RE: Allies Offer Armistice (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Allies Offer Armistice (7/15/2008 2:00:03 PM)

We're not done yet.  John is still mulling over the offer.  I'm still half-afraid he'll accept it.  If he doesn't, we will proceed and I'm actually very anxious to see if I can get my carriers up and running again (I think I can!).  If he does, I'll announce it here.



Yakface -> RE: Allies Offer Armistice (7/15/2008 4:09:09 PM)

You two should be shot as deserters.....you can't call this one a draw not from where you are now.



Canoerebel -> RE: Allies Offer Armistice (7/15/2008 4:15:07 PM)

John hasn't given me his decision about the armistice offer yet.  He may well decline it.  I really hope he does.  Neither of us wishes to halt the game from a gaming standpoint.

My desire is motivated by the extraordinary amount of time and attention the game takes.  It's affecting every aspect of my life because I enjoy it so much. 

So, you say, how about playing in moderation?  Well, I apparently have no self-control when it comes to this game. 

I expect to hear from John soon.  Truly, I hope he decides to reject the offer.



Q-Ball -> RE: Allies Offer Armistice (7/15/2008 4:30:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John hasn't given me his decision about the armistice offer yet.  He may well decline it.  I really hope he does.  Neither of us wishes to halt the game from a gaming standpoint.

My desire is motivated by the extraordinary amount of time and attention the game takes.  It's affecting every aspect of my life because I enjoy it so much. 


I have really enjoyed this AAR, hope it continues. I think this format is one others should copy, (with Dan's permission), high-level, concise, cuts out all the Combat.TXT files where you lose the big picture.

You are right about WITP. Family, Work, Health, then WITP, sometimes hard to keep priorities straight.

Maybe you should join WITPA. "Hello, my name is Dan, and I haven't sent a turn in 2 months" Clap Clap Clap.



Canoerebel -> Resumption of Hostilities Imminent? (7/15/2008 8:02:34 PM)

It appears that the obstinate Japanese are prepared to decline the Allied armistice offer.  I'm still awaiting transmission of the final communication to that effect, but unless I'm misreading signs, this war shall continue.

John and I are discussing playing at a more moderate pace.  The only trouble with that is that I don't have any self-control when it comes to WitP.  However, since my game with Miller ended yesterday, that ought to help with time-management a bit.

I am very glad John declined the armistice offer.  I really want to see what happens from here on out.  I'll give you the final word as soon as John sends it to me.



USSAmerica -> RE: Resumption of Hostilities Imminent? (7/15/2008 8:34:40 PM)

"Once more into the breach!"  [:D]

I, and many others, will be thrilled to see the show go on, Dan.  I'm having trouble keeping up with reading the AAR's, so I can only imagine how much time, effort, and stress go into actually playing it!  [:D]



dpstafford -> RE: Resumption of Hostilities Imminent? (7/15/2008 8:45:06 PM)

Finish him!!



FeurerKrieg -> RE: Resumption of Hostilities Imminent? (7/15/2008 8:54:12 PM)

Fatality!



cantona2 -> RE: Resumption of Hostilities Imminent? (7/15/2008 8:57:48 PM)

pro patria [:D]



Canoerebel -> When Hostilities Resume (7/15/2008 11:16:28 PM)

Here are some thoughts as to what I need to do:

1)  Replenish aircraft on carriers.
2)  Get supplies and base force personnel to Toyahara, a level 6 airfield. 
3)  These first two objectives should give the Allies an opportunity to strike the Japs hard around Hokkaido.
4)  Determine if my troops can stand at Sapporo (or possibly Wakkanai) on Hokkaido and do whatever I can to maximize the defenses.
5)  Begin arranging for supply and fuel convoys to head toward Shikaku; and for damaged ships and emtpy AKs to head back home from there.
6)  Do whatever is needed to strengthen the new bases in the Aleutians.
7)  Watch out for Jap CVs patrolling the supply lines between Midway/Hawaii and Shikaku.
8)  As new ground units arrive in San Francisco, begin to prep for new objectives.  Likely target:  either Marcus Island or the Society Islands.
9)  The Aussies will work on taking Broken Hill, where the Japs are present in numbers and well-dug in.
10)  For the foreseeable future, the major Allied offense will take place in Sumatra and Malaya.  Troops at Port Blair, Tavoy, and Rangoon and vicinities are prepping for many bases there. Invasion of Victoria Point to commence as soon as the troops that chased the Japs out of Rangoon a hex (and thus are now bogged down on a yellow road) return to Rangoon; invasions of Georgetown and Sabang to follow closely thereafter.
11)  China: Do nothing but hold my ground.



