RE: Allied aircraft production figures (Full Version)

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Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 8:26:51 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos

Z.Flisowski "Burza nad Pacyfikiem"

Aircraft ready to counter Home Islands invasion:
Army: 800 fighters, 3000 ready for kamikaze
Navy: 5145 planes (2500 of it were trainers).


When? What is the date for the figures? Though in fact, if half of the Navy's were trainers, there's probably good reason to suspect that a considerable number of the Army's were as well..., which would make that figure of 4100 First Line Aircraft sound pretty accurate.


Just a guess, but I think you're approaching that incorrectly. I'm not saying I agree with the figures, but apparently if you were to state that one branch had 2500 trainers to use, it would be pretty dumb to then exclude mentioning such a large number from the other branch.




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 8:45:55 AM)

Just as an aside on Olympic, though I will look up that book again when I get home, the superior allied front-line "combat" aircraft (do they consider kamikaze aircraft to be "combat" aircraft?) is basically irrelevant unless IJ goes on some big offensive they were certainly incapable of that late. This is of course because the allies can only use Olympic's TF planes and those of long range bombers to have any effect. I will check for accuracy again later, but basically the allies were numerically equal to what the book said the figures for IJ planes would have been. So while 21000 looks real impressive for the 7/45 matches that may occur, you're not having those 21000 available for what was needed against Japan. Japan faces them only when they get close to those other areas. I think when we see figures like that we have a tendency to say IJ was doomed on that basis alone, but you have to remember that even at that stage it probably wasn't too difficult for IJ to make as many if not more planes than the allies could put on CV's. It was just a matter of how many CV's would the allies feel like building as to whether the numbers got more in the allies favor. Naturally that says nothing for any other considerations such as how long either side could hold combat effectiveness and so on and of course the general poor IJ pilot quality (though being significantly minimized when used as a kamikaze).




Mike Scholl -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 9:28:32 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos

Z.Flisowski "Burza nad Pacyfikiem"

Aircraft ready to counter Home Islands invasion:
Army: 800 fighters, 3000 ready for kamikaze
Navy: 5145 planes (2500 of it were trainers).


When? What is the date for the figures? Though in fact, if half of the Navy's were trainers, there's probably good reason to suspect that a considerable number of the Army's were as well..., which would make that figure of 4100 First Line Aircraft sound pretty accurate.


Just a guess, but I think you're approaching that incorrectly. I'm not saying I agree with the figures, but apparently if you were to state that one branch had 2500 trainers to use, it would be pretty dumb to then exclude mentioning such a large number from the other branch.



Yes. It's an unjustified extrapolation based on the data presented. But hardly an unwarrented one. If the IJN was so desperate for aircraft to use in this "final decisive battle" (Must be about the 10th "decisive battle" of the war), it is a reasonable supposition that the IJA would also be having problems. And "trainers" don't necessarily mean "biplanes", they would also include obsolescent A/C such as Nates and Claudes and such from the early war period. These would not qualify as "First Line A/C" in 1945. My point was simply that the two sets of "data" were not "mutually exclusive", but gave a good apparence of being "mutually supportive"..




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 9:51:19 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos

Z.Flisowski "Burza nad Pacyfikiem"

Aircraft ready to counter Home Islands invasion:
Army: 800 fighters, 3000 ready for kamikaze
Navy: 5145 planes (2500 of it were trainers).


When? What is the date for the figures? Though in fact, if half of the Navy's were trainers, there's probably good reason to suspect that a considerable number of the Army's were as well..., which would make that figure of 4100 First Line Aircraft sound pretty accurate.


Just a guess, but I think you're approaching that incorrectly. I'm not saying I agree with the figures, but apparently if you were to state that one branch had 2500 trainers to use, it would be pretty dumb to then exclude mentioning such a large number from the other branch.



Yes. It's an unjustified extrapolation based on the data presented. But hardly an unwarrented one. If the IJN was so desperate for aircraft to use in this "final decisive battle" (Must be about the 10th "decisive battle" of the war), it is a reasonable supposition that the IJA would also be having problems. And "trainers" don't necessarily mean "biplanes", they would also include obsolescent A/C such as Nates and Claudes and such from the early war period. These would not qualify as "First Line A/C" in 1945. My point was simply that the two sets of "data" were not "mutually exclusive", but gave a good apparence of being "mutually supportive"..



I think I have more evidence to support my view Mike. Take those figures for exactly what they say. That's 3,800 army planes and 1645 navy planes. Add them together and you get 5445 planes, which is very close to the 5000 figure my book had for Olympic. I gave my interpretation that a failure to mention trainers for the army meant they weren't including them for some odd reason, whereas they felt comfortable doing that for the navy. My other take is that it's natural to assume that if they just forgot to mention army trainers, and if they were in fact part of that number, then it would also be more likely that you could follow the navy ratio to make a stab at that, which, though you didn't state a guess that is what I thought you were thinking. In any event you can see that if you took 445 planes as trainers from the army, a much smaller ratio than the navy planes, you would then attain the 5000 Olympic ready figure. So getting back to the alleged 4100 planes for the entire pacific (this wouldn't include China as part of the Pacific I would take it) when the planes were plummeting each interval, just how does that jibe with the higher figure for Olympic? I made a special note that the figure said front-line "combat" aircraft, so it is quite possible that they did not regard kamikaze as combat aircraft, which from Okinawa onwards would certainly be worth accounting for.




