Operation Shooting Star (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> Operation Shooting Star (2/2/2009 3:22:10 PM)

8/5/44 and 8/6/44
 
SEAC:  A vacant Phnom Penh fell to the Allies on the 6th, separating a small Japanese army retreating from Bangkok from the main Japanese army at Saigon.  A Chinese army is approaching Saigon from the north while a mixed Allied army moves that way from the west.  To the south, the Allies continue efforts to reduce Japanese defenses at Malacca and Johore Bharu.  Tomorrow, the three B-29 squadrons at Georgetown will hit Palembang's resources, the first scheduled strike on that city in weeks.

Japan:  Allied 4EB from Sikhalin Island, Iwo Jima, and China hit Osaka/Kobe (resources and airfield) and Niigata (heavy industry and airfield) on the 6th.  This time the fighter battle was essentially even and the bombers made effective runs, knocking out 68 HI at Niigata and 27 resources at Osaka/Kobe.  On the day, the Allies lost 75 aircraft (64 a-2-a, 0 field, 4 flak, 7 ops) to 97 for the Japs (62, 30, 1, 4).

NoPac:  The Allies are landing at Dutch Harbor, but I'm using AKs so it's slow going and I'll wait three or four days to attack to give time for troops to recover from disruption, and to unload supplies.

CenPac:  Quiet at Iwo Jima.  The massive Wake Island armada is about 400 miles south of Midway.  (Vettim, I'll probably use bombardment TF with three BBs to suppress Jap shore guns, and use the CVE TBMs to suppress Wake's airfield).  John currently has 130 bombers posted at Wake - I expect him to withdraw his aircraft as soon as the Allied force nears; if he doesn't, that would be a sign that he intends an all-out fight with the KB joining LBA (but I don't expect him to do this).

SWPac:  Quiet as the Allies keep a wary eye out for the KB, and bide their time until they can move north and east in numbers, linking up with the Americans that will head south after the Wake operation is finished.

Points:  (a) 62,057 to (j) 55,338; Ratio:  1.12 to 1; Strategic:  9,782.

Morale:  I noted last week that John was sending turns at a frantic rate - usually a sign that he's up to something big.  Nothing big ever happened and now the turn-around has become very slow.  He seems to have temporarily lost interest in the game.  It could be that the Japs are in such a position that he's not enjoying the game right now, or this could be an elaborate hoax to throw me off by departing from his usual behavior.  IE - I'm not certain how to read things at the moment.

Operation Shooting Star:  This will be the next major Allied move following the conquest of Wake, Saigon, and Singapore (should those events happen in a reasonable time) and will be the Allied thrust toward Java, Borneo, the Philippines, or even Japan.  I know the target, but shall keep the plans close to the vest for now.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/3/2009 2:35:53 PM)

8/7/44 to 8/9/44
 
Message from John:  "About time you came for Wake.  It will be bloody!  I'll lose my boys but it will be at cost.  My Torpedo Planes and Bombers thank you for 3 weeks of training though.  Am really curious to see how this works out.  I ran about 25,000 supply into the base so this should be interesting."

Reply:  None.

Wake Island:  The Allied invasion force arrived four hexes from Wake.  The CVE torpedo bombers hit the airfield, destroying six aircraft on the ground.  John had already pulled out most of his aircraft, and following that attack removed the rest.  I take this as a sign he isn't sending in the KB (if he were I think he'd load up Wake's airfield to supplement the attack).  Tomorrow the CVE torpedo bombers will hit the port facilities while the armada takes position 60 miles north of Wake.  The following day I'll send in minesweepers, a bombardment TF, and transports carrying supplies.  It will be several more days before I unload troops.

NoPac:  A probing 1:1 at Dutch Harbor came off at 4:1 and dropped forts from 9 to 8.  I'll rest my troops a day or two and then shock attack.  It looks like this base will fall easily.

SWPac:  Reinforcements have arrived at Noumea.  No sign of the KB in SWPac.

SEAC:  Allied armies continue to close on Saigon from north and west.  Jap resistance is fading at Malacca as the most recent attack came in at 15:1.  At Johore Bharu, a probing deliberate attack came off at 1:1 and didn't budge the 7 forts.  The Allies lost 4361/89/14 to 2996/88.  I'll need to finish off Malacca and bring those troops down to Johore to make real progress.

