RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific

RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (Full Version)

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aztez -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/15/2006 1:58:07 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Kapten Q Hi aztez, I am also involved in a PBEM using 3day turn cycle. Whats your thoughts on that so far. One thing I have realized is that you can not see incoming raids from enemy TF before they actually hit. Makes you think twice before moving any shiping betwen bases in hot areas. I also think it slows down the speed of advance a bit, must say erstad moves with the speed of lightning compared to me! Q Hi Kapten Q and welcome to the thread. Good question. I'am really enjoying 3 day turn cycles too. Dave ambushed me with his invasion forces early on as you stated I did not see them coming. We do not have a lot of action at the moment with this one since I'am too "scared" on making offensives just quite yet. With 3 day cycles mistakes can be very costly since you cannot take your orders back after 1 day! (I almost lost 2 USCM Division when I tried to sail them to Oz area and part of the KB was lurking down in the South. If it would have been 1 day turns I propably could have avoided that "disaster" too) I think that is the biggest diffrence with turn cycles. It is also affecting the ground combats too. Dave managed to beat up my Chinese troops with his shock assaults and I was not prepared for it. (Thankfully he stopped maybe due to the lack of supplies) One important thing why I like 3 day (and 2 day) cycles is that you actually have an chance of completing a game someday. That is the key reason why I'am not a fan of 1 day cycles. I think there are not many games using multi day turns so lets say it is diffrent. Are you having fun with your game?

Kapten Q -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/15/2006 2:24:58 PM)
Yes great fun actually, allthogh I am playing against a PBEM rookie so he is taking quite a beating at the moment. I am playing the sons of Nipon. Every other turn we discuss game fetures and tactics. He will probably thrash me in -43[:(]. We also use niks mod 5 so the chinese are not so easely subdued with level 9 forts everywhere. Q

aztez -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/15/2006 9:28:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Kapten Q Yes great fun actually, allthogh I am playing against a PBEM rookie so he is taking quite a beating at the moment. I am playing the sons of Nipon. Every other turn we discuss game fetures and tactics. He will probably thrash me in -43[:(]. We also use niks mod 5 so the chinese are not so easely subdued with level 9 forts everywhere. Q I actually think that the situation would be somewhat diffrent if we were using Nik's mod. I doubt Dave would have been so aggressive in China instead I think India or Pearl Harbour would have propable targets. He has actually lost only 20 ships [8\|] . He has covered his invasions with more than sufficient LBA and naval airpower. It is nice to hear that you are enjoying your 3 day cycle game. I would recommend to everybody to give it a go. [:)]

Sardaukar -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/16/2006 1:21:02 PM)
I think next CHS version is having considerable improvements in China too...and terrain changes in AB map. That should make it lot difficult to wage blitzkrieg there. And I like CHS/AB map, it makes North Oz more historical, for example.

aztez -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/19/2006 6:28:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Sardaukar I think next CHS version is having considerable improvements in China too...and terrain changes in AB map. That should make it lot difficult to wage blitzkrieg there. And I like CHS/AB map, it makes North Oz more historical, for example. I kind of like what the new RHS includes. Unfortunately I do not have proper time to start a new game currently. (This one vs Dave and the vs FDR are enough for the moment being) This game is far from "dead". We are nearing november 1942 but there is no battles to report. Both sides are waiting for the other to move. To be honest I'am too "scared" to start offensives quite just yet.

Nemo121 -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/20/2006 4:05:49 AM)
20 ships? LOL! I lost that many in just one week when I was conducting the amphibious invasion of India. He really is into force conservation. You can use this against him.

aztez -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/20/2006 12:34:12 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nemo121 20 ships? LOL! I lost that many in just one week when I was conducting the amphibious invasion of India. He really is into force conservation. You can use this against him. Hi Nemo. Yes 20. Unbelievable but true [8\|]! Erstad has not take any risks and when comes with an offensive he has solid CAP and plenty of troops at his side. You said I could use this againts him?