ChezDaJez -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 10:44:37 AM)

Not replying to you, Charles, just to the thread in general...

From the United States Strategic Bombing Survey (USSBS) conducted after the war:

quote:

ELIMINATION OF JAPANESE CONVENTIONAL AIR POWER
Japanese production of aircraft of all types rose from an average of 642 planes per month during the first 9 months of the war to a peak of 2,572 planes per month in September 1944. The rise was particularly great during 1943, after the Japanese had learned the lessons of the 1942 campaigns. Aggregate production during the war was 65,300 planes.

Japanese army and navy plane losses from all causes, both combat and noncombat, rose from an average rate of some 500 planes per month in the early months of the war to over 2,000 per month in the latter months of 1944. Aggregate losses during the course of the war were of the order of magnitude of 50,000 planes, of which something less than 40 percent were combat losses, and something over 60 percent were training, ferrying, and other noncombat losses.

The Japanese were thus able to increase the numerical strength of their air forces in planes, in almost every month of the war. Numerical strength increased from 2,625 tactical planes at the outbreak of the war to 5,000 tactical planes, plus 5,400 Kamikaze planes, at the time of surrender.

Aggregate flying personnel increased from approximately 12,000 at the outbreak of the war to over 35,000 at the time of surrender.

United States aircraft production and pilot training exceeded the Japanese totals by wide margins, but only a portion of this strength could be deployed to the Pacific. United States first line strength in the Pacific west of Pearl Harbor increased from some 200 planes in 1941 to 11,000 planes in August 1945. It was not until late 1943 that we attained numerical superiority over the Japanese air forces in the field. Even in 1942, however, the relatively few United States air units in the Pacific were able to inflict greater losses than they sustained on the numerically superior Japanese. Aggregate United States plane losses during the course of the Pacific war, not including training losses in the United States, were approximately 27,000 planes. Of these losses 8,700 were on combat missions; the remainder were training, ferrying and other noncombat losses. Of the combat losses over 60 percent were to antiaircraft fire.

As previously stated, Japanese pilots at the outbreak of the war were well trained. The average Army pilot had some 500 hours before entering combat and Navy pilots 650 hours. These experienced pilots were largely expended during the bitter campaigns of the opening year and a half of the war. The Japanese paid far less attention than we did to the protection, husbanding and replacement of their trained pilots, and were seriously hampered in their training program by a growing shortage of aviation gasoline. Average flying experience fell off throughout the war, and was just over 100 hours, as contrasted to 600 hours for United States pilots, at the time of surrender. Inadequately trained pilots were no match for the skilled pilots developed by the United States.

At the time of the initial Japanese attack, Japanese fighter planes, although less sturdily built, more vulnerable and weaker in fire power than the United States fighters, had certain flight characteristics superior to those of United States fighters then available in the Pacific. The Japanese improved the quality of their planes during the war, greatly increased the power of their aircraft engines, ultimately exceeded United States fighters in fire power and had first-class aircraft in the design and experimental stage at the end of the war. They lacked, however, the widespread technical and industrial skill to match the United States in quantity production of reliable planes with increased range, performance and durability. After the initial campaigns, the United States always enjoyed superiority in the over-all performance of its planes. By American standards, the Japanese never


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fully appreciated the importance of adequate maintenance, logistic support, communications and control, and air fields and bases adequately prepared to handle large numbers of planes. As a result, they were unable to concentrate any large percentage of their air strength at any one time or place. Neither did they appear to have the ability to control large formations in the air with any degree of efficiency.

Local air control and its tactical exploitation the Japanese understood and achieved in their early offensives.

But along with all other military powers prior to the war, the Japanese had failed fully to appreciate the strategic revolution brought about by the increased capabilities of air power. The ability to achieve general and continuing control of the air was not envisaged as a requirement in their basic war strategy, as was the planned destruction of the United States Fleet. Had this basic requirement been well understood it is difficult to conceive that they would have undertaken a war of limited objectives in the first place. Once started on a strategic plan which did not provide the means to assure continuing air control, there was no way in which they could revise their strategy to reverse the growing predominance in the air of a basically stronger opponent who came to understand this requirement and whose war was being fought accordingly.

CONVERSION OF JAPANESE AIR FORCES TO KAMIKAZE FORCES
By the summer of 1944, it had become evident to the Japanese air commanders that there was no way in which they could equal the United States air arms at any point. Their losses were catastrophic, while the results which they were achieving were negligible. The one and only asset which they still possessed was the willingness of their pilots to meet certain death. Under these circumstances, they developed the Kamikaze technique. A pilot who was prepared to fly his plane directly into a ship would require but little skill to hit his target, provided he got through the intervening screen of enemy fighters and antiaircraft fire. If sufficient Japanese planes attacked simultaneously, it would be impossible to prevent a certain proportion from getting through. Even though losses would be 100 percent of the planes and pilots thus committed, results, instead of being negligible, might be sufficient to cause damage beyond that which we would be willing to endure.

From October, 1944, to the end of the Okinawa campaign, the Japanese flew 2,550 Kamikaze missions, of which 475, or 18.6 percent were effective in securing hits or damaging near misses. Warships of all types were damaged, including 12 aircraft carriers, 15 battleships, and 16 light and escort carriers. However, no ship larger than an escort carrier was sunk. Approximately 45 vessels were sunk, the bulk of which were destroyers. The Japanese were misled by their own inflated claims of heavy ships sunk, and ignored the advice of their technicians that a heavier explosive head was required to sink large ships. To the United States the losses actually sustained were serious, and caused great concern. Two thousand B-29 sorties were diverted from direct attacks on Japanese cities and industries to striking Kamikaze air fields in Kyushu. Had the Japanese been able to sustain an attack of greater power and concentration they might have been able to cause us to withdraw or to revise our strategic plans.