Comparison to my Game with Miller:   My game with Miller ended on this date, August 9, 1944, when Miller conceded after a long and difficult campaign.  At the time the Allies were up 20,000 points (74k to 54k), while in this game the Allies are up about 7,000 points.  That game was about opposite of this one.  Here the Allies have taken a northern and western route.  To the north, Iwo Jima, Sikhalin Island, and most of the Kuriles have fallen; and to the west the Allies have most of Malaya, Siam, and Indochina.  In my game with Miller I had none of those places, but had taken all of Timor, Flores, Celebes, Philippines, Formosa, and parts of Okinawa and southern Japan, none of which I hold in this game.  John was much more aggressive during the first half of the game, while Miller was much more aggressive in the second half.  He committed the KB in massed attacks that resulted in bloody losses to both sides, slowing Allied supply and momentum.  John thus far has refused to risk his carriers in a major engagement, and I wonder when he will do so.  He doesn't want to wait so long that he has no safe port so that his carriers are at risk of 4EB raids. John is also reluctant to commit his airforce - Miller had a number of raids where he lost 800 to 1,000 aircraft in a day (some of these were disasters, others were all-out battles where he sank bunches of CVEs or otherwise blunted an Allied move). I don't think John has ever lost as many as 300 aicraft in a single day. And yet, John's reluctance to commit his aircraft (except over Japan) has given the Allies complete air superiority in most areas. At this point in the game, I don't have sufficient data to know which of the two strategies is more effective in the long run. The points difference is attributable to John's experience level with the game and to his aggressive opening moves that took so much of SWPac and SoPac. I'm still recovering from being pinned back so far and getting such a late start on the Allied counter-offensive, but I think Allied momentum is building.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/4/2009 12:01:08 AM)

I should note an important difference between this game and my game with Miller.  In that game, by August 1944 the Japanese had "run out of steam, troops, and material" and the Allies could do pretty much whatever they wished to do - at least in the air and on the sea.  Miller still had plenty of troops and the going on the ground would have been slow.

In this game John still has a very viable position and fighting force.  I can by no means go wherever I want to, although I think the Allies will reach that point, pehaps even in 1944.  The KB and IJN combat ships are still powerful (with the notable exception of battleships), the airforce is large, the infantry is large, and perhaps most important the Japs still have alot of territory so that the Allies can't concentrate totally on one area.  There is strength in dispersion.

That's not to cast aspersion's on Miller's play, though.  John has a heck of alot more experience than Miller or I, and his his opening 18 months of play put the Allies in a huge hole that's slow climbing out of. 



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/4/2009 3:08:32 PM)

8/10/44 and 8/11/44
 
Wake Island:  The invasion force arrived near Wake; on the 10th, CVE torpedo bombers hit the port; on the 11th, I accidentally unleashed ALL torpedo bombers, so 400 of them hit the airfield and port.  The bombardment force also hit on the 11th, doing 327/14.  Most importantly, there are no mines, no sign of the KB, and John pulled out all his aircraft.  Tomorrow, the bombardment TF (3 BBs) will hit again as well a second TF (with BB Richelieu) on the way from Eniwetok.  Transports will unload supplies. If all goes well, the troops begin landing the day after tomorrow.

NoPac:  The Allies took Dutch Harbor on the 11th.   On the 10th, 4EB from Iwo, China, and Sikhalin Island hit Fukuoka (25 resources and a hit or two on the Frank factory), Anshan in Manchuria (43 resources), and in Japan Aomori (30 manpower hits, airfield strike), and Ominato (airfield and port strike).  These bombers will rest a few days.  I've spent a good deal of time positioning reinforcement aircraft in the Aleutians and at Onnekotan and Paramushiro.  The Allies are on a heightened state of alert and I'm somewhat concerned that I may have to swap out bombers in favor of fighters on Iwo and Sikhalin Island in the near future.

CenPac:  Iwo and Eniwetok are quiet at the moment and fully mined (33,000+ each).

SWPac:  A probing 1:1 at Koumac dropped forts to four.  A NZ brigade is on the way to lend a hand.  No sign of a Jap response to these recent Allied moves in New Caledonia and at Milne Bay.

SEAC:  Two Allied armies ought to converge at Saigon in two or three days.  I'm not sure yet whether John stripped Saigon's defenses or whether it will be a tough nut like Johore Bharu/Singapore will be.

Rumblings:  With the Allied carriers momentarily tied up at Wake Island, this is a good time for John to strike.  Regular readers know that I have concerns about threats around the map, and those concerns are growing, although I still have not one scintilla of a clue as to the KB's whereabouts.   My sense of unease grew yesterday when John posted an AAR titled "Kaigun sails" (isn't the Kaigun the IJN?) with frequent posts following.  USS America replied to that post, and whenever he's interested in an upcoming fray he posts that little devil-munching-popcorn emoticon. [sm=00000613.gif]I'd bet that's exactly what he posted.  Then alarms really started ringing when John sent an email late last night advising he would be around today and would like to get in three or four turns.  When he's engaged and flipping turns quickly, something's up.

So, I came to work today (yes, I play at work; don't ask) expecting that I'd have to really tie things down at Iwo, Malaya, and Sikhalin Island in preparation for a major attack, but as I looked at the map I didn't see any red flags (like airfields suddenly filled with Jap bombers, or Jap armadas suddenly detected somewhere where no armada should be).  Moreover, each of these bases is strongly defended so that I just don't think John can accomplish anything that would really affect the game's strategic posture - if he brought enough troops to really do something, it would take so long that the American carriers would have time to intervene (at least at Iwo or Sikhalin Island).