Nemo121 -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/20/2006 3:54:43 PM)
What you are seeing is an extreme application of the Lanchester Laws. Which basically boils down to saying that the ratio of effective combat power between two combatants is equal to the ratio of the square of the sum of their individual unit combat strengths... It also says that losses are inflicted and suffered in direct proportion to the ratio of EFFECTIVE combat power... E.g. I have 50 tanks facing an enemy equipped with 100 tanks of exactly the same make. With each tank having an effective combat power of 1 some people would look at the above situation and say that the weaker side will be annihilated while the stronger side will lose 50 or close to 50 tanks ( a kind of attritional 1 : 1 exchange ratio). The Lanchester laws would hold that the ratio of effective combat power ( all other things being equal) is 50 squared : 100 squared = 2500 :10,000 or 1:4 So, a side which brings greater combat power to the party will be able to: a) inflict greater losses per unit time on the enemy ( thus hurting him more before he gets the chance to flee) b) suffer far less loss to itself for a given amount of damage done to the enemy. In the example above if 50 of our tanks met 50 of the enemy you would expect both sides to totally destroy eachother. If, however, 100 of our tanks met 50 of the enemy one would expect the entire enemy force to be destroyed but OUR LOSSES to be reduced to 12-13 tanks ( this assumes perfect morale and no-one running away etc). )... So to achieve a result in which he has lost only 20 ships he must be massing his forces on a massive scale vs one target at a time... He thus can capture the target more quickly once combat commences and can do so at a square root of the losses he would otherwise expect. How can you use this? Simple: 1. to achieve such mass he must be robbing other areas blind and this gives you the opportunity to strike back there with small forces and with a fairly good chance of getting a fairly even balance of forces. 2. you can use the fact that to achieve this mass he must be foregoing operations in parallel in order to engage in operations in series to pick a place he is aiming towards 2 or 3 months from now, forego defending intermediate areas and throw everything into defending this 2nd or 3rd phase target. 3. If he is massing in order to minimise losses then that hints at a sensitivity to losses. Hit him where he is weak and cause loss and his reaction may well be to strip the main force to bolster subsidiary fronts. A CL-led DD TF is as lost to him from being stationed in Northern Japan to prevent raids against the Aleutians ( the threat of which is presented by a couple of US CAs, DDs etc) as it is if you lost triple that force in suicidal combat against his main force and destroyed the CL-led DD TF there. He loses the use of that DD flotilla in supporting his main strikes and you have, through a bit of fancy footwork, managed to achieve this loss at no cost to yourself. 4. Psychologically if he is risk-averse and casualty-sensitive you should try to mislead him into committing his main force against a target where you CAN hurt him. Admittedly you may not be able to hurt his carriers at this stage and you may not even be able to hold the atoll or island you are defending but, what's to say that you can't hurt his ground forces? His one force component you can, as the Americans, meet on relatively even ground in the first few months of 1942. So, what would I do if I were you. I'd identify his next series of targets and evacuate them ( unless you feel sure he won't be hitting them for another month and a half or so). I'd bring all of the ground units committed to these targets and concentrate them in 1 or 2 fortress islands you've identified as his phase 2 targets. I'd then ramp up the forts and just keep pouring RCTs and divisions in. Also throw in a lot of AAA and DP guns. Pinprick him with surface TF and carrier raids in non-essential areas he is not patrolling heavily. You aren't looking to inflict losses, just draw off flotillas from the main effort. If you can't stand against KB then when he launches the phase 2 assault against one of your island fortresses ( which should, if you are the Americans in early 42, be a leve 7 to 9 fort with a minimum of 3 divisions and masses of artillery with 100% prep + minefields so thick he can disembark a mile offshore and walk his men to shore without them getting their feet wet) don't even try to fight his surface fleet and KB with your own forces. Cede control of the seas and sky in the area to him... Your goal should be shattering his ground combat formations on the island fortress. Without ground combat troops his massive surface fleet cannot create a succesful invasion all by itself... and launch aggressive carrier and surface strikes against his holdings elsewhere. E.g. If he were to invade, let's say, Palmyra why not send your surface fleet and CVs to raid his supply lines in between Japan and Truk with bombardments in the Aleutians? Yes, LBA is an issue but that's why you have carrier fighters and the risk is far less than going up against the combined strength of KB. You won't achieve much but, perhaps, you will draw KB away from Palmyra and disrupt his resupply. Even if none of these is achieved you will lose less than in trying to go toe to toe with the Japanese fleet AND only his ground troops can take Palmyra away from you anyway. Put enough boots on the ground and no matter what he lands he will be left with shattered combat formations unsuitable for further offensive operations by the time the battle for the island fortress is over. Refuse to fight where he is strong but IF he brings the fight to you try to concentrate on fighting his weakest force component ( ground troops) and render his strengths irrelevant. That's be my advice in any case. I think much of the discussion of what to defend which has previously occurred is strategically invalid. I think you need to focus more on strengths and weaknesses and engaging his strengths in an asymmetric manner while engaging his weaknesses in symmetric manners. Avoiding fleet combat whilst accepting infantry vs infantry combat on a fortified atoll meets those requirements.

aztez -> RE: Peaceful times in the Pacific (5/22/2006 2:31:02 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nemo121 What you are seeing is an extreme application of the Lanchester Laws. Which basically boils down to saying that the ratio of effective combat power between two combatants is equal to the ratio of the square of the sum of their individual unit combat strengths... It also says that losses are inflicted and suffered in direct proportion to the ratio of EFFECTIVE combat power... E.g. I have 50 tanks facing an enemy equipped with 100 tanks of exactly the same make. With each tank having an effective combat power of 1 some people would look at the above situation and say that the weaker side will be annihilated while the stronger side will lose 50 or close to 50 tanks ( a kind of attritional 1 : 1 exchange ratio). The Lanchester laws would hold that the ratio of effective combat power ( all other things being equal) is 50 squared : 100 squared = 2500 :10,000 or 1:4 So, a side which brings greater combat power to the party will be able to: a) inflict greater losses per unit time on the enemy ( thus hurting him more before he gets the chance to flee) b) suffer far less loss to itself for a given amount of damage done to the enemy. In the example above if 50 of our tanks met 50 of the enemy you would expect both sides to totally destroy eachother. If, however, 100 of our tanks met 50 of the enemy one would expect the entire enemy force to be destroyed but OUR LOSSES to be reduced to 12-13 tanks ( this assumes perfect morale and no-one running away etc). )... So to achieve a result in which he has lost only 20 ships he must be massing his forces on a massive scale vs one target at a time... He thus can capture the target more quickly once combat commences and can do so at a square root of the losses he would otherwise expect. How can you use this? Simple: 1. to achieve such mass he must be robbing other areas blind and this gives you the opportunity to strike back there with small forces and with a fairly good chance of getting a fairly even balance of forces. 2. you can use the fact that to achieve this mass he must be foregoing operations in parallel in order to engage in operations in series to pick a place he is aiming towards 2 or 3 months from now, forego defending intermediate areas and throw everything into defending this 2nd or 3rd phase target. 3. If he is massing in order to minimise losses then that hints at a sensitivity to losses. Hit him where he is weak and cause loss and his reaction may well be to strip the main force to bolster subsidiary fronts. A CL-led DD TF is as lost to him from being stationed in Northern Japan to prevent raids against the Aleutians ( the threat of which is presented by a couple of US CAs, DDs etc) as it is if you lost triple that force in suicidal combat against his main force and destroyed the CL-led DD TF there. He loses the use of that DD flotilla in supporting his main strikes and you have, through a bit of fancy footwork, managed to achieve this loss at no cost to yourself. 4. Psychologically if he is risk-averse and casualty-sensitive you should try to mislead him into committing his main force against a target where you CAN hurt him. Admittedly you may not be able to hurt his carriers at this stage and you may not even be able to hold the atoll or island you are defending but, what's to say that you can't hurt his ground forces? His one force component you can, as the Americans, meet on relatively even ground in the first few months of 1942. So, what would I do if I were you. I'd identify his next series of targets and evacuate them ( unless you feel sure he won't be hitting them for another month and a half or so). I'd bring all of the ground units committed to these targets and concentrate them in 1 or 2 fortress islands you've identified as his phase 2 targets. I'd then ramp up the forts and just keep pouring RCTs and divisions in. Also throw in a lot of AAA and DP guns. Pinprick him with surface TF and carrier raids in non-essential areas he is not patrolling heavily. You aren't looking to inflict losses, just draw off flotillas from the main effort. If you can't stand against KB then when he launches the phase 2 assault against one of your island fortresses ( which should, if you are the Americans in early 42, be a leve 7 to 9 fort with a minimum of 3 divisions and masses of artillery with 100% prep + minefields so thick he can disembark a mile offshore and walk his men to shore without them getting their feet wet) don't even try to fight his surface fleet and KB with your own forces. Cede control of the seas and sky in the area to him... Your goal should be shattering his ground combat formations on the island fortress. Without ground combat troops his massive surface fleet cannot create a succesful invasion all by itself... and launch aggressive carrier and surface strikes against his holdings elsewhere. E.g. If he were to invade, let's say, Palmyra why not send your surface fleet and CVs to raid his supply lines in between Japan and Truk with bombardments in the Aleutians? Yes, LBA is an issue but that's why you have carrier fighters and the risk is far less than going up against the combined strength of KB. You won't achieve much but, perhaps, you will draw KB away from Palmyra and disrupt his resupply. Even if none of these is achieved you will lose less than in trying to go toe to toe with the Japanese fleet AND only his ground troops can take Palmyra away from you anyway. Put enough boots on the ground and no matter what he lands he will be left with shattered combat formations unsuitable for further offensive operations by the time the battle for the island fortress is over. Refuse to fight where he is strong but IF he brings the fight to you try to concentrate on fighting his weakest force component ( ground troops) and render his strengths irrelevant. That's be my advice in any case. I think much of the discussion of what to defend which has previously occurred is strategically invalid. I think you need to focus more on strengths and weaknesses and engaging his strengths in an asymmetric manner while engaging his weaknesses in symmetric manners. Avoiding fleet combat whilst accepting infantry vs infantry combat on a fortified atoll meets those requirements. That a lot of VERY useful information there. Thank you!!!