Canoerebel -> Still Awaiting Final Decision (7/16/2008 1:31:10 PM)

John hasn't communicated his final decision on resumption of hostilities, but I would bet everything I have that we are back on.  During odd intervals yesterday, I spent time on the game looking at everything closely and issuing orders where things had kind of been placed on the backburner while we were engaged in the great battle of Hokkaido.  A few more thoughts about that battle:

1)  It is amazing how close I came to giving up.  As the battle drew on, I finally reached the point (as described in one of my posts above) where I was low on supplies, had determined that my carriers would not be able to replenish, and I had already issued orders for my carriers to flee southwest into the Pacific Ocean.  The battle was over.  Then, before clicking to end the turn and send it to John, a last minute check of everything showed that I still had a great deal of supplies on AKs near Shikuka.  Suddenly, I realized that I might be able to unload enough supplies to replenish those carrer air squadrons.  My guess that John's carriers were low on aircraft and mission sorties also finally proved right. Then the idea occurred to transfer in a bunch of 4E bombers to the big airfields at Sapporo and Toyohara even though neither base had base force personnel.  I figured those bombers might get in a few licks, and that's just what happened.  So I went from utter despair to seizing in the initiative in that one swing of events.

2)  In a recent post here, CapMandrake succinctly stated the precarious nature of the Allied position up here.  It will be difficult to stabalize and maintain the Allied position, but given where I was a week ago I cannot complain:

a) After John ambushed my carrier strike aircraft, I was left without any offensive power deep in enemy territory adjacent to many large enemy airfields. There was no doubt in my mind that my transports, combat ships, and carriers were about to get destroyed and that John, in contrast, would emerge with his carriers and combat ships intact. There was no other reasonable possibility and I even communicated to him that I was considering conceding the game.

b) Instead, my carriers have emerged largely intact, John's carriers have taken some damage; and both combat fleets have taken lumps. That's key, because the ability of the IJN combat ships to raid and pillage has been seriously degraded. The Allies now have more and better BBs available than do the Japs! (This is partially because John sent Yamato and Musashi to Sumatra, where the Royal Navy sank Musashi).

c) I think it will take a little while for John to rebuild his carrier air squadons which, in turn, should give the Allies a brief window to do the same and to organize things "up there."

I can't wait to see what happens both "up there," down around Sumatra and Malaya, in Australia, and in the Pacific.



Canoerebel -> RE: Still Awaiting Final Decision (7/17/2008 7:16:08 PM)

John has out-of-town company, so has asked if he could give me his final decision Sunday whether or not to continue the game.  As noted previously, I think he is strongly leaning toward continuing, but at a slower pace.  (For the record, it was I who initially suggested declaring the game a stalemate, not John).  So I think we'll pick up Sunday or Monday.

I've been more productive at work the past three days than I was the past three weeks.  WitP is certainly addictive.



Miller -> RE: Still Awaiting Final Decision (7/24/2008 12:47:16 AM)

So what's the score, Dan? Is it game on or game over?



Canoerebel -> RE: Still Awaiting Final Decision (7/24/2008 3:36:24 PM)

I got word from John this morning that he wants to continue, at least through the end of 1943 (we're nearing mid-December now).  Then we'll re-evaluate and decide whether to continue.  I just sent John the turn where we left off. 

To summarize where we are:

1)  After a brush with total disaster during the invasion of Hokkaido and vicinity, the Allies are close to pulling out a victory here.  This depends on two things:  (1)  That the Jap navy (especially air squadrons) are depleted and will need some time to replenish and recover, giving the Allies time to organize and replenish at their new bases on Sakhalin Island; (2) That the Allied CVs can indeed replenish air squadrons at Shikhara on Sikhalin Island.  I should know that by tomorrow.  The Allies also need to make progress on getting damaged ships (like CV Hancock) safely back to Hawaii and to get supplies and fuel from Hawaii to Sakhalin Island.

2)  The Allies have momentum in the CBI theater and are currently prepping troops and getting them in position to mount a series of invasions against a number of bases including Sabang, Victoria Point, and Georgetown.  It will be a week to ten days before operations commence (or longer depending on the time it takes for the big army east of Moulmein to get back to Rangoon on a bad road).

3)  Iwo Jima, Tori Shima, and Chichi Jima don't appear to be threatened by the Japanese at the moment.

4)  As new Allied units arrive in San Francisco, the Allies will determine where next to strike in CenPac or SoPac.



Canoerebel -> Major Developments near Hokkaido (7/26/2008 9:58:30 PM)

12/13/43
 
For the second day in a row the Allied plan continued to come together in ways that seemed outrageous fantasy just days ago.