A strike by the KB or massed-LBA would score points but certainly wouldn't alter the strategic situation.  A massive invasion of Sikhalin Island would be worrisome, but the defenses are mighty.  An invasion of Iwo seems logical and it would be a blow if successful, but Iwo isn't that far from the American carriers, and its troops and forts and mines are sufficient to hold off the "Indians" for a long time.

There is some Allied bait in Malaya - I've had a strong RN combat TF with two BBs posted at Malacca for a couple of weeks.  That has to tempt John, but I've arranged alot of fighter CAP.  I'm essentially inviting a strike by the KB here, both because John would lose alot of aicraft and because it gets the KB off in a corner and out of the way for awhile.

But the most logical (and least damaging to the Allies) target is probably SWPac - New Guinea, New Caledonia, or something like that.  I have a few carriers there (more red meat dangled in front of John) and the Allies are still pretty weak in this theater.  Yet would he risk the KB getting cut off by the American carriers?  The Japanese sea lanes to SWPac are constricted now by Allied positions at Eniwetok/Ponape and Australia, and the American CVs at Wake could sit astride the lanes (say around Rabaul) and then John would essentially have to run a blockade.  I don't know if he would take that chance.

Bottom line:  Something's up, but I have no idea what or where.  I just think it'll be soon.

Points:  (A) 62,461 to (J) 55,453; Ratio:  1.12 to 1; Strategic Points:  9,932; Bases: (A) 249 to (J) 250.




paullus99 -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/4/2009 4:21:50 PM)

You're probably right to be suspicious - but it sounds like regardless of where he tries to hit, you would be able to bleed him pretty badly. I don't know if there is really anywhere he can strike & not lose at least a boatload of pilots - if he happens to get you in a stand-up fight, you've got the carrier strength to really plow him under (and afford to lose a few CVEs in the process).

Stay focused, don't get distracted. I like the way your plan is shaping up - he's trying to get you to jump at the first sign of action, but stay on target. Right now, the KB is a bigger distraction by not going into action - keeps you guessing.

As soon as it appears, you'll know whatever else you have is safe & you can mobilize to take him down. I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens.



USSAmerica -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/4/2009 5:29:25 PM)

Do you mean like this, Dan? [sm=00000613.gif]

I am just really enjoying this war.  Both of you write quite well, and write what you are thinking, and planning, in addition to what happened last turn.  Thanks for taking the time to include us all in your fun.  [8D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/4/2009 7:41:38 PM)

8/12/44
 
USS America:  Yeah, that's the trademark I associate with your posts, when your sitting back to relax and enjoy some good AAR carnage.  I can just picture you inserting that in your post on John's AAR, though of course I don't know if you actually did.

Very quiet on the 12th - still no signs of a Jap armada or sudden masses of aircraft at forward bases. 

CenPac:  Two bombardment TFs hit Wake Island, the supply transports began unloading, but it appears my troops already on the island need at least one more day of re-supply before they can attack.  So no amphibious landings tomorrow.

NoPac:  B-29s from Shikuka ordered to hit Toyama's resources tomorrow, while the rest of the Sikhalin Island 4EB strike airfields at Ashigara, Ominato, and Aomori.  The small mixed TF (apparently an AV and an AK) were sighted south of the Kuriles today, their first appearance in a good ten days.  I don't know what John is doing - I think these are just decoys or bait.  I'm ignoring them as inconsequential.

SWPac:  Glenn-equipped subs north and east of Auckland.  This could be recon for a KB strike, or purely a ruse.  I don't have much at sea in this region, so I'm not very concerned.

SEAC:  The vise (I hope it's a vise and not something self-destructive) continues to close around Saigon. Allied troops should arrive en masse in two or three days.  I continue to tweak CAP over the RN combat TF at Malacca, wondering if John will take this bait, and if so doing the KB will arrive in such vast numbers as to overwhelm my defenses.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/4/2009 11:05:41 PM)

My opponent left me hanging.  He asked if we could turn around three or four turns today, but then only sent one with no explanation and no indication that he wouldn't do others.  So I've been on pins and needles all day without any resolution.  It'll have to wait until tomorrow.



Canoerebel -> RE: Operation Shooting Star (2/5/2009 2:20:36 PM)

8/13/44
 
My opponent didn't leave me hanging; I misread his email.  He was actually with family, so my apologies.  I'm on edge due to uncertainties about the KB and John's plans.

Wake Island:  The units on the island (1050 AV) are now fully supplied and ordered to shock attack to coincide with the landings by the reinforcement troops (three more Army divisions and another Marine division, plus more armor, artillery, and HQ).  Two BB TFs will bombard, and the CVE torpedo bombers will strike the port and airfield.  John appears to have reinforced the island with two mixed brigades, but I was surprised he didn't mine the island and bring in a CD or artillery regiment.

CenPac:  Quiet at Iwo Jima.

NoPac:  The Sikhalin Island 4EB hit Toyama (27 resource hits), Ashigara (airfield), Sapporo (airfield), and Ominato (airfield and port, with three AKs and an AR hit).  No Jap aircraft buildup at the northern fields.  That weird little Jap transport TF is just south of the Kuriles, way out hostile territory for it, continuing to serve as bait or probing the Allied defenses.

