RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (Full Version)

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tucson3217 -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (5/5/2007 8:04:34 PM)

Excuse me if it has been said, I did only a quick scan through the posts...
butthe term or theory the original poster might be thinking of is/are 'kondratieff Waves'

if that is not what you are thinking of, it is stillk something similar based on the theory of repeating behaviour patterns in humans using 'long wave analysis'.
I hink the theory is in part based on the idea that the current generation is warned by their parents and sees the proiblems their parents had and thus we as individuals and a a society through specific laws and stop gaps end up preparing for the last boogey man.  This bit of cognative dissonance has many if not most people and institutions dismissing the fears and problems of our grandfathers (often with such phrases that we are somehow 'better' or 'different' now than in the 'old' days.  Those old days people were cute and simple, we have it all worked out however, don't worry your pretty little head grandma, we have it all under control now, we are so very advanced). 

In this way a 'perfect' storm brews in which society prepares for the last disaster, thus ignoring and almost ensuring the mistakes/errors of two geneartions past are those which will come into being.  It is predictive in that not only do we not prepare, but despite warning signs that might signal the brewing of an older danger we have not prepared for or considered. In this way the events of generations past become the more likely outcome, and there in lies some of the basis of contrary investing and forcasting.

An example of society dismissing events they consider 'too old' to worry about can be found in the often heard and accepted phrase used in the media to dismiss 'bad news'.  The phrase starts out something like this "housing will not go down much in price if history is any guide. Smart investors know the trends and history of the housing market and point out that NEVER IN THE POST WAR ERA has housing declined over 10% nationwide, peak to trough"

And with one simple sentance the entire great depression is dismissed and not accounted for...after all, that was like forever ago, nothing from back then is relevant.. it has nothing to do with our economy today, the modern economy is better suited to withstand stress.  It is different than back then, I mean we have the federal reserve making sure the 'free market' works the way a 'free market' is supposed to!  Namley that big banks and big money are 'too big to fail' and that no matter how risky or how far they push the envelope it is better if the middle class and poor pick up the tab for risky loans and ventures.  And before you ask, no yo can't have any of the profit they made of of same riskyloans/ventures-afterall they risked your hard earned money for it, and CEOS have to eat too ya know?'

ummmm, yeah.  sorry for the rant. little off topic.  anyway, the every other generational thing is somewhat interesting to me.  Not sure how accurate it really is, but heir is some logic to some of the ideaas behind it.  It i at least useful in some broad measure, if not a more specific one.  Keep in mind as well that the variance will tend to change and the spacing (measured in years) between 'major events' will tend to become longer since some of the theory of what and how humans precieve future risk is based on our lifespans, and more importantly our 'working years lifespan', which may be twice as long now due to healthcare, lack of physical work and the ability to remain quite productive simply sitting at a keyboard and computer screen.  The idea that the wave lengths should become longer inbetween marked events is based in most part due to these so called 'productive years'- these will be the years in which one most likely has the greatest influence on society and our general mass consiousness and futre directions)

here is a link:  http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/

(have not read the link, can't vouch if it is anygood or not.  but it is a start.  be advised that there is a lot of missunderstanding and bull surrounded around this type of theory...bullcrap comeing from botgh sides of the debat-the over zelous and somtimes wildly assuming believers and their bewilldered or downright incredulous opponents.so take from it what you will... :)




CSO_Talorgan -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (12/27/2009 12:58:06 PM)

The answer to the original question BTW is "hegemonic stability theory":

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory




rickier65 -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (12/27/2009 5:52:09 PM)

Not sure if these are what youre referring to but also found these references.

Dewey, E.R. (1951) "The 57-year cycle in international conflict". Cycles 2, 1, 4-6.
Dewey, E.R. (1952) "The 142-year cycle in war". Cycles 3, 6, 201-204.
Dewey, E.R. (1967) "Systematic Reconnaissance of Cycles in War". Cycles, January 1967. (Request reprint).

RIck




CSO_Talorgan -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (12/28/2009 11:19:49 PM)

I'll look them up, thanks.




CSO_Talorgan -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (1/4/2010 8:32:04 PM)

This diagram says it all:

[image]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/32/War_West.png[/image]




wilecki -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (1/4/2010 9:03:24 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: CSO_Talorgan

This diagram says it all:

[image]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/32/War_West.png[/image]


There is more on this subject presented by Graham Chapman around 0:15 here

Couldn't resist, sorry :)

Could you explain what exactly is presented in the graph?




Karri -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (1/4/2010 9:23:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rune Iversen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ursa MAior

Verify it.



Hungary could have stayed neutral Like Yugoslavia did or been of the same sceptical bent as the Bulgarians were (ie. support the axis effort diplomatically but donīt commit any troops). Instead the hungarian fascists, eager for revenge after WW1 and with dreams of a "greater Hungary" gleaming in their eyes threw in their lot with Adolf and got their just desserts, since Adolf promised the greater return. Nobody forced the hungarians to throw in their lot fully with uncle Adolf.All that it would have taken for this to be different was for someone with half a brain to run the hungarian strategy. Not much could have prevented Hungary from falling within the communist sphere after the war though, even if Hungary had remained neutral, but one could at least have hoped for better terms and a greater degree of independence (like Yugoslavia got for instance)


Well, naturally they had a lot of choices to make. However, I do think the "no choice but" refers rather to the fact that it was the only sensible choice. You know, kinda like "eat cake or die".




Halsey -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (1/5/2010 1:46:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CSO_Talorgan

Can anyone remember the name of the theory about humanity convulsing itself in war every 110 - 150 years? The other elements of the theory were that there was a predominant economic power between each of the cycles as a change of predominant economic power could only come about as a result of a war. I think too the succeeding major economic power was always to the west of the last predominant economic power.



This theory went out the window with the advent of WMD's.

The standard theory is now based on MAD.
With it being on the top end of the scale.

There are different thresholds of conflict, leading up to MAD.
Check into any political science theory to see what current model/level is being assessed.
Every conflict is different.




CSO_Talorgan -> RE: War cycle every 110 - 150 years (1/8/2010 8:07:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: wilecki

Could you explain what exactly is presented in the graph?


I'd guess dead bodies measured against time.

Good vid BTW.




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