RE: Flaming Tori Shima (Full Version)

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JeffroK -> RE: Flaming Tori Shima (2/18/2009 11:53:14 PM)

Big B your right, though I thought early 42 a bit too early.

By making the japanese fight for a needed target, in your case the DEI & its Oil & Resources, you can attack his weak points (pilot pools here).

While strong japanese players might call your hand and push you out, you still have forced him to move to a different timetable and be more careful in his movements.

Back to the AAR, when's the next turn out.......



Big B -> RE: Flaming Tori Shima (2/19/2009 12:12:26 AM)

Hi JeffK,

You know - I didn't mean to distract from this CLASSIC AAR, it's just that as one who always believed in what others call a form of the "Sir Robin" defense, I wanted to share that (at least in this mod) you can't go wrong with picking a strong defensive position(well supplied and with support) - and nailing your flag to it. The USN Big 5 CV's are an equal match to the IJN "KB" - add the RN CV's and the "baby KB" is also checked. Equal numbers of good fighters like P40E's can stand toe to toe with Zeros (given a replacement pool that's not empty) - unlike stock.
And defend places like Singapore and Bataan - that have Huge coast defense guns, so they won't be able to bombard your airfields.
The Japanese really aren't 10 feet tall, and if done intelligently (and an average amount of luck), daring on the Allied part pays huge dividends - by mid 1942 you can call the tune and realistically finish the war early (then "on to Berlin"...or would that be Moscow?)

Anyway, back to this excellent AAR.[8D]


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Big B your right, though I thought early 42 a bit too early.

By making the japanese fight for a needed target, in your case the DEI & its Oil & Resources, you can attack his weak points (pilot pools here).

While strong japanese players might call your hand and push you out, you still have forced him to move to a different timetable and be more careful in his movements.

Back to the AAR, when's the next turn out.......




vettim89 -> RE: Flaming Tori Shima (2/19/2009 1:51:23 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Vettim is dead-right about the odd nature of the game.  Because of the narrow focus, and because John is by nature conservative with his aircraft, I think his pilot pool remains high quality, and he still has alot of aircraft.  And this is as it should be given the peculiar course taken in our game.

One thing, though, Vettim.  In '43 I think the Allies should only take on the Japs when they know the odds will be favorable (IE, a lightly defended area or a surprise attack).  I wouldn't go hunting for the main body of the Japs until '44.  In '43, the two sides are still fairly even.  In '44, the Allies have a marked advantage.  Don't commit to a huge battle until the odds favor you.


I both agree and disagree here. In RL, the Allies started 1943 finishing up two brutal campaigns at GC and Buna/Goa. By the end of the year they had marched up the Solomons and taken the Huon Penisula in NG. Also, they had taken the Gilberts late in the year. In 1944, they swept halfway across the ocean ending the year with the Marianas, Carolines, Marshalls, and finally the Central PI in hand. What happened in 1943 was not just modest advancement but near complete destruction of Japanese airpower because the Japanese fought tooth and nail in the SoPac thus dissapating their strength. So while the Allies may be safer to hit lightly defended targets in 1943, they are better served hitting the Japanese in places where they have to fight. People criticized me for going for Tarawa a year ahead of the historical schedule in my AAR. I had no choice. Larry wouldn't fight me in the SoPac. I had to find somewhere he felt was important enough to fight over. Dan was faced with a different problem: John had pushed so hard that Dan knew he could not win the war with a historical approach. He would have run out of time following the more cautious approach



JeffroK -> RE: Flaming Tori Shima (2/19/2009 2:39:33 AM)

Sorry Big B,

I was only wishing that these guys could pump out 20-30 turns a day so that we could get more action.

Your comments are very valueable.

As you say, Sir Robin really is a retreat to a decent position, not an all out scarper. Too many JFB complain about it, IMHO, because it takes away the innocents from in front of their steamroller.




Canoerebel -> Taking the War to the Enemy (2/19/2009 2:44:49 PM)

9/14/44 to 9/16/44
 
The Allies continue to move troops and material around in preparation for something...something big, although I'm still not quite sure how this will all shake out.

SEAC:  The Japanese put up CAP over Palembang on the 16th, the Japs losing 54 fighters and the Allies 27 fighters and bombers.  This was a change as prior raids over the course of weeks had gone uncontested.  The Allies took the island of Singyep, east of Singapore, on the 13th.  Troops and ships continue to gather at Singapore - some prepped for Palembang, some prepped for Swatow on the China coast.

China:  Massive troops movements continue as Allied armies concentrate at Wuchow, Changsha, and Honan for eventual moves on Canton, Nanchang, and Singyang.  It will take another week to ten days for sufficient forces to be in place to move (I'm particulary awaiting arrival at Wuchow of 2nd UK Division, which is currently at Hue).  Troops prepping for Swatow and Hong Kong are gathering at Singapore, Saigon, and Haiphong.  I'm still not sure I have enough transports to carry enough troops to make good either amphibious operation, but I'm trying.

Japan:  A quiet three days in Japan, Iwo/Tori, and Sikhalin Island.  The only raid was by B-17s and B-24s against already demolished Akita.  The the morale of the B-29 groups is nearly recovered from the last raid over Tokyo.   Chichi Jima's airfield went to level one on the 16th, permitting me to move two SBD squadrons out of Iwo to be replaced by another P-38L squadron from Shikuka.  The combined fighter presence at Iwo and Tori is impressive now - something like 350 fighters.  Any Japanese raid would get chewed up unless John got lucky and hit me on a day where alot of my fighters were employed in a sweep.