aztez -> Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 2:37:43 PM)
The game date is 1st of September 1942 Things have been quiet a long time but last turn Japanese navy showed up and invaded Johnston Island near Pearl Harbour. TF 94 encounters mine field at Johnston Island (102,74) Japanese Ships DD Ariake, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TF 32 encounters mine field at Johnston Island (102,74) TF 32 troops unloading over beach at Johnston Island, 102,74 Japanese Ships MSW Tasei Maru MSW Tama Maru #5 MSW Kongo Maru #2 MSW Banshu Maru #51 MSW Banshu Maru #8 MSW Wa 1 PC Shonon Maru #11 PC Shonon Maru #10 PC Sonan Maru #5 PC Fumi Maru #3 PG Zuiko Maru PG Kaikei Maru PG Ikunta Maru PG Hong Kong Maru PG Hayakafuku Maru TK Akebono Maru, Mine hits 1, on fire PC Takuna Maru #7 PC Kyo Maru #7 PG Magan Maru PG Kantori Maru PG Kaiun Maru PG Daido Maru DD Amatsukaze PC Kyo Maru #2 DD Shigure, Mine hits 1, on fire, heavy damage CL Kinu, Mine hits 1, on fire Japanese ground losses: 2543 casualties reported -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Johnston Island Japanese Shock attack Attacking force 12478 troops, 89 guns, 0 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 491 Defending force 2707 troops, 10 guns, 4 vehicles, Beginning Assault Value = 11 Japanese max assault: 464 - adjusted assault: 285 Allied max defense: 10 - adjusted defense: 2 Japanese assault odds: 142 to 1 (fort level 5) Japanese forces CAPTURE Johnston Island base !!! Japanese ground losses: 336 casualties reported Guns lost 3 Allied ground losses: 2708 casualties reported Guns lost 8 Vehicles lost 1 Those intel reports that some of the Japanese troops were planning for Pearl Harbour might have actually been true. ...or at least I cannot think any sensible other reason why to invade just Johnston Island since it is in range for allied LBA. The order have been given to counterstrike this invasion with the whole US Fleet at Pearl Harbour. Every allied bomber in the area has now been set for naval attack! Very intresting few days ahead. What are the Japanese up to??? [8\|][8\|][8\|][&:]

ny59giants -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 4:03:34 PM)
This seems to be very late to be conducting a Eastern Pacific campaign towards Hawaii. [&:] Since Johnson Island is a level 4 AF, he can base Betty/Nell there quickly with Zero's. [X(] This will be an interesting next month or so of game playing. [:D]

aztez -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 5:12:41 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ny59giants This seems to be very late to be conducting a Eastern Pacific campaign towards Hawaii. [&:] Since Johnson Island is a level 4 AF, he can base Betty/Nell there quickly with Zero's. [X(] This will be an interesting next month or so of game playing. [:D] It seems late date for me too but I guess he has prepared this invasion for a long time. I'am not going let him get this a�rbase for free. It doesn't sound good to Zero's and Betty's that near Pearl Harbour. I'am worried about this naturally since I cannot see this as a main thrust. Dave must have his eyes set on Pearl Harbour. I can't wait to get the next turn back from him.