At the time of surrender, the Japanese had more than 9,000 planes in the home islands available for Kamikaze attack, and more than 5,000 had already been specially fitted for suicide attack to resist our planned invasion.


Note: Bold type is mine. Read into this what you will but its pretty clear that Japan had a substantial pool of aircraft available in the Home Islands at the time of surrender. This does not include any aircraft remaining in China, Malaya, the SRA or at bypassed bases.

It can be argued that many of these were trainers and not "first line" aircraft but the definition of what constitutes a "first line" aircraft is conveniently vague. Obviously a trainer aircraft or Anns and Sonias are rightfully considered non-first line aircraft but what of the others? Personally, I wouldn't consider the Zero a "first line" aircraft in 1945. hpwever, others might.

Here's the link to read all of the USSBS: USSBS

Chez





Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 12:08:27 PM)

Hi Chez:

OTOH I think Sonias and other such planes find very little difference in quality when used in the kamikaze role. The only way quality matters in a flying bomb is if it doesn't have enough range, and having the home islands invaded would certainly irradicate that concern, or if it needs to get into any form of evasive action against interceptors. Sonias being armored would actually make them better than a lot of planes such as A6M2's for a certain amount of withstanding flak when used as kamikazes.

One sidenote. I think Mike earlier thought Japan would have some large problem getting enough fuel for their planes, to which I pointed out that with an Olympic type fight that wouldn't be much of a problem given that the distance is so short, but one more thing came to mind. It may had been just some generall mish-mash I picked up , but I recall reading at one time that the kamikaze planes I was reading about, maybe not all of them, had actually had their fuel cut in half or more (not filled up) such that they would use even less fuel flying out. Since they didn't want them coming back, there was no point in giving them enough fuel to do so.




Mike Scholl -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 12:14:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22
I think I have more evidence to support my view Mike. Take those figures for exactly what they say. That's 3,800 army planes and 1645 navy planes. Add them together and you get 5445 planes, which is very close to the 5000 figure my book had for Olympic. I gave my interpretation that a failure to mention trainers for the army meant they weren't including them for some odd reason, whereas they felt comfortable doing that for the navy. My other take is that it's natural to assume that if they just forgot to mention army trainers, and if they were in fact part of that number, then it would also be more likely that you could follow the navy ratio to make a stab at that, which, though you didn't state a guess that is what I thought you were thinking. In any event you can see that if you took 445 planes as trainers from the army, a much smaller ratio than the navy planes, you would then attain the 5000 Olympic ready figure. So getting back to the alleged 4100 planes for the entire pacific (this wouldn't include China as part of the Pacific I would take it) when the planes were plummeting each interval, just how does that jibe with the higher figure for Olympic? I made a special note that the figure said front-line "combat" aircraft, so it is quite possible that they did not regard kamikaze as combat aircraft, which from Okinawa onwards would certainly be worth accounting for.


TRUTHFULLY? You have no justification or "evidence" at all...., because you still have failed to give the DATE of the figures you're quoting. You are attempting to compare "July, 1945" with "oranges". None of your "evidence" is worth "squat" until you provide that key point. "Olympic" is 8 months after "July, 1945" ("Coronet" is four months after). Who knows how many "First Line Aircraft" Japan might have had had the war not ended 7 months earlier?




Mike Scholl -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 12:22:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22

Hi Chez:

OTOH I think Sonias and other such planes find very little difference in quality when used in the kamikaze role. The only way quality matters in a flying bomb is if it doesn't have enough range, and having the home islands invaded would certainly irradicate that concern, or if it needs to get into any form of evasive action against interceptors. Sonias being armored would actually make them better than a lot of planes such as A6M2's for a certain amount of withstanding flak when used as kamikazes.

But by 1945, they wouldn't qualify as "First Line Aircraft" any more than a Stuka would.

One sidenote. I think Mike earlier thought Japan would have some large problem getting enough fuel for their planes, to which I pointed out that with an Olympic type fight that wouldn't be much of a problem given that the distance is so short, but one more thing came to mind. It may had been just some generall mish-mash I picked up , but I recall reading at one time that the kamikaze planes I was reading about, maybe not all of them, had actually had their fuel cut in half or more (not filled up) such that they would use even less fuel flying out. Since they didn't want them coming back, there was no point in giving them enough fuel to do so.

No...., what I said was that the poor schmucks stucking flying these missions had virtually no fuel to TRAIN with, and might be making their first flight, let alone combat flight. And that the "militarists" who had led Japan "down the garden path" to War were a bunch of gutless scoundrels and craven moral cowards who would rather see everybody dead than stand up and take responsibility for their own stupidity.





Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 2:17:07 PM)

Mike:
quote:

But by 1945, they wouldn't qualify as "First Line Aircraft" any more than a Stuka would.

Uh, yeah, sort of, but then recall that not every nation's front line aircraft included a kamikaze role. If you're using a Sonia conventionally at that point of the war you are correct, and I can't say they were not, but if you're using them in a role where it don't matter very much (such as a Stuka in an area of air superiority) and clearly the kamikaze role was a front line role, then they at least qualify in a vague way as they are quite the capable plane in that limited situation.