Carriers:  The US CVs drew replacement aircraft while in port at Shikaku.  This was what I've been hoping for  and the key part of the plan.  With the CVs replenished, the Allies should be able to create havoc for the Jap forces in the vicinity of Hokkaido for a little while.  For well over a week the Allied CVs had been neutered and I wonder if John thinks that is still the case.  He still has a multitude of combat ships all around Hokkaido, and they could be juicy targets if he doesn't get them out of there.  Weather may affect carrier-air operations, but the Allied CVs will put sea tomorrow and hope to strike.

The KB:  Jap carriers are all over the place.  Soryu and several CVEs sighted on the east coast; Amagi and Akagi in the Sea of Japan; a U.S. sub put three TTs into already-crippled CV Hiryu and she is confirmed sunk; PBY Liberators put two more 500 lb bombs in CVE Unyo so she is in bad shape.  The Allies hope that it will take some time for the Japs to replenish carrier air - for at least awhile the Allied carriers should control the sea from Hokkaido north.

Surface Combat:  John sent a powerful combat TF featuring BB Kongo, CAs Furutaka, Mogami, and Suzuya, and several CLs and DDs into Shikaku, where they met an Allied combat TF anchored by BB Massachusetts, CAs Chester and Boise, and CLs Montpelier and Birmingham.  Over about five rounds of combat, the Japs scored 7 TT hits, sinking Chester and three DDs and badly damaging a number of other ships; but Massachusetts emerged unscathed and the Allied force scored plenty of hits, sinking two DDs, crippling Kongo, and damaging most of the other Jap ships.  Kongo limped away and took at least three 1,000 lb bombs from PBY Liberators.  I think she'll go down.

Another Jap combat TF with three BBs (Nagato, Mutsu and one other) bombarded Allied troops at Sapporo.

Combat Ship Status:  The Allies have alot of damaged combat ships at Shikaku, but can still draw on plenty of reserves and borrow from some of the carrier TFs.  I should be able to draw at least four slow BBs and enough CAs and CLs to handle whatever John has left.  At some point, though, the Allies will want to use the carriers to escort damaged ships back toward Hawaii.

Hokkaido:  3rd Marine Division has moved to the inland city (Ashigara?) and should take it tomorrow.  Two smaller units have moved to the hex between Sapporo and Hakodate and should take it tomorrow.  I hope this will open the road so that my Hakodate units can retreat to Sapporo.

Aleutians:  Jap bombers from three bases scored hits on at least a dozen Allied transports; P-38Js on CAP didn't handle the situtation well.  However, I doubt John can spare a force large enough to threaten the two Allied bases as long as Allied carriers are in good shape and as long as the situation up around Hokkaido is so critical.

Carrier Raid Potential:  I haven't seen Shikoku and Zuikaku in a week or so.  Knowing John, he will send carriers to the sea lanes between the Aleutians, Hokkaido, and Midway/Hawaii to pick off damaged ships.  Two more Allied CVEs are heading for Shikaku and should rendezvous with the main carrier fleet in about two days.  If they bump into a larger force, though, it will be curtains for them.

Edited: To correct date of turn



Canoerebel -> Jap Battleships on the Rocks (7/28/2008 4:29:15 PM)

12/14/43
 
Near Shikaku:  The Allied CVs left port set to follow a surface combat TF led by BB Massachusetts and CL Denver; they were to take post just south of the "Cold Zone Line" and try to pick off Jap combat ships.  However, the combat TF encountered a powerful Jap combat TF including BBs Nagato, Mutsu, and Hyuga and CA Atago, and two rounds of combat ensued.  This time the Allies scored a decisive victory as BB Nagato took at leat 10 16" shells from Massachusetts and went under; Mutsu and Hyuga took smaller shots from 6" and 5" guns from the escorts, and CA Atago took at least one torpedo.  In addition to Nagato, the Japs lost five DDs.  The Allies lost a single DD, and Massachusetts once again emerged unscathed.

Japanese Battleships:  The Jap battleships are really taking it on the chin now.  John has lost six (Kirishima, Yamashiro, Fuso, Musashi, Haruna, and Nagato).  Yamato took a TT down near Port Blair, and Ise had taken at least one TT down near Iwo, and took to more today from Sub Tullabe near Tokyo.  Mutsu is "on fire" and Hyuga was seen "smoking" heavily during the combat.  Kongo got clobbered yesterday at Shikaku and is either crippled or will go down. Hiei suffered heavy damage at Iwo and I had thought she might go under at the time. That's most (or all?) of the Jap battleships accounted for, and the Allies now have a decided advantage in the BB department.