SWPac:  Quiet.  Milne Bay is about 75% to level one airfield and port.

SEAC:  The Allies took Bien Hoa and both Allied armies will converge at Saigon beginning tomorrow. A few isolated Jap units are cut-off at interior bases, and two of these are what I think should be weak brigades.  I'll have to deal with them eventually, but first I want to find out how strong Saigon is.  The daily deliberate attack at Malacca came in at 19:1, and the adjusted AV of the Japanese defenses is down to 75, so in another week or so the Jap units should begin to surrender or vanish.  Then it's on to Johore Bharu.

China:  Quiet.

Points:  (A) 62,680 to (J) 55,506; Ratio:  1:12 to 1; Strategic Points:  10,068; Bases:  (A) 250 to (J) 249.



Canoerebel -> Reinforcing Wake Island (2/5/2009 6:06:30 PM)

8/14/44

Wake Island:  Following additional bombardments by two BB TFs, the Wake reinforcements began landing on the 14th.  Despite absence of mines and CD units, several days of bombings and bomardments, full prep, combat-loaded on mostly LSTs and LCIs, and presence of an amphibious force HQ, the going was fairly rough.  The attack came off at 1:1, dropped forts from 9 to 8, and cost the Japs 6k casualties to 5k for the Allies.  Landings will continue tomorrow, so I'll try one more shock attack before resting my troops awhile.  It looks like the Allies have enough to do the job this time, and there's no sign of the KB interfering.

CenPac:  Things remain quiet at Iwo Jima and Eniwetok.  Iwo PBY Liberators escorted by P-38s took a jab at CVL Ibuki at Nagasaki, but missed.  That's the first Jap carrier I've seen in weeks.  In his email, John referred to it as his "new toy," so I assume it's a just arrived reinforcement.  I wonder if it is heading somewhere to join the KB, or if the KB is coming this way (or is already here?).  I have no clue.

NoPac:  Weird little Jap transport TFs all over the western Kuriles.  Some fairly large sorties by Allied Hellcats and TBMs from Shikuka only scored one hit against one AK.  I really don't know what John is doing.  Perhaps a distraction, perhaps feeling out defenses in preparation for landings in the Kuriles, or perhaps something bigger.  Again, I'm pretty clueless.

SEAC:  Allied troops are on both sides of Saigon, but are moving slowly.  It may take another day or two for the first to arrive at Saigon.  Down at Malacca, the isolated Jap defender's AV fell to 65, so I think these units are on schedule to begin "disappaering" in about a week.



Canoerebel -> Wake: What a Difference a Day Makes (2/5/2009 9:18:54 PM)

8/15/42
 
Wake Island:  The unloading of men, material, and supplies continued.  After yesterday's bloody 1:1 shock attack only dropped forts from 9 to 8, and given the resluting high disruption levels to Allied troops, I wasn't expecting much.  But this attack came off at 8:1, dropped forts to 7, and inflicted 5.2k casualties to the Japs, and 4.6k to the Allies.  I'll try another shock attack tomorrow and I think there's a chance it might succeed.  The Jap defense has been tenacious, but perhaps the 5k casualties on day one left them very short of front-line troops.  IF Wake falls, the Allies regain the mobility lost in early June when I bogged down here.  The invasion armada includes two TFs loaded with troops prepped for other locales, and I would love to proceed to Eniwetok to refuel, and then move on to another strike.  We'll see.

CenPac:  Suddenly a hoste of Jap ships in port at Osaka/Kobe including three carriers.  This is no light situation - Osaka is within range of alot of Allied 4EB, so if John places ships there he's up to something.  But I'll just wait and see. 

NoPac:  John might expect a big effort to hit his ships at Osaka, but I'm trying to avoid the obvious, so I've instead scheduled a strike on Gumma.  4EB will hit the Frank, Zeke, and resource plants.  4EB at Shikuka that don't have the range will instead hit oil production in Changchun, Manchuria.  Still some Jap transport TFs waltzing around Hokkaido and the Kuriles for reasons known to John and those who read his AAR, but not to me.

SEAC:  The first troops have arrived at Saigon.  I forgot to order a probing bombardment, but I'll do so tomorrow while awaiting more units to arrive.  A Chinese unit took a vacant Ubon.  Status quo at Malacca and Johore Bharu.




Canoerebel -> Wake (finally) Falls (2/6/2009 12:55:58 AM)

8/16/44

Wake Island: The Allies shock-attacked for the third successive day, this time achieving 9:1 odds, overcoming seven forts, and taking the base. The Allies lost 2.3k troops, and the Japs 3.7k. A dozen Frances bombers sortied from Kwajalein, but all fell to the Hellcat CAP.

Japan: The Allied 4EB destined for Gumma failed to fly; those ordered to hit Changchun, Manchuria's oil facilities did so, but scored only two hits. I've shifted targets to Toyama's resources, heavy industry, and airfield tomorrow.

