Blackhorse -> RE: WITP2: The Struggle Against China 2011-2018? (12/3/2005 4:21:36 PM)
|
The only (remote) potential for a war between China and the USA in the next several decades is if the Chinese decide to invade Taiwan. China is an "expanding" power, but it still has lots of empty room in its resource-rich West, and a lot of demographic reasons to expand there. 90% of Chinese are ethnic "Han" Chinese, but nearly all of them live east of Xian. In the western half of the country, 50% of the population are potentially troublesome ethnic minorities. The government of China is following the tradition of US news magnate Horace Greely by urging the Han to "Go West, young man." China's recent past -- and potential future -- military clashes with India, Vietnam and Russia were border disputes. Unlike Hitler's Germany, China does not have ambitions to conquer vast new territories; China has every reason to avoid adding new restive minorities to its rule. Regaining Taiwan is an emotional rallying-point for Chinese, regardless of ideology, and it is possible that a failing government in Beijing could launch an invasion to divert public attention from its own failings (see: Argentina: Falkands). But, IMHO, domestic problems would have to be very far along for China to invade Taiwan without caring about the US reaction. Economically, the USA and China are actually allies: the Chinese are kindly absorbing the inflationary impact of the USA's budget and trade deficits, and providing low-cost goods to American consumers; in return, America's consumers are buying what China produces, and fueling its rapid economic growth.
|
|
|
|