Sardaukar -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 5:19:07 PM)
Sheesh!! I cannot wait what will happen either ! [8D]

Kapten Q -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 5:42:54 PM)
You seem to have PH, Palmyra, Christmas I area well defended. Don't worry and I would not go after him at Johnston I. Reduce him with LBA, perfect training oportunity. If he goes for the next target towards PH, Palmyra bring in everything you got and whack him. You will be playing at your home yard then. Suporting bases, plenty AV and LBA etc. Johnston is a stepstone towards the eastern Pacific but you should have enough power to stop him cold. Just wait until you have enough toys in 43, nothing can stop you then. He does buy himself time though, rounding up all those pesky atolls defended with 30000 mines whole infantry divisions and god knows what else does not come cheap for the allied player. You need to search for that one hole in the perimeter, bust it open and start roling. He will make you pay I'm sure, but you have unlimited reserves. And NOTHING can stop the allied LBA. Q

Rob Brennan UK -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 6:37:21 PM)
What Kapten Q said .. agree 100%

aztez -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 8:14:28 PM)
Appreciate the comments guys! [:)] I do have Palmyra, Christmas Island, Midway and Pearl Harbour (allthough bases nearby arent garrisoned properly since I do lack ground combat units). Too late to call back the US Fleet. They have sailed towards Johnston Island and when turn arrives back we much more what has happened. The strike force has also 3 Separate CV TF groups in naval attack!

ny59giants -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 9:07:25 PM)
The other thing is the big fleet wide upgrades you get in 10/42. After that, trying to go against a US CV TF is not healthy! [:D] He may feel that his "Midway" is now or never. [sm=duel.gif] You have Avengers on your CV's which help out with distance when launching strikes. By this time in your game, he should know whether you are cautious or aggressive in your playing style and may try to get you to attack him first and put up huge CAP to try to wipe out your planes before he does his attacks. I'm going to get more popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show. [:D][&o][:D]

aztez -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/22/2006 11:02:12 PM)
Definately this could be some sort of a trap by Dave. It is near 10/42 and as you said It is Midway now or never. Enjoy the show though... [:D][:(] I'am feeling somewhat unsure whether I still got a naval fleet left after next turn! [:D]

Nemo121 -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/23/2006 2:52:37 AM)
September is actually the perfect time for a thrust into Pearl Harbour IMO. He has the benefit of Tojos and Tonys replacing the Oscars for CAP over bases ( thus increasing their survivability) he captures and can use Zeros to provide escort/sweeps over the Hawaiian Islands. The American military has a procedure for partially discerning enemy intentions by keeping track of the most modern enemy equipment. It is highly unlikely that any enemy will commit his most modern and capable equipment to feint. While some human minds are devious enough to use this assumption against American intelligence services ( and other nations which have, historically, made similar but less codified assumptions) a commander who is a slave to the Lanchester Laws will never, willingly, commit less than maximal combat power to any crucial point. He is thus extremely unlikely to lower his maximal combat power in order to engage in maskirovka operations. This is a flaw in his approach which you should be aware of and which you can exploit (more so in 1943 than now to be fair). Make him think something is crucial by attacking it with strong forces but forces he can not only counter but significantly overmatch, convince him he can mass sufficient force there to achieve victory and ONLY THEN unveil the majority of your force. He will have committed the cream of his forces en masse in order to achieve the sort of cheap victory this doctrine promises and is therefore vulnerable to an opponent who practices maskirovka on the strategic scale ( which is necessary for this sort of plan to work). You will also need to be absolutely ruthless as you will need to throw away scores if not hundreds of four-engined bombers to lure sufficient of his forces into the "shooting gallery" before you lower the hammer. An example would be a bombing campaign from numerous airfields in which you sent in 100 four-engined bombers a day from very low experience airgroups ( sub-50) so that losses were high and results low. This would act as a lure for his crack anti-bomber fighter groups and in obedience to his doctrine he would mass in order to achieve decisive effects ( the turning back of your bomber streams). Continue this for at least a week or two until he is happy that you are falling into a pattern of sending limited force against him at disastrous cost. Then uncover the 400 to 500 bombers you have kept in reserve until now and obliterate the fields from which his crack daitai fly. Keep the pressure up and mix in everything which can kill grounded pilots and you can break these daitai for half a year. Phasing such an operation appropriately ( just prior to a series of strategically important offensives in-theatre) would allow your bombers to roam much more freely during the 4 to6 months of phased advances and decrease the overall cost of said advances. As the Americans this loss of inexperienced bomber crews is quite bearable. If you mix in a phased transition from your latest bombers to earlier models you can even deepen the maskirovka by making him believe you may be running out of modern bombers. Instead you will merely be saving the important bombers for your experienced crews while sending the expendable crews out in expendable planes. So you gain strategic advantage at almost no cost to yourself ( except in terms of lives and obsolete bombers... neither of which is a strategically limited resource for the Americans and, as such, if you are ruthless enough are irrelevant to you). So, anyways keep an eye out for Tonys and Tojos. They are a key indicator of his intentions. If they base into Johnston then he wants that base kept open and he is ranging for Pearl. If he keeps Zeroes there for CAP and escort he is committing a major mistake ( since you should do everything you can to attrit his ability to fly long-range escorts by accepting even unfavourable attrition via four-engined bomber strikes.... his Zeroes provide him an operational capability verging on the strategic and you should always try to whittle that down). The above is, of course, all premised on your opponent making a correct assesment of what Soviet doctrine would label as his forces' technical/tactical characteristics. Only you can judge if he has the ability to do this... this is a different skillset than his ability to mass operationally and strategically. Anyways, September gives him Tojos and Tonys and many experienced Oscar Daitai ripe for upgrading (thus maximising his combat power). It also represents a strike prior to your placement of your carriers in dock for their upgrades (thus minimising your combat power) and occurs at a time when you will have sufficient force at Pearl to put a serious crimp in your ground forces in 1943 should those divisions all be annihilated. Prior to August is, IMO, poor ( unless the Japanese go in on December 8th)and after October is also fraught with danger. September is, however, the perfect time from the point of view of the technical/tactical characteristics of the opposing forces. My advice would be that if you lose Pearl all else is held for naught. Concentrate on holding Pearl. Having 2 divisions scattered throughout Palmyra, Canton, Fiji etc is meaningless if Pearl is lost. Also if Pearl is lost those bases WILL fall. Concentrate everything at Pearl until it can hold against even his maximal thrusts ( 15 division-equivalents) and only then build up the rest. Holding strategic ephemera when you have lost the fulcrum of the Pacific will avail you nothing. Pearl is the corner of the barn in which you should wait with the shotgun. However if you wait there with a single shot shotgun when you had the option of bringing a double-barrelled shotgun it may avail you nothing that you knew he was coming. No, wait there with a double-barrel shotgun and when he comes for you smile and when the muzzle presses into his chest fire both barrels. You want to meet him at pearl with all the subtlety and restraint of two blind men having a chainsaw fight in a phone box. Show little strength until you can hit something decisive ( his carriers or his invasion transports) and then unload with everything ( four-engined LBA, twin-engined LBA, submarine woflpacks, surface strike groups and your carrier airgroups). Throw everything into the fray and realise that every ship and plane not committed to such a decisive battle is an error in disposition. Commit everything. Make sure the shotgun is as large as possible, as surprising as possible and when you unveil it make the very first shot as devastating as possible. The more devastating it is the more psychologically you will unsettle him and cause him to call into question his assessment of relative combat powers ( which is the key to his thinking)... in this the fact that he has suffered few losses will be to your advantage. For me the loss of 100 ships to take Pearl would be quite alright since I've lost more than that in just 4 months of my current game. To him it may prove a price too high to bear.