I'll clarify more stringently. They're front line for the limited theatre of an island defense, whereas in the conventional role they are not. Now I was goign to make the argument that clearly there are "better" planes, even DB's alone for the job, but no, that is reverse thinking as I think of it, becuase in the role they should be assigned to, kamikaze, they are the better plane to use, becuase the plane won't return. Kamikaze has the rather strange distinction of making the inferior plane the desired one, because you would rather save the better designs for the conventional uses.

quote:

No...., what I said was that the poor schmucks stucking flying these missions had virtually no fuel to TRAIN with, and might be making their first flight, let alone combat flight. And that the "militarists" who had led Japan "down the garden path" to War were a bunch of gutless scoundrels and craven moral cowards who would rather see everybody dead than stand up and take responsibility for their own stupidity.

Oh yeah, they did neglect some training to save for combat, but in the matter of stopping an Olympic the lack of fuel, even for training wasn't all that important any more, because I don't see their situation getting that much brighter even if they got a free fuel for the home islands for a month. The kamikazes already proved what they were capable of in Okinawa and i doubt their training was all that much better than the Olympic pilots would have had. The kamikazes, as I see it, are somethign of a direct result of not having enough fuel for sufficient training. IOW, when a good number of your planes are suited for that role and that role was done to inflict maximum damage for minimum fuel expended, only total lack of fuel would make that any different.




Monter_Trismegistos -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 2:21:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl
quote:

ORIGINAL: Monter_Trismegistos
Z.Flisowski "Burza nad Pacyfikiem"

Aircraft ready to counter Home Islands invasion:
Army: 800 fighters, 3000 ready for kamikaze
Navy: 5145 planes (2500 of it were trainers).


When? What is the date for the figures? Though in fact, if half of the Navy's were trainers, there's probably good reason to suspect that a considerable number of the Army's were as well..., which would make that figure of 4100 First Line Aircraft sound pretty accurate.

Apparently no specific date is given. I assume from context it is right after main fights on Okinawa ended.




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 2:38:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22
I think I have more evidence to support my view Mike. Take those figures for exactly what they say. That's 3,800 army planes and 1645 navy planes. Add them together and you get 5445 planes, which is very close to the 5000 figure my book had for Olympic. I gave my interpretation that a failure to mention trainers for the army meant they weren't including them for some odd reason, whereas they felt comfortable doing that for the navy. My other take is that it's natural to assume that if they just forgot to mention army trainers, and if they were in fact part of that number, then it would also be more likely that you could follow the navy ratio to make a stab at that, which, though you didn't state a guess that is what I thought you were thinking. In any event you can see that if you took 445 planes as trainers from the army, a much smaller ratio than the navy planes, you would then attain the 5000 Olympic ready figure. So getting back to the alleged 4100 planes for the entire pacific (this wouldn't include China as part of the Pacific I would take it) when the planes were plummeting each interval, just how does that jibe with the higher figure for Olympic? I made a special note that the figure said front-line "combat" aircraft, so it is quite possible that they did not regard kamikaze as combat aircraft, which from Okinawa onwards would certainly be worth accounting for.



TRUTHFULLY? You have no justification or "evidence" at all...., because you still have failed to give the DATE of the figures you're quoting. You are attempting to compare "July, 1945" with "oranges". None of your "evidence" is worth "squat" until you provide that key point. "Olympic" is 8 months after "July, 1945" ("Coronet" is four months after). Who knows how many "First Line Aircraft" Japan might have had had the war not ended 7 months earlier?



Well, I'm sorry if you can't spot trends. It's clearly apparent to me. Besides, if that information is all so reliable, the 4100 planes I mean, and all that acceptable, then how would apparently a few other sources put Olympic at HIGHER plane rates, hmmm? You see the trend just like me and if it's universally accurate then the numbers should be down not up, correct? So, did the Olympic predictors foolishly decide that the allies would stop bombing IJ and that's how the figures take a dramatic reversal? Some bozo claiming that planes for 7/45 doesn't prove anything to me either Mike, and I have more than one source to back the Olympic supposed figures. Like I said, Olympic should be down not up. Refuse to see it if you insist. Give IJ another year of the minimum of naval blockade with strategic bombing, and the figure jumps to 10,000-15,000 by then? Nope, if that chart is right they should be pretty close to wiped out in that time (one year beyond Olympic).

When I get home I will give the source and any other variables the book provides that stick out to me about aircraft at Olympic, but I should think the earlier additons to this thread would have been enough for you, as, apparently, that's another trend. I'm pretty sure the suthor of the article wasn't Japanaese too, if you want to make that sort of comment.




Mike Scholl -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 3:37:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22

Mike:
quote:

But by 1945, they wouldn't qualify as "First Line Aircraft" any more than a Stuka would.

Uh, yeah, sort of, but then recall that not every nation's front line aircraft included a kamikaze role. If you're using a Sonia conventionally at that point of the war you are correct, and I can't say they were not, but if you're using them in a role where it don't matter very much (such as a Stuka in an area of air superiority) and clearly the kamikaze role was a front line role, then they at least qualify in a vague way as they are quite the capable plane in that limited situation.