Other Jap combat ships:  CL Nagara hit a mine at Sapporo and later took a TT from Sub Capelin; Then, up in the Kuriles, the Allied CVE TF making for Shikuka launched a strike force of Avengers which put two TT into CA Chokai, part of a Jap combat TF that is patroling northern waters looking for crippled Allied ships.   

Combat and Carrier Ship Comparison:  The Allies still have enough undamaged combat ships to make one or two powerful TFs, and BB Massachusetts seems to rule the seas at the moment.  The Japs should still have plenty of CAs and CLs, but this part of the battle has really trended in favor of the Allies in a way I hadn't expected.  In terms of carriers, the Allies thus far have lost several CVEs; CVL Bataan has moderate damage; and CV Benjamin Franklin has fairly heavy damage (62 SYS, 42 FLT at the moment).  But that still leaves the Allies with a strong carrier presence (6 fleet CVs, 7 CVLs, and four or five CVEs with two more about to arrive).  All carrier air squadrons are now fully stocked.  The Japs have lost CV Hiryu with CV Taiyo taking a TT, and CVE Unyo in a bad way; severl more Jap CVs took some damage, mainly light damage during the surface combat encounter several days ago.  I don't know how experienced Jap replacement pilots will be.

Hokkaido:  3rd Marines took Ashigara and may now move on Wakkanai (the base at the northern tip of the island).  Two smaller detachments took control of the hex between Sapporo and Hakodate, so I'll see now if my troops at the southern tip can withdraw toward Sapporo.  Jap reinforcements are pouring into Hakodate and I doubt the Allies will be able to hold any of the bases on the island for very long.  If I can seize Wakkanai, though, that could become a fortress since it is so close to Toyohara, where I expect the Allies to have a powerful base.

Sikhalin Island: Allies supplies at Shikoku are up to 72,000 with transports still unloading. That's a pretty good number considering that the carriers have already replenished. The three base forces that unloaded here are badly disorganized. Base forces on the island can only handle about 100 aircraft at the moment. I hope they'll recover strength quickly given the favorable supply situation. I don't have any base forces at Toyohara at the moment and will work on getting one there by land.

Shokaku/Zuikaku:  I think these CVs showed up in the sea lanes just as predicted.  Judys and Jills in moderate numbers hits a number of transports.  Nothing I can do about this, but I have so many ships scattered all over the place that I doubt these two carriers have enough mission sorties to accomplish anything major.  CVE Anzio, which took heavy damage a week back, is getting fairly close to LRCAP from Midway and there is a chance she'll survive.

Aleutians:  For some reason, P-38s aren't doing well on CAP duty up here, so Bettys are scoring at will against merchant ships.  On the flip side, the Seabees and EAB at Adak Island already have that base 43% to a level 2 airfield, making much faster progress than at first anticipated.  That base can be built to a level 6, and the Allies have enough base force personnel to handle 250 aircraft.  As that base grows larger, the Allies may be able to seize control of the air and begin to contemplate offensive action against nearby Jap bases. As long as the Japs are focused on Hokkaido and Sikhalin, I am hoping that they won't be able to strike here. If the Allies can seize control of the Aleutians, it will make getting supplies and fuel to Shikoku alot easier, and allow damaged ships to retreat from there more safely.

Situation as a Whole:  Five days ago, I thought the invasion of Hokkaido was an absolute disaster on the ground, on the seas, and in the air.  My carriers were neutered (all strike aicraft gone, down to just 50 Hellcats), I had lost far more ships than the Japs, and there was no way to protect the troops on the ground.  I am still concerned that I could lose my troops on Hokkaido, but as long as the US carriers survive, such a loss would be acceptable.  The devastation suffered by Jap battleships and other combat fleets, to Jap naval pilots and aircraft, and to a lesser extent Jap CVs, have truly altered the balance of power.  The only thing that could swing the pendulum back in favor of the Japs would be a decisive carrier victory.  So my primary concern now is protecting my carriers.

AnZac:  Elements of 40th US Army Division seized an unoccupied Norfolk Island, which has a level one airbase.  Eventually the Allies will move on either Noumea, Efate, or Suva (possibly awaiting arrival of CVs Hornet and Wasp which should be enough to handle any Jap carriers in the area).  The Allies are pulling back from Broken Hill temporarily, to await arrival of several divisions before besieging that post.

CBI:  It will be another two weeks or so before the ground units that chased the Japs east from Moulmein make it back to Rangoon to rest and refit.  I've been busy shuffling other troops from Port Blair to Rangoon so that they two can replenish.  Further offensive operations should commence in about three weeks.