aztez -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/23/2006 3:35:00 PM)
Intresting insight to say at least Nemo!!! I checked and I have actually 2300 Assault points in Pearl Harbour along with US Fleet (BB's and CV's) also there are cream of the allied fighter/bomber power stationed there. The last turn came and intrestingly he DID NOT deploy any fighter nor bombers to Johnston Island. Neither were there any enemy shipping to be seen [&:] ...Weird to say at least. Why would he bother to even go for Johnston Island if he has NO intensions againts Pearl Harbour itself. Christmas Island and Palmyra has well over 1000 assaults points behind level 9 fortifications. These bases aren't easily overrun either. I do agree that I cannot loose Pearl Harbour. Luckily all of these base have supplies ranging from 300 000 to 900 000!!! They can be Alamo's of the Pacific. You suggested the maxium firepower to be used againts him and basically that is what I did!!! Here are my assaults on Johnston Island itself from last turn. Day Air attack on Johnston Island , at 102,74 Allied aircraft B-17E Fortress x 88 No Allied losses Airbase hits 2 Runway hits 17 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Johnston Island , at 102,74 Allied aircraft B-17E Fortress x 76 No Allied losses Airbase hits 4 Airbase supply hits 3 Runway hits 20 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Naval bombardment of Johnston Island, at 102,74 Allied Ships CL Honolulu CL Helena CA New Orleans CA Salt Lake City BB Mississippi BB Tennessee BB Pennsylvania Airbase supply hits 2 Runway hits 18 Port hits 2 Port supply hits 16 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Naval bombardment of Johnston Island, at 102,74 Allied Ships CL Phoenix CA Minneapolis CA Astoria BB Colorado BB Maryland Airbase hits 2 Runway hits 18 Port hits 5 Port supply hits 4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Naval bombardment of Johnston Island, at 102,74 Allied Ships DD Dewey DD Farragut DD Clark DD Balch DD Phelps DD Selfridge DD Monssen DD Grayson DD Gwin DD Meredith CL Nashville CLAA Atlanta CA Vincennes CA Quincy BB North Carolina BB Idaho Airbase hits 7 Airbase supply hits 3 Runway hits 34 Port hits 1 Port supply hits 7 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Johnston Island , at 102,74 Allied aircraft B-17E Fortress x 73 No Allied losses Airbase hits 8 Airbase supply hits 2 Runway hits 44 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TF 1051 encounters mine field at Johnston Island (102,74) (This is weird combat report) Japanese aircraft no flights Allied aircraft no flights Japanese aircraft losses Ki-27 Nate: 2 destroyed Ki-46-II Dinah: 1 destroyed G3M Nell: 1 destroyed D3A Val: 1 destroyed A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses I-16 Type 24: 1 destroyed Beaufort V-IX: 1 destroyed Japanese Ships TK Akebono Maru, and is sunk Allied Ships BB New Mexico, Mine hits 1, on fire DD Lamson, Mine hits 1, on fire Japanese ground losses: 107 casualties reported Guns lost 1 BB New Mexico needs some repairs. The system damage is at 18. As you can see I threw everything I got againts him immediately. I have a lot LBA's set on naval attack since I'am not relaxed about these latest developments. It is quite scary to hear you stating that September is actually optimal timeline to strike at Pearl. Knowing Dave he might as well think the sameway you do Nemo! I think next couple of turns will show whether Pearl Harbour will be in real danger. My gut feeling is that he will strike here.

