invasion is coming won't wash if the Germans employed are failing to achieve anywhere near the results historically - and historically they weren't enough. This buggers muddle is a receipe for loads more German casualties though.

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Where did I say they were impossible? The Luftwaffe had torpedoes. Why would I say something that was used and was real was impossible? I think you need to pay attention.

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What hasn't changed from the historical?

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Japan won't back out of China, and Japan needs oil. Its main oil supply is about to be cut off.

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Japan will choose war.

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"The scenario does work" because a bunch of war gamers told you so.

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But yes, I do believe to the extent that partisans are a hornets nest, this Spanish nest is going to be mighty cheesed off.

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So everyone is working towards Hitler's victory.

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Correct. Apart from the ultimatum, which would follow Franco's initial refusal to join in on a voluntary basis, and of course the previous delay caused by the fact that the Germans weren't even considering beating France by the end of June, let alone have any thought of attacking - or being in a position to attack - Gibraltar at almost any point during Red. For one thing they didn't know the French were going for an armistice rather than a fighting retreat to the coasts and from thence to Algeria.

You just love to use hindsight. But it's wrong.

quote:

The Spanish will know they are coming. As said, what they can do about it is less certain. But that is a reflection of their armed forces, the generally state of the country and the almost complete lack of oil. It is not a reflection of the fact they weren't tipped off.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Rubbish! They don't know what the invasion plan might involve. They might be planning a night invasion - the RAF wouldn't even be involved. "Darkest Hour" postulated fast motorboats as the invasion vector. They will never be able to abandon their coast till the weather breaks.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

You threw a fit about them. But, if torpedo planes are now OK, great!

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Soviets are not heavily engaged and certainly not looking like they're about to collapse.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

It's been cut off for quite a while (since their takeover of French Indochina. But they estimated then that they had two years of stocks. So, that's still left (and they were only getting 80% of their oil from the US, so 20% was still arriving).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Not with the US while the Soviets are free and clear. As I said, they could try to take just the East Indies.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Not wargamers. Famous wargame designers. Guys earning a living doing so. And note that SPI had the Spaniards right.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I don't think guerrilla warfare was any more than an irritant in WWII. Everyone is thinking of how it has manifested itself in the Modern World.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

No. I'm saying that when circumstances change, divergence from the historical narrative takes place.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

Correct, they didn't know they would be so successful against the French.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

There is no way they're detecting anything.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805