Doesn't make a bit of difference. The term "First Line Aircraft" as it was used in Nic's figures has a specific meaning. Those fit for front line service during that particular period of the conflict. The latest models with the most current improvements. In this case, the George's, Frank's, Tony II's, Peggy's, Frances's, Jill's and such. Oscar's, Betty's, Nell's, most Zeke models, Val's, Kates, and the like were still around, but were no longer considered "first line A/C" Didn't mean they couldn't be of use..., just that they were "dog meat" for the other side's "first line A/C". And these "second line" (and sometimes "3rd line") aircraft were the ones primarily used for Kamikaze Service. They were more "expendible, and also generally easier to fly than the newest A/C. Not an inconsiderable factor given the "skill" of most of their pilots. But when Nic's table cites "First Line Aircraft", they aren't included - because they aren't "1st Line". You've trying to compare apples and applesauce. So the "points" you are making make no sense.




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 4:46:04 PM)

Okey dokey here's the info I've been promising, however my figures were grossly off, and therfore, if true, makes the 4100 IJ plane total look even more absurd, and given this projected Olympic for NOVEMBER 1, 1945 with Coronet following on MARCH 1, 1946 this gap is widened even more.

Firstly the book is Excerpts of the History of the Second World War. I take this to be a military history magazine that the compiled together into one hardback book. I mention that because it appears not all articles were written by the author of the information in question, which is called "Planning the Last Invasion".

Pg. 2551 had the chart for the numbers of the possible invasion. Nowhere is the quality of the planes and such discussed. The article goes more into the plans and less into specifics of the weapons involved. The chart does show something of parity in numbers between the two sides aerial forces, but in numbers the Japanese have more numbers a significant edge from that standpoint, though with so many being kamikaze it certainly means the allies wouldn't have much aerial opposition for too terribly long, not that IJ planned to do that anyway. The figures are 9,000 allied planes versus 10,700 IJ planes. It shows precisely half of the planes as kamikaze and doesn't get into splitting them between the branches of service, so naturally they didn't specify trainer amounts either.

So there you have it. That other report claimed 4100 IJ planes for 7/45. Apparently by 11/45 they dig up over 6,600 more.

The article was written by K. Jack Bauer who received his BA from Harvard in 1948 and his MA and PhD from Indiana University in 1949 and 1953 respectively. He later served with both the Marine Corps and Navy Historical Sections in Washington, DC, and was assistant to Sam Elliot Morison for the concluding volume of History of the United States Naval Operations in World War II. The author of many articles on naval and maritime subjects in American and foreign journals, he is currently Associate Professor of History at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.




Mike Scholl -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 5:11:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22

Okey dokey here's the info I've been promising, however my figures were grossly off, and therfore, if true, makes the 4100 IJ plane total look even more absurd, and given this projected Olympic for NOVEMBER 1, 1945 with Coronet following on MARCH 1, 1946 this gap is widened even more.

Firstly the book is Excerpts of the History of the Second World War. I take this to be a military history magazine that the compiled together into one hardback book. I mention that because it appears not all articles were written by the author of the information in question, which is called "Planning the Last Invasion".

Pg. 2551 had the chart for the numbers of the possible invasion. Nowhere is the quality of the planes and such discussed. The article goes more into the plans and less into specifics of the weapons involved. The chart does show something of parity in numbers between the two sides aerial forces, but in numbers the Japanese have more numbers a significant edge from that standpoint, though with so many being kamikaze it certainly means the allies wouldn't have much aerial opposition for too terribly long, not that IJ planned to do that anyway. The figures are 9,000 allied planes versus 10,700 IJ planes. It shows precisely half of the planes as kamikaze and doesn't get into splitting them between the branches of service, so naturally they didn't specify trainer amounts either.

So there you have it. That other report claimed 4100 IJ planes for 7/45. Apparently by 11/45 they dig up over 6,600 more. NO,,,. it didn't. It said the Japanese had 4100 FIRST LINE A/C in July of 1945! You're numbers are tossing in 2nd and 3rd line A/C as well. You aren't talking about the same things!

The article was written by K. Jack Bauer who received his BA from Harvard in 1948 and his MA and PhD from Indiana University in 1949 and 1953 respectively. He later served with both the Marine Corps and Navy Historical Sections in Washington, DC, and was assistant to Sam Elliot Morison for the concluding volume of History of the United States Naval Operations in World War II. The author of many articles on naval and maritime subjects in American and foreign journals, he is currently Associate Professor of History at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.





Big B -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/18/2006 7:00:13 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jolly_pillager

I think people might be missing another point as well...

The U.S. sent as many aircraft to the Pacific as they felt were needed (at least after, say, '43). To say that they only had 45% of their airforce in theater and that this is all they should get regardless of Japanese actions is silly.

If the Japanese had increased fighter production to the point where (as an example) they were forcing the Hellcat pools to run dry from attrition, then more Hellcats would have been made available. Period.

Any game that remotely allows the Japanese Empire to outproduce the U.S. in airframes...or even seriously compete with it in late 43 onwards is simply wrong.

This being said, I think that this is hiding a much larger problem...bombing bases unopposed to gain astronomical experience ratings far too quickly.

If a barely trained rookie has a 30 experience and a trained (that is to say proficient) pilot has a 55, then it should take 3 months to get from one to the other (which is, coincidentalt, as much as it takes on the 'training' mission...which was researched for accuracy in this regard).

Using ground attack missions to get the same results in a fraction of the time is a game exploit. It doesn't matter how many people do it...it doesn't matter if it MUST happen to keep the game going, it is an intentional abuse of the game rules to achieve a result not intended by the design (which clearly assumes training will advance at a historical rate...why else put in the training mission?).