Points:  Japs 47,097; Allies 31,083.



Canoerebel -> RE: Jap Battleships on the Rocks (7/28/2008 8:53:21 PM)

Following up on the turn of the 14th, here's the major Allied operations set for the 15th:

1)  The U.S. carrier TFs will follow a combat TF (BB Massachusetts and escorts) south to a point just south of the "Cold Zone Line".  Strike aircraft are set to "naval strike" with alternate for "port strike" with Wakkanai the objective.  Recon shows a number of Japanese combat ships in port there and I think some of these are major warships recently damaged in surface engagements.  One squadron of P-38Js from Shikaku will provide LRCAP.

2)  The RN carrier TFs will proceed about halfway between Sabang and Port Blair set for port strike on Sabang where the Japs have a number of combat ships.  An RN combat TF will follow and may bombard Sabang the following day if everything goes well.

3)  A hodge-podge of Allied transports near the Jap carrier TF NW of Midway will disperse and head in all directions.  The Japs have a multitude of unprotected targets, but nothing critical.

4)  Two CVEs will continue steaming toward Shikaku and should end the day about five hexes from that port.



Alfred -> RE: Jap Battleships on the Rocks (7/29/2008 9:33:06 AM)

Canoerebel,

In this mod, Norfolk Island starts off under New Zealand Command (should really be Australian Command).  Now that it has been recaptured by 40th USA ID I am curious to know which command the base has been allocated to.   Also under what command is 40 ID.

Alfred



Canoerebel -> RE: Jap Battleships on the Rocks (7/29/2008 1:56:25 PM)

Norfolk Island is now a U.S. Army base attached to South Pacific HQ; but 40th Infantry Division is assigned to Central Pacific HQ. 

The assignment of the Australian bases recaptured by the Aussies has been rather haphazard too.  A few have gone to the Aussies, but most to USA; of those going to USA, the game gave me the option of switching a few of them back to Australia, but most of them don't have any option other than USA.  So i have a bunch of green/star icons on Australia's east coast.



Canoerebel -> RE: Jap Battleships on the Rocks (7/29/2008 3:59:10 PM)

12/15/43
 
US Carriers:  The carrier TFs took station two hexes east of Wakkanai.  Morning strikes put three TT into already-damaged BB Mutsu in port there.  Afternoon raids put nine bombs (mostly 1000 lbers) into the stricken ship.  Mutsu may not go down, but she will be out of the war for a long time.  Jap bombers - mainly from Wakkani and a few from Hakodate, sortied, but in a series of fairly small attacks, each of which were easily repulsed by the CAP of 100 Hellcats and 19 P38s. I debated whether to continue the carrier raid, but decided to pull the carriers back to Shikoku for a few days; I want to give my carrier air squadrons time to come fully "online."

Sikhalin Island:  Shikoku has 100,000 supplies with another 25,000 to be unloaded.  Engineers have the airfield 50% to level 2.  The port can be built up to level 9, and is currently a 4.  There are 17,000 supplies at Toyahara, currently a level 6 airfield.  A small base force will arrive tomorrow.

Hokkaido:  The Allies indeed opened the road between Hakodate and Sapporo.  Three small units - including a small base force - are already halfway to Sapporo.  Third Marines should arrive at Wakkanai in two days.  I don't know if this unit is strong enough to take the base, but doing so is critical.  It will be much easier for the Allies to Dunkirk from Wakkanai than from the much more exposed Sapporo.  I may have to commit some troops to an amphibious invasion of Wakkanai if the Marines don't have enough punch.  The Japs launched a deliberate attack at Hakodate at 1:1 odds.  Although the Japs have four divisions and a mxied regiment and greatly outnumber the Allied units, they aren't prepped for Hakodate while the Allied troops are.  So the Japs lost 1303/66/1 to 642/5/4. 

Long-Range Plans:  I hope the Allies can remain at Hakodate a few more turns while the Allies work on their Hokkaido evacuation plan.  I don't think there's any way to hold any of the bases on Hokkaido, but the Allies will be very satisfied if they can work out a plan to hold and build the bases on Sikahlin Island, one or two of the bases in the Kuriles, and the two bases seized in the Aleutians.  Doing so will allow the Allies to bomb most Home Island cities (especially when the B-29s become available) and eliminate the Jap bases in the Aluetians.  That will be a major focus for Allied operations the rest of the war.