Kapten Q -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/23/2006 5:03:48 PM)
Well he is not going to use Johnston I as a supply/fuel hub or airbase for the PH invasion anytime soon [:D]. Keep pounding the port and airfield with the heavies. I don't think he will take PH even if he brings 15 infantry divisions as you have 2300AV fully preped behind level 9 forts, plenty support, mucho supply and terrain bonus. He will be severely banged up when landing by several hundred of your CD guns etc blasting away at his ships. Your LBA and fleet will destroy his suporting elements, CV, BB, MSW, airforce and you will be able to deny him more supply for his units. He might stage in at Lahina or some other base to try and reduce PH before landing, then you will realy be able to grind him to dust. Force him to fight a surface action at PH when he sends in his 10BB + 14CA bombardement TF to hit your airfield, ie make your own 25 ship SCTF and sit tight, you should have spare assets to escort your CV and make some spare SCTF. After the smoke clears your LBA should take care of the rest. Palmyra and Christmas I seems more at risk to me, he could net some points there and destroy some of your precious LCU and LBA if he makes an all out effort. It will be costly and then you will be able to isolate him in turn. How much LBA do you have in this area? 600-700 fighters and bombers? Combined with your CV not even the mighty KB can stand up against this. The tide is turning, im sure you can feel it [8D]. Him not daring to stage in LBA or fleet assets at Johnston I because he was afraid of a visit by the grim reaper must be a sign. This is great fun, keep it up. Q

Nemo121 -> RE: Japanese invade Johnston Island!!! (5/24/2006 1:25:06 AM)
Aztez, I wouldn't have expected him to stage fighters into Johnston Island at this stage. Erstad is meticulous and casualty-averse. Sending in fighters etc now when all they would do is engage in indecisive attritional fighting vs your bombers runs completely contrary to his style. No, he will weather your bombings and only commit fighters when essential. If I were him I would send in AAA in order to dissuade bombers but I wouldn't waste fighters. He seeks short, decisive engagements not long drawn-out, attritional ones. Hence he won't stage fighters forward until such time as they form part of a cohesive, overwhelming force. I will outline how I would approach Pearl in his position and the reasons why and hopefully that can be of some help to you. 1. Take Johnston. Build it to the highest airbase level possible. Increase the port sufficiently so that supplies can be landed within one man's lifetime ;). Supplies will be needed in order to cover any invasion fleet coming into the Hawaiian Islands from the south-east... a direction I would tend to favour personally. I'd also slowly, over time, take Laysan and French Frigate Shoals. Each of these can, over time, be developed to hold 150 Army bombers (half maximum payload) and/or fighters for sweeps over Pearl. The fighters tend to decrease losses for Bettys and Nells operating out of Johnston ( and KB) while the bomber basing could be very useful when bases are closed and a nice group of 150 army bombers in each of these bases (swapped in instead of fighters) could keep the bases closed while the invasion fleets close. 2. NO need for fighters etc during this stage. He won't have many Tonys and Tojos and won't be silly enough to waste Oscars in attritional fighting vs B-17s. If he is serious about Johnston then you will begin seeing a lot of FlaK units there. With protection from FlAK he can prepare the island for offensive operations with little disruption. 3. Fighters are only needed when he must protect the bombers and don't expect the bombers until such time as he is ready to strike. Every day those bombers are present before a major threat to Pearl is in sight is another day in which you can concentrate your full bomber force against them and attrit them. This would be a situation in which he would willingly put himself on the losing side of a Lanchester equation and I can't see him makin such a grievous error. If it were me I would let you see KB approaching one day early from a threat axis designed to draw a carrier and surface TF response which put ur CVs in range of Bettys at Midway and Johnston ( only there wouldn't be any Bettys at Johnston). The next day all of the bombers and fighters which had been waiting at Wake, Midway etc would fly into Johnston, Laysan, French Frigate Shoals etc. Between KB, multiple bases for bombers and the surface TFs coming into range your bomber strikes would be fairly dispersed and survivable. With bomber groups with 99 morale he can afford to launch massive escorted daylight strikes ( or even more massive unescorted night strikes). These wouldn't close Pearl completely but you can bet they'd attrit your LBA sufficiently to allow KB to sprint into range and launch a strong enough strike to close Pearl. Repeat for other Allied airfields in the Hawaiian Islands and then take the islands around Pearl with the invasion TFs coming in from an unexpected direction ( possibly under cover of Zero-equipped CVEs) ... bring an Aviation regiment + Construction BN ( minimum) for each base to be occupied and then fly in all of those army bombers you've had in reserve. They can now continue the task of keeping Pearl's airfield etc closed while KB and the Bettys guard against relief convoys. The trick with Hawaii is to close the main base or two with Bettys and KB etc but swap in Helens and Sallys ASAP so that your less renewable assets ( navy pilots) are preserved for the fight against Allied relief efforts. One the base is closed continued bombing raids ( at heavy cost) can keep it closed. As to why he might take Johnston without intending to go for Pearl... If he wants Palmyra etc then securing Johnston will help secure his flank. If he wants to go for Palmyra and Xmas then let him. So long as the Hawaiian Islands are yours Palmyra and Xmas are not strategically decisive. They neither prevent your offensives from Pearl nor support an offensive by Erstad against Pearl. Of course he may have decided that he doesn't have the strength to take Pearl and be settling for 2nd-best. If that's the case then let him. Fighting for Palmyra and Xmas is not a strategic necessity and, at this stage, will probably not result in favourable attritional losses so I see no positive reason for you to engage to such a fight. Basically though... He takes his time and attacks when ready. Have patience and bide your time, I doubt you can do anything to rush him. Just resist the temptation to try to reinforce that which is not essential and wait. Eventually he WILL come at you again and if you are lucky that can be your time to let him have it with both barrels. lastly, something I have long extolled: If he has the initiative then remember that most people will, if left to their own devices, fashion a noose out of any rope lying around. He has the rope ( the initiative) and now you give him the time... just be ready to ready with the shotgun in case he bucks the odds and doesn't make a rope ;).