CenPac:  The American carrier TFs are about 300 miles SW of Midway, moving slowly WNW while awaiting arrival of the additional supply and troop transports from Midway.

Points:  (A) 70,444 to (J) 56,128; Ratio: 1.25 to 1; Strategic Points:  11,390.



Canoerebel -> RE: Taking the War to the Enemy (2/20/2009 10:01:05 AM)

9/17/44 to 9/21/44

China: Samah fell on the 21st; so Indian paratroops transported by American Dakotas liberated a Chinese island. There are two good airfields on the island, but both are currently just level three. I'll build them up as fast as possible, but at least the base at the northern tip will be able to handle P-38s for LRCAP when the Allies hit the Chinese coast. 2nd UK Division has reached Hanoi, and should arrive at Wuchow in about a week. So that should be the real kick-off date for Operation Shooting Star. Troops east of Honan are already moving on Sinyang, but it will be a few more days before they leave the hex they've occupied since early '42. Scores of Allied bombers re-based to Camranh Bay, Pakhoi, Wuchow, and other bases in eastern China. On the 21st, they all flew raids, thus creating alot of noise and probably making it clear (if it wasn't already) that the Allies have serious intentions in this region. The land component will be complimented by an amphibious assault of either Swatow or Hong Kong. Both are occupied by only two Japanese units, but I prefer the latter as it will threaten Canton and is within easy LRCAP range of a bunch of Allied air bases. On the 17th, 187 B-29s from Changsha hit Baguio, Philippines, destroying 39 resources.

SEAC: Allied bombers also hit Palembang in large numbers on the 21st along with increased recon flights of many bases in the region. In a day or two, a small amphibious force will head from Singapore to Merak, a base on the wesern tip of the island just off Palembang. John is always worried about the DEI, so I hope I can create enough "noise" here to make him think this is where the Allies are headed next. An army is prepping for Palembang, but first I intend to use all available transports for the China operation. On the 19th, 15 B-29s from Singapore, which just went to level seven airfield, flew an unescorted raid against Balikpan and scored 10 oil hits. PBY Liberators from Sing have also hit shipping around Batavia.

NoPac: A major Allied raid against Tokyo on the 18th wasn't as effective as I had hoped. I had ordered sweeps by fighters from both Tori and Iwo, but only the Tori's planes flew. 73 Allied P-47Ds and P-38Js faced 154 Japanese Jacks, Georges, and Franks. The Allies lost 33 aircraft and the Japanese 66. Then 206 B-29s hits the Ohka and Jack factories and resources, doing fairly light damage. The Allies lost 10 bombers and the Japs 10 fighters. A smaller raid by unescorted B-17s against Sendai was a failure as the Allies lost 14 bombers (the much larger contingent of 4EB from Toyohara failed didn't fly), but did the following day against Harbin, where they concentrated on the Frank factor with decent results.

CenPac: Several dozen TFs rendezvoued about 300 miles west of Midway; while they were doing so, most of the carrier and combat TFs sprinted back to Midway to refuel, which was a real help as most were getting very low. They've now rejoined the transports and the vast armada will continue slowly west towards Iwo. Events will dictate the mission: I'll either create an elaborate hoax invasion to threaten Okinawa or Formosa (in coordination with the amphibious invaison of Hong Kong/Swatow, or, if an opportunity arises, might actually proceed with an invasion. The amount of troops and supplies carried is vast, including at least two Marine divisions, three Army divisions, thee RCT, several CDs, plenty of HQ, artillery, and armor, and lots of engineers and base forces. Most of these are fresh from the Wake Island campaign and could use some time in Iwo to recover from disruption. If this force doesn't invade in the short term, I'll drop them off at Iwo - with perhap a couple of RCTs allocated to Tori and Chichi to bolster those garrisons.

SWPac: I've halted pretty much everything down this way, content to see what happens elsewhere before commiting to any further operations. I get the distinct feeling that John had anticipated something happening down this way, and had a clash or ambush planned. I don't want to blunder into a Mini-KB or something stronger with unescorted troop ships, so I won't take any chances until I see if John commits the KB elsewhere as things develop in DEI, China, and the Okinawa/Iwo regions. I've recently picked off unocuppied Baker and Canton Islands, and hope to find more easy plums to pick; but the bigger bases like Suva, Pago Pago, and the Societies will have to wait awhile. I have a pretty good carrier force in SWPac, but fuel is low and I don't want to disclose my plans for this force.

The Japs: John has done a great job of masking his intentions and concealing the KB; he surely knows I have serious intentions in China, but I hope he thinks I'm also about to move on Palembang. I'm bad at guessing, but logic tells me he's probably torn between posting the KB in a place where it can move to meet the American carriers, or to protect the DEI. I don't think he can come close to China do to Allied LBA, so I feel pretty good about committing Allied ships into the north South China Sea. My strategy remains to make the Japs come and fight me on ground of my choosing, rather than vice versa. I think I can do it.



paullus99 -> RE: Taking the War to the Enemy (2/20/2009 11:21:41 AM)

Quick question - has your Signit helped at all trying to determine where the KB might be? I've always been curious if any of the information gleamed has been valuable in determining intentions.



tocaff -> RE: Taking the War to the Enemy (2/20/2009 11:31:00 AM)

What makes you think that John will fight you on your terms now?  He's spent the entire war avoiding this very thing and his fangs are still sharp.  