CenPac/NoPac: Quiet again as John's merry little fleet of transports finished their circumambulations in the North Pacific.

SEAC: B-24s from Hengchow hit the port facilities at Hong Kong again, doing damage to about eight transports. An Allied army 2000 AV strong has arrived at Saigon and will bombard tomorrow. An additional 900 AV is a day or two away. The isolated Jap army at Malacca continues to weaken and the end isn't far off.

Mobility Regained: Wake Island served as a 2.5-month speedbump (hat's off to John for making this a tough operation that bought the Japs time). Now that the island has fallen, I don't intend to lose my mobility again. For the foreseeable future, the Allies will hit lightly guarded targets (there seem to be plenty in CenPac, SoPac, and SWPac) or targets that are sufficiently remote that they won't require shepharding by Allied carriers. In a day or two I'll reload a sizeable part of the Wake troops and head elsewhere, first stopping at Eniwetok to handle reprovisioning.

Strategic Situation: Japanese positions in eastern CenPac, all of SoPac, and all of SWPac from Australia north and east are now essentially cut-off. I can't imagine that John would risk sending carriers out there when his path of retreat is narrow and subject to interdiction. So I don't think the Allies will be molested in campaigns against Suva, Pago Pago, and the Societies. Kwajalein and Truk appear heavily guarded, and I suspect the same holds true with Rabaul. I don't know if I'll bother with any of those. I think the Allied carrier fleet could raid deep into enemy territory, but I haven't decided whether I'll do so any time soon.

Operation Shooting Star: Wake has fallen, Saigon looks ripe for taking, and the Allies will soon have the Jap army in Malaya bottled up in Singapore. When that happens the Allies will embark on Operation Shooting Star, the last major offensive of 1944. It will be a huge effort to seize either Java, Borneo, Luzon, Formosa, Okinawa, or southern Japan. I won't reveal my plans until much later, but troops are already prepping.

Points: (A) 62,871 (J) 55,585; Spread: 1.13 to 1; Strategic Points: 10,068



paullus99 -> RE: Wake (finally) Falls (2/6/2009 1:27:43 AM)

Very nice - any chance of posting a map of the current front line?

John's got some tough decisions coming up - you've got quite a few carriers (though by the looks of things, so does he). If you hit someplace he has to defend, expect him to send in the kitchen sink.

Right now, he is staring the old "lose the war in an afternoon" situation in the face. If he sends in the KB & loses, that's the ballgame.



JeffroK -> RE: Wake (finally) Falls (2/6/2009 2:51:57 AM)

Well done!

Wake down, 250 bases to go....



Canoerebel -> Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 3:40:58 PM)

Strategic Map, August 17, 1944, immediately following the fall of Wake Island to Allied troops. The Allied bases at Wake, Eniwetok, and Ponape, plus the Allied forces in Australia (and advance troops building up Milne Bay) are pinching the Jap sea lanes to their vast eastern empire that includes the Solomons, Luganville, Fiji, Pago Pago, and the Societies.

As will be noted in a post to follow, the Japs will shortly lose Malacca (in Malaya) and Saigon (Vietnam). Allied aircraft already control the western South China Sea, and soon the Royal Navy will be able to cruise much of this sea.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/F81B4B66FD864AA9B53EE073C7022263.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 4:02:32 PM)

8/17/44
 
Wake Island:  The Allied troops bombarded today, inflcting 350 casualties.  The AV for each of the 16 Japanese units is "0", so it may not be as difficult as usual to eliminate the defenders.  The Allied carrier, combat, and transports are remaining on station at Wake to allow more supplies to unload.  Eventually, some of the empty transports will return to Midway, escorted half-way by the carriers, which will then meet and escort back to Wake additional supply and fuel transports.  A base force has unloaded and a P-38 squadron has moved here.

CenPac/NoPac:  Allied 4EB from Iwo and Sikhalin Island hit the airbase and resources (scoring 28) at Toyama.  The air battle over the city wasn't very intense, with both sides losing equal numbers in the teens.  Each day I expect to open the file and decide that it's time to swap my 4EB at these two bases for fighters in preparation for a Japanese attack; but each day the map looks okay - no massive buildup at forward Jap airbases.  Iwo is so close to Japan that John can launch a concerted surprise attack any time he wishes to, but I think he would want to bring aircraft forward to the northern Home Island bases before taking on Sikhalin Island's bases.  John can certainly achieve tactical surprise at Iwo, but I don't think he can at Sikhalin, nor can he achieve strategic surprise at either.

China:  121 B-29s from Changsha and Chungking hit Peking's heavy industry, scoring 37 hits.  This was the first raid on Peking.

SEAC:  Allied bombardment at Saigon shows this city very lightly held (to my surprise).  There are 2/3rds of two divisions, both with near zero AV, plus a handful of bases forces.  The bombardment showed a Jap AV of 184.  The Allies have over 2,000 AV there and will shock attack tomorrow.  The most recent Allied deliberate attack at Malacca came in at 135:1, with two Japanese units showing "surrounded."  The remaining two units should vanish within a few days.  Then it's on to Johore Bharu, and from there Singapore.