Aleutians:  Adak Island is already 83% to level 2 airfield.  I thought winter conditions would slow construction drastically, but the Allies have enough engineers to make quick progress.  I think this airfield will reach level 3 in a week.  That will help make this area secure for the Allies.

Mid-Pacific:  The Mini-KB (probably CVs Shikoku and Zuikaku) continued to strike damaged transports.  Truly, though, this is insignificant compared to the role these carriers could have played if they had taken part in the Hokkaido campaign.  There's nothing I can do to prevent these carriers from swatting and killing mosquitoes, but I'm glad to know they can't be part of any counterattack against the Allied forces up north (for awhile - they'll have to replenish sorties in port first).

CBI:  RN carriers raided the port of Sabang.  Avengers put a TT into an already damaged DD, and scored single bomb hits against an MLE and an AR.  The RN bombardment TF should hit the port tonight.  Kates from Bangkok damaged two transports taking troops from Tavoy to Rangoon, the marshalling point for most of the Allied units slated for upcoming amphious operations.  Tomorrow, Liberator IIIs from Rangoon are schedule to hit Bangkok's resources.  



Canoerebel -> RE: Jap Battleships on the Rocks (7/30/2008 3:24:46 AM)

12/16/43
 
Another good day.  The Allies are on a roll that I wish would never end.  This comes after so much defeat and agony in this game that it's simply a wonderful feeling.  It can't last, but I'll enjoy it while it does.

Sendai:  I set PBY Liberators and B-24s on Iwo Jima to port attack Sendai on the possibility that damaged Japanese ships sought refuge here.  There was light CAP and the big bombers found juicy targets, scoring three more hits on CVE Unyo and two on CV Soryu, setting the latter afire.  This is another blow to the Jap carrier fleet, and it also must be disconcerting to John.  Allied bombers from Iwo, Hokkaido, and Sikhalin Island are hitting Japanese shipping all over the Home Islands.  This won't last, because John will soon get his CAP situation in order, but LBA sank Hiryu, crippled CVE Unyo, and damged CV Soryu.

Wakkanai:  Allied carrier-based and land-based strike aircraft raided Wakkanai again, scoring another TT hit to BB Mutsu (that's four torpedos in two days) along with ten more bomb strikes.  Just to the south, 3rd Marine Division pushed back a couple of small Jap units into Wakkanai, and 3rd Marines ought to arrive tomorrow.

Mid-Pacific:  The Mini-KB scored many more hits against some damaged DDs, transports, tankers, and auxiliary ships.  Still nothing major here, and the Jap carriers will soon run low on mission sorties.

Sabang (Sumatra):  The RN bombardment TF led by BC Repulse hit this base, scoring hits on two damaged DDs, and other hits on an AK, MLE, AR, and AS.  (The two BBs damaged in surface combat with BBs Yamato and Musashi a week ago made Trincomalee; they suffered about 25 and 45 SYS damage, respectively).



Canoerebel -> Hokkaido Map - 12/17/43 (7/30/2008 5:50:47 PM)

Usually I crop maps to fit them in the forums, but this one is oversized. I apologize for the inconvenience.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/42DCDC6D27214806A002B63ADB23D7C9.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> Aleutians Map - 12/17/43 (7/30/2008 8:40:26 PM)

The situation in the Aleutians as of December 17, 1943. The situation in the Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island area is so critical that the Japanese should devote most of their attention there over the coming weeks; if so, that should give the Allies time to build up Adak Island fully. With Adak able to handle 300 aircraft upon reaching level 6 airfield status, the Japs won't be able to make further use of their bases in the Aleutians.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/4B06C98E222247C4A27020E395B81573.jpg[/image]



Mark VII -> RE: Aleutians Map - 12/17/43 (7/31/2008 3:43:05 PM)

nice maps!



Canoerebel -> Equilibrium Regained (8/3/2008 9:41:27 PM)

12/17/43 to 12/19/43
 
The avalanche of Allied success in the Far North has slowed considerably, the Japs have had some success, and it is clear that John has regained much of the equilibrium he lost during the crazy events of December 8 to 16.

Hokkaido:  The Japs have been unable to push the Allied troops out of Hakodate despite overwhelming superiority in men.  A 1:1 shock attack ont he 18th cost the Japs 3465/66/8 to 742/6/2.  At the other end of the island, 3rd Marine Division made a completely unsuccessful 0:1 shock attack at Wakkanai (Japs have four forts there).  So now I face a tough decision - with six or eight Jap divisions ashore at Hakodate, I don't think it's possible for the Allies to hold any bases here without devoting everything to the task.  That, in turn, would risk the Allies' ability to hold Sakhalin Island.  I want to evacuate Hokkaido, because I think the Allies are in great shape as long as they continue to hold the two big bases on Sikhalin Island (Toyohara and Shikuka) and have CV parity or superiority.  Therefore, I am going to try to evacuate some of my troops out through Sapporo.  This is a hazardous undertaking because Sapporo is close to big Jap air bases at Wakkanai, Hakodate, Aomori, and Ominato.  I don't want to expose my carriers to much here, so I may try to slip in small numbers of AKs at a time.  My CVs and transports are already moving that way.  As many military leaders have noted, a withdrawal is an awfully complicated and risky maneuver to execute.