Canoerebel -> RE: Allies Defeated at Baguio, PI (2/20/2009 12:37:37 PM)

Paullus:  No help from SigInt at all.  I have had a few carrier sightings over the past month or so:  (1) One or two hanging around Japan (could by damaged Soryu or Unyo), some around Lunga (and a Judy around Luganville might be the same thing) that I think were part of the KB or a Mini-KB, and some carrier sighting in the straits between Borneo and Celebes (could be CVEs escorting convoys, or could be the real thing).  John doesn't have any good, hidden, safe ports left to park the KB.  Nearly every port is within range of B-29s.  So I think he may be shuffling them around.  Surely he doesn't have them hidden somewhere like Society Islands, where they wouldn't be any good to him.

Tocaff:  Because I don't have to come to him.  He's still very strong in carriers and carrier air, but he's got to come out and fight.  I can choke off DEI by taking coastal China, because LBA from there and Iwo would then control the sea lanes (plus my carriers would have easy access to those sea lanes then).  That plus strategic bombing should allow the Allies to strangle Japan without setting foot in DEI or Philippines.  That's been my plan since I invaded Hokkaido nearly a year ago.  He's gonna have to come out and fight if he doesn't want (1) the Allies to take Coastal China bases; (2) choke off DEI; and (3) eventually be able to pin the KB down and hit it from long range. 



String -> RE: Allies Defeated at Baguio, PI (2/20/2009 12:58:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Paullus:  No help from SigInt at all.  I have had a few carrier sightings over the past month or so:  (1) One or two hanging around Japan (could by damaged Soryu or Unyo), some around Lunga (and a Judy around Luganville might be the same thing) that I think were part of the KB or a Mini-KB, and some carrier sighting in the straits between Borneo and Celebes (could be CVEs escorting convoys, or could be the real thing).  John doesn't have any good, hidden, safe ports left to park the KB.  Nearly every port is within range of B-29s.  So I think he may be shuffling them around.  Surely he doesn't have them hidden somewhere like Society Islands, where they wouldn't be any good to him.

Tocaff:  Because I don't have to come to him.  He's still very strong in carriers and carrier air, but he's got to come out and fight.  I can choke off DEI by taking coastal China, because LBA from there and Iwo would then control the sea lanes (plus my carriers would have easy access to those sea lanes then).  That plus strategic bombing should allow the Allies to strangle Japan without setting foot in DEI or Philippines.  That's been my plan since I invaded Hokkaido nearly a year ago.  He's gonna have to come out and fight if he doesn't want (1) the Allies to take Coastal China bases; (2) choke off DEI; and (3) eventually be able to pin the KB down and hit it from long range. 


Do you have any smaller groups of B29's that you can split up and use for recon?



paullus99 -> RE: Allies Defeated at Baguio, PI (2/20/2009 1:57:01 PM)

Well, if he's not moving them around as much, it would make sense not to get a lot of chatter (historically, when ships were docked, they typically used landlines for communication).




Canoerebel -> Operation Shooting Star (2/20/2009 2:27:41 PM)

String: Good idea!  I have two B-29 groups (one of 12 planes at Auckland and one of 64 at Townsville) that are available.  I've moved them to Darwin where there are two other groups. I'll try some recon of Palau and Soerabaja.  If John isn't keeping the KB on the move, about the only port that makes sense to me is Palau.

Update:  It's a logistical challenge to coordinate all the troops, supplies, and machines needed for Operation Shooting Star plus diversions.  But it's beginning to come together.

CenPac Element:  The Allied armada in CenPac is on the way to Iwo, ETA probably eight days.

Shooting Star Amphbious:  The troops prepping for Swatow (coastal China) are in Singapore and began loading today.  I think I have enough ships to load all six units totaling about 1200 AV.  I intend to invade Hong Kong first, so I'll take the Swatow troops to Haiphong, drop them off, and pick up the Hong Kong-prepped troops there.  Before these ships leave Singapore, though, I may make a demonstration toward Palembang just to see if John reacts.  I was wrong about the airfields on Hainan Island - Samah (southern tip) is a 2 and Kiangshian is just a 1.  Both can be built to about level 6, but it's going to take some time. 

Shooting Star Land Phase:  The Chinese Army advancing on Singyang will move out of the hex they've occupied for months in two days, taking position one hex from Singyang, which is held by only two units.  This move will threaten that base plus Ichang's rear.  At the same time, an army will advance out of Changsha toward Nanchang, threating both that city and the flank of Kanhsien.  So over the next three days the Japanese will get an eye-full in China.  As for the Canton-bound army, units remain strung out from Bangkok to Wuchow.  2nd UK Division is in Hanoi and I'm awaiting it's arrival before advancing out of Wuchow toward Canton.  At that point the Chinese army should be about 8,000 AV, and the Hong Kong invasion force should be arriving at that same time.



Canoerebel -> Moving into Harm's Way (2/20/2009 9:33:02 PM)

9/22/44 and 9/23/44
 
Operation Shooting Star:  The Allies have had some battleships and light/escort carriers parked at Singapore for awhile.  I'm not worried about them drawing a combat TF, because John is woefully low on battleships, but I have been somewhat concerned about the KB arriving with enough aircraft to overwhelm the 200 fighters on CAP.  My ships are moving out tonight, so were the KB to suddenly appear now, I'd be in for a real hurt - I'll have perhaps 100 fighters on LRCAP from Singapore and another 50 to 60 from the carriers, but that's not enough protection.  Nevertheless, it's time to move out.   My ships will rendezvous two hexes east of Singapore, where I hope John will become concerned that they could be moving toward Palembang or southwestern Borneo.  Day after tomorrow, though, they change course radicallly to move up the western side of the South China Sea, under cover of LRCAP.  These transports will eventually carry the troops that will land at Hong Kong (or possibly Swatow, the secondary target).  Over these two days, big bomber raids hit Palembang and I continued to switch assignments of about eight recon squadrons.