The upshot of this exploit is to create unrealistically heavy attrition which leads to much greater stress on airframe manufacturing then was historical...which favors the side that can customize it's production, naturally.

The point is that there are many variables at work here interacting with each other, and the only good way out is to push for maximum historical accuracy at every turn for OOB and production abilities and then tweak the results generator to get historical loss ratios. Model history well and you will get historical outcomes.

Agree, and - just to pour a little gasoline on the flames -

Jim Burns's figures may be Overstated' for US Production. IIRC the manual states that aircraft production will Stop once 600 units are in the pool...which would mean that most of those obsolete aircraft won't be produced the entire war - which also means that -as I read it - Jim's totals for US production are higher than you will actually get in the game...

B




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/19/2006 9:55:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22

Mike:
quote:

But by 1945, they wouldn't qualify as "First Line Aircraft" any more than a Stuka would.

Uh, yeah, sort of, but then recall that not every nation's front line aircraft included a kamikaze role. If you're using a Sonia conventionally at that point of the war you are correct, and I can't say they were not, but if you're using them in a role where it don't matter very much (such as a Stuka in an area of air superiority) and clearly the kamikaze role was a front line role, then they at least qualify in a vague way as they are quite the capable plane in that limited situation.


Doesn't make a bit of difference. The term "First Line Aircraft" as it was used in Nic's figures has a specific meaning. Those fit for front line service during that particular period of the conflict. The latest models with the most current improvements. In this case, the George's, Frank's, Tony II's, Peggy's, Frances's, Jill's and such. Oscar's, Betty's, Nell's, most Zeke models, Val's, Kates, and the like were still around, but were no longer considered "first line A/C" Didn't mean they couldn't be of use..., just that they were "dog meat" for the other side's "first line A/C". And these "second line" (and sometimes "3rd line") aircraft were the ones primarily used for Kamikaze Service. They were more "expendible, and also generally easier to fly than the newest A/C. Not an inconsiderable factor given the "skill" of most of their pilots. But when Nic's table cites "First Line Aircraft", they aren't included - because they aren't "1st Line". You've trying to compare apples and applesauce. So the "points" you are making make no sense.



If they didn't make any sense then you wouldn't have broke them down so well. I was trying to emphasize the point, that while Japan may had more true second-line planes as first-line (in the case of the kamikaze) when you are using a set of planes in a way nobody else does, which the true first-line planes are of little more value doing the same thing, it does make the line between first and second-line, or even third a little more blurred. True, a second-line kamikaze going against a first-line allied plane was fairly dog meat, but then most planes bombed up are anyway and I doubt there were many interested in aborting any attached bombload even if they were being attacked by fighters.




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/19/2006 10:18:02 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22

Okey dokey here's the info I've been promising, however my figures were grossly off, and therfore, if true, makes the 4100 IJ plane total look even more absurd, and given this projected Olympic for NOVEMBER 1, 1945 with Coronet following on MARCH 1, 1946 this gap is widened even more.

Firstly the book is Excerpts of the History of the Second World War. I take this to be a military history magazine that the compiled together into one hardback book. I mention that because it appears not all articles were written by the author of the information in question, which is called "Planning the Last Invasion".

Pg. 2551 had the chart for the numbers of the possible invasion. Nowhere is the quality of the planes and such discussed. The article goes more into the plans and less into specifics of the weapons involved. The chart does show something of parity in numbers between the two sides aerial forces, but in numbers the Japanese have more numbers a significant edge from that standpoint, though with so many being kamikaze it certainly means the allies wouldn't have much aerial opposition for too terribly long, not that IJ planned to do that anyway. The figures are 9,000 allied planes versus 10,700 IJ planes. It shows precisely half of the planes as kamikaze and doesn't get into splitting them between the branches of service, so naturally they didn't specify trainer amounts either.

So there you have it. That other report claimed 4100 IJ planes for 7/45. Apparently by 11/45 they dig up over 6,600 more. NO,,,. it didn't. It said the Japanese had 4100 FIRST LINE A/C in July of 1945! You're numbers are tossing in 2nd and 3rd line A/C as well. You aren't talking about the same things!

The article was written by K. Jack Bauer who received his BA from Harvard in 1948 and his MA and PhD from Indiana University in 1949 and 1953 respectively. He later served with both the Marine Corps and Navy Historical Sections in Washington, DC, and was assistant to Sam Elliot Morison for the concluding volume of History of the United States Naval Operations in World War II. The author of many articles on naval and maritime subjects in American and foreign journals, he is currently Associate Professor of History at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, New York.




Apparently if I say that they were likely putting some amount of trainers into that figure, and I did, that would include the idea that they weren't all front-line, but then I also made the distinction, which you apparently disagree with, that having a role for the inferior planes that the allies did not have, puts them in something of a different class (of course the author of the 4100 figure doesn't share that view). IOW, though many are planes you wouldn't use for regular combat anymore, these ARE part of regular IJ combat from that point on. Planes which are in such a role far more dangerous to the allies than that same plane was a few years before. The only problem of course is that the allies have a lot more targets for those planes to hit, with better protection all around. Planes which in a conflict with allied a/c are in trouble, not only because of their general inferior nature to allied front-liners but also because they are fully bomb-laden plus (to say nothing of the pilots themselves). And yet at Okinawa they did damage exceeding something you would expect from first-line aircraft in anything but a kamikaze role. I guess you could say that I see a second-line aircraft which can exceed conventional results as therefore being first-line for that role, though doubtlessly true first-line a/c 'could' do better (your point that the more advanced a/c would probably be trouble for the inexperinced pilots anyway carries well here). I guess that's the seemingly backwards way of the kamikaze, where actually weakness is strength.