Strategic Situation:  The Japs have to strike soon, don't they?

Points:  (A) 63,113 (J) 55,582; Ratio: 1.13 to 1; Strategic Points:  10,242. 



vettim89 -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 6:11:35 PM)

I would think he has to do something. Many games that reach this point invariably boil down to the infamous "Final Decisive Battle". Quite frankly I am surprised it hasn't happened yet. I know this mod and I know P-47D and P-51D are looming on the horizon. It doesn't matter how many Jacks, Franks, and Shindens John builds if he is going to be equaled by Allied fighters. The further you move down the Malay penisula the harder it is going to be for John to get Oil/Resources out of the SRA. I know the effect of dealing with an enemy with a "Fleet in Being" an John has used this to mold your actions. That said, the situation is getting more an more like a sniper locked in a building. Sure he could kill a few passers by but now the SWAT team has surrounded the building.



veji1 -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 6:17:57 PM)

Once Malaya and Saigon are secured, wouldn't the most efficient campaign be to steamroll through China ? Why risk your fleet in Okinawa or so where John will have to stage a final combat when you could have so many bombers based in Shanghai ?



paullus99 -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 6:28:56 PM)

Some kind of joint pincer-like offensive would be perfect - part from the East & part from the West. Line the approaches (north & south) with subs for early warning & culling down of warships/convoys, and he's screwed.

He has probably mustered enough strength (and his lack of action/reaction to your recent moves means he is) to tackle one arm of your offensive, but if he splits to try to deal with both, again, he's screwed.



Canoerebel -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 6:40:57 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: veji1

Once Malaya and Saigon are secured, wouldn't the most efficient campaign be to steamroll through China ? Why risk your fleet in Okinawa or so where John will have to stage a final combat when you could have so many bombers based in Shanghai ?



Shhhh, veji1, don't let word of such a move get out....



Canoerebel -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 6:44:32 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vettim89

I would think he has to do something. Many games that reach this point invariably boil down to the infamous "Final Decisive Battle". Quite frankly I am surprised it hasn't happened yet. I know this mod and I know P-47D and P-51D are looming on the horizon. It doesn't matter how many Jacks, Franks, and Shindens John builds if he is going to be equaled by Allied fighters. The further you move down the Malay penisula the harder it is going to be for John to get Oil/Resources out of the SRA. I know the effect of dealing with an enemy with a "Fleet in Being" an John has used this to mold your actions. That said, the situation is getting more an more like a sniper locked in a building. Sure he could kill a few passers by but now the SWAT team has surrounded the building.


You're right. I have alot of P-47Ds now - squadrons at Iwo, Tori Shima, and a bunch on Sikhalin Island. No American P-51s yet (only Chinese squadrons), but they're coming soon.

I can feel something going on with the Japanese, but I don't know what. Maybe he's waiting for me to step into his parlor before striking.

I think my evaluation of Sikhalin Island was right - it is indeed the key to the game. John should have thrown everything he had at me back in late '43 or early '44, or mid '44, or now, but I think now is too late. Even with 750 transports carrying fifteen divisions I'm not sure he could take either of the two bases. Too many mines, American battleships, and aircraft. Edited to add: But that's what I would do.



Canoerebel -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 6:48:20 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Some kind of joint pincer-like offensive would be perfect - part from the East & part from the West. Line the approaches (north & south) with subs for early warning & culling down of warships/convoys, and he's screwed.

He has probably mustered enough strength (and his lack of action/reaction to your recent moves means he is) to tackle one arm of your offensive, but if he splits to try to deal with both, again, he's screwed.


Before we enter the final phase of the game - say a massive Allied move into the heart of Japanese territory (Philippines, Okinawa, Home Island), I have alot of "cleaning up" to do. I need to take care of a bunch of bases like Port Moresby, Luganville, and points east and I need to wrap up things in SEAC. So if John's waiting for the Allies to make a move into his "lair" so that he can pounce with everything he has, he'll have to wait a long time.



FeurerKrieg -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 6:55:11 PM)

Why do you need to clean up? I'm not sure how either of you view victory, but for me (as Japan) I feel I have done better the longer the war lasts. The sooner you end it the better.

Given your situation in SE Asia, I don't see why you don't just steamroll across the south China coast to Shanghai as V mentioned about. Low risk and high reward. All along the way those coastal bases can base twin engined bombers that will pretty much cut off the DEI and Japan's economy is bound to shut down at some point - you won't even have to bother with bombing the actual resource and oil centers because no ships can get through. Pile up subs south of Borneo and the Philippines to catch anything he tries to send in that direction.

China just seems like such an obvious move - is there something we're missing that you can see that we don't? Like supplies or something? If that is the problem, you have air dominance now and should be able to ship in lots of supplies past Singapore.



Canoerebel -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 7:18:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Why do you need to clean up? I'm not sure how either of you view victory, but for me (as Japan) I feel I have done better the longer the war lasts. The sooner you end it the better.