China Component:  One China army moved adjacent to Sinyang and will now proceed into the hex.  A second army has advanced one hex out of Changsha toward Nanchang.  I'm interested in seeing if these moves prompt John to pull back those of his units that face isolation or if instead he plans to fight.  Both of these moves are demonstrations only, although I think Singyang isn't strongly defended, so I might be able to take it.

American Shooting Star Force:  The American armada is a good 600 to 800 miles WNW of Midway now on a heading for Iwo Jima.  By the time the British transports unload at Haiphong and take on the Hong Kong-prepped units, the Americans should be in a position to join in an attack or to serve as a major diversionary force.

NoPac/CenPac:  Quiet except for one fighter sweep from Tori over Toyama, the Japs losing 35 fighters to 6 for the Allies.  The B-29 groups failed to complete their mission to Toyama, however.  After a terribly long and bitter defense of Dutch Harbor, the Japanese garrison ceased to exist on the 23rd.  The two American divisions there will now prep for Cold Bay, the final Japanese base in NoPac.

SWPac:  Quiet.

Searching for the KB:  Per String's suggestion, I've used to B-29 groups at Darwin for recon/naval search of bases like Davao, Palau, Yap, and Soerabaja.  No sign of the KB.  I cannot figure out where John's carriers might be.  It's fun hunting, though, and they can't hide forever.  Maybe they are in the Java Sea steaming in circles incurring SYS damage. (P.S. Please don't offer suggestions as to the KB's location.  If soembody guessed right, John might wonder if that person had been reading his AAR).

Points:  (A) 71,214 (J) 56,324; Ratio:  1:26 to 1; Strategic:  11,430.



paullus99 -> RE: Moving into Harm's Way (2/20/2009 9:39:33 PM)

It is exciting to see the steamroller starting to move again - after reading how many carriers you have, my goodness - if you hit the KB, you might not even notice....it'd be a small thump underneath the treads.



tocaff -> RE: Moving into Harm's Way (2/20/2009 11:01:31 PM)

I guess you need sat recon of the entire game map and then you might find the KB.  [X(]



Canoerebel -> RE: Moving into Harm's Way (2/21/2009 2:09:28 PM)

9/24/44 and 9/25/44
 
Japan:  For several weeks the Allied strategic bombing campaign hasn't been hitting on all cylinders.  I've had fighter sweeps without bombers and bombers without fighter sweeps.  Consequently, damage has been light, losses relatively high, and John has been feeling his oats judging by his email comments.  Finally, on the 25th everything came together properly.  59 P-47Ds from Tori flew a sweep over Hiroshima/Kure (a base hit only once or twice long ago and therefore on the back-burner) facing 78 Zekes.  The Japs lost 34 fighters and the Allies one.  Then 422 B-29s (6 groups from Shikuka and 4 groups from Changsha) hit the base without facing any fighters; most groups targeting resources (scoring about 213 hits) with a few targeting the Frank factory (46 hits) and Naval Shipbuilding (64 hits).  These industries now look like this:  Resources 88 (213), Frank 3 (46), and Naval Shipbuilding 27 (64).  The short-legged bombers from Toyohara (142 B-24s) hit Toyama's airfield unescorted and destroyed 12 planes on the air and ground while losing 16.  For the day, the Allies scored nearly 700 points on strategic bombing.

SEAC:  Operation Shooting Star is off to a good start, I think.  The Shooting Star invasion force left Singapore on the 24th and took station two hexes east; a small amphibious TF had left the day before and began unloading troops at Muntok (a base on an island one hex north of Palembang).  These moves posed as a threat to the DEI to possibly draw John's attention here.  On the 25th, the Shooting Star invasion force suddenly shifted course NW and ended up a few hexes north of Singapore.  As best I can tell, Jap recon didn't pick them up, which is a surprise.  They will now proceed NW in the general directon of Phnom Penh, then hug the coast up to Haiphong.   They are exposed if John should suddenly decide to send the KB to Vietnam, which seems so unlikely as to be disregarded.  However, I have alot of fighters at Camranh Bay that can provide LRCAP.  The little invasion force at Muntok began landing on the 24th and found elements of a Naval Guard unit that John is bringing in by air.  I probably didn't bring enough to take this island in the short run.  On the 25th, two fairly large Jap air strikes came against the ships at Merak from Batavia and adjacent bases, the Japs losing 27 aircraft to Allied LRCAP (which lost but 2 fighters), scoring a few hits on an AK and two AP.

