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Canoerebel -> Sheesh! (2/16/2009 4:00:55 PM)
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9/7/44 and 9/8/44
Sheesh!: My opponent sent a lengthy email describing his view on events in the game. He began by complimenting the Allied campaign in SEAC, but then threw in a gratuitous insult: "The whole attack into this area was magnificent. Using the Amphib to get around my flanks was well done and executed. The problem is that you don't know when to take a big risk and go for the throat. I should have lost all that territory 4-5 months ago."
Thanks, John.
From my perspective, John never should've pulled out of Malaya - I believe he could have kept an army present for at least another three or four months (finally making a last stand at Singapore like his isolated troops did at Malacca for so long). Now that I have Singapore most of his resource centers are within range of Allied bombers, plus the Royal Navy and Allied transports are able to move about in the South China Sea, plus I have about 5000 AV that can begin prepping for new targets. There's also the prospect of the British and Americans meeting up somewhere in the middle, like Philippines or Formosa. Had John contested the ground in Malaya vigorously, I think he could have postponed facing this dilemma for months. It would have cost him an army, but in WitP: Japanese squads are "cheap points" and can be expended to buy time and save critical territory.
SEAC: All Japanese resistance in mainland SEAC vanished on the 8th, with the Japanese remnants at Siem Riep and Singapore evaporating. The airfield at Singapore (currently a 6 that will be built up to 9) is fully operational now, and the RN moves here from Johore Bharu tonight. 200 fighters and 100 bombers are based here, now, with vice-versa at Johore. The massive Allied army at Singapore has already begun prepping for new targets. I think the Japanese are pulling out of eastern Sumatra, including Palembang, but I'm not positive yet. Three Indian divisions and a British division are prepping for Palembang, and smaller units for adjacent bases and the little island bases east of Singapore.
Operation Shooting Star: Preliminary aspects of the massive Allied amphibious and land-operations are underway. 50th Indian Paratroops opened the campaign by seizing a lightly occupied Kiungshian, the base at the northern tip of Hainan Island (this was Operation Dandelion, an impromptu and successful coup de main). Transports will carry reinforcements to this base to allow the Allies to take the lightly-garrisoned southern city (Samah). These can be built into large air bases that are proximate to Hong Kong and Formosa. Massed Chinese armies are prepping for Canton and other coastal Chinese cities, but won't advance for a little longer (with the exception of one element that will advance from Hengchow toward Canton, thus posing a threat to the flank of the Japs units at Kanhsien). British troops and their Allies are gathering at "good" bases like Saigon and prepping for Hong Kong.
Operation Blazing Star: The massive Allied carrier and transport armada lately recalled from an invasion of the Solomons is now approaching Wake Island; there it will drop off some ships, pick up others, and head for Midway. This force may (may) coordinate with Operation Shooting Star, either by posing as a diversion (sailing west from Iwo to threaten Formosa), thus hopefully preventing the Japs from giving full attention to the British and Chinese hitting the China coast. But the Americans will bring along a full compliment of troops prepping for Formosa. That way, if things go so well in China that the Allies take and build up airbases on the coast within range of Formosa, the American forces can hit the beaches. The primary purpose of Blazing Star is to serve as a diversion, but it will be able to react to an opportunity if one should arise.
Operation Dont Fight the War the Way the Enemy Expects You To: Another John comment: "While your LBA is massive and frightening, you now have to stage seaborne invasions of you next major target. I have enough air and naval to make that costly. Should be interesting to watch and see how it plays out." John probably envisions a major Allied invasion of DEI, Philippines, etc., in which the Allies will have to steam out from under the cover of LBA and fight on his home court. I won't do that, patly because I already did it (Hokkaido/Sikhalin Island) so that I wouldn't have to do it now, but also because I think Shooting Star is safer and accomplishes the same objective - choking off Japan from the DEI. (One of the pleasures in this game has been using flanking movements to rattle the enemy, to take lightly garrisoned and fortified bases, and then, after the enemy has been forced to withdraw from where he thought the attack would come, taking the vacant or nearly vacant bases with level 9 forts that he abandoned.)
Another Interesting Observation: John: "This theme of not going for the jugular can also be used in the Central/North Pacific. I lost the war when you grabbed Iwo Jima. You and I both know that wasn't your true target; however, it was taken and life became very scary for Japan. At that point Okinawa and Formosa were ripe for the picking. My supply line to the DEI would have been cut and life for the Empire would have been ended." So, the Iwo Jima invasion wins the war for the Allies, but it wasn't successful enough in his eyes?
Reply to John: In my reply to John, I told him that I thought he had made a fundamental mistake in his analysis of the game: "It's really interestinng to read your analysis, but I think you may have fallen into the trap of seeing your weaknesses, assuming I can see them too, and forgetting that I have problems of my own. (And you'll think the same of my analysis when you read my take on these things)." He thinks I failed to go for the jugular? What about him? The Hokkaido invasion had fallen apart after the KB eliminated all American strike aircraft and hammered the troop transports. All John had to do to win the game was to interdict my almost defenseless transports as they unloaded at Hakodate, Sapporo, Toyohara, and Shikuka. For some reason he refused to commit his combat ships into the fray (I had assumed he would do so, which is why I sacrificed BB North Carolina in a desperate effort to protect my transports unloading at Hakodate). But the biggest mystery is why he didn't commit the KB to strike the American carriers once they had no chance of hitting back. Instead he backed off and then ****-footed around while dispersing his carriers, a move that cost him dearly. John should have won the war at Hokkaido, but that's where he actually lost it.
Japan: Toyohara's 4EB hit Hokkaido targets on thge 7th and are to hit Aomori tomorrow. On the 8th, 174 unescorted B-29s hit Kyoto, downing three Tonys and losing four bombers; the survivoring bombers damaged 15 resources, 13 heavy industry, 15 George points, and 9 Randy points.
CenPac/SWPac: The Allies took an unoccupied Canton Island (which had 9 forts) on the 8th, and will now scout Baker Island. I think my hunch about Jap carriers was right - recon shows three at Lunga. So for now I'm scaling back operations as I don't have the resources to protect my ships without taking chances I don't want to take. I have a carrier force that I could commit to this region, but it is woefully low on fuel. Australia is still feeling the supply/fuel effects of being isolated for so long.
Points: (A) 69,479 (J) 55,880; Ratio: 1:24 to 1; Strategic Points: 11,186.
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