Sikhalin Island:  Things look good here.  I don't think the Japs have any chance of invading this island.  The two biggest obstacles would be the losses in Jap battleships and the presence of Allied carriers.  Shikuka airfield should reach level two tomorrow or the next day.

Aleutians:  Adak Island airfield just reached level 2 and will reach level 3 in no more than two or three days.  With an Army division and a RCT garrisoning this post, I think it is pretty secure now.  Soon this airfield should dominate the Western Aleutians.

Kuriles:  A fast transport TF carried a parachute detachment to one of the three remaining Jap bases in the Kuriles.  It appears unoccupied and should fall tomorrow.  The other two islands will be targeted within the week.

North Pacific:  Two Jap Mini-KBs are operating between Midway and the Aleutians and have picked off dozens of transports, plus the damaged BB Mississippi, and a number of AOs.  The damage inflicted has been noted and felt, but at the same time I'd much rather have Jap carriers far away from the most critical area (Hokkaido and Sikhalin Island).  With so many carriers damaged and absent, I need only worry about LBA right now, and that is a big enough concern.  (Allied carrier-based air hit BB Mutsu at Wakkanai again on the 18th, putting more than 33 bombs into the stricken ship; CAs Suzuya and Atago were hit by PBY Liberators and should be out of action for weeks or months).

Iwo Jima:  This island is secure, both because of mines (20k+), garrison (AV 1200+), and Allied combat ships (two fast BBs, the Japs don't have any available).  But I am worried about Tori Shima.  The garrison is a RCT and a Marine paratroop batallion, with forts 7, so it would take time and a major commitment to seize this island, and I don't think the Japs would have the luxury of time given the proximity of Allied battleships at Iwo Jima.  I'll try to boost the mine level at this island.

Australia:  Quiet while the Allies consolidate forces in preparation for a concerted move on Broken Hill.  The Aussies landed a base force on Norfolk Island.  A PBM Mariner squadron moved there today and will begin air/sea patrols and some recon duties.  Eventually, the Allies will move north from New Zealand and NE from Australia.

CBI:  Troops continue to gather at Rangoon.  The main army will that disappeared into the jungles should arrive back here in two weeks.  Then things will move quickly as the Allies target Sabang, Victoria Point, Georgetown, and other Japanese bases in Malaya and on Sumatra.  I have a bit of concern that John might send some carriers this way to try to take on the RN carriers in a "fair numbers" fight; would he risk doing so when he may need them in the North Pacific?

Kamikazes:  John can make use of these starting 1/1/44, less than two weeks from now.  Based upon my experience in my game with Miller, it's not a good idea to use CVEs in range of Kamikazes; on the other hand, Kamikazes don't seem to do well against the main Allied carriers.  So I want to have my CVEs tucked away safely by the end of 1943.  That means I want to wrap up whatever Hokkaido evacuations willl take place by then.  As soon as that is done, I would like to send damaged Allied combat ships and carriers, plus the vulnerable CVEs, back toward Hawaii from Shikuka, escorted part of the way by the carrier fleet.  They would then be met by transports bringing supplies, fuel, and reinforcements.  That's the plan for now.



DW -> RE: Equilibrium Regained (8/4/2008 9:13:00 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/17/43 to 12/19/43

The avalanche of Allied success in the Far North has slowed considerably, the Japs have had some success, and it is clear that John has regained much of the equilibrium he lost during the crazy events of December 8 to 16.

Hokkaido: The Japs have been unable to push the Allied troops out of Hakodate despite overwhelming superiority in men. A 1:1 shock attack ont he 18th cost the Japs 3465/66/8 to 742/6/2. At the other end of the island, 3rd Marine Division made a completely unsuccessful 0:1 shock attack at Wakkanai (Japs have four forts there). So now I face a tough decision - with six or eight Jap divisions ashore at Hakodate, I don't think it's possible for the Allies to hold any bases here without devoting everything to the task. That, in turn, would risk the Allies' ability to hold Sakhalin Island. I want to evacuate Hokkaido, because I think the Allies are in great shape as long as they continue to hold the two big bases on Sikhalin Island (Toyohara and Shikuka) and have CV parity or superiority. Therefore, I am going to try to evacuate some of my troops out through Sapporo. This is a hazardous undertaking because Sapporo is close to big Jap air bases at Wakkanai, Hakodate, Aomori, and Ominato. I don't want to expose my carriers to much here, so I may try to slip in small numbers of AKs at a time. My CVs and transports are already moving that way. As many military leaders have noted, a withdrawal is an awfully complicated and risky maneuver to execute.