China:  (1) The move on Singyang has John's attention as he is moving more troops there, apparently also withdawing some of his Ichang garrison.  This part of Shooting Star is primarily meant to "rattle John's cage," but I'd love to take Singyang if possible; (2) The move on Nanchang out of Changsha hasn't elicited a noticeable reaction yet; this too is a diversion; (3) An Allied army continues to gather at Wuchow for the eventual (and real-thing) move on Canton; this army is now 7,000 AV strong, with another 2700 AV on the road from Hue north, plus more trailing all the way back to Bangkok; (4) Engineers at Kangshian (northern tip of Hainan Island) have that base 17% to level two and an EAB from Singapore is about four days away from landing there to lend a hand.  I want this base to level two for LRCAP before I move on Canton/Hong Kong; (5) The amphbious TF that left Singapore and that will be hudding the Indochina coast is perhaps five or six days from Haiphong.  Hong Kong is held by two Jap units and Canton by nine.  I may just go ahead and land the currently loaded infantry (prepped for Swatow) at Hong Kong and then send the empty transports back to Haiphong to pick up the Hong Kong-prepped troops for a second wave.  I'm choosing speed and surprise over preparation.

CenPac:  The American carrier and transport armada that is the other part of Shooting Star is about halfway between Midway and Iwo, steaming quietly.  I don't see any indication that Japanese recon has picked up this force (nothing flying from Marcus, anyhow).  It's been several days since John last sighted my carriers (they were then moving NW from Wake in the general direction of Midway).  I wonder how much he knows or guesses about - or might be in the dark about - this force.  Iwo and Tori remain quiet, and with the approach of the American carriers their security won't be an issue for awhile.  The American bases at Ponape, Eniwetok, Wake, Baker, and Johnston remain quiet.

SWPac:  The Allies are monitoring things in SEAC, China, and CenPac to see if the Allied operations there draw the attention of the KB.  If the coast ever appears clear, ANZAC troops are in position to move forward.

KB:  Still no sign of Jap carriers, which really surprises me.  Essentially the entire map is under Allied surveillance, even if it's just B-29s flying Naval Search missions.  I keep thinking that eventually I'll get a stray, lucky sighting, but so far not a scintilla.  The area that Japan can consider safe, home waters is limited now and probably doesn't even include the Sea of Japan, so that doesn't leave much room for John to hide ships.  The safest and most likely area is probably within a ten hex radius of Talaud Island (an island between Davao and the Celebes) that would include Davao, Cebu, Palau, and the bases of eastern Borneo and the Celebes).

Points: (A) 72,125 (J) 56,400; Ratio:  1.27 to 1; Strategic Points:  12,168.



Canoerebel -> Map of DEI Operations - Sept. 25, 1944 (2/21/2009 2:20:59 PM)

This map shows Allied operations in DEI, but the real focus is troops and ships moving north from Singapore to China.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/84DB44DC155A4034808B60969BF93D66.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> Envelopment of Kahnsien Map - Sept. 25, 1944 (2/21/2009 2:41:10 PM)

The title of this post is meant to deceive John as to the strategic objective of what's going on in China. The true story:

1) The moves on Canton and Hong Kong are the "real thing." If successful, these operations will be followed by moves to take Swatow and other coastal Chinese cities that will put Allied bombers (and ships) in close proximity to Formosa, Okinawa, Southern Japan, and Japan's sea lanes to the DEI.

2) The moves on Singyang and Nanchang are meant as diversions against those cities and to threaten the flanks of Japanese armies at Ichang and Kanhsien. Eventually, though, the Allies will move on Nanchang in force (several thousand AV are moving north from Malaya for this purpose).

3) If Allied moves in China are successful, eventually the Allies will head for Shanghai. These moves will also greatly enhance any future Allied plans to invade Formosa, Okinawa, and/or Japan.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/5BFF4B7348DD493EB421B6258644C606.jpg[/image]



Miller -> RE: Envelopment of Kahnsien Map - Sept. 25, 1944 (2/21/2009 7:23:12 PM)

The KB gets more impotent as each day passes. If I were him I would be looking to force a CV battle soon.......if only to see his ships go down in a blaze of glory. Either that or they will die in port[:-]



Canoerebel -> RE: Envelopment of Kahnsien Map - Sept. 25, 1944 (2/22/2009 2:13:58 PM)

9/26/44 to 9/28/44
 
As massive Allied forces move toward their Operation Shooting Star jumping-off places, things remain blessedly quiet over this three-day period.

Hong Kong Troops:  The British TFs carring the troops bound for Hong Kong will reach Camranh Bay tomorrow, then move to Haiphong.  If everything else is ready to go at that point, they will proceed directly to Hong Kong; if more time is needed to get things set up, they will unload the Swatow-prepped troops at Haiphong and take aboard Hong Kong-prepped troops.  For months, John had nine units in Canton and two in Hong Kong; he's just taken two from Canton and moved them to Hong Kong.  So he's definately alert to the danger.  Yet I don't think Jap recon has picked up the RN carriers and transports since a day or two after they left Singapore.

Canton Troops:  The Allied army at Wuchow started for Canton on the 27th.  It will take a few days for them to advance to the hex in between the two cities.  Not all units have arrived at Wuchow yet (2nd UK Divison, for instance, is still a good week away, maybe longer).  However, with him moving troops to Hong Kong, I want to get to Canton, bombard, and see what he has.  The advance troop moving on Canton will have about 5,500 AV.

Nanchang Troops:  The troops from Changsha are on the move again and will reach the hex adjacent to Nanchang in about three days.  This army isn't strong enough to threaten Nanchang until the substantial reinforcements currently in Indochina arrive.   But it will be a threatening - and therefore hopefully disconcerting - move in conjunction with the others.

Singyang Troops:  The first units have arrived, with more to follow over the next three days.  John has pulled back several units from Ichang to meet this threat.  I don't think I'll have enough to take this city, but the threat in conjunction with the other Allied moves may pose enough of a threat to eventually force John to retreat from his "interior" China bases.