Given your situation in SE Asia, I don't see why you don't just steamroll across the south China coast to Shanghai as V mentioned about. Low risk and high reward. All along the way those coastal bases can base twin engined bombers that will pretty much cut off the DEI and Japan's economy is bound to shut down at some point - you won't even have to bother with bombing the actual resource and oil centers because no ships can get through. Pile up subs south of Borneo and the Philippines to catch anything he tries to send in that direction.

China just seems like such an obvious move - is there something we're missing that you can see that we don't? Like supplies or something? If that is the problem, you have air dominance now and should be able to ship in lots of supplies past Singapore.


It is obvious, and that's my plan. Operation Shooting Star has been focued on China from the outset, though I mentioned other targets as part of a misinformation campaign (bad things have happened in this game when I've discussed my plans in detail).

Yes, the British and Chinese will hit the China coast with the objective of taking bases within good range of southern Japan, Okinawa, and Formosa. This will commence as soon as SEAC is secure, which may just be a few days away. I'll need time to round up troops, transports, supplies, and to prep, but I'm banking on some bases being lightly held.

Thos of you who read both AARs - please don't breath a word of this to John; even something unintentional like: "Hey, how are your China coast defenses?"

But I disagree with you in one respect, Fuerer. This is a good time to mop up some areas. John remains strong and I'd rather bleed him (through attritional fighting and lots of strategic bombing) before I take on his combined fleet somewhere in his territory. So for awhile the Allies can take a bit of a breather by prepping, getting aicraft and ships in top working condition (alot of my ships are due for mid-1943 upgrades!), and by taking care of some remote Japanese bases that are conceivably threats to my line of supply. Besides, it would be kinda embarrassing for the Japs to hold the Societies, Fiji, Luganville, etc. at the end of the game.



FeurerKrieg -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 7:28:20 PM)

Yes, we disagree. [:)]

As Allies, I would not waste any time or resources on places like Fiji, Societies, etc when I already have Saigon, Iwo Jima and Sakhalin.

But hey - to each their own!




Mike Solli -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 7:36:12 PM)

I'm a JFB, but I'd have to agree with Feurer Krieg here.  Why waste manpower and time taking bases when you can just cut them off and use them for training your air force while they starve?  It'll be interesting to see how your plan works out. [sm=00000613.gif]



Canoerebel -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 7:48:45 PM)

I won't get involved in any major campaigns over remote islands, but I'm assuming (I haven't done recon yet) that many of these bases are lightly held, ripe for the plucking.  While this is going on, the Britsh and Chinese will be moving to take Chinese cities.  In CenPac and SWPac, the Americans and Australians will be moving to pick up iimportant bases that bring those two closer to the DEI and Philippines.  Accomplish these objectives and then, if the Japs are still fighting, the four allies can combine to take the final battle to Japan or vicinity.  None of these activities will be delayed by my efforts elsewhere to do some house cleaning; plus I do need time to upgrade ships, etc., before committing my fleet to a major action; plus the soonest I can win the game is 1/1/45 (by acheiving 2x points if memory serves).   So there are many things to be gained by waiting before sending the combined Allied fleet into Japanese homewaters or Japanese dominated waters. 




paullus99 -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/6/2009 10:24:32 PM)

You've also really taken it on the chin with AP/AK losses though, right? How's your general shipping situation holding out?

While I agree with picking up some of the "low hanging fruit" - especially as a means of goading him into some kind of action which could allow you to whittle down his carrier force. If you can locate his current anchorage (someplace that is readily accessible to fuel sources, I would bet) & start flooding the area with subs, you might get lucky.

Otherwise, keep up the good work & writing. Can't wait to see what happens.



Canoerebel -> RE: Strategic Map - August 17, 1944 (2/7/2009 3:23:30 AM)

8/18/44 and 8/19/44
 
The Japanese position - at least its old, strong perimeter - is completely collapsing.  Thoughts at the end about what this means.

SEAC:  Saigon falls easily to an Allied assault on the 18th despite 7 forts.  The Japanese defenders suffer 10,000 casualties and retreat to the port city due south.  The Allies will chase them down while also cornering and eliminating the other small army at Siem Riep.  For all intents and purposes, the Japanese are now gone from Vietnam, Siam, Burma, and all of Malaya except two bases at the southern tip.  The final Jap units at Malacca were wiped out on the 19th.  Allied units at Malacca are now ready for new orders:  depleted units will either head to Georgetown (and thence Rangoon) to rehabilitate, a few units will garrison Malacca, and the rest will prep for either Johore Bharu or Singapore.

China:  Quiet here.  B-24s continue to hit Hong Kong and a B-25 group from Chungking has been hitting a Mixed Brigade in open terrain.

NoPac:  The Sikhalin Island 4EB hits airfields at Sapporo and Ashigara on the 18th, again just making clear the Allies aren't ignoring the threat from this quarter.  But I'm beginning to think that John doesn't plan any major invasions or strikes against Sikhalin.