Still enjoying your AAR.

Couldn't you pull all your troops in Hakodate and Sapporo back to the 3rd Marine position at Wakkanai, and evacuate over the beaches from there?

I've seen plenty of evacuations from various contested islands in other AARs I've read, and I've never noticed any serious problems with loading troops from a contested hex.

Further, you could spawn some barges in Toyohara and use them to pick up your troops if you're short on APs and AKs. It's only a short trip across the straight between Hokkaido and Sikhalin, so I don't think there should be any objections to such tactics.

Further still, while I don't recall exactly what forces you have on Hokkaido, is it at all possible that if you pulled all your forces back to Wakkanai, you might be able to take the hex and maintain a presence on Hokkaido? It would be fairly easy to keep them in supply and capped across the narrow straight and naval support could be close at hand.

Any forces he used to attack you could be pounded from the air and sea, and it's extremely doubtful that your opponent would contemplate a counter invasion of Sikhalin without first capturing Wakkanai. And, if things did become too hot, you could always evacuate later.

Just a thought...








Q-Ball -> RE: Equilibrium Regained (8/4/2008 1:51:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DW
Couldn't you pull all your troops in Hakodate and Sapporo back to the 3rd Marine position at Wakkanai, and evacuate over the beaches from there?

I've seen plenty of evacuations from various contested islands in other AARs I've read, and I've never noticed any serious problems with loading troops from a contested hex.



Marching more troops up to Wakkanai, capturing it, and then using that base as an evacuation point isn't a bad idea. But evacuating over the beaches at Wakkanai is a very bad one. Without a base in the hex, you would have to LRCAP from somewhere else to cover the ships. Without a base, a retreat would immediately become a surrender. And it would take much longer over a beach instead of a friendly port, leaving the ships exposed for that much longer.

Taking Wakkanai isn't a bad idea, but you can't withdraw from a hostile hex.

It's going to take a ton of transports to pull that kind of pullback off cleanly.



Mistmatz -> RE: Hokkaido Map - 12/17/43 (8/4/2008 2:56:21 PM)

Hi Canoerebel,

what was the exact outcome of the battel in Wakkanai? Any chance to get that without weakening Hakodate/Sapporo to much?
What AV and fort level do you have in Sapporo?
And finally what about the japanese unit(s) south of Sapporo is this possibly a threat that could cut your line between Hakodate and Sapporo and prevent your units from moving?

If possible I'd also go for Wakkanai for easier evac as well as a potential foothold on Hokkaido. Your LBA on Sakhalin could work up the japanese advancing troops and fly easy missions on them but I'm not sure if your aviation support situation there is now sufficient?
On the other hand the 5 hexes from Hakodate to Wakkanai can take an awfully long time if the japs are on your heels or even worse trying to trap your troops in pockets and force you to evac from beaches.

I'm glad the two of you are continueing this game for the time being. And I also like the slower pace that you seem to have, as this will make it easier and perhaps more enjoyable for the players and more reliable for us readers. ;)



Q-Ball -> RE: Hokkaido Map - 12/17/43 (8/4/2008 3:38:42 PM)

It's a tough spot for Dan. I don't think a foothold is possible, though if it is, I would try for Sapporo. Reason is that it's better terrain to defend than Wakkanai, which is a clear hex. It also still offers a retreat path if the Japs take it. Trying to hold Wakkanai is dangerous, because defeat would be very costly.




Mistmatz -> RE: Hokkaido Map - 12/17/43 (8/4/2008 4:09:54 PM)

Q-Ball, good point with the terrain. On the screenie it appeared to be forest for Wakkanai and clear for Sapporo, thats why it is always better to doublecheck, thx.

The problem with Sapporo is, it is more difficult to evac from there plus it can be surrounded. With Wakkanai you'd know its the last stand beforehand, but it is not captured, which is also a considerable risk.[:D]
If a foothold is not planned/fought for, I agree it should be better not spending assets on taking Wakkanai but building an adhoc defence in Sapporo that can buy the evac from there some time.

This AAR certainly remains interesting. [8D]



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