Infrastructure:  The Kiangshang (Hainan Island) airbase is 49% to level two and an EAB will arrive day after tomorrow.  Large nearby airbases include Wuchow, Pakhoi, Haiphong, Hengchow, and Changsha.  The fighters and bombers are in place.  The Allies have been pulverizing the fields at Hong Kong and Canton for weeks now, so they should be neutralized.  My hope is that the RN combat force (with three BBs) will be able to hammer Hong Kong without threat of LBA or the KB for a few days when the invasion commences. 

American Troops:  The American carrier and transport armada will reach Iwo Jima within a week.  I don't think Jap recon has picked up these ships since they began moving west from Midway.  This force's roll is still to be determined.  It may serve as a decoy to take some heat off the Allied moves on Canton/Hong Kong.  Once the Allies take those bases, they should be able to quickly take Swatow.  That, in turn, will give them plenty of airbases in close proximity to Formosa.  I think that's where the American troops are headed, eventually.

SEAC:  I'm pretty sure John thought this was going to be the next Allied target:  DEI.  When American troops landed at Mundok, John vigorously reacted.  He's air-transporting in a Naval Guard unit and sent his CA Chikuma TF; but the Allied ships had already withdrawn.  Allied LBA sank DD Akikaze and damaged one or two other DDs.  4EB continue to hammer Palembang, but tomorrow a large strike will target Batavia.  On the 26th, 29 B-29s from Singapore scored 10 hits against Brunei's oil.

Japan:  The Allies have scheduled an all-out B-29 raid on Takamatsu's resources (8 groups) and heavy industry (2 groups) tomorrow.  This base hasn't been hit before and doesn't have a Frank factory, so I hope I'll catch John by surprise.  A pre-raid sweep from Tori is scheduled, too.

SWPac:  Jap bombers from Timor sank four 3k AKs heading into Darwin.




Canoerebel -> B-29s hit Takamatsu, Japan (2/22/2009 10:55:55 PM)

9/29/44
 
Japan:  Only two of three elements assigned to hit Takamatsu made it.  P-47Ds flew a sweep from Tori Shima, shot down three lonley Jakes, and returned home.  The six B-29 groups from Shikuka stayed home, but the four from Changsha came in and scored well.  Three were targeted on resources - 180 (121) and 451 (150) after the raid.  I'll give the Shikuka groups another chance tomorrow.

Operation Shooting Star:  This has my full attention now, and it seems that John realizes something big is up.  A week ago, the Japs had the following units dispersion - Canton with 9, Hong Kong 2, Swatow 2.  Now it's Canton 6, Hong Kong 4, Swatow 4.  I don't want to face reinforcements, but I don't think John can effectively reinforce now.  The Allies have too much LBA, plus the RN combat ships soon to arrive.   4900 AV advanced to the hex between Wuchow and Canton with lots more to come.  The transports destined to bring troops to Hong Kong are just off the coast from Camranh Bay.  Over at Singyang, the first Allied troops arrived and bombarded, finding two mixed brigades and a smaller unit.  More Jap units seem to be on the way from Ichang, so John's feeling some pressure here too.  Beginning in just a couple of days, China will really be cooking.

American Carriers and Troops:  The American component of Shooting Star is closing on Iwo from the NE.  As best I can tell, the Japs still don't know they're coming as no recon has sighted the ships.

DEI:  A large Allied raid on Batavia knocked out 34 oil and 5 resources.  John is reinforcing his Mundok garrison by barge.

Score:  (A) 72,840 (J) 56,416; Ratio:  1.29 to 1; Strategic Points:  12,732.



paullus99 -> RE: B-29s hit Takamatsu, Japan (2/22/2009 11:50:14 PM)

You've built up some real momentum here - keep it up. Don't give John any breathing space once you've committed - you can really chew him up.

I was thinking - with the number of carriers you have, what about a grand tour of Japan's airbases? I seriously doubt he'll be able to deal with a 1000 F6Fs & assorted other fighters - you could permanently cripple Homeland defense in one stroke.

Just an idea, unless you decide to go ahead & committ to a massive invasion right off the bat.



Canoerebel -> RE: B-29s hit Takamatsu, Japan (2/22/2009 11:52:41 PM)

Shhh, be vewy, vewy quiet.  The thought of combined carrier-strike aircraft, B-17s, B-24s, and B-29s hitting Tokyo, Gumma, Osaka, etc., has crossed my mind...



Canoerebel -> Gyrations (2/23/2009 12:58:32 PM)

9/30/44
 
Jap recon sighted American carriers, Jap troops are on the move all over China, and things should soon get interesting.  The big unkown:  does John want Hong Kong bad enough that he's willing to commit everything to it's defense?

China:  John pulled back to Canton two of the units he had just sent from there to Hong Kong.  Canton has eight, Hong Kong 3.  He's reacting to the advance of the Allied army from Wuchow on Canton.  This force is 6,000 AV with much more trailing as far back as northern Indochina.  Canton is urban and will be tough, but he's also got to worry about Hong Kong.  The Allies have an army of 3100 AV 80% prepped for HK sitting at Haiphong, with more on the way.  I can't carry all of that in one load, but I can in two or perhaps three.  The RN is present with three BBs and John can't match that.  So, what does he do?  To the north, at Singyang, the Allies have 2200 AV and the Japs perhaps 600 with more on the way.  I'll try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow, but it has little chance of success (but creates a hot spot that John needs to attend to).  Kiungshan at the north tip of Hainan Island is 72% to level 2 and will achieve that tomorrow or the next day.