CenPac:  Fourteen Japanese units on Wake Island evaporated due to "attrition" on the 19th.  I can't account for the sudden and total collapse of defenses - compare this to the bitter, drawn-out Jap defense of Malcca that lasted for months.  Allied units are already prepping for new targets.  The carriers and some empty transport TFs will head toward Midway, where loaded transport TFs will sally forth to meet the carriers halfway; then the combined TFs will return to Wake, pick up the units destined for new missions, and move out.

SWPac:  A deliberate attack at Koumac on the 19th came in at 4:1 and dropped forts to zero.  (I've seen the combat report for the 20th and the Allies seized Koumac).  Troops and ships are making arrangements to move out as soon as the big CenPac force comes south from Midway and Wake.

Points:  (A) 63,715 (J) 55,595; Ratio:  1.14 to 1.

Strategic Analysis:  While John has known for a long time that his SEAC position was crumbling, I didn't know just how bad things were until I discovered that his Saigon defenses were smoke and mirrors.  I think the Japs have indeed pulled back to well-prepared positions along what John refers to as his "inner perimeter."  The optimal time for John to launch a counteroffensive came while the American carriers were tied down at Wake; that he didn't attack suggests that he has decided to remain on the defensive and not take big chances.  Accordingly, I have reduced the threat-level at Iwo, Sikhalin Island, SWPac, and Malaya/Sumatra.  Of course, John could change his mind at any time and sally forth, but I don't think he will in the short term.  So the Allies will proceed to consolidate their position in CenPac and SWPac, probe west toward western New Guinea and Celebes, reduce Singapore, and continue preparations to shift the offensive to China (or some other likely location in the western theaters.

Strategy:  Pallaus, yes, I've taken very heavy losses in transports throughout the game.  First when John trapped several hundred around Melbourne (they couldn't escape due to the map edge), then the massive invasion of Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island, and then other costly campaigns like Sumatra and Wake Island.  As I noted when the Allies invaded Hokkaido in late 1943, taking horrendous losses, the whole idea was to seize powerful forward bases then - when I had the element of surprise - so that I could avoid doing so in 1944 when I'd be expected.  The goal was to allow the Allies to subjugate the Japs without further costly, enormous, hard-fought invasions.  Right now the only chance John has is to engage in a massive carrier battle on odds as close to even as possible.  I don't want to play to his strong suite; the Allies have acheived an excellent position and can now take advantage of it.  Let the enemy come to us! 



Canoerebel -> Operation Shooting Star (2/9/2009 2:27:49 PM)

8/20/44 to 8/22/44
 
The Allies are reorganizing and repositioning troops for the next moves.
 
Operation Shooting Star:  This will likely involve simultaenous amphibious assault and land offensive against Japanese positions in coastal China (though the Allies could shift objectives to Philippines, Formosa, Borneo, or Java should a need or opportunity arise).  Troops are prepping and getting in position and this will take awhile because some are quite distant, and because I want to force the Jap army at Johore Bharu back to Singapore, which I think will happen soon (forts fell to six during a 1:1 deliberate attack on the 20th).

SEAC:  The Allies continue mopping up operations in Vietnam and Cambodia.  One cut-off Japanese army consists of two brigades now moving on Battambang (held by Allies) and it may take a little time and effort to wipe them out.  But SEAC is Allied territory except for Singapore and Johore Bharu.

China:  B-29s and B-25s from Chungking and Changsha hit the Jap airfield at Ichang, destroying a few aircraft on the ground.

Japan:  Two sizeable 4EB raids, one against Tokyo and the other against Akita, didn't accomplish anything and faced stiff fighter opposition.  The Allies lost more aicraft than the Japs during these two raids.  Tomorrow the Allies will try their second concerted raid against Harbrin, Manchuria, targeting Frank factory, oil, and resources.  This is out of range of my fighters, and John bristled when I hit it the first time two or three weeks ago, so it will probably be a bloody affair.

NoPac:  The Allies continue mop-up opeations at Dutch Harbor and the Japanese still hold Cold Bay.  But the Aleutians are now primarily engaged in supply matters and serving as rear aircraft bases.  I can easily move aircraft forward to the Kuriles, Sikhalin Island, Iwo, and even China from these bases.  No sign of hostile Japanese acivity.  However, John is now putting up CAP as far north as Akita, which is a change.


CenPac:  The Allies wiped out the last opposition at Wake Island (the total collapse of these defenses still puzzles me).  The carriers escorted some empty transports part of the way back to Midway, and met some reinforcement and supply convoys enroute from Midway.  These ships will move to Wake and Eniwetok, and from there the Allies will mount further amphibious assaults in what I think are a lightly defended region.  The Wake Island amphbious units suffered about 50% disurption and disorganization, so it will take a few weeks for them to recover.  I already have them prepping for distant bases, but I'm not sure yet which I want to take on - Rabaul, Truk, Palau are possibilities, but only if they appear under-garrisoned.

SWPac:  ANZAC forces are ready to move north as soon as the CenPac forces move south from Eniwetok.  Milne Bay will reach level one airfield/port within two days.

KB:  No sign of it.




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