Really weird, but though I used to regard kamikazes as a waste myself, I now regard them as a very smart move considering IJ's position at the time. You just can't fight with conventional tactics when you are trounced in the conventional. Now if only the kamiakze worked in the game. What little I've seen of these gamewise attacks looks extremely poor.




Mike Scholl -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/19/2006 1:58:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Charles_22
If they didn't make any sense then you wouldn't have broke them down so well. I was trying to emphasize the point, that while Japan may had more true second-line planes as first-line (in the case of the kamikaze) when you are using a set of planes in a way nobody else does, which the true first-line planes are of little more value doing the same thing, it does make the line between first and second-line, or even third a little more blurred. True, a second-line kamikaze going against a first-line allied plane was fairly dog meat, but then most planes bombed up are anyway and I doubt there were many interested in aborting any attached bombload even if they were being attacked by fighters.



AS ALWAYS..., you're missing the point. The initial figures cited were for Japanese "First Line Aircraft" in July of 1945. You jumped all over them as "incorrect" by quoting figures for "All Japanese Aircraft" at some date you've never specified. When I pointed out your arguement was specious, and your data uncomparable, you went off on half a dozen tangents instead of reccognizing your problem. NOTHING you have said in any way even casts a doubt on the original figure of "4100 First Line Aircraft in July of 1945" You are simply wasting space and time until you can come up with comparable data. Either the Total Japanese Airstrength in July of 1945, or the Total First Line Airstrength at whatever time you are refering to. As I said, until then your arguements "make no sense".




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/19/2006 3:02:40 PM)

I can always expect the real deal from you[8|].




ctangus -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/19/2006 5:30:05 PM)

I used the chart Nicholas provided to do some analysis. First I looked at a specific type during a specific period. Namely fighters in 1941 & 1942. I know that's where I experience the largest shortages in game.

I added up all real life 41-42 fighter deliveries to the WitP map. The chart includes an "Other Overseas" category. I suspect this is areas like Iceland and the Panama Canal Zone (in other words not on the WITP map), but I did include those numbers to provide a hypothetical total.

I then added up what an allied player gets in Stock Scenario 15. I didn't include early models (P-36 and earlier), but only the 5 most used US army fighters.



[image]local://upfiles/18431/A78A32DE79A94350A00C3A77CA7A3D3A.jpg[/image]

Perhaps WITP has some errors in type (I know I'd like more P-40Es [:)]).




ctangus -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/19/2006 5:37:14 PM)

I also looked at overall figures. 24,945 USAAF planes were delivered to the WITP map.

The same website provides a chart of total factory deliveries of military airplanes as well, broken down by type and recipient: Link

Using that I calculated that roughly 20% of USAAF factory deliveries made it to the WitP map. Also of interest (to me at least) is that only 62.56% of army planes made it overseas at all.



[image]local://upfiles/18431/AE4EF3B650CA477B83D2B931F5AF582F.jpg[/image]

I took the trainers out of the calculation since they're not included either in WitP or the first chart.




ctangus -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/19/2006 5:47:37 PM)

The second chart also provides figures for factory deliveries to the Navy. Using that I (roughly) calculated how many planes went to the WitP map.

I did make one assumption that may prove incorrect. I assumed that the Navy got planes overseas at the same rate the Army did (62.56%). I'm not sure what the force allocation ratios were between the Atlantic & Pacific, so I calculated at 52.94% (from earlier in this thread), 67% and 80%.

This gives a range of 19000-29000 USN planes delivered to the theater.

It also gives a range of 44000-54000 total US planes delivered to theater.



[image]local://upfiles/18431/528991DB38D842AEA0591FC00133E216.jpg[/image]

I'd also like to note the variance is in Navy planes. Other than Andy Mac in the PzB game (an outlier as Andy says), I've never heard of an allied player having trouble with USN or Marine pools.

Jim calculated earlier in this thread 49405 US planes provided by WitP based on 8 months effective use. (I'd argue a longer time period should be used, but *shrug*). Seems to me allied production is fairly accurate, maybe even slightly overstated.




Charles2222 -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/20/2006 1:41:56 AM)

While it sounds good to have both sides production to depend on what they possess, it is easier to program just one side in that way. But if you chose just one side to do that way, it makes more sense to pick IJ. We know the historic result and that was landslide enough, though it took VERY long, that you can see how the allied production need not be dependant on how much land she grabs/keeps. IJ, OTOH, had quite a lot to gain by grabbing more, keeping more, and fighting better, which as anyone knows would affect your production capabilities. Sure, the Allies gain just as much as IJ from holding the same piece of land, the key here though is that with the way the war was structured IJ had all it's main success at the opening months, such that to give the allies the fair shake just makes the game even more lopsided than the historic war was, which is reason enough for a lot of people to not even have much interest in the PTO. The PTO, in my view, is one of the few theatres where if you're going to model production it makes a little more sense, gamewise, to model only the loser; unfair it technically may be. We've all seen how likely IJ players are to bail when the going gets tough or they think there's no way to achieve but less than draws in battle from that point forward.