Japan:  204 B-29s from Shikuka hit Takamatsu's resources and heavy industry, following on yesteday's raid from Changsha.  Tak's resources and HI now look like this:  Res 113 (188); HI 391 (210).

CenPac:  Jap recon caught wind of the Allied fleet approaching Iwo.  One Emily reported CVL Bataan, so John knows this is the real thing.  Things remain quiet at other forward Allied bases like Eniwetok, Ponape, Baker, and Johnston.

SWPac:  The ANZAC folks are still waiting to see if the KB will sortie against the Allied carriers; if so, several operations are ready to go.

Allied Reading of Japanese Intentions and Capabilities:  I feel unusually uncertain about where the Japs are and what they will do now.  The KB is still missing in action.  Is John misreading Allied intentions so that he thinks DEI is still in peril and the "real" target?   Of does his think China and/or the American carriers are the real threats, so that the KB is heading that way?  I truly don't know, but fortunately feel that both the American contingent and the British/Chinese contingent and position are strong enough to proceed in the absence of good intel (in the real war, by late '44, I doubt the Allies would have been so totally clueless, but that describes me).

Points:  (A) 73,300 (J) 56,459; Ratio:  1.30 to 1; Strategic:  12,974.  In late '43 and early '44, the Allies were gaining on the Japs at a rate of 2,000 points per month; that increased to 3,000 per month in mid '44; since the Allies drew even in late June and went ahead, their lead has grown at about 5,500 points per month.  This is partly due to taking high value bases like Noumea, Singapore, and Saigon.



castor troy -> RE: Gyrations (2/23/2009 1:41:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/30/44
 
Jap recon sighted American carriers, Jap troops are on the move all over China, and things should soon get interesting.  The big unkown:  does John want Hong Kong bad enough that he's willing to commit everything to it's defense?

China:  John pulled back to Canton two of the units he had just sent from there to Hong Kong.  Canton has eight, Hong Kong 3.  He's reacting to the advance of the Allied army from Wuchow on Canton.  This force is 6,000 AV with much more trailing as far back as northern Indochina.  Canton is urban and will be tough, but he's also got to worry about Hong Kong.  The Allies have an army of 3100 AV 80% prepped for HK sitting at Haiphong, with more on the way.  I can't carry all of that in one load, but I can in two or perhaps three.  The RN is present with three BBs and John can't match that.  So, what does he do?  To the north, at Singyang, the Allies have 2200 AV and the Japs perhaps 600 with more on the way.  I'll try a probing deliberate attack tomorrow, but it has little chance of success (but creates a hot spot that John needs to attend to).  Kiungshan at the north tip of Hainan Island is 72% to level 2 and will achieve that tomorrow or the next day.

Japan:  204 B-29s from Shikuka hit Takamatsu's resources and heavy industry, following on yesteday's raid from Changsha.  Tak's resources and HI now look like this:  Res 113 (188); HI 391 (210).

CenPac:  Jap recon caught wind of the Allied fleet approaching Iwo.  One Emily reported CVL Bataan, so John knows this is the real thing.  Things remain quiet at other forward Allied bases like Eniwetok, Ponape, Baker, and Johnston.

SWPac:  The ANZAC folks are still waiting to see if the KB will sortie against the Allied carriers; if so, several operations are ready to go.

Allied Reading of Japanese Intentions and Capabilities:  I feel unusually uncertain about where the Japs are and what they will do now.  The KB is still missing in action.  Is John misreading Allied intentions so that he thinks DEI is still in peril and the "real" target?   Of does his think China and/or the American carriers are the real threats, so that the KB is heading that way?  I truly don't know, but fortunately feel that both the American contingent and the British/Chinese contingent and position are strong enough to proceed in the absence of good intel (in the real war, by late '44, I doubt the Allies would have been so totally clueless, but that describes me).

Points:  (A) 73,300 (J) 56,459; Ratio:  1.30 to 1; Strategic:  12,974.  In late '43 and early '44, the Allies were gaining on the Japs at a rate of 2,000 points per month; that increased to 3,000 per month in mid '44; since the Allies drew even in late June and went ahead, their lead has grown at about 5,500 points per month.  This is partly due to taking high value bases like Noumea, Singapore, and Saigon.



is Canton an urban hex in this mod? If so, then 1500-2000 av could easily hold against 6000 attacker av, not even to think about forts... and if you land at HongKong and don´t take the base quickly I guess he could move his units there within two days...


edit: sorry, missed that you´ve already mentioned Canton being urban... [>:]



Canoerebel -> RE: Gyrations (2/23/2009 2:38:13 PM)

I'll soon have 8,000 AV at Canton, and probably 3,500 to 4,000 at Hong Kong.  The Allies also have the RN and control of the skies, with a heck of alot of bombers nearby.  Canton is pretty worthless once I take Hong Kong, and Hong Kong is my real objective.



Canoerebel -> RE: Gyrations (2/24/2009 1:46:59 AM)

10/1/44 and 10/2/44
 
Operation Shooting Star begins in earnest tonight.

Hong Kong:  The RN bombardment TF with two BBs will hit Hong Kong tonight, covered by LRCAP from Kuingshan (just went to level two), Pakhoi, and Wuchow.  The transport TFs will remain one hex outside Hong Kong to see what the mine situation looks like.  The carrier TF (three CVEs and CVL Hermes) will take refuge near Haiphong just to stay out of harm's way should things heat up - they aren't needed if the KB doesn't appear, and they would be overwhelmed if it does.  The troops on the transport are prepped for Swatow, while the Hong Kong-prepped troops are at Haiphong.  I chose speed and surprise over preparation.  I intend to land this first group and head back to Haiphong for the others.  But events will begin to dictate what happens from here on.