aztez -> The situation at CenPac is growing intense. (5/25/2006 10:47:06 PM)
Your predictions are almost to the point Nemo! Only significant diffrence is that he has moved expirenced Zero's to Johnston Island. Also there is no sign of his naval forces yet. Allthough I would assume that they are not far off from their targets. As suggested I'am building up Pearl Harbour while I still can do so. There 1 US Divison that is ordered to start their journey from San Francisco to Pearl Harbour. If this is succesfull than I will have nearly 3000 assault points waiting him there. Hilo and Lahaina do not have sufficient troops to stand up againts enemy landings. What these bases got instead is mines. Both of these places have around 4000 mines in place. That should hamper his transport ships quite a bit. I have 200 fighters, 60 fighter bombers and 500 bombers on standby at Pearl Harbour. There is also the whole US Navy in the area. As Nemo said he might also be heading towards Palmyra or Christmas Island. Around 1500 assault points here with level 9 fortifications. The supply situation is also excellent. Here are couple of combats from last turn. Game date is 9th of September 1942 He has put up quite an CAP at Johnston Island. Day Air attack on Johnston Island , at 102,74 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 90 Allied aircraft B-17E Fortress x 63 Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed, 21 damaged Allied aircraft losses B-17E Fortress: 24 destroyed, 15 damaged -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Johnston Island , at 102,74 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 86 Allied aircraft B-17E Fortress x 31 Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed, 13 damaged Allied aircraft losses B-17E Fortress: 4 destroyed, 19 damaged Those 4E bombers took a beating so I have put the LBA bombers on Naval attack next turn. Johnston Island will be hit again but this the navy will bombard the place from sea. Allied CV Fleet is also moving into the area and are set on naval attacks just in case there are any enemy ships in the area. I guess it seems quite obvious that something "bad" is about to happen in CenPac. The target is still somewhat unclear!!!

Rob Brennan UK -> RE: The situation at CenPac is growing intense. (5/26/2006 12:25:59 AM)
I think he's heading for PH .. will be interesting [;)] absoluletly nothing to add to nemos post .. too darn thorough [;)]

Nemo121 -> RE: The situation at CenPac is growing intense. (5/26/2006 1:54:36 AM)
Just my 2 cents... IF he goes for Palmyra or Xmas let him... They are entirely non-essential and going for them would be a mistake at this point. ALWAYS allow your opponents to fully commit to his mistakes ;). If you engage engage only in order to get him to commit more fully. Don't engage so strongly that you dissuade him from actively following up on his error. Still, my personal assessment would be that if he goes for Palmyra etc it is only because he feels that he isn't strong enough to go for Pearl. Since he has suffered very light losses he should be strong enough to go for Pearl at this time and isn't likely to make a major strategic error at this time. So, taking the above into account its Hawaii. A few points: 1. If he is using Zeroes there then it is because his Tojo and Tony numbers are low and he is saving them for later ( CAP over Hilo and escorts for army bombers to Pearl etc when he takes non-Pearl Hawaiian bases). I would view this as potentially pointing to an invasion of a non-Pearl base on the Hawaiian islands as opposed to an immediate direct amphibious invasion of Pearl itself. 2. When bomber attacks fail to destroy a base it is almost de rigeur to send in a bombardment TF. As such I would strongly suspect that Erstad is ready for such an obvious move with either a naval reaction force or a CVE/CVL-based covering force ready to make you pay for such a bombardment run. Don't forget also that Bettys from Midway can also reach any ships damaged in the bombardment. Certainly if I were coming for Pearl I would have foreseen a naval bombardment as being the 2nd American answer to the Johnston Island problem and would have viewed a bombardment TF as an EXCELLENT opportunity to destroy major allied surface units ( CA and above) at no risk to my invasion TFs. I would be happy to lose a few Zeroes for some CAs and CLAAA at Johnston since those ships would be potentially devastating to my invasion TFs if operating under cover of their own LRCAP and LBA. Question: In your game so far does it seem that he analysis the contingencies and is prepared for them or does he extemporise? 3. Overall I would seriously question whether now is really the right time to try to hit back. It really seems like he is committed to coming within range of your LBA... a situation which maximises the effectiveness of your surface combatants. In any case if you hit Johnston Island now he will just repair it and you will be forced to commit your LBA to keeping it closed ( not a good idea as they will be worn down when his invasion APs come into range) +/- more bombardment TFs and while you might get away with the first bombardment you surely won't get away with a 2nd or 3rd. If you really feel you must close Johnston why not just bomb it at night from 6,000 feet? That should be fairly effective and once he switches a couple of the Zero daitai to NIGHT CAP you can put in the occasional day bomber raid to do massive damage at a much lower cost than you are currently paying. This will tend to preserve your bombers for the truly imporant anti-shipping missions which will come later. Still, Bettys ranging out of Johnston are highly unlikely to be decisive. I question whether you need to pare away at your LBA to prevent this basing since the opportunity cost is reduced effectiveness against APs when they come into range and those APs are more strategically decisive than Bettys at Johnston. Overall, patience. The closer you are to Pearl in any engagement the more it favours you. It really looks like he is coming for Hawaii. Let him, Pearl is your barn... Is it too late to evacuate the combat power from Palmyra and Xmas? 1500 AV at each base transferred to Hawaii would double your ground combat strength in the Hawaiian Islands. Personally I think he will land at a non-Pearl Hawaiian base and try to close the airbase with army bombers. It would allow him to maximise his bomber and fighter strength ( since he could bring army fighters and bombers into the fight) and that seems to be his style... Have you seen any reduction in army bomber and fighter committment to other fronts? It is difficult for me to give any more precise advice but, obviously, if you see a draw-down of army bombers and fighters elsewhere then he is planning to land at a non-Pearl Hawaiian base ( since that's the only circumstance in which army bombers and fighters with their lower range will be of utility). If you look back and notice this pattern then knowing the timing of the draw-down will tell you when his invasion TF approaches... as you can readily tell how long it would take to transfer the army bombers and fighters to CenPac and repair the damaged planes. He won't send in the invasion until the army planes are fully ready. It really doesn't seem to be his style to improvise anything on short notice.