The Russian front, for example, is a theatre that would be quite unfair to model the production for just one side (WIR did both sides), pretty much for the same reasons as I see it, because the success of the germans wasn't confined to just the first year and they had a much greater chance of achieving whatever the goal may have turned out to be (peace after Stalingrad or whatever) in the game than IJ had in the PTO. To further that view, we have seen lots of discussions on how the germans might had been able to achieve anything but total defeat there (or even outright victory) but nobody talks about how IJ could have won. For IJ it only boils down to whether they could inflict enough casualties to tire the USA of the war in some form. I still think it was a distinct possibility given the attitude about war that a lot of americans have, but unlike Vietnam and practically every war since, WWII didn't have a bunch of leftists to stir things up. We may had had more people wanting to nuke all of Japan as opposed letting them get off, but even then casualties over a million is nothing to sneeze at for what has been a very casualty sensitive country.




spence -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/24/2006 6:04:41 AM)

The P-36A was engaged in combat on Dec 7th but very quickly relegated to training squadrons and courier duties following that date. It seems that IRL the P-36A and all US variants were replaced in ALL fighter squadrons by P-40s (of one type or another) or P-39s by March of 42.

In WitP the Allied player is stuck with them long after that date. Replacing them with
P-39s doesn't even seem to be an option at all and P-40 production can't begin to meet the need.




mogami -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/24/2006 2:23:48 PM)

Hi, OK for about the 1000th time.  REMOVE ALL THE RD FACTORIES AT START AND SET THEM TO SIZE 0!!!!!! Now the Japanese player will not reach production numbers anywhere near those posted.  I wonder when I first mentioned human players should keep their furry dog like paws off the RD factories.  (EARLY 2003!!!)
I am in late 1943 and my monthly production is less then half what everyone is worried about. (and it is more then enough)

well I looked and my production is less then 1/3 of the feared Japanese production. 1650 per month when all factories are producing (most of them are turned off because i don't need more in pool)

At start there are over 600 RD factories. When player changes them they are reduced a bit but still he can convert to over 500 extra ac per month early in war. To get this same 500 extra ac per month if you set them to 0 at start would cost 500,000 supply + the cost to repair them into actual production. Japan has 2,000,000 supply at start. Also it takes quite a bit longer to start at 0 and build to 100 actual produing factories. (compared to just converting a size 100 RD factory and repairing 1 per day.





Nikademus -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/24/2006 3:54:52 PM)

I reduced RD by 90% in the 'a' version of my latest release. Be interesting to see what numbers of more advanced aircraft it produces under human guidance.




mogami -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/24/2006 4:41:22 PM)

Hi, You don't have to be a wiz to understand that if you remove 600,000+ supply points worth of factories Japanese out put will be reduced.  RD is free because the AI does not know how to do production.  Start a game AI versus AI, run it for 3 years, stop it and check Japanese production. The factories that were size 0 on dec 7 1941 will be size 0 in 1944. The only way the AI will increase aircraft production and build newer models is by having the "RD" factories.  A human is fine if he leaves production alone or if he sets them to 0 and then builds to his hearts content.  I don't understand why this is so difficult to understand. when the very first group stated they were working on a mod I said "make sure you get rid of RD factories"  we even talked about doing all the scenarios for human versus human only and I said "make sure you get rid of all the RD factories" 

2 years later I'm still reading "Japanese are over producing aircraft? why? fix Allied production to counter this" If you fix Japanese production the Allied production is fine.  (it's more then 3x what Japan can build) Japan does not have the supply to build that free 600,000 points worth of factories.  RD factories increase Japanese production by 33 percent at no cost. This free the supply to convert the normal smaller wrong type aircraft factories and expand them. The result is Japan more then doubles it's output in the first year.  And with the savings they increase engine production. (if you make them spend supply on aircraft factories they won't have it for engine expansion and without engines they can't expand aircraft and so on.




Nikademus -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/24/2006 4:48:58 PM)

quote:


human is fine if he leaves production alone or if he sets them to 0 and then builds to his hearts content. I don't understand why this is so difficult to understand.


Don't know....maybe because alot of complainers havn't played Japan. As previously mentioned, I left production alone in a recent PBEM and still managed to shut down my economy. The model is tighter than many would think. Gotta keep those imports coming. I pay more attention now despite my dislike of economics. (i prefer to command the things that make things go BOOM)




mogami -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/24/2006 5:05:48 PM)

Hi, LOL I spend all my time trying to figure out where to build things and how to move things. I only fight when something is preventing me from building or moving or something is trying to stop my movement or break what I've built.

quite a few Japanese are always looking far away and I am looking for the shortest route.




Mike Scholl -> RE: Allied aircraft production figures (8/24/2006 5:22:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mogami

Hi, OK for about the 1000th time.  REMOVE ALL THE RD FACTORIES AT START AND SET THEM TO SIZE 0!!!!!! Now the Japanese player will not reach production numbers anywhere near those posted.  I wonder when I first mentioned human players should keep their furry dog like paws off the RD factories.  (EARLY 2003!!!)
I am in late 1943 and my monthly production is less then half what everyone is worried about. (and it is more then enough)


You are undoubtedly correct...., but good luck getting players to go along. Far too many of them are into "massaging the system" to produce impossible results. But one of these days I want to play a game against you. Because you are one of the few potential opponants on the forumn I would feel playing my basically "historical" style of game against.




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