Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: AndrewNguyen1984

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ORIGINAL: thewood1

People just don't learn.

And someone reminded me of the most powerful weapon they have to use against us. Our own debt of which the Chinese own a large amount of. To sum it up, they own us.

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ORIGINAL: Dysta

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1449467671506993159

If this is true, then China answered the INF that torn by US, by tearing the OSW treaty.

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ORIGINAL: MaxDemian

Why should China feel the need to answer to the US exit from the INF? China was never a INF signatory to begin with, and the continued adherence to the INF was to a great disadvantage for the US.

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ORIGINAL: RoryAndersonCDT

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ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

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It sets a good potential scenario for CMO. Not an outright war, but maybe a limited blockade with a missile threat

I was actually thinking the same, but I'm trying to get away from huge scenarios. I was thinking how to work this, maybe 30 days into a blockade and a united Western force tries to break it to feed a starving Taiwan.

This is the concept I've been playing around recently. Inverted Cuban missile crisis.

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This is the concept I've been playing around recently. Inverted Cuban missile crisis.

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Kevin Baron makes some wild and irresponsible claims in response to news that China has flown dozens of military aircraft through one corner of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ):

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China sends 52 warplanes over Taiwan. Xi is seriously poking at Biden and testing the United States response. Putin walked into Ukraine because the West wasn’t going to fight for it. Will Xi be allowed to do the same?

Baron either misunderstands or mischaracterizes what is happening, and then he makes an even more ridiculous leap by comparing these flights to Russian military intervention in Ukraine. That would be bad enough if he were just some rando on Twitter, but he is the executive editor of Defense One, a fairly important news site on military matters and national security. If someone in his position is out there making this kind of mistake, it doesn’t bode well for having a sane debate over anything related to Taiwan.

To be clear, Chinese forces have not entered Taiwanese airspace, much less flown “over” Taiwan. If the PLAAF started flying over Taiwan, that would indeed be provocative and dangerous, but nothing like this has happened. Some China hawks seem so eager to sound the alarm over the smallest thing that one can’t help but think that they are itching for an excuse for conflict.

Mike Black tells everyone to calm down:

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"The PLA conducts routine training in international airspace a few hundred miles off its coast" doesn't have the same breathless ring to it but is a more accurate description of what's actually happening.

To put all this in perspective, we need to remember that China has its own ADIZ, and the U.S. sends bombers into that area and has been doing so for years. When U.S. planes enter this zone, they are not entering Chinese airspace, and they certainly aren’t flying over China. These flights are obviously not welcomed by the Chinese government, and they are meant to send a message to Beijing, but they are not actually threatening anything. So when Chinese planes travel through one corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ, we should not panic and declare that China is “seriously poking at Biden.” The Biden administration criticized the flights this week, and that is all that they needed to do.

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ORIGINAL: jbyng

I'm wondering if these recent Taiwanese ADIZ incursions are made up of legitimate strike packages, or just a collection of aircraft. I saw these included in the Oct 18 flight (no further info on which variants):
34 J-16 (fighter)
12 H-6 (bomber)
2 Su-30 (fighter)
2 Yun-8 (there's about a hundred variants, including ASW and an airborne command post)
2 KJ-500 (AWACS)

It certainly looks legit to me, but for any PLAAF experts out there, please weigh in on composition, balance, missing elements, etc. Thanks!

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ORIGINAL: Hongjian

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ORIGINAL: jbyng

I'm wondering if these recent Taiwanese ADIZ incursions are made up of legitimate strike packages, or just a collection of aircraft. I saw these included in the Oct 18 flight (no further info on which variants):
34 J-16 (fighter)
12 H-6 (bomber)
2 Su-30 (fighter)
2 Yun-8 (there's about a hundred variants, including ASW and an airborne command post)
2 KJ-500 (AWACS)

It certainly looks legit to me, but for any PLAAF experts out there, please weigh in on composition, balance, missing elements, etc. Thanks!

Looks about right. Y-8 were ASW and ELINT, but in a strike, they would replace the ASW variants with stand-off jammers.

The J-16s and Su-30s are multirole here, but would probably first be used for CAP duties equipped with PL-15s (PL-12 for the older Su-30s). H-6 bombers would be the main strike package for Taiwan but if they had CJ-10s for that strike, they wouldnt need to go too far anway due to the range, so I guess this was just signaling.

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ORIGINAL: Dysta

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ORIGINAL: MaxDemian

Why should China feel the need to answer to the US exit from the INF? China was never a INF signatory to begin with, and the continued adherence to the INF was to a great disadvantage for the US.

On the contrary, I think it’s what China wanted. US would never want to prove the rival’s weapons are effective by copying theirs (such as DF-21D/26, nobody is copying them so to keep it ‘theoretically useless’ until war happens), so they will innovate and introduce new weapon systems to deter against Chinese/Russian long range missiles and other high-tech weapons. What Russia and China can simply do is copying their new weapon concepts without unveiling it’s actual effectiveness, to keep on the guess games to US.

In the end it’s the current ammunition that can deliver to the enemy’s soil have the final say, hence the proliferation of ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones.

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And as if this third surprise is not enough ... there are even more surprises: Altogether two WS-20 powered Y-20B are visible together with several more regular Y-20A transports and Y-20U tanker.

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And right after the two surprises J-20B & J-35 (3) last week, here is the next one: The first clear image of the two so far known KJ-600 prototypes.

One is spotting the now common green primer and the other one is already painted in PLAN grey.

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ORIGINAL: thewood1

They can't block off any part of the Pacific. Their own economy will fail and collapse. Have you even looked at any of the data?

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ORIGINAL: thewood1

They can't block off any part of the Pacific. Their own economy will fail and collapse. Have you even looked at any of the data?

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ORIGINAL: BeirutDude

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ORIGINAL: thewood1

They can't block off any part of the Pacific. Their own economy will fail and collapse. Have you even looked at any of the data?

I stopped engaging. He has his view and nothing anyone says is going to change his mind. To sum his view up, the PRC are omnipotent supermen and the Western powers are just stupid morons who simply have no ideas and can't get out of their own way! Waste of electrons to speak reason to someone who won't listen.

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ORIGINAL: maverick3320
Yeah, same here. it's a really weird place for someone to continue to post about how great China is and how the sky is falling in the US. It's almost like if a country hired people to talk about how great they were, and how weak other countries were on the internet. I'm sure no country would ever be that insecure, though.