aztez -> KB spotted west of Midway... Pearl Harbour in full alert. (5/26/2006 2:01:49 PM)
Yes. I wohn't send anymore infantry units to either Palmyra nor Christmas Island. A convoy reached Palmyra yesterday and that brought 1 WildCat squaron and 2 SBD Dauntless squadron there. Also 1 more WildCat squadron is enroute there. 64 P40B's are a turn away from Pearl Harbour and should reach it within 2 days. 37th US Infantry division has embarked San Francisco and are enroute to Pearl Harbour too. If the situation get's too intense I will turn this convoy back to West Coast. I agree too that it propably either Lahaina or Hilo that will be the initial target. But I think Pearl Harbour will be the main target. Those US BB TF's that struck Johnston Island are on their way back towards Pearl Harbour. They will not be bombarding nomore and will focus on the defense of Pearl Harbour as Nemo suggested it. My CV's will hopefully protect those TF and are moved between KB and Pearl Harbour. Here is latest news from CenPac. Day Air attack on TF at 101,65 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 129 D3A Val x 158 B5N Kate x 205 Japanese aircraft losses B5N Kate: 1 damaged Allied Ships DD Lawrence, Bomb hits 4, on fire, heavy damage DD Humphreys, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage DD Dent, Bomb hits 6, on fire, heavy damage PG Charleston, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage MSW Quatsino, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on TF, near Midway at 95,61 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 116 D3A Val x 41 B5N Kate x 62 Allied aircraft F4F-4 Wildcat x 9 No Japanese losses Allied aircraft losses F4F-4 Wildcat: 9 destroyed Allied Ships AK Mormachawk, Bomb hits 5, on fire, heavy damage AK San Gabriel, Bomb hits 10, on fire, heavy damage AK Waimea, Bomb hits 11, on fire, heavy damage AK Mormacland AK Peter Kerr, Bomb hits 8, on fire, heavy damage AK Mormacdove, Bomb hits 5, on fire, heavy damage AK Admiral Nulton, Bomb hits 13, on fire, heavy damage Needless to say that both of those TF are totally sunk!!! As for the questions posed... Have you seen any reduction in army bomber and fighter committment to other fronts? Actually I'am not quite sure. He has not used his LBA's other than in training missions at San Jose (Philippines). All the other fronts are totally quiet at the moment. Is it too late to evacuate the combat power from Palmyra and Xmas? It is not easy to sneak troops out since he now has Johnston Island and as you can see KB is in the area! If I were to move troops out I first need to send transport ships there since there are no shipping available in those bases.

aztez -> RE: KB spotted west of Midway... Pearl Harbour in full alert. (5/27/2006 1:08:39 PM)
Game date is 16th of September 1942 Somewhat of an intresting turn. There were no combat reports to speak of except the ongoing Japanese pilot training program at San Jose. My search planes spotted the bulk of the KB. Suprisingly it had sailed towards Solomons!!! It seems that the imminent danger at Pearl Harbour is over but it is strange to see such a force near Hawaji!!! Either he is just refueling his ships or is trying to make me think that the threat is gone... who knows [&:] Other possible option is that he saw that Pearl Harbour was too well defended and has changed the focus towards Palmyra and Christmas Island! One thing for sure is that I do not have adequate infantry nor naval forces to think about counterstrikes at this stage. Johnston Island still remains in Japanese hands. That would be an target of an oppurtunity!

jeffs -> RE: KB spotted west of Midway... Pearl Harbour in full alert. (5/27/2006 1:55:26 PM)
Nemo - You are truly devious in your thinking. You brought up a very interesting point about Lanchester Laws though. The book I mention in my signature "Kaigun" has a great analysis of how some parts of the IJN were slaves to its thinking and that was much of the reasoning behind the Japanese refusal to extend the Washington Conference (which fixed maximum naval strength in capital ships at 10 (US) : 10 (UK) : 7 (IJN) was based on applying the laws. The hawks in the IJN Basically thought that it was too dangerous to have the US allotted more tonnage. The non-hawks who had pushed it through had relucantly agreed with the US in that the US had both European and Pacific interests, thus it would have been difficult in practice for the US to have much of a lead in an actual war. More importantly, they concluded that an uncontrolled naval buildup would be too expensive. The reality (as they saw it) was there was no way Japan could outspend the US so it made more sense to be civil and save money. To quote the book "in the best interests of the nation, since it lessened the possibility of war and the need for a ruinous naval race to prepare for it" Unfortunately, the main architect of this policy, Adm Kato Tomosaburoh, died of cancer in 1923. [X(]His position would be taken over by Adm Kato Kanji (no relation) who was the mirror opposite in thinking. Kato Kanji would later purge the mid ranks of the IJN of many of it`s non-hawks[:-] In any case, much of these internal arguments were driven by the Lanchester Laws that Nemo mentioned.

aztez -> RE: KB spotted west of Midway... Pearl Harbour in full alert. (5/28/2006 2:36:50 PM)
Yes, I do agree that Nemo is very devious player too [:D][:D][:D] I intend to put this type of strategy in use when oppurtunity presents itself. Btw nice to see "new faces" reading this AAR. Unfortunately not much combat happening at the moment though since it seems my opponent has withdrawn his plans towards Pearl Harbour or at least he wants me think so. One of submarines got lucky last turn though... Sub attack at 57,48 Japanese Ships AK Italy Maru, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage MSW W.21 MSW W.8 MSW W.3 Allied Ships SS Thresher The most significant news from last turn was that 1 US Division has now reached Pearl Harbour safely. That puts my assault points up 2800 so I'am quite well defended here. I actually would like to have Erstad (Dave) try an Hawaji invasion.

Rob Brennan UK -> RE: KB spotted west of Midway... Pearl Harbour in full alert. (5/28/2006 3:46:32 PM)
just a thought , but how about splitting a div for use in hilo etc as a 1st line defence as he is very very unlikely to hit PH head-on.

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