China:  The Allied probing attack at Sinyang on the 1st proved that this little Chinese army won't take this base unless the Japs get cold feet and withdraw.  Although outnumbering the Japs 2300 AV to about 650 AV, the attack came off at 0:1 and didn't touch the nine forts.  The main body of the army moving on Canton should arrive there tomorrow, a nice compliment to the Hong Kong bombardment.  John doesn't have any strike aircraft at HK, Canton, or Swatow (primarily because the first two have been hammered lately by Allied bombers).  I think his closest bombers are on Formosa.

Japan:  The Japanese tried an ill-advised attack on Tori Shima.  Two waves of bombers and fighters got eaten alive by the CAP of 18 Corsairs and 72 P-47Ds.  The Japs lost 150 aircraft (including 81 Frank) to 34 Allied fighters.

CenPac:  The American carriers and transports are steaming slowly SW toward Iwo and will near that island in about two days.  I don't know whether they'll halt there momentarily or continue on toward Formosa to serve as a diversion for the Brits at Hong Kong.

SWPac:  Playing a hunch that John will move the KB either to strike those Brits or the Americans, the Aussies and Kiwis are getting into the act shortly.



Canoerebel -> China Gyrations (2/24/2009 2:32:59 PM)

10/3/44
 
Hong Kong:  Off to a good start, but holding my breath since my RN combat ships are very much in harm's way.  The bombardment force came in on the night of the 2nd/3rd, inflicted 500 casualties, destroyed 17 guns, and sank three ships.  LRCAP over the TF intercepted plenty of Tinas and other transports probably bringing in reinforcements (the first sign that John is really scrambling to handle things in China).  A scattering of small Jap raids tried for the transports off the coast of Hong Kong, coming from Formosa and Aparri, and John lost about 20 aircraft in return for a hit on one AP.  There are no mines at HK.  The transports come in tonight, the RN combat ships remain in place, I've strengthened the CAP a bit, and I'm hoping the KB doesn't show up for at least a few days.

China:  All heck has broken loose as John has units all over the place.  He's sending troops from Swatow toward Canton; he's reinforced Singyang from Ichang, and other units are on interior roads in many places.  The move on Singyang was meant to draw John's attention and to threaten Ichang's flank.  I think it worked.  Recon shows Ichang empty with the units a road to the east heading either toward Singyang or evacuating.  Tomorrow, 50th Indian paratroops arrive at a base in SE China, so I've moved Dakotas there.  If Ichang remains empty tomorrow, I'll try a para-assault the next day, to be followed by air transport of an Indian division into the city.  It would be awfully sweet to pick up the city by flanking, because I certainly wasn't going to get it any other way (at least any time soon).  At Canton, an advance 1900 AV has arrived with alot more to follow tomorrow.   I don't have a chance of taking this city in the short term unless I first take HK on unless John divides his army to meet multiple threats.  About 300 Allied bombers hit the airfield at Swatow just to make sure it remains empty.  The threat of the KB is enough; I don't want to face close-range LBA too.  (I'd say the Allies achieved strategic surprise in China; it's fun to watch the Japanese scramble to defend).

Japan: The Allies will try a big raid on Tokyo tomorrow, if everybody flies as scheduled. 

CenPac:  The American carriers and other ships continue on their approach to Iwo.

SWPac:  Where John recently had a big air presence in the Solomons, there isn't a plane in sight now (I think John had been contemplating a major battle in this region).  There haven't even been any recon flights from Port Moresby, Rabaul, Lunga, or Luganville in several weeks.  I think the Japs have focused their attention elsewhere, so I'm going to try a surprise invasion.   I've had a fairly strong ANZAC amphibious group slowly approaching Port Moresby to feel things out.  I don't think the Japs are aware of these TFs and they are to begin landing tomorrow.  This will be Operation Mercury.

SEAC:  Allied bombers continue to paste Palembang; the Japs have reinforced Mundok and will boot out the small American unit shortly.  I'll probably be back in numbers "one of these days" - not too long if the Allies are successful in taking Hong Kong, Canton, and Swatow.

Edited to Add: P.S. Jap recon picked up 2nd UK Division four hexes west of Canton; if John hadn't been sure this was the real thing yet, that probably cemented things.



FOW -> RE: Gyrations (2/24/2009 4:18:35 PM)

You have stated your main target is Hong Kong.
As I see it you don't need the 12k+ AV needed to take Canton. Put enough units in Canton to keep his attention, the urban bonus works for you too. You need to take H-K ASAP - once you do John won't be able to move units from Canton to H-K - if you don't he can move, say a Div, and prolong things (i'm sure there are level 9 forts everywhere by now). With H-K Allied and a drive on Swatow, John will face the prospect of his army in Canton being isolated.



Canoerebel -> RE: Gyrations (2/24/2009 4:48:41 PM)

Yeah, that's the plan. 

John should be worried because he'll have a tough time reinforcing SE China by sea (the Allies have too much LBA), and interior movements take time due to the bad road network.   So I'm hoping the simultaneous attacks will prod John into making a bad move somewhere or other.  I think Ichang is the first.  But Hong Kong is the real key to this campaign.



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