Gen.Hoepner -> Strategical thoughts (11/4/2007 8:37:33 AM)
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With the new year arriving fast, it's time to analyze the overall situation. By 26th of Dec '41 Japan has conquered Java, Sumatra, Borneo, Celebes, Timor, Rabaul, the east coast of Guinea (Hollandia, Wewak etc.) and has few footholds in Tarawa, Lunga, Lungaville and Port Blair in the Bengal Bay (where he has based his Mavis/Emilies) and in Malaya he's now approaching to siege Singapore. As you know my opponent left Luzon behind and moved only few stepts in Burma (Tavoy and Victoria point). In the Pacific was unable to conquer Wake which is now becoming an american stronghold base, having been reinforced with troops, planes, guns and soon with subs. In China the allies are advancing (and this is the only theatre that gives few satisfactions), having conquered Nanchang and sorrounded Ichang (see maps above). In Russia he keeps massing troops at Mutakiang, even if the "air ball" indicator says that he's not massing planes here, so an invasion is not so close as we thought. However, these statements mean that by the end of the year he can has now to choose which will be the next step. His options: 1-Consolidate the actual perimeter in DEI-SRA and concentrate in the PI and moving his KB in the pacific. 2-Pack everything and go for Oz (Darwin or Perth). 3-Pack everything and go for India 4-move his crack divisions to HK and move in inland china. 5-pack everything and go for Russia. Let's analyze each of them. 1)- It will be the best choice for me. Moving his troops to Luzon will take time. if he's in Luzon means that i can consolidate my positions in the Pac (Wake, Canton, Palmyra, Pago Pago, Suva and Noumea), being ready to face him when he will finally try to expand this area of his perimeter. I do not consider this option as the more likely. If i was him i'd let Luzon back again and move everything elsewhere. if the pacific is the choice to go, then i'll move to Suva-Noumea, forcing me to defend these far away places with my CVs that are not yet able to face the dreaded KB. 2)-Oz has some big supply problems. As you know fuel and supplies lack in the continent. The convoys from the U.S. are stillfar away and the americans are using their main assets to defend their positions rather than to reinforce the australian allied. Darwin is defended by 220 AVs, but being a plain hex, even a reinforced japanese division, with some eng, artillery and some BBs supporting could take it. I'm moving to the Darwin area - Via ALice Spirng- 2 Aus. Divisions and some more minor units but it takes forever to get there and if he moves now i won't be able to defend my positions here. The other option is Perth. Here it's probably a more interesting target for the japs. Some HI, some Res and a good port with facilities. Plus, conquering Perth and the bases around it, he would close the door from US to India. The only point is that taking perth without taking Darwin will mean for him to have a non-acceptable instable position because his flank will be threatened by this allied base. So if he goes for Oz he must take both the north and the west coast of Austr. 3)-India. It's still my best bet. I'd go for it. Always. Capturing India you both ensure the Empire a whole new world of oil and resources (Plus HI) and you kick out of the war the brits, while securing at the same time the whole left flank of the empire. At this very early stage of the war the brits are far from being ready to face such a threat. Not a single british division is present in the area and the 18th, which is the first to come, will arrive in 15 days. The RN lacks of everything (1 BB,1 BC, 2 CAs and a bunch of old CLs but very few DDs and only 1 CV). The RAF cannot upgrade its old-fashioned planes and should face an invasion with the blenheims and the buffalos. However my defensive plan (which is far more complex to elaborate than the one for Oz) remains the same since first day of war: 2 indian equilibrated armies, deployed one in Dacca (which is my major base in the Bangladesh area) and one in Hyldebarand (which is the other major operative base for western India, both of them ready to pop in as soon as he lands. However i don't think i'll be able to hold the ground if he decides to come here. Too few units for such a great sub-continent, too few planes, too few ships. 4)-Please do this!!!![:D] Only a fool would waste this "momentum" to go for China.... 5)- It's still a tasty option for him i guess. Russia can give a great number of VPs if conquered. You can win the war if you defeat the ruskies...but if he choses Vladivostok instead of Bozrya, well, my chances of surviving an direct attack are greater and i firmly believe i can hold. A whole different thing if he goes for Bozrya...this can be nasty for me. However it will all depends how Russian air force will react...if it can hold the ground and inflict some losses to the invaders in the first days of war things